Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Analyst Conference has commenced, signaling a potential bull market for A-shares as global capital is expected to flow into the market [1][5]. Group 1 - The 2025 Analyst Conference features over a hundred industry research leaders, public and private fund managers, and authoritative scholars gathering to explore investment truths that transcend market cycles [1][5]. - Lu Ying, Vice President of the Research and Institutional Business Committee at Guotai Junan Securities, attended the conference and served as an award presenter at the 7th Sina Finance Golden Unicorn Analyst Awards [1][5].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese securities industry is undergoing profound changes driven by the central government's call to cultivate first-class investment banks and institutions, with a focus on mergers and acquisitions and accelerated internationalization to enhance competitiveness [1] Group 1: Industry Transformation - The wave of mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry aims to enhance comprehensive strength through deep integration, moving beyond simple scale accumulation to achieve synergistic effects [1] - The merger of Guotai Junan Securities and Haitong Securities exemplifies this trend, resulting in significant revenue and profit growth, with a 101.6% increase in revenue to 45.892 billion yuan and a 131.8% increase in net profit to 22.074 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [2] - The consensus in the industry is that cultivating first-class investment banks is a long-term goal, requiring firms to focus on their core responsibilities and enhance their functions [1][2] Group 2: Internationalization and Market Opportunities - The internationalization of Chinese securities firms is accelerating, with overseas asset scales expanding and international business contributing significantly to profits; for instance, CICC's overseas business revenue reached 6.877 billion HKD (approximately 6.29 billion yuan), accounting for about half of its total revenue [2] - The demand in the Hong Kong and Asia-Pacific markets presents shared opportunities for many securities firms, with a focus on wealth management and cross-border derivative businesses [3][6] - Policies facilitating international operations and the emphasis on building first-class investment banks create a favorable environment for overseas business development [5][6] Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Industry Ecosystem - The new "National Nine Articles" outlines clear goals for the development of first-class investment banks by 2035, transitioning securities firms from traditional intermediaries to key players in serving the real economy [4] - Recent regulatory changes, such as the revised Major Asset Restructuring Management Measures, aim to enhance the merger and acquisition landscape, promoting resource concentration towards institutions with strong comprehensive service capabilities [4] - The classification evaluation system encourages a shift from scale-focused growth to quality and efficiency, supporting differentiated development among smaller firms [5] Group 4: High-Quality Development Goals - The securities industry is expected to enhance development quality during the 14th Five-Year Plan, aiming for a transition from large to strong and from local to global [6] - Headquartered comprehensive securities firms are likely to capture market share across various business lines, leading to significant growth in scale and profitability [6] - The focus on internationalization and the establishment of unique advantages in wealth management and retail trading will be crucial for the industry's evolution [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd., has announced the convening of its second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders for the year 2025, scheduled for December 29, 2025, at 14:00 in Shanghai [2][14]. Meeting Details - The meeting will be held at Room 405, No. 768 Nanjing West Road, Shanghai [2][13]. - Voting will be conducted through a combination of on-site and online methods using the Shanghai Stock Exchange's online voting system [2][3]. - The online voting will be available on the day of the meeting from 9:15 to 15:00, with specific trading time slots for the voting platform [3]. Voting Procedures - Shareholders can vote via the Shanghai Stock Exchange's online voting system or through designated trading terminals [6][7]. - The company will provide a reminder service for small and medium-sized investors to ensure they can participate in the voting process [7]. - Shareholders holding multiple accounts can aggregate their voting rights across all accounts [8]. Meeting Attendance - Shareholders registered by the close of trading on the registration date are entitled to attend the meeting [9]. - The meeting will also be open to the company's directors, senior management, and appointed lawyers [10]. - Registration for the meeting will take place from 13:00 to 14:00 on the day of the meeting [13]. Proxy Voting - Shareholders may appoint proxies to attend and vote on their behalf, with specific requirements for documentation [16][18]. - The proxy must present a valid identification and a written authorization from the shareholder [18].

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通证券发布研究报告称，服务消费景气提升，科技硬件延续涨价。上周 (11.24-11.30)中观景气表现分化，值得关注：1)内需景气线索有所增多，冰雪出行和电影市场景气度显 著提升，或反映地产和耐用品消费收缩之余，"吃喝玩乐"相关的服务型和大众品消费复苏趋势持续显 现。2)新兴科技行业延续高景气，但短期AI泡沫叙事影响下，TMT硬件景气增长的持续性有赖于AI应 用取得积极进展。后续重点关注AI应用商业化进展。3)建工需求偏弱，内需资源品大多偏弱震荡，海外 降息预期再度升温，国际金属价格大幅上涨;受铁矿增产影响，干散运价格环比延续提升。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 下游消费：服务消费景气显著提升，地产耐用品仍承压。1)服务消费：国内冰雪游景气度显著提升，根 据同程旅行，广州-哈尔滨26年元旦机票均价较25年11月提升约56%，主因国内气温下降，居民冰雪消 费情绪提升;电影票房同/环比+326.7%/+355.7%，主因引进爆款新片上映拉动观影需求增长。2)地产：30 大中城市商品房成交面积同比-34.3%，其中一线/二线/三线城市商品房成交面积同 比-31.6%/-33.9%/-40.7%， ...

Core Insights - The article focuses on optimizing a timing model based on price and volume factors, addressing issues of instability, signal volatility, and the reliability of single signals [1][2]. Factor Selection - The model employs a dual standard of group IC and threshold settings to tackle the challenge of unstable effectiveness, ensuring that selected factors can consistently predict outcomes across different value ranges [2]. Model Training and Signal Generation - A strategy of random grouping and independent training is used to filter noise and balance signal robustness. The signal generation process involves rolling smoothing and multi-group voting to ensure accurate and stable timing signals [3]. - Backtesting from 2019 to September 2025 shows significant improvements over benchmarks, with a 1-day signal yielding an annualized return of 3.61% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.12, outperforming the benchmark [3].

Core Viewpoint - Doubao has launched a preview version of its AI mobile assistant, exploring the empowerment of mobile phones by AI large models and promoting the formation of Agent forms, indicating that the era of AI mobile phones is approaching, alongside a rapidly emerging rich edge hardware ecosystem [1] Group 1: AI Mobile Assistant Features - The Doubao AI mobile assistant functions as a system-level Agent capable of executing complex commands, creating a complete loop from information search to processing and cross-application communication [2] - It achieves deep integration with the operating system, allowing higher system permissions than a single app, enabling it to call upon underlying hardware capabilities and system services [2] - Users can activate the assistant through a sidebar, physical keys, or voice commands without needing to click on icons, allowing it to overlay any interface without interrupting ongoing app processes [2] Group 2: User Interaction and Capabilities - The Doubao assistant can "understand" the content on the user's current screen and engage in dialogue or perform operations based on that content, such as generating replies or assisting with requests from WeChat friends [2] - It can recognize UI elements on the screen and simulate human actions like clicking, swiping, and inputting, enabling complex cross-application tasks, such as comparing prices across shopping platforms or organizing travel plans [2] Group 3: Market Positioning and Ecosystem Development - The era of comprehensive AI mobile phones is imminent, with Doubao providing opportunities for brand manufacturers to achieve AI equity and leapfrog competitors [3] - Doubao does not manufacture mobile hardware but collaborates with phone manufacturers at the operating system level, creating a business model where "model companies provide AI brains + phone manufacturers provide hardware carriers" [3] - This model allows mid to low-end phone manufacturers, who may struggle to invest heavily in self-developed large models, to enhance user AI experiences and strengthen their competitiveness in the AI era [3] - The rich edge hardware ecosystem is accelerating, with Doubao's capabilities offering real usability for edge devices like AI glasses, TWS earbuds, and AI Pins, enabling complex task execution through deep integration with mobile operating systems [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company is committed to enhancing its integrity culture and management system, which is essential for its high-quality development and integration since its merger and restructuring [1]. Group 1: Strengthening Party Leadership and Integrity Culture - The company’s party committee plays a crucial role in guiding and implementing strict party governance, focusing on integrating party work with integrity practices [2]. - Special actions have been initiated to address issues such as violations of central regulations, reinforcing a strong message of accountability [2]. - Educational programs have been established to promote integrity culture among all employees, including the revision of compliance manuals and annual signing of integrity commitments [2]. Group 2: Improving Internal Control Management - The company has developed a comprehensive integrity management system, incorporating integrity goals into its corporate governance framework [3]. - A leadership group for integrity management has been established, ensuring oversight across all levels of the organization [3]. - Regular self-assessments and risk evaluations are conducted to identify and mitigate integrity risks within various departments [3]. Group 3: Focusing on Key Areas for Enhanced Integrity Control - The company is implementing targeted measures to address integrity risks in investment banking, including stricter due diligence processes and project evaluations [4]. - A management system for employee investment behavior has been established, ensuring compliance through pre-approval and post-check mechanisms [4]. - Financial discipline is being enforced to control risks associated with expense reimbursements and procurement processes [4]. Group 4: Cultivating a Positive Integrity Culture - The company integrates the "Five Musts and Five Must Nots" of Chinese financial culture into its new cultural framework, embedding integrity as a core value [5]. - Continuous educational initiatives are being conducted to raise awareness and promote integrity among employees through various platforms [5]. - A youth-led integrity culture promotion team has been formed to enhance grassroots engagement and education on integrity practices [5].

Group 1 - The report highlights that Japan's bond market experienced its most severe sell-off since 1999, driven by a combination of fiscal expansion, central bank policy shifts, and supply-demand imbalances [6][7][8] - The Japanese government's economic stimulus plan of 21.3 trillion yen (approximately 3.5% of GDP) raised concerns about debt sustainability, leading to increased selling pressure in the bond market [6][7] - The Bank of Japan's reduction in long-term bond purchases exacerbated supply pressures, with the 30-year bond yield reaching a historic high of 3.26% [7][8] Group 2 - The report identifies common characteristics of global bond market volatility, noting that developed markets have also experienced significant adjustments in response to central bank policy signals [11][12] - In the UK, a crisis of fiscal credibility led to a surge in 30-year gilt yields to the highest levels since 1998, reflecting concerns over government debt sustainability [12] - Australia's bond market saw a sharp increase in yields following unexpected inflation data, indicating a shift in market expectations regarding interest rate movements [13][15] Group 3 - The report discusses the vulnerabilities of emerging markets, highlighting that their bond markets are particularly sensitive to changes in central bank policies, leading to amplified volatility [20][21] - Argentina's recent crisis exemplifies this vulnerability, with a significant rise in sovereign debt risk premiums amid concerns over fiscal sustainability [21][22] - The report notes that emerging markets face challenges due to shallow liquidity and reliance on foreign capital, which can lead to rapid capital outflows in response to policy shifts [20][23] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the importance of balancing fiscal expansion, central bank operations, and market absorption capacity in the context of Japan's bond market [28][29] - It suggests that while Japan's experience offers lessons, significant differences exist in capital account management and monetary policy tools between Japan and other countries [28][29] - The report warns that ongoing fiscal stimulus in China could lead to reassessments of long-term interest rate levels, particularly if nominal growth does not meet expectations [28][30] Group 5 - The report outlines potential scenarios for Japan's bond market, particularly in light of the upcoming Bank of Japan policy meeting, where tensions between fiscal stimulus and monetary tightening may influence market reactions [33][34] - It notes that the yield curve could steepen if interest rate hikes materialize, but economic data surprises could limit long-term yield increases [34][35] - The report highlights the differentiated risk profiles of various bond maturities, with longer-duration bonds facing greater price volatility in a low liquidity environment [35][36]

□上交所发布数据显示，2025年前三季度，沪市新增资产重组单数达602家次，其中重大资产重组新增 76家次，同比增长117%，合计交易金额超4000亿元 □Wind统计数据显示，以独立财务顾问口径计算，截至目前，今年获受理并购重组项目数量排名靠前的 券商依次是华泰联合（11）、中信证券（10）、中信建投（10）、国泰海通（9）、中金公司（7），头 部券商优势明显 据上交所此前发布的数据，自"并购六条"发布以来，并购重组活跃度显著提升。2025年前三季度，沪市 新增资产重组单数达602家次，其中重大资产重组新增76家次，同比增长117%，合计交易金额超4000亿 元，远超去年同期。 华安证券投行部相关负责人对上海证券报记者表示，自"并购六条"发布后，监管层不断通过简化审核流 程、创新支付手段、明确私募基金重组锁定期"反向挂钩"等举措，降低企业并购成本与难度。2025年相 关规则进一步修订后，市场活力被充分激发。 在A股并购重组市场生态从"量变"到"质变"的过程中，产业整合"挑大梁"，科创属性成为本轮并购潮中 最鲜明的标签。据国联民生承销保荐统计，截至今年10月末，自"并购六条"发布以来新增披露的资产收 购类重组 ...

Core Viewpoint - Multiple factors support the performance of Chinese equities, maintaining a tactical overweight view on A/H shares [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Global risk appetite has significantly declined, leading to increased asset volatility and panic selling, which has greatly released micro trading risks [1] - The importance of economic growth at the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan is highlighted, with an approaching policy window period suggesting the market may establish new expectations [1] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The regulatory authorities show strong determination and action plans to stabilize the capital market in the short term [1] Group 3: Valuation and Investment Outlook - Factors that previously caused valuation discounts in the stock market have been alleviated, with tail risks decreasing and the stabilization of RMB assets [1] - The Chinese capital market is in a cycle of valuation recovery and significant development, with potential for substantial upside [1] - Chinese equities offer a higher risk-return profile compared to other major asset classes [1]