Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of the liquor industry during the holiday season is expected to decline by approximately 20%, aligning with pre-holiday expectations, although there are some positive indicators in specific segments [3][5]. Group 1: Liquor Sales Performance - Liquor sales showed marginal acceleration about a week before the holiday but gradually slowed down afterward, with an overall expected decline of around 20% [3]. - High-end products, particularly from Moutai and Wuliangye, demonstrated good turnover, while mid-range products like Wuliang Chun and Honghua Lang saw double-digit growth in certain regions [3][4]. - Demand for large gatherings remains relatively strong, with positive growth reported in Jiangsu, Henan, and Sichuan, particularly in the mid-price range [3]. Group 2: Regional Performance - Performance varies significantly by province, with Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan showing slightly better-than-expected results, while other regions like Hunan and Anhui met expectations with declines of over 20% [3][4]. - Feedback from various regions indicates that while some areas experienced a decline, the overall performance was not as poor as initially anticipated [3]. Group 3: Channel Inventory and Pricing - Channel inventory is experiencing slight depletion but remains at a high level, with a balance between incoming and outgoing shipments expected to continue into Q4 2025 and H1 2026 [5]. - Pricing remains stable with slight increases, although there is anticipated downward pressure in the coming months due to seasonal factors and promotional activities [5]. Group 4: Company Strategies and Market Dynamics - Companies are generally reducing their promotional spending, focusing more on consumer-end products rather than channel products, with a notable shift towards secondary products [6]. - Despite reduced spending, leading brands are still managing to increase their market share in specific segments, indicating a competitive market landscape [6]. - The overall collection and shipment progress for companies is lagging by over 10% compared to last year, with some brands maintaining their targets while others are struggling [6]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The current liquor cycle is seen as entering a bottoming phase, with recommendations to focus on companies with lower performance risks, those expected to confirm performance bottoms, and those undergoing significant transformations [7]. - Specific companies such as Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu are highlighted as priority investments due to their resilience [7]. - Attention is also drawn to companies like Yanghe and Jiuzi Li Du, which are undergoing changes that could lead to future growth [7].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) has seen a decline of nearly 5%, currently trading at 8.62 HKD, with a trading volume of 93.05 million HKD. The overall market sentiment reflects concerns about the liquor industry's performance during the upcoming holiday season and potential price pressures in the near term [1]. Industry Summary - The liquor sales have shown a marginal acceleration about a week before the holiday, but are expected to decline by approximately 20%, aligning with pre-holiday expectations [1]. - Factors such as upcoming sales tasks, year-end seasonal cash flow pressures, and e-commerce subsidies during the Double Eleven shopping festival are anticipated to exert downward pressure on prices from October to November [1]. - According to Guotai Junan, further adjustments to the sector's financial reports are expected by the third quarter of 2025 [1]. Company Summary - Zhenjiu Lidu has recently launched its new flagship product "Dazhen," which has already generated a revenue of 370 million CNY and has signed over 2,800 alliance merchants nationwide [1]. - Huaxin Securities previously indicated that the introduction of "Dazhen" is positioned to complement the Zhen 15 and Zhen 30 series, with a high quality-to-price ratio expected to create a third growth curve for Zhenjiu [1].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) has experienced a decline of nearly 5%, currently trading at 8.62 HKD, with a transaction volume of 93.05 million HKD, indicating market concerns regarding the liquor industry performance and company-specific developments [1] Industry Summary - The liquor sales have shown a marginal acceleration about a week before the holiday, but are expected to decline by approximately 20%, aligning with pre-holiday expectations [1] - Factors such as upcoming task volumes, year-end off-season financial pressures, and e-commerce subsidies during the Double Eleven shopping festival are anticipated to exert downward pressure on prices from October to November [1] - Guotai Junan predicts that the sector's financial reports may undergo further adjustments by the third quarter of 2025 [1] Company Summary - Zhenjiu Lidu has launched its new flagship product "Dazhen," which has reportedly achieved a revenue of 370 million CNY, with over 2,800 national alliance merchants signed [1] - Huaxin Securities previously noted that the introduction of "Dazhen" is positioned to complement the Zhen 15 and Zhen 30 series, with a high quality-to-price ratio expected to create a third growth curve for Zhenjiu [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights how Zhenjiu Lidu has achieved resilient growth through organizational and product innovation amidst a deep adjustment period in the liquor industry [2][14] - The company has demonstrated strong strategic determination and adaptability in response to market challenges, providing a high-quality development model for the industry [2][14] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Zhenjiu Lidu reported revenue of 2.497 billion yuan and an adjusted net profit of 613 million yuan, maintaining a high gross margin of 59% [4][14] - This performance stands out in an industry facing significant pressure, showcasing the company's operational resilience [4] Product Innovation - The launch of "Da Zhen·Zhenjiu," priced at 600 yuan, targets the mid-range market, directly competing with products priced around 3000 yuan, appealing to middle-class families and small business owners [6] - This strategy aligns with the trend of rational consumption and captures the emerging demand for value-driven products [6] Organizational Innovation - Zhenjiu Lidu is building a "super organization" through the "Wanshang Alliance," aiming to recruit thousands of alliance merchants to create a nationwide group-buying network [7] - This model addresses traditional channel profit compression and redefines manufacturer-distributor relationships, achieving systematic upgrades [7][9] Brand and Communication Innovation - The personal branding of Chairman Wu Xiangdong has significantly enhanced brand trust, with over 50 million views in two months and attracting more than 7.5 million viewers in two live broadcasts [10][11] - This approach combines personal influence with brand storytelling, transitioning from functional to emotional brand communication, effectively increasing brand search indices [11] Strategic Insights - The practices of Zhenjiu Lidu provide profound insights for the industry, emphasizing the need for systemic innovation and proactive strategic planning in response to market adjustments [12][14] - The company’s focus on long-term strategies and ecosystem building positions it favorably for leading the industry transformation [14]

Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges faced by the Chinese liquor industry, particularly the company Zhenjiu Lidou, which reported a revenue of 2.497 billion yuan and an adjusted net profit of 613 million yuan, reflecting a slowdown in growth amidst a tough market environment [2][3]. Industry Overview - Since 2025, the liquor industry has been grappling with price inversion and weak sales, leading to a decline in production among major liquor companies [2]. - The structural change in consumption patterns has resulted in a significant drop in government and business banquets, while family consumption has increased but at lower price points, affecting the sales of mid-to-high-end products [2][5]. - Increased competition from leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye, along with changing preferences among younger consumers for lower-alcohol beverages, has further pressured traditional liquor demand [2][5]. Company Performance - Despite a contraction in revenue, Zhenjiu Lidou's fundamentals remain strong, with a slight increase in gross margin to 59% and a stable adjusted net profit margin of 24.6% [5]. - The company's core product, Zhenjiu, saw a decline in revenue, but the brand Lidou experienced a 27.79% increase in sales, raising its revenue contribution from 16.3% to 24.5% [5]. Strategic Initiatives - Zhenjiu Lidou is focusing on channel optimization and product structure improvement, opting for a conservative growth strategy to solidify its foundation for future recovery [5][11]. - The company has reduced the number of distributors by 516 but increased the number of valuable "cooperative partners" by 55, indicating a shift towards quality over quantity in its distribution strategy [5]. - The exit from the "Wanshang Alliance" plan aims to strengthen relationships with distributors through stricter entry requirements and better price control, fostering a collaborative environment [5]. Product Innovation - Zhenjiu Lidou has launched a new product, "Da Zhen·Zhenjiu," priced at 600 yuan per bottle, targeting the high-end market, and introduced a premium beer, "Niu Shi," priced at 88 yuan, to attract younger consumers [7]. - The company's willingness to innovate during a downturn has garnered market recognition, positioning it as a potential leader in the industry's recovery [9]. Leadership and Vision - The strategic direction of Zhenjiu Lidou is heavily influenced by its chairman, Wu Xiangdong, whose extensive experience in the liquor industry has equipped the company with resilience and adaptability [9][11]. - The company's approach of balancing traditional strengths with innovative strategies serves as a replicable model for transformation within the industry [9][11].

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年9月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 珍酒李渡集團有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年10月3日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 06979 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 25,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.000002 | USD | | 50,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | USD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 25,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.000002 | USD | | 50,000 | 本月底法定/註 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall white liquor industry is still in an adjustment period, leading to a downward revision of the profit forecast for Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) for 2025-2027 [1] Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.497 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.6%, and a net profit of 575 million yuan, down 23.5% [1][2] - The expected revenue for 2025-2027 is revised to 5.978 billion, 6.590 billion, and 7.141 billion yuan, down from previous estimates of 7.328 billion, 8.100 billion, and 8.786 billion yuan [1][5] - The expected net profit for the same period is adjusted to 1.073 billion, 1.294 billion, and 1.700 billion yuan, compared to previous forecasts of 1.525 billion, 1.820 billion, and 2.305 billion yuan [1][5] Sales and Volume Analysis - The company's liquor business revenue for H1 2025 was 2.497 billion yuan, with a volume decrease of 35.58% to 9,125 tons and an average price drop of 6.20% to 273,700 yuan per ton [2] - Revenue by brand showed Zhenjiu, Lidu, Xiangjiao, and Kaikouxiao at 1.492 billion, 611 million, 277 million, and 81 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year declines of 44.80%, 9.40%, 38.73%, and 63.91% [2] Margin and Cost Analysis - The gross margin for H1 2025 improved by 0.28 percentage points to 59.04%, while the net profit margin increased by 4.83 percentage points to 23.02% [4] - The improvement in gross margin is attributed to a higher proportion of Lidu, which has a better margin, and the release of self-owned production capacity, reducing unit costs [4] Strategic Outlook - The company is focusing on mid-to-high-end products and expanding banquet scene channels to drive stable growth in 2025 [5] - The company maintains a "buy" rating despite the overall adjustment in the white liquor industry [1][5]

Core Viewpoint - The overall white liquor industry is still in an adjustment period, leading to a downward revision of the profit forecast for Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) for 2025-2027, with expected revenues of 5.978 billion, 6.590 billion, and 7.141 billion yuan, and net profits of 1.073 billion, 1.294 billion, and 1.700 billion yuan respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In H1 2025, the company's liquor business revenue was 2.497 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.58%, with sales volume down 35.58% to 9,125 tons and average price down 6.20% to 273,700 yuan per ton [1] - By brand, revenues for Zhenjiu, Lidu, Xiangjiao, and Kaikouxiao were 1.492 billion, 611 million, 277 million, and 81 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -44.80%, -9.40%, -38.73%, and -63.91% [2] - The gross profit margins for Zhenjiu, Lidu, Xiangjiao, and Kaikouxiao were 58.3%, 66.5%, 58.7%, and 41.7% respectively, with slight year-on-year changes [2] Channel and Cost Structure - In H1 2025, revenue from distributors and direct sales was 2.197 billion and 300 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year declines of 41.78% and 16.57% [3] - The company’s gross profit margin increased by 0.28 percentage points to 59.04%, and net profit margin increased by 4.83 percentage points to 23.02% [4] Strategic Outlook - The company is focusing on mid-to-high-end products and expanding banquet scenarios to drive stable growth in 2025, despite the overall industry adjustment [5] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised downwards, with expected revenues and net profits reflecting the current market conditions [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5][14]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 2.497 billion yuan, down 39.6% year-on-year, and net profit at 575 million yuan, down 23.5% [1][4]. - The company is expected to see growth from the new "Da Zhen" product line in the second half of 2025, which is anticipated to drive revenue recovery [1][2]. - The overall liquor business revenue decreased by 39.58% in the first half of 2025, with sales volume down 35.58% to 9,125 tons [1][2]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue by brand for the first half of 2025: Zhenjiu at 1.492 billion yuan (down 44.80%), Lidou at 611 million yuan (down 9.40%), Xiangjiao at 277 million yuan (down 38.73%), and Kaikouxiao at 81 million yuan (down 63.91%) [2]. - Gross margins for the brands were: Zhenjiu at 58.3%, Lidou at 66.5%, Xiangjiao at 58.7%, and Kaikouxiao at 41.7% [2]. - The company’s revenue from high-end, mid-range, and low-end products for the first half of 2025 was 575 million yuan, 982 million yuan, and 940 million yuan respectively, with high-end revenue down 47.28% [2]. Channel Performance - Revenue from distributors and direct sales in the first half of 2025 was 2.197 billion yuan and 300 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a decline of 41.78% and 16.57% [3]. - The number of distributor partners increased by 152 to 3,259, while the number of retail stores decreased by 357 to 2,835 [3]. Profitability Metrics - The company’s gross margin improved by 0.28 percentage points to 59.04%, and net profit margin increased by 4.83 percentage points to 23.02% [3]. - The improvement in gross margin is attributed to a higher proportion of Lidou sales and the release of self-owned production capacity, which reduced unit costs [3]. Future Outlook - The company plans to focus on mid-range and high-end products in response to changing demand and aims to expand its presence in banquet scenarios to drive growth [4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been lowered, with expected revenues of 5.978 billion yuan, 6.590 billion yuan, and 7.141 billion yuan, and net profits of 1.073 billion yuan, 1.294 billion yuan, and 1.700 billion yuan respectively [4].

Industry Overview - The Chinese liquor industry is experiencing an unprecedented adjustment period, with intensified competition in a saturated market, reduced business banquet scenarios, and weakened consumer confidence leading to rising channel inventory [1] - National Bureau of Statistics data indicates that the production of liquor by large-scale enterprises in China decreased by 8.9% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025 [1] - Most liquor companies reported varying degrees of performance decline in their semi-annual reports, indicating a consensus that the industry is in deep adjustment [1] Company Performance - Despite the overall industry downturn, Zhenjiu Lidu, known as the "first stock of Hong Kong liquor," has adopted a counter-cyclical strategy, launching two strategic new products, "Dazhen Zhenjiu" and "Niushi Beer," and attracting significant attention with its "Wanshang Alliance" model [2][3] - The launch of "Dazhen Zhenjiu" was marked by a successful live-streaming event on September 19, attracting 7.298 million viewers and achieving 4.895 million likes, making it the hottest live stream of the day [2] - The "Wanshang Alliance" has signed 3,082 alliance merchants, and the new products have become rare hot sellers in the industry, with Zhenjiu Lidu's stock performance leading among liquor companies [2] Product Innovation - "Dazhen Zhenjiu" is positioned as a high-quality product with a price around 600 yuan, which is one of the largest price segments in the liquor market [7] - The product is crafted from over 200 types of high-quality base liquor, with all spirits aged no later than 2020, including a highlight of 20-year-old liquor [8][9] - The brand's historical foundation and significant investments in production capacity have allowed Zhenjiu Lidu to offer top-quality liquor at accessible prices, breaking the traditional high-end liquor pricing logic [9][11] Market Strategy - The "Wanshang Alliance" model aims to create a shared interest community among manufacturers and distributors, addressing long-standing issues in the liquor industry such as price discrepancies and inventory challenges [12][14] - The model includes a strict "full control price" strategy and a profit-sharing mechanism to prevent issues like price undercutting, ensuring that alliance merchants can operate without fear of being undercut by low-priced sales [14][15] - The "Alliance Merchant Rights Payment Plan" further strengthens the collaboration between manufacturers and distributors, allowing merchants to share in the company's growth without diluting existing shareholder equity [17][18] Brand and Communication - The personal brand of Chairman Wu Xiangdong has become a powerful marketing tool, enhancing market trust and brand recognition during the industry's adjustment period [19][20] - Wu's approachable communication style and focus on practical wisdom have resonated with consumers, leading to significant engagement on social media platforms [20] - Zhenjiu Lidu's stock price has surged, with a market value increase of over 10 billion Hong Kong dollars since the beginning of 2025, reflecting strong market recognition of its innovative strategies [21]