零跑汽车（09863.HK） 乘用车 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 11 月 14 日 国内基本盘毛利率大幅改善，出海进程加速 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with significant revenue growth driven by increased sales volume and higher average selling prices (ASP) [2][3] - The company is making progress in its globalization strategy and accelerating its smart driving technology development [4] - The financial forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted upwards due to better-than-expected Q3 results, reflecting a strong position in the mainstream new energy vehicle market [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 9.86 billion, with year-on-year growth of 74.3% and quarter-on-quarter growth of 83.9% [2] - The net loss attributable to equity holders for Q3 was RMB 690 million, an improvement from RMB 990 million in Q3 2023 and RMB 1.2 billion in Q2 2024 [2] - Adjusted net loss for Q3 was RMB 540 million, compared to RMB 790 million in Q3 2023 and RMB 1.08 billion in Q2 2024 [2] Sales and Margins - The company sold 84,000 vehicles in Q3, representing a year-on-year increase of 89.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 57.4% [3] - The gross margin for Q3 was 8.1%, with improvements driven by economies of scale and a higher proportion of high-margin models [3] - The company reported a reduction in per-vehicle loss to RMB 8,000 in Q3, down from RMB 22,000 in both Q3 2023 and Q2 2024 [3] Globalization and Technology Development - As of October 2024, the company has opened 339 dealerships in Europe, all offering sales and after-sales services [4] - The company plans to expand its presence in the Asia-Pacific, Middle East, Africa, and South America markets, aiming for over 500 channels by 2025 [4] - The company is investing in advanced smart driving technology, with plans to implement high-level driving functions based on a large model by mid-2025 [4] Financial Projections - The revised net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are RMB -3.33 billion, RMB 1.0 billion, and RMB 2.41 billion, respectively [5] - The company is positioned well in the new energy vehicle market, with clear advantages in R&D, channel management, and supply chain [5]

干源证券 汽车/乘用车 公 司 研 究 零跑汽车（09863.HK） 2024 年 11 月 14 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | --- | --- | |-------------------------|---------------| | 日期 | 2024/11/13 | | 当前股价 ( 港元 ) | 32.200 | | 一年最高最低 ( 港元 ) | 42.200/18.640 | | 总市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 430.50 | | 流通市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 359.49 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 13.37 | | 流通港股 ( 亿股 ) | 11.16 | | 近 3 个月换手率 (%) | 31.91 | 股价走势图 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 2023-11 2024-03 2024-07 零跑汽车 恒生指数 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《研发巩固智能化优势，海外出口步 入起量曲线—港股公司信息更新报 告》-2024.8.18 《国内新车周期启动，海外业务前景 可 期 — 港 股 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2024.5.20 《全域自 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - In October 2024, the company achieved a significant year-on-year increase in vehicle deliveries, reaching 38,177 units, which is a 109.7% growth. The monthly order volume also set a record, exceeding 42,000 units, with all three models C10, C11, and C16 each receiving over 10,000 orders [3] - The B10 model was officially unveiled overseas, marking a key step in the company's global strategy. The B10 is designed for young global users and is built on the latest LEAP3.5 technology architecture, emphasizing intelligence, style, fun, and quality. The company has established over 200 dealerships across 13 European countries and plans to expand to 500 dealerships by the end of 2025 [3] - The company remains among the top three in sales among new energy vehicle manufacturers, with continuous improvements in user experience. Recent models have received high praise from consumers and media, and the C16 model has won multiple awards for its chassis and body design [4] - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of -3.703 billion RMB in 2024, -1.08 billion RMB in 2025, and a positive profit of 854 million RMB in 2026, with a corresponding PE ratio of 46.37 in 2026 [4][5] Financial Summary - The company expects to achieve operating revenue of 29.906 billion RMB in 2024, with a growth rate of 78.58%. By 2026, the revenue is projected to reach 79.932 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 47.47% [5][6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to improve from -4.216 billion RMB in 2023 to a positive 854 million RMB in 2026, indicating a significant turnaround [5][6] - The company's total assets are expected to grow from 32.563 billion RMB in 2024 to 61.452 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [6][7]

投资评级:增持(维持) 核心观点 | --- | --- | |------------------------|------------| | 基本数据 | 2024-11-13 | | 收盘价 ( 港元 ) | 32.20 | | 流通股本 ( 亿股 ) | 11.16 | | 每股净资产 ( 港元 ) | 7.81 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 13.37 | | 最近 12 月市场表现 | | -44% -28% -13% 2% 17% 33% 零跑汽车 恒生指数 乘用车 分析师 邢重阳 SAC 证书编号：S0160522110003 xingcy01@ctsec.com 分析师 李渤 SAC 证书编号：S0160521050001 libo@ctsec.com ❖ 事件：公司发布 2024 三季度报告，2024 年第三季度实现营业总收入 98.6 亿 元，环比增长 89.3%，同比增长 74.3%；实现归母净利润-6.9 亿元。 ❖ 毛利率同比提升，期间费用率有所降低：公司 2024 年 Q3 毛利率为 8.1%， 同比+5.3pct。毛利率改善的原因为：1）产品销售结构的变化，2）公司持续进 ...

流通市值（百万港元） 36,283.45 2024 年 11 月 13 日 公司研究 评级：增持(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 戴畅 S0350523120004 daic@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 2024Q3 盈利能力大幅改善，出海业务如期推进 ——零跑汽车（09863）2024 年三季报点评 最近一年走势 事件: 零跑汽车 2024 年 11 月 11 日发布 2024 年三季度业绩公告：2024 第三 季度实现营收 98.6 亿元，同/环比+74.3%/+83.9%；实现归母净利润-6.9 亿元，同/环比亏损收窄。 投资要点: 2024Q3 公司毛利率大幅改善，亏损明显收窄。 1）2024Q3 公司 实现营收 98.6 亿元，同/环比分别+74.3%/+83.9%；实现归母净利润 -6.9 亿元，同/环比减亏分别为 3.0 亿元/5.1 亿元。2024Q3 单车平均 营收（ASP）为 11.4 万元，同/环比分别为-10%/+14%，公司 C16 在三季度开启交付，受销量结构影响，ASP 环比提高 1.4 万元。公 司 2024Q3 毛利率为 8.1%，同/环比分别+6.9 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 45, corresponding to a market capitalization of HKD 595 billion, based on a 1x 2025 estimated price-to-sales ratio [4][5]. Core Insights - The company achieved impressive sales performance in Q3, delivering 86,165 vehicles, representing a year-on-year growth of 94% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 62%. Revenue for Q3 increased by 74.3% to RMB 9.86 billion, driven by the introduction of higher-priced models and improved cost management [1][2]. - The gross margin for Q3 significantly exceeded expectations, rising to 8.1%, a year-on-year increase of 6.9 percentage points, with gross profit doubling to approximately RMB 800 million [1][3]. - The company is expected to exceed its annual sales target of 250,000 vehicles, with Q4 sales projected to surpass 110,000 units due to ongoing trade-in policies and new model launches [2][3]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In Q3, approximately 78.3% of the vehicles sold were from the C series, indicating an improved product mix. Monthly sales have shown consistent growth, with October sales reaching 38,177 units [2]. - The company plans to launch three new B series models in 2025, which are expected to contribute significantly to sales growth [2]. Production Capacity - The current production capacity at the Jinhua factory is nearly maxed out at around 40,000 units per month. A new factory in Hangzhou is under construction, aiming for production in the first half of 2025, with plans for a third factory to be operational by late 2025 or early 2026 [2][3]. Financial Projections - The company anticipates achieving a gross margin of over 5% for the full year, with Q1-Q3 gross margin averaging 4.8%. Projections for 2025 suggest an average gross margin of around 9% [3][4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are estimated at RMB 32.24 billion, RMB 55.05 billion, and RMB 81.72 billion, respectively, with net profit margins expected to improve from -9% in 2024 to 2% in 2026 [4][10]. Market Expansion - The company has set an overseas sales target of 8,000 to 12,000 units for 2024, with plans for localized production in Europe by the end of 2025. The establishment of 339 dealerships in Europe has already surpassed initial targets [3][4].

零跑汽车 20241111 摘要 • 零跑汽车在 2024 年第三季度取得了显著的业务进展，交付量环比增长 61%， 同比增长 94%，达到 86,165 台。营业收入达到 98.6 亿元，环比增长 84%， 同比增长 74%。毛利率大幅改善至 8.1%，净亏损为 6.9 亿元，但经营性现 金流稳步提升，达到 19.6 亿元。 • 零跑汽车 C 系列车型占比持续优化，从一季度的 72%提升到二季度的 75%， 再到三季度的 78%。前三个季度总销量达到 17.28 万台。10 月份销量达到 3.81 万台，当月订单超过 4 万台，其中 C11、C10 和 C16 三款 SUV 订单均 超过 1 万台。 • 零跑汽车将继续推进产品多样化战略，计划推出 B 系列车型，其中首款紧 凑型 SUV B10 已于 10 月 14 日在巴黎车展全球首秀，预计将在 2025 年第 一季度末左右在国内上市。B10 基于全新的 Leap 3.5 架构打造，配备高 通 8,295 芯片及 AI 大模型，搭载激光雷达和高通最新 8,650 智驾芯片， 实现城市及高架领航等高阶辅助驾驶功能。 • 零跑汽车在研发方面持续加大投入，今年 ...

浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 公司研究 | 新能源汽车行业 零跑汽车（9863.HK）：三季度毛利率 大幅改善 我们重申零跑汽车的"买入"评级。我们上调零跑汽车（9863.HK）目 标价至 43.2 港元，潜在升幅 27%。 重申零跑汽车的"买入"评级：零跑三季度汽车销量大幅增长，同时 毛利率环比改善明显。根据当前新增订单情况，我们预期明年零跑的 新能源车销量有望冲击 50 万台。预计明年销量增长主要来源于 C 系列 的改款、B 系列的新增车型以及海外销量的增长。同时，借助平台化模 块化和多域融合，公司持续优化整车成本。进一步看，零跑将在明年 量产交付具备端到端 AI 大模型能力的车型，持续推动智驾平民化。零 跑汽车当前市销率为 0.9x，相较于可比新势力估值具备吸引力，重申 "买入"评级。 三季度汽车毛利率大幅改善，四季度料将持续提升：零跑三季度收入达 到人民币 98.6 亿元，同比增长 74%，环比增长 84%，超过我们此前预 测，主要得益于汽车销量大幅增长。三季度综合毛利率为 8.1%，同比 增长 6.9 个百分点，环比大幅改善，增长 5.3 个百分点。这主要因为 C10、C16 等车型产品占比提升 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2024, the company delivered 86,165 vehicles, representing a 61% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 94% increase year-over-year [2][3] - Revenue for Q3 reached 9.86 billion RMB, an 84% increase from the previous quarter and a 74% increase year-over-year [3][4] - Gross margin improved significantly to 8.1% in Q3, compared to 2.8% in Q2, with an average gross margin of 4.8% for the first nine months [5][6] - The net loss narrowed to 690 million RMB, showing substantial improvement compared to previous quarters [5][6] - The company reported a positive cash flow of 1.96 billion RMB in Q3, with cash reserves totaling 18.7 billion RMB [3][5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The C series models accounted for 78.3% of total deliveries in Q3, indicating a continuous optimization of the product mix [2][3] - The company achieved a total sales volume of 172,800 vehicles in the first nine months of 2024 [3][4] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expanded its domestic sales network to 493 sales outlets and 362 service centers by the end of September 2024 [3][4] - In Europe, the number of dealer outlets reached 339 by the end of October 2024, indicating a strong international presence [3][4] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to launch the new B series models, with the first model, B10, debuting at the Paris Auto Show and expected to be available in the domestic market by Q1 2025 [7][8] - The B series aims to target the compact SUV market priced between 100,000 to 150,000 RMB, which is a significant segment in China [7][8] - The company is focusing on maximizing platform sharing and integrating advanced technologies in its new models [6][7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about maintaining strong sales momentum, with expectations to exceed the annual sales target of 250,000 vehicles [9][10] - The company anticipates continued improvement in gross margins and a further reduction in net losses in Q4 2024 [9][10] - Management acknowledged challenges posed by geopolitical factors affecting the European market but remains committed to localizing production to enhance competitiveness [19][20] Other Important Information - The company is investing in R&D for AI and smart driving technologies, with plans to enhance its product offerings with advanced features [8][28] - The company aims to expand its sales channels to over 700 domestic sales outlets and 400 service centers by the end of 2024 [8][9] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the latest sales and gross margin guidance? - Management expects significant sales growth in Q4, with a gross margin improvement anticipated [11][12] Question: What is the production capacity planning for the B series? - The company is working on expanding production capacity, with plans for a new factory in Hangzhou to support the B series [14][15] Question: How is the company addressing the challenges in the European market? - Management highlighted the importance of localization to mitigate the impact of tariffs and enhance competitiveness in Europe [19][20] Question: What is the expected contribution of the B series to overall sales? - The B series is expected to significantly boost sales, with a target of reaching over 500,000 units in the next two years [12][13] Question: How does the company plan to compete in the smart driving segment? - The company is focusing on integrating advanced AI technologies and enhancing its smart driving capabilities in upcoming models [28][29]