Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut, with projections indicating an additional 50 basis points cut by year-end, aligning with market expectations [1] - Short-term, the rate cut may lead to a "sell the fact" pressure on gold prices, as the benefits of the cut have been fully priced in [1] - The current rate cut is characterized as a preemptive measure, with historical reference suggesting that gold prices may form a "phase top" after the cut [1] Group 2 - Long-term, the value of gold as an investment remains unchanged due to the Fed's continued rate cut path amidst economic adjustments and persistent inflation concerns [1] - The trend of de-dollarization, geopolitical risks, and the need for diversified investment portfolios are driving global central banks and institutional investors to increase their gold allocations [1] - The Gold Stock ETF (517400) tracks the SSH Gold Stock Index (931238), which includes 50 listed companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of the gold industry chain [1]

【华泰证券：降息落地后金价短期或承压，长期配置价值不变】华泰证券表示，短期来看，由于美联储 降息利好已被充分定价，黄金可能面临"卖事实"的回调压力。本次降息属于预防式降息，参考2024年9 月降息后的情况，金价可能在降息之后一定时间形成"阶段性"顶部。 华泰证券认为，中长期黄金配置 价值不变。一方面，联储在上调、通胀粘性的背景下仍延续降息路径，叠加市场对2026年鲍威尔任期结 束后联储可能更宽松的预期，长期美滞胀的隐忧仍在。另一方面，在全球格局重塑的年代，去美元化趋 势、地缘政治风险以及投资组合多元化的需求，都在推动全球央行和投资者持续增配黄金。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on September 18 marks the beginning of a new preventive rate-cutting cycle, with expectations for further cuts in October and December [1][2][4]. Summary by Relevant Categories Interest Rate Outlook - Most brokerages anticipate an additional 50 basis points of cuts within the year, but the long-term reduction may not meet prior market expectations [1][2][4]. - The Fed's internal decision-making shows significant divergence, leading to uncertainty in future rate paths [1][4][9]. Economic Projections - The prevailing view is a soft landing for the U.S. economy, although some brokerages warn that excessive monetary easing could lead to stagflation risks [1][4][9]. - The Fed's dot plot indicates a lower rate of future cuts than previously expected, with projections of 75 basis points this year and 25 basis points in the following two years [3][10]. Market Reactions - Short-term risk assets are expected to experience increased volatility, while mid-term outlooks remain positive for U.S. equities [3][6]. - The market had already priced in the rate cut, leading to initial gains in bonds and equities followed by corrections [6][10]. Sector Impacts - Sectors such as real estate and manufacturing are anticipated to benefit first from the rate cuts, with a favorable sentiment in A-shares and increased sensitivity in Hong Kong stocks due to improved overseas liquidity [7][8][12]. - The Fed's decision is expected to create more room for China's monetary policy adjustments, potentially leading to further easing domestically [2][12]. Divergence in Analyst Opinions - Analysts express mixed views on the Fed's approach, with some highlighting a hawkish tone in the risk management narrative, suggesting that continuous rate cuts may not be guaranteed [4][11]. - The Fed's focus on employment risks over inflation risks indicates a cautious approach to future monetary policy adjustments [9][12].

为了更好地满足广大投资者的理财需求，根据融通基金管理有限公司（以下简称"融通基金"）与华泰证 券股份有限公司（以下简称"华泰证券"）签署的销售协议，从2025年9月19日起，融通基金旗下融通产 业趋势臻选股票型证券投资基金C类新增华泰证券为销售机构，并开通定期定额投资业务、转换业务。 现将有关事项公告如下： 一、适用基金及业务范围 ■ 二、其他提示 1.投资者仅能申请办理相同收费模式下基金代码的转换，即"前端收费转前端收费、后端收费转后端收 费"，不能将前端收费模式基金代码的份额转换为后端收费模式基金代码的份额，或将后端收费模式基 金代码的份额转换为前端收费模式基金代码的份额。同一基金的不同基金份额类别之间不得互相转换。 相关业务规则如有变动，请以融通基金最新发布的公告为准。 2.投资者通过上述销售机构办理定期定额投资业务，相关的定期定额投资业务具体程序和业务规则详见 上述销售机构的相关规定。 3.投资者欲了解基金的详细情况，请仔细阅读基金《基金合同》和《招募说明书》等法律文件。 三、咨询方式 特此公告。 融通基金管理有限公司 1.华泰证券股份有限公司 网址：www.htsc.com.cn 客户服务电话：95 ...

华泰证券表示，尽管美联储上调了对未来通胀的预测，但其给出的利率预期却更低，这表明货币政策逐 步宽松的趋势或已确立。叠加市场对2026年鲍威尔任期结束后联储可能更宽松的预期，长期美经济滞胀 的隐忧仍在，我们仍认为黄金具有长期配置价值。重申在全球格局重塑的年代，去美元化趋势、地缘政 治风险以及投资组合多元化的需求，都在推动全球央行和机构投资者持续增配黄金，这种结构性需求的 变化为金价提供了坚实的底部支撑。黄金长期上涨趋势或持续，仍建议逢低买入。建议关注成长性和估 值优势兼具的黄金股。 ...

人民财讯9月19日电，华泰证券研报称，合同服务边际(CSM)是寿险合同负债的组成部分，代表尚未实 现的预期利润，可被视作是利润的蓄水池。CSM每年的释放是保险服务业绩的重要组成部分，保险服 务业绩代表从事保险业务赚取的利润，可被视作是寿险的承保利润，与投资业绩一起构成当年盈利的主 要部分。2023年切换新会计准则至2025年上半年这两年半中，主要上市保险公司CSM增长差异较大， 但合计CSM略降，在保费增速反弹的背景下较为突兀。CSM增长乏力对保险服务业绩造成影响，上市 公司合计保险服务业绩同期亦有所承压。2024年以来投资业绩表现出色，最终使净利润增色不少。受新 业务增长推动，华泰证券预计中资上市公司合计CSM在2025—2027每年增长2%左右，有望扭转下滑趋 势。 ...

人民财讯9月19日电，华泰证券研报称，合同服务边际(CSM)是寿险合同负债的组成部分，代表尚未实 现的预期利润，可被视作是利润的蓄水池。CSM每年的释放是保险服务业绩的重要组成部分，保险服 务业绩代表从事保险业务赚取的利润，可被视作是寿险的承保利润，与投资业绩一起构成当年盈利的主 要部分。2023年切换新会计准则至2025年上半年这两年半中，主要上市保险公司CSM增长差异较大， 但合计CSM略降，在保费增速反弹的背景下较为突兀。CSM增长乏力对保险服务业绩造成影响，上市 公司合计保险服务业绩同期亦有所承压。2024年以来投资业绩表现出色，最终使净利润增色不少。受新 业务增长推动，华泰证券预计中资上市公司合计CSM在2025—2027每年增长2%左右，有望扭转下滑趋 势。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond issuance by securities firms has significantly accelerated since July, with a total issuance of 1.14 trillion yuan in 2023, surpassing the previous year's total of 693.7 billion yuan, indicating strong capital replenishment needs in the industry [2][10]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Trends - In September alone, at least four securities firms announced new short-term financing bond issuances, totaling over 8 billion yuan, contributing to a cumulative issuance of over 110 billion yuan in the first half of September [1][9]. - The total bond issuance by securities firms from July 1 to September 17 reached approximately 543.8 billion yuan, accounting for about 47% of the annual total [2]. - As of September 17, 2023, 71 securities firms have issued bonds, with a total issuance of 1.14 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 64.7% [10]. Group 2: Types of Bonds and Their Purposes - Securities company bonds remain the mainstay, with 415 bonds issued totaling over 750 billion yuan, while short-term financing bonds accounted for nearly 370 billion yuan [11]. - The average coupon rate for the issued bonds is 1.89%, with a general downward trend in interest rates compared to the previous year [13][14]. - The primary purposes of the raised funds include liquidity support and refinancing existing debts, with some firms committing to limit the use of funds for capital-consuming businesses [21][24]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The increase in bond issuance is driven by a recovery in the A-share market, which has led to a rise in margin trading balances from approximately 1.85 trillion yuan at the end of June to about 2.26 trillion yuan at the end of August, marking a 22.2% increase [9]. - The current low-interest-rate environment makes bond financing more attractive compared to equity financing, providing larger funding support while avoiding equity dilution [25]. - If the A-share market remains active, the trend of bond issuance by securities firms is expected to continue in the near future [25].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points marks the beginning of a new preventive rate-cutting cycle, with expectations for further cuts in October and December [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Predictions - Over 15 brokerage firms have released reports interpreting the Fed's rate cut, with "in line with expectations" being the dominant sentiment [1]. - Most brokerages anticipate an additional 50 basis points of cuts within the year, but long-term cuts may be less than previously expected [1][4]. - The consensus among analysts is that the U.S. economy may achieve a soft landing, although some warn that excessive easing could lead to stagflation risks [1][11]. Group 2: Individual Brokerage Insights - **CITIC Securities**: Predicts further cuts in October and December, but the path for rates next year remains unclear [3]. - **China Merchants Securities**: Indicates that the Fed's dot plot suggests a lower rate cut than market expectations, with potential volatility in risk assets [6]. - **Guotai Junan Securities**: Believes the new rate-cutting cycle will support market liquidity and stock performance, despite a slower long-term pace [8][10]. Group 3: Economic Implications - **Zhejiang Merchants Securities**: Describes the rate cut as a "risk management" measure, indicating a hawkish tone and uncertainty about future cuts [4][13]. - **Huatai Securities**: Adjusts its forecast for rate cuts from two to three times this year, citing ongoing pressures in the job market [4][12]. - **CICC**: Warns that excessive monetary easing could exacerbate inflation and lead to a stagflation scenario [11]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - **CITIC Jian Investment**: Highlights that real estate and manufacturing sectors are likely to benefit first from the rate cuts [7]. - **Guangdong Development Securities**: Suggests that the Fed's actions may create more room for China's monetary policy adjustments [2][6]. - **Dongwu Securities**: Notes that the Fed's guidance indicates an additional rate cut next year, which may support market sentiment [2].

华泰证券（601688）(06886)发布公告，华泰证券股份有限公司2025年面向专业投资者公开发行次级债 券(第三期)期限为5年。根据网下专业机构投资者询价结果，经发行人和主承销商协商一致，最终确定 本期债券票面利率为2.24%。 ...