美联储9月能否降息主要取决于7-8月经济数据 华泰证券研报表示，鲍威尔讲话未能提供9月降息的指引，发言偏鹰派。基本面方面，鲍威尔强调就业 市场较为稳健（solid），但承认存在下行风险。利率指引方面，鲍威尔未对9月降息给出明确指引，强 调降息决策取决于后续数据。 往前看，美联储9月能否降息主要取决于7-8月经济数据。维持美联储仍 有可能在9-12月降息两次的判断。 但是，如果就业和通胀数据强于预期，美联储年内降息预期或进一 步回撤。近期关注周五（8月1日）将公布的新增非农就业数据。 免责声明 以上观点来自相关机构，不代表天天基金的观点，不对观点的准确性和完整性做任何保证。 收益率数据仅供参考，过往业绩和走势风格不预示未来表现，不构成投资建议。转引的相关 观点均来自相关机构或公开媒体渠道 不代表天天基金的观点 天天基金不对观点的准确性 GUIDE 摘要 中原证券：短期面临技术性调整压力，但中期上行趋势未改； 中信证券：A股增量市场确立，资金共识将聚焦两大方向 ； 华泰证券：美联储9月能否降息主要取决于7- 8月经济数据。 中原证券 短期面临技术性调整压力，但中期上行趋势未改 中原证券认为， 当前，A股市场已进入 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange announced the listing of Huatai Securities Co., Ltd.'s 2025 short-term corporate bonds (fifth phase) for professional investors on July 30 [1][2] - The bonds will be listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange starting from July 31, 2025, under the name "25 Huatai S5" and the code "243436" [2] - The trading methods for these bonds include matched transactions, click transactions, inquiry transactions, competitive bidding transactions, and negotiated transactions [2] Group 2 - According to China Clearing rules, these bonds can participate in pledged repurchase transactions [2]

Core Insights - The 2025 WAIC conference in Shanghai marks a significant milestone for the Robotaxi industry, transitioning from "demonstration" to "commercialization" [1] Policy Developments - On July 26, Shanghai released the "Shanghai High-Level Autonomous Driving Leading Area 'Mosu Zhixing' Action Plan," which outlines the mass production timeline and scaling goals for L4 autonomous driving [1] - By 2025, the entire Pudong area will be opened up, providing a globally leading complex application scenario for large cities [1] Commercialization Efforts - Shanghai has issued its first "demonstration operation" license, allowing for commercial trial operations, which will accelerate the establishment of a commercial closed loop for L4 companies [1] Investment Opportunities - There is a recommendation to focus on core technology solution providers, scene application integrators, and high-growth hardware suppliers [1]

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities published a research report indicating that Laopu Gold has released a positive profit forecast, expecting revenue of approximately 12 billion to 12.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 241% to 255% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Laopu Gold's net profit is projected to be around 2.23 billion to 2.28 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 279% to 288% [1] - The strong growth in the first half of the year is primarily attributed to contributions from both online and offline existing stores [1] Group 2: Expansion and Growth Drivers - New large stores, including those at Shanghai Hongqiao Henglong and Singapore's first store, as well as Shanghai IFC, opened in May and June, are expected to significantly contribute to incremental performance in the second half of the year [1] - The company maintains a competitive advantage and high growth momentum, leading to a sustained "buy" rating with a target price of 1,200 HKD, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 38.5 times for 2025 [1]

Group 1: Investment Trends in Chinese Assets - Since July, five large overseas Chinese stock ETFs have attracted over $2.753 billion in investments, indicating a growing interest from foreign capital [1] - As of July 25, 2025, the cumulative trading volume of Korean retail investors in Chinese stocks (including A-shares and Hong Kong stocks) reached $5.764 billion, making China the second-largest overseas investment destination for Korean investors [2] Group 2: Performance of Chinese Stock ETFs - The MSCI China ETF-iShares saw its assets grow to $7.187 billion, a 12.38% increase from the end of June [1] - The China Overseas Internet ETF-KraneShares increased its assets by 20% to $7.648 billion [1] - The Direxion 3x Long FTSE China ETF's assets rose by 14.13% to $1.253 billion [1] - The Deutsche Bank-Jaishin CSI 300 A-share ETF's assets grew by 10.54% to $2.108 billion [1] - The iShares China Large-Cap ETF's assets increased by 5.32% to $6.53 billion [1] Group 3: Positive Outlook on Chinese Assets - Goldman Sachs expressed optimism about the value re-evaluation of Chinese assets, citing robust GDP growth and a recovering Hong Kong IPO market as key factors [3] - The MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index reached near four-year highs, indicating a potential 11% upside in the next 12 months according to Goldman Sachs [3] - Allianz's research department noted that the current valuation of Chinese stocks shows significant discount compared to historical averages, suggesting substantial room for value re-evaluation [4]

Group 1: AI Integration in Finance - Huatai Securities is exploring the deep integration of AI with business scenarios to promote digital transformation in finance [1] - The company has developed the "Taiwei" large model platform, which combines heterogeneous computing power, large model operation management, and application development [1] - The focus is on enhancing intelligent customer service capabilities in investment research and banking [1] Group 2: Evolution of AI Paradigms - The development paradigm of AI is shifting from self-supervised pre-training to reinforcement learning post-training due to data growth bottlenecks [3] - In quantitative investment, the transition from traditional manual modeling to AI modeling is significantly improving the efficiency of financial model development and deployment [3] - End-to-end modeling and general base pre-trained models are creating opportunities for quantitative investment by reducing reliance on traditional factors and allowing for low-cost cross-market strategy migration [3] Group 3: AI Agents Reshaping Financial Services - The AI empowerment model is evolving from "human + intelligent assistant" to "human + multiple intelligent agents," enhancing team collaboration [5] - AI can significantly replace current employee tasks in certain scenarios, such as automated investment advisory services [5] - Successful implementation of AI in financial institutions relies on effective data governance and open collaboration between financial institutions and technology service providers [5][6] Group 4: Future of AI in Hardware - AI servers are expected to replace smartphones as the largest category of technology hardware, driven by the growth of AI applications [11] - The development of AI agents requires higher demands for computing power and infrastructure, with current limitations in power grid infrastructure and data center land availability [11] - The physical AI development has not met expectations due to the complexity and high cost of data acquisition in the physical world [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant advancements and applications of AI technology in the securities industry, showcased by leading brokerage firms at the 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference [2]. Group 1: Citic Securities - Citic Securities launched the first market-level AI system for market value management, named CapitAI-Link, which combines AI algorithms with market value management to provide personalized decision support for listed companies [4]. - The firm is also advancing its AI digital employee system, which aims to enhance efficiency and collaboration in financial services by providing each employee with digital assistants, thereby increasing productivity [4]. Group 2: CICC (China International Capital Corporation) - CICC presented its self-developed digital investment research platform, "CICC Insight," at the conference, emphasizing the role of AI in driving intelligent investment research [6][10]. - The company has supported over 50 companies listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, with a total financing scale exceeding 200 billion yuan, accounting for about 20% of the total IPO financing on the board [9]. Group 3: Citic Jinsheng - Citic Jinsheng released a deep research report titled "AI New Era: Forge Ahead," which discusses the evolution of AI large models and their implications across the industry [11]. - The report outlines the development of AI models and applications, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive understanding of the AI industry from foundational infrastructure to end-user applications [12]. Group 4: Huatai Securities - Huatai Securities focused on investment opportunities in the agent economy during its forum, highlighting the potential of AI agents to operate continuously and interact more rapidly than humans [14]. - The report indicates that the AI chip market for data centers is projected to reach 178.2 billion dollars in 2024, reflecting a 77% year-on-year growth, surpassing the markets for PC and smartphone chips [15].

Group 1: AI and Financial Technology Integration - Major securities firms showcased their latest achievements in AI and financial technology at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) held from July 26 to 29, 2025, in Shanghai [1] - Notable reports included a 400,000-word deep research report by CITIC Securities and various studies by Huatai Securities and CICC focusing on AI applications and digital investment research platforms [1] - The event highlighted the acceleration of digital transformation in the industry, with AI expected to expand the business boundaries of securities firms and enhance industry competitiveness [1] Group 2: Equity Fund Performance - In the past year, 54 equity funds achieved over 100% returns, reflecting a rebound in the A-share market and strong performance in the Hong Kong stock market [2] - The average return for equity funds was 30.93%, while QDII equity funds averaged 36.74%, with the CSI 300 and Hang Seng indices rising by 21.41% and 49.3%, respectively [2] - The surge in high-performing funds indicates a recovery in market risk appetite, which is likely to boost activity in the securities and wealth management sectors [2] Group 3: National Securities Acquisition - Guosen Securities plans to acquire 96.08% of Wanhua Securities for a transaction price of 5.192 billion yuan, adjusting the share issuance price to 8.25 yuan per share [3] - The number of shares to be issued was revised from 604 million to 629 million, representing 6.14% of the total share capital post-issuance [3] - This acquisition is expected to enhance Guosen's competitive position and may lead to increased consolidation within the brokerage sector [3] Group 4: Board Changes at Guosen Securities - Guosen Securities announced the appointment of Hu Hao as a non-independent director and the election of Yi Longxin as an independent director [4] - The management changes may lead to strategic optimization and improved governance structure within the company [4] - The ongoing reforms in the capital market and the stable fundamentals of the brokerage industry may foster a more positive market sentiment [4]

Core Viewpoint - The approval of three glyphosate products by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is expected to increase demand for glyphosate, particularly in the cultivation of herbicide-resistant cotton and soybeans [1] Industry Summary - Glyphosate is primarily used in the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina for herbicide-resistant genetically modified seeds [1] - The production capacity of glyphosate is concentrated in China, with a high industry concentration and certain difficulties in expanding production [1] - Currently, glyphosate prices are at a near seven-year low, but demand is anticipated to recover gradually due to the U.S. approval, increased planting areas in Brazil, and overseas inventory replenishment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) showcased advancements in AI and fintech from leading brokerages, highlighting the rapid evolution and application of AI technologies across various sectors [1][2]. Group 1: AI Development Trends - AI large models are evolving towards being more powerful, efficient, and reliable, with a significant increase in reasoning model depth and an explosion of intelligent agent models expected by 2025 [4][6]. - The report emphasizes that 2025 will be a pivotal year for AI application acceleration, with a much faster penetration rate compared to the internet era, particularly in B-end applications [4][6]. - The AI industry is witnessing a shift towards a comprehensive understanding of the AI vertical industry chain, from foundational computing infrastructure to application scenarios [6][8]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The AI agent economy is emerging as a key investment opportunity, with the market for AI applications expected to grow significantly, driven by the increasing interaction speed between AI agents [10][12]. - The global data center market for AI chips is projected to reach $178.2 billion by 2024, indicating a 77% year-on-year growth, highlighting the shift in market dynamics towards AI hardware [11][12]. - The report from Zhongjin Company discusses the dual scale effects of AI development, suggesting that China can leverage its talent and market potential to overcome computational limitations [14]. Group 3: Company Innovations - Zhongxin Securities introduced the first AI algorithm and market value management platform, CapitAI-Link, aimed at enhancing internal employee efficiency through AI digital employees [16][18]. - The AI digital employees at Zhongxin Securities are designed to improve collaboration in financial services, covering various roles from travel assistance to wealth management [17][18]. - Huatai Securities focused on the practical applications of AI agents, emphasizing the need for investment in AI technologies that can operate continuously and interact more rapidly than humans [9][10].