Core Viewpoint - The domestic narrow passenger car market in China experienced significant retail sales growth in February 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 25.6% despite a month-on-month decline of 26.4% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - In February 2025, retail sales reached 1.382 million units, while cumulative sales for January and February totaled 3.176 million units, reflecting a slight year-on-year growth of 1.1% [1][2]. - The overall market sentiment is stable due to measures aimed at curbing excessive competition and boosting automotive consumption, alongside the implementation of new policies [2]. Group 2: Manufacturer Sales Rankings - In February 2025, BYD led the wholesale sales with 318,233 units, marking a 161.4% increase from February 2024, capturing a market share of 17.8% [3]. - Geely and Chery followed with wholesale sales of 204,910 units (up 83.9%) and 173,604 units (up 26.0%), respectively [3]. - For the cumulative sales in January and February 2025, BYD also topped the list with 614,679 units sold, a 90.4% increase year-on-year [5]. Group 3: Retail Sales Rankings - In February 2025, BYD again led in retail sales with 205,711 units, a 73.2% increase from the previous year, holding a market share of 14.6% [7]. - Geely's retail sales reached 179,990 units, reflecting a 106.8% increase, while FAW-Volkswagen sold 98,100 units, a 5.9% increase [7]. - For the first two months of 2025, Geely and BYD were the top two manufacturers in retail sales, with 419,934 and 405,953 units sold, respectively [9]. Group 4: New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Sales - In February 2025, BYD led the NEV market with 205,711 units sold, a 73.2% increase, capturing 29.2% of the market share [10]. - Geely's NEV sales surged by 197.5% to 93,309 units, while Chery's sales increased by 323.5% to 30,832 units [10][11]. - Tesla China experienced a decline in sales, with 26,777 units sold, down 11.2% from the previous year [11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Leap Motor (零跑汽车) with a target price of HKD 50 [1][3]. Core Insights - The pricing of the new B10 electric SUV is highly competitive, with a pre-sale price range of RMB 109,800 to 139,800, which may lead to an increase in sales forecasts for 2025 [1]. - The company is expected to achieve breakeven in 2025, with a projected gross margin increase and a significant rise in total revenue [2]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are set to grow significantly, with expectations of reaching RMB 510 billion and RMB 575 billion respectively [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Leap Motor's B10 model is anticipated to boost sales, with an upward revision of 25,000 units for the 2025 sales forecast, raising total sales expectations from 450,000 to 480,000 units [1]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the gross margin increased by 5.2 percentage points to 13.3%, with total revenue rising by 37% to RMB 13.5 billion, marking the first net profit of RMB 81 million [2]. - The overall gross margin for 2025 is expected to improve by 2.9 percentage points to 11.2%, driven by cost reductions from the Leap 3.5 platform [2]. Future Projections - Revenue for 2025 is projected to grow by 59% year-on-year, reaching RMB 510 billion, while 2026 is expected to see a net profit of RMB 1.26 billion with the launch of new models [3]. - The target price has been raised to HKD 50 based on a price-to-sales ratio of 1.2x for FY25, aligning with the average valuation multiples of new energy vehicle manufacturers in China [3].

Summary of Leap Motor Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Leap Motor - **Industry**: New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) Key Points and Arguments Market Trends and Projections - Leap Motor predicts that by 2027-2028, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China will reach 80%-90%, driven by the economic advantages of electric vehicles, which have operating costs only one-fourth that of fuel vehicles, and even lower in some regions [2][5] - The full electrification of the Chinese market will weaken the market share of traditional fuel vehicle manufacturers (e.g., BBA), with Chinese new energy vehicle companies further eroding their advantages globally [2][6] - The trend of electrification is expected to expand globally, with electric vehicles gradually replacing traditional fuel vehicles due to their economic and operational advantages [5] Technological Advancements - Smart technology is identified as a key factor in the second phase of electric vehicle development, with expectations for high-level intelligent driving on elevated highways by 2025 and gradual urban adoption [2][7] - Leap Motor ranks 11th globally in electric vehicle shipments, with expectations for increased sales and ranking improvements in 2024-2025, supported by advantages in core components like batteries and chips [2][8] Sales and Financial Performance - Leap Motor's sales target for 2025 is set at 500,000 vehicles, based on an average monthly sales forecast of 30,000 to 40,000 vehicles in 2024 [3][13] - In 2024, Leap Motor achieved significant results, doubling sales and achieving positive gross margins in Q4, with cash flow exceeding 10 billion yuan [4] Competitive Landscape - The Chinese new energy vehicle market is expected to undergo structural adjustments over the next three years, with traditional fuel vehicle companies losing significant market share in China [5][6] - Leap Motor emphasizes core technology research and product planning to enhance competitiveness, with plans to upgrade urban driving functions by Q3 and Q4 of 2025 [10][12] Product Development and Strategy - Leap Motor plans to launch three new models in the B series and fully update the C series to a 3.5 architecture platform, with an average range increase of 50 kilometers [3][13] - The company aims to maintain a competitive edge through detailed strategic planning, including a five-year strategic plan and annual business plans [17] International Expansion - Leap Motor established a network of over 300 dealers and achieved 3,700 units in exports by September 2024, with a goal of over 50,000 units by the end of 2025 [19][20] - The company is focusing on local manufacturing to reduce tariff costs and enhance competitiveness [20] Financial Goals and Profitability - For 2025, Leap Motor aims for a gross margin of 10%-11% and plans to control expenses while targeting sales of 500,000 vehicles, with a conservative estimate of achieving profitability [23][28] - The company anticipates that achieving sales of 1 million vehicles could lead to significant profitability, with potential earnings of 5 billion to 10 billion yuan [28] Strategic Partnerships and Collaborations - Leap Motor is progressing in strategic partnerships, including agreements with multiple companies for core components, with expectations for significant developments by 2026 [32][33] Chip Development and Market Dynamics - The chip market is highly competitive, with major players like Nvidia and Qualcomm dominating, while Leap Motor is investing in self-developed chips to enhance its technological capabilities [34][35] - The company is exploring the possibility of integrating its self-developed chips and algorithms into a model similar to Huawei's approach [33] Future Outlook - Leap Motor is optimistic about its growth trajectory, aiming to enhance brand recognition and consumer reputation while expanding its market presence both domestically and internationally [32][38]

智驾平权加速渗透，看好比亚迪、零跑汽车 摘要 • 新能源汽车渗透率加速提升重塑行业竞争格局，比亚迪发布全新智能驾驶 战略，全系标配天成智驾，推动智驾平权，超出市场预期。 • 吉利发布千里浩瀚高阶智驾方案，包括高速 N 微分和城市文化功能，将陆 续搭载于银河系列车型。 • 零跑汽车发布 B10，首次在 12 万元级别车型搭载激光雷达高阶智驾，全 系标配自动泊车，支持高速 A 及城区 CNAP 功能，实现智驾平权。 • 整车资产支架全面升级推动行情扩散，整车投资机会在于智能化赋能后的 销量和利润提升，零部件机会在于硬件公司业绩兑现和新技术供应商估值 提升。 • 比亚迪订单中智驾版占比受新旧款切换影响，清库缓慢经销商占比可达 50%以上，预计三月中下旬智驾版订单将全面爆发。 • 比亚迪核心竞争力在于成本控制能力，销量规模效应降低单车固定成本， 上游供应链优势支持其估值上行。 • 零跑汽车工程化能力强大，快速迭代至全新平台，B10 实现高速 NOA 等 功能，并推广至所有车型，24 年四季度首次实现净利润转正，毛利率达 13.3%，销量预计持续增长，PS 较低，股价上涨潜力大。 Q&A 2025 年乘用车板块的整体变 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Leap Motor (9863.HK) with a target price of HKD 52.4, indicating a potential upside of 26% from the current price of HKD 41.5 [2][4][6]. Core Insights - Leap Motor's sales guidance for 2025 is strong, with expectations to exceed 500,000 vehicles sold, driven by new models and mid-cycle updates [6]. - The company aims for a gross margin of over 10%, supported by its self-developed core automotive electronic components and the LEAP 3.5 architecture [6]. - Leap Motor is expected to achieve profitability in 2025, aided by effective cost management and operational leverage [6]. - The current price-to-sales ratio for Leap Motor is 0.9x, suggesting potential for valuation re-rating compared to peers in the new energy vehicle sector [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow significantly from RMB 16,747 million in 2023 to RMB 57,812 million in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 80% [3][10]. - Gross margin is expected to improve from 0.5% in 2023 to 10.8% in 2025, indicating enhanced profitability [3][10]. - Net loss is forecasted to decrease from RMB 4,216 million in 2023 to a near breakeven of RMB 49 million in 2025, with a return to profitability anticipated in 2026 [3][10]. Sales and Market Performance - Leap Motor's Q4 2024 revenue reached RMB 13,461 million, a year-on-year increase of 155%, with a gross margin of 13.3% [9]. - The company sold 120,863 vehicles in Q4 2024, marking a 118% increase compared to the same quarter in the previous year [9]. - The average selling price of vehicles increased by 12% year-on-year to RMB 107,099 [9]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts approach, applying a price-to-sales ratio of 1.1x for automotive sales and 1.0x for services and other revenues, leading to a target price of HKD 52.4 [11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [3][7]. Core Insights - The company is entering a rapid growth phase, with expected continuous improvement in performance. The recent launch of the B10 model has generated significant market interest, with over 15,000 orders within the first hour of pre-sale [7]. - The company focuses on high cost-performance products, establishing a competitive advantage in the market. It maintains a self-research approach for over 70% of its core components, supporting rapid product iteration [7]. - The company is projected to achieve profitability in 2025, with net profits expected to reach 1.89 billion RMB, 22.4 billion RMB, and 43.9 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][9]. Company Overview - The company operates in the automotive industry, with a current stock price of HKD 41.50 as of March 10, 2025. The market capitalization is approximately 34.76 billion RMB [2]. - The company has a total share issuance of 1,336.97 million shares, with 1,116.41 million shares listed as H shares [2]. - Major shareholder includes Chen Ailing, holding 25.09% of the shares [2]. Financial Performance - For the year 2024, the company reported a revenue of 32.16 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 92.1%. The net loss was reduced to 2.82 billion RMB, an improvement of 1.39 billion RMB compared to 2023 [7][9]. - The company achieved a gross margin of 8.38% for the year, with a significant increase in quarterly gross margin to 13.3% in Q4 2024 [7]. - Free cash flow turned positive at 6.32 billion RMB, a substantial increase from a negative cash flow of 320 million RMB in the previous year [7]. Sales Projections - The company aims to sell between 500,000 to 600,000 vehicles in 2025, with a projected monthly sales volume of 20,000 to 25,000 units for the B10 model after its official launch [7]. - The sales target reflects a doubling of sales volume compared to the previous year, supported by new model launches and upgrades [7].

2025年3月11日 CMB国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 Leapmotor (9863 HK) 竞争性定价 B10 在2024年第四季度实现强劲的 利润率。 Leapmotor 推出了其 B10 3月10日的EV发布，预售价范围在人民币109,800-1 39,800。具备激光雷达和城市NOA功能型号的价格低至人民币129,800。我们 认为这样的价格具有竞争力。考虑到Leapmotor利用Qualcomm 8650芯片进行 自主研发的自动驾驶，我们认为许多投资者仍然低估了Leapmotor的研发能力 。因此，我们将其在FY25E年的B系列销量上调25,000单位。我们还将其在FY2 5E年的总销量上调30,000单位至0.48mn单位。 在FY25E实现可能的盈亏平衡，得益于规模经济的扩大和强劲的2024年第 四季度利润率。 Leapmotor的2024年第四季度毛利率环比上升5.2个百分点至1 3.3%，符合其盈利预警。其2024年第四季度收入环比增长37%至人民币135亿 元，净利润为人民币8100万元，甚至强于预期。 我们之前的预测 我们预计， 凭借Leap 3.5架构在降低成本方面的帮 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating for Leapmotor, indicating potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [1][16]. Core Views - Leapmotor's competitive pricing for the new B10 EV and strong margins in 4Q24 enhance confidence in sales performance. The FY25E sales volume is revised up by 7% to 0.48 million units, with expectations of a minimal net loss in FY25E and a net profit of RMB1.26 billion in FY26E [1][6]. - The company's in-house autonomous driving and chassis capabilities are seen as undervalued, potentially leading to better-than-expected gross profit margins for the B series [1][6]. - The investor day on March 11 is anticipated to showcase technologies that could positively impact share price [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections show significant growth, with FY24E at RMB32.16 billion, FY25E at RMB51.02 billion, and FY26E at RMB57.54 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 92.1%, 58.6%, and 12.8% respectively [2][11]. - Gross margin is expected to improve from 8.4% in FY24E to 11.2% in FY25E and 12.3% in FY26E, indicating a positive trend in profitability [2][11]. - Net profit is projected to transition from a loss of RMB98 million in FY25E to a profit of RMB1.26 billion in FY26E, showcasing a significant turnaround [2][11]. Sales and Market Performance - Leapmotor's B10 EV was launched with a competitive pre-sale price range of RMB109,800-139,800, with the model featuring LiDAR priced as low as RMB129,800 [1][6]. - The company reported a 37% quarter-on-quarter revenue increase in 4Q24, reaching RMB13.5 billion, with a net profit of RMB81 million, exceeding previous forecasts [1][6]. - The gross margin for 4Q24 rose to 13.3%, up 5.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating improved operational efficiency [1][6]. Valuation - The target price for Leapmotor has been raised from HK$40.00 to HK$50.00, based on a price-to-sales ratio of 1.2x for FY25E, aligning with the average for Chinese new energy vehicle start-ups [3][6]. - Current market capitalization stands at HK$55.48 billion, with a current share price of HK$41.50, indicating a potential upside of 20.5% [3][6].

其中，第四季度零跑月均交付超4万台，毛利率达13.3%，创单季度新高；更实现净利润转正，提前一 年达成单季度盈利目标，成为第二家盈利的新势力公司。 人民财讯3月11日电，近日，零跑汽车发布2024年年度财报，期内，公司营业收入为321.6亿元，保持强 劲增长；毛利率达8.4%，创历史新高；全年交付达293724台，超额完成年度目标；经营现金流和自由 现金流双转正，在手资金充裕，达204.2亿元。 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a net profit of RMB 80 million, marking it as the second profit-making company among EV startups [7] - Total revenue for 2024 was RMB 32.16 billion, up by 92% from 2023 [8] - The gross profit (GP) margin for 2024 was 8.4%, an increase of 7.9 percentage points from 0.5% in 2023 [9] - The attributable net loss was reduced to RMB 2.82 billion from RMB 4.22 billion in 2023, a decrease of RMB 1.4 billion [9] - Operating net cash improved to RMB 2.47 billion from RMB 1.08 billion in 2023 [10] - Free cash flow increased to RMB 6.32 billion from a negative RMB 0.32 billion [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company delivered 32,724 vehicles in 2024, a growth of 103.8% compared to 14,400 in 2023 [8] - C series deliveries in 2024 were 22,571, representing a 12.9% improvement from 2023 [11] - Monthly sales in Q4 exceeded 8,000 vehicles [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has captured a top five position in respective markets, with significant growth in sales and market presence [14] - As of December 2024, the company had accumulated over 600,000 vehicle deliveries [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to launch the B series models in 2025, targeting a sales goal of 500,000 units by 2025 [13] - The company is focusing on expanding its retail network, with 695 stores covering 264 cities, an increase of 82 cities from 2023 [17] - A joint venture with Stellantis was formed to manage export sales and localized production overseas [20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expects deliveries in 2025 to range from 500,000 to 600,000 units, with a GP margin target of 10% to 11% [25] - The company aims to achieve profitability in 2025 [26] - Management highlighted the importance of in-house R&D and cost improvements contributing to GP margin growth [30][31] Other Important Information - The company has been rated AA by MSCI for two consecutive years, leading its peers in sustainable development [22] - The Leap 3.5 architecture was launched, enhancing the company's technological capabilities [60] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance for 2025 including sales, GP margin, and profitability - The company expects deliveries in 2025 to be between 500,000 to 600,000 units, with a GP margin target of 10% to 11% and aims for profitability [25][26] Question: Model planning for 2025 - The company will launch three new models on the B platform in 2025, with facelifts for existing C series models [26][27] Question: Capacity and demand for additional capacity - The company plans to add factory capacity to meet production improvements [27] Question: Contribution of in-house R&D to GP margin - The improvement in GP margin is attributed to increased sales volume, model mix, and in-house production [30][31] Question: Overseas sales guidance and expansion - The company estimates overseas sales in 2025 to be around 50,000 to 60,000 units, with a focus on expanding sales channels [44] Question: Timing for new products above 200,000 yuan - The high-end platform D products are expected to launch in the first half of 2026 [38] Question: Autonomous driving product layout - The company is preparing to roll out autonomous driving technology across its platforms [39] Question: Profit guidance for overseas business in 2025 - The target for Leapmotor International is to break even while focusing on expanding sales channels [41] Question: Breakdown of export units in 2024 - The current product mix for exports includes T03 and C1O, with T03 being more prevalent at this stage [69] Question: Investment in autonomous driving - The company plans to invest over RMB 800 million in autonomous driving development in 2025 [73]