汽车/乘用车 相关研究报告 《国内盈利超预期改善，出口规模稳 步兑现—港股公司信息更新报告》 -2024.11.14 《研发巩固智能化优势，海外出口步 入起量曲线—港股公司信息更新报 告》-2024.8.18 《国内新车周期启动，海外业务前景 可 期 — 港 股 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2024.5.20 ——港股公司信息更新报告 零跑汽车（09863.HK） 加速智驾确保领先优势，零部件合作提振长期前景 2025 年 03 月 12 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/3/11 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 47.100 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 47.500/18.640 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 629.71 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 525.83 | | 总股本(亿股) | 13.37 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 11.16 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 33.48 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -30% 0% 30% 60% 90% 120% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 零跑汽 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The company's Q4 performance exceeded expectations, with significant growth in vehicle deliveries and revenue, driven by improved cost efficiency and product mix [2][3]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with new vehicle launches planned for 2025 and a strong outlook for profitability in both domestic and international markets [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4, the company delivered 120,863 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 147.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 40.3%. Revenue for Q4 reached 13.455 billion yuan, up 144.6% year-on-year and 36.5% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle in Q4 was 111,300 yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 12.5% but a slight decrease of 2.7% from the previous quarter [1]. - For the full year 2024, total vehicle sales are projected at 294,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 103.8%, with revenue expected to reach 32.16 billion yuan, up 92% year-on-year [1]. Cost and Profitability - Q4 R&D, sales, and management expenses were 900 million, 370 million, and 690 million yuan respectively, with a decrease in expense ratios compared to the previous quarter [1]. - The gross margin for Q4 was 13.3%, an increase of 6.6 percentage points year-on-year and 5.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The company achieved a net profit of 80 million yuan in Q4, marking its first profitable quarter [1][2]. Growth Potential - The company plans to launch three new models in 2025, which are expected to enhance scale effects and platform reuse, potentially exceeding Q4 2024 sales and gross margin figures [3]. - The international expansion is anticipated to contribute significantly to profitability by 2026, with the domestic segment already positioned for breakeven [3]. - The company is advancing its autonomous driving capabilities, with plans to launch a city NOA solution by the end of 2025, positioning itself competitively against major players [3]. Long-term Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company are set at 59.72 billion yuan for 2025, 81.48 billion yuan for 2026, and 105.58 billion yuan for 2027, reflecting strong growth rates [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Leap Motor (9863.HK) with a target price of HKD 52.4, indicating a potential upside of 26% from the current price of HKD 41.5 [2][4][6]. Core Insights - Leap Motor's sales guidance for 2025 is strong, with expectations to exceed 500,000 vehicles sold, driven by new models and mid-cycle updates [6]. - The company aims for a gross margin of over 10%, supported by its self-developed core automotive electronic components and the LEAP 3.5 architecture [6]. - Leap Motor is expected to achieve profitability in 2025, aided by effective cost management and operational leverage [6]. - The current price-to-sales ratio of 0.9x suggests potential for valuation re-rating, making it attractive compared to peers in the new energy vehicle sector [6]. Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow significantly from RMB 16,747 million in 2023 to RMB 57,812 million in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 80% [3][10]. - Gross margin is expected to improve from 0.5% in 2023 to 10.8% in 2025, indicating enhanced profitability [3][10]. - Net losses are forecasted to decrease from RMB 4,216 million in 2023 to a near breakeven of RMB 49 million in 2025, with a return to profitability anticipated in 2026 [3][10]. - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 134.6 billion in Q4 2024, marking a 155% year-on-year increase [9]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts approach, applying a price-to-sales ratio of 1.1x for automotive sales and 1.0x for services and other revenues, leading to a target price of HKD 52.4 [11].

3 月 10 日晚，零跑汽车发布 24Q4 及 24 年全年业绩： 1、营收：Q4 零跑交付汽车 120863 辆，同/环比+147.9%/+40.3%，Q4 营收 134.55 亿元，同/环比+144.6%/+36.5%。我们计算 Q4 单车 ASP 11.13 万元，同/环比+12.5%/-2.7%。24 年零跑总销量 29.4 万辆， 同比+103.8%，营收 321.6 亿元，同比+92%，单车 ASP 10.95 万元， 同比-13.2%。 2、费用：Q4 研发/销售/管理费用分别为 9.0/3.7/6.9 亿元，研发/ 管理/销售费用率分别为 6.7%/2.7%/5.1%，环比-1.2/-0.7/-0.5pct。 3、利润：Q4 毛利率 13.3%，同/环比+6.6/+5.2pct；归母净利 0.8 亿 元，首次实现盈利；我们计算 Q4 单车盈利 0.07 万元。24 年全年公 司毛利率 8.4%，同比+7.9pct；归母净利-28.2 亿元，单车亏损 0.96 万元。 1、业绩整体符合预期。受：1）Q4 公司销量大幅提振月均破 4 万， LEAP 3.0 加持下平台化率提升到 88%，规模效应、 ...

2025 年 3 月 11 日 | 产业别 | | 汽车 | | --- | --- | --- | | H 股价(2025/03/10) | | 41.50 | | 恒生指数(2025/03/10) | | 23,783.5 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | 41.75/19.54 | | 总发行股数(百万) | | 1,336.97 | | H 股数(百万) | | 1,116.41 | | H 市值(亿元) | | 347.61 | | 主要股东 | 陈爱玲(25.09%) | | | 每股净值(元) | | 7.53 | | 股价/账面净值 | | 5.51 | | 一个月 | 三个月 | 一年 | | 股价涨跌(%) 17.40% | 48.75% 59.31% | | 近期评等 | 出刊日期 | 前日收盘 | 评等 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-2-21 | 33.45 | 买进 | 产品组合 汽车 100% 股价相对大盘走势 C o m p a n y U p d a t e C h i n a R e s e a r c h D e p t . | 沈嘉婕 | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Leap Motor (零跑汽车) with a target price of HKD 50 [1][3]. Core Insights - The pricing of the new B10 electric SUV is highly competitive, with a pre-sale price range of RMB 109,800 to 139,800, which may lead to an increase in sales forecasts for 2025 [1]. - The company is expected to achieve breakeven in 2025, with a projected gross margin increase and a significant rise in total revenue [2]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are set to grow significantly, with expectations of reaching RMB 510 billion and RMB 575 billion respectively [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Leap Motor's B10 model is anticipated to boost sales, with an upward revision of 25,000 units for the 2025 sales forecast, raising total sales expectations from 450,000 to 480,000 units [1]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the gross margin increased by 5.2 percentage points to 13.3%, with total revenue rising by 37% to RMB 13.5 billion, marking the first net profit of RMB 81 million [2]. - The overall gross margin for 2025 is expected to improve by 2.9 percentage points to 11.2%, driven by cost reductions from the Leap 3.5 platform [2]. Future Projections - Revenue for 2025 is projected to grow by 59% year-on-year, reaching RMB 510 billion, while 2026 is expected to see a net profit of RMB 1.26 billion with the launch of new models [3]. - The target price has been raised to HKD 50 based on a price-to-sales ratio of 1.2x for FY25, aligning with the average valuation multiples of new energy vehicle manufacturers in China [3].

零跑汽车 摘要 • 零跑汽车 2025 年销售目标为 50 万辆，基于 2024 年月均销量 3-4 万辆， 将推出 B 系列三款新车并全面更新至 3.5 架构平台，C 系列也将进行质量 提升和高阶智驾切换，续航里程平均提升 50 公里。 Q&A 零跑汽车在 2024 年的业绩表现如何？ • 零跑汽车预测，至 2027-2028 年中国新能源汽车渗透率将达 80%- 90%，电动车经济性将推动全球市场发展，使用成本仅为燃油车的四分之 一，部分地区甚至更低。 • 中国市场全面电动化将削弱传统燃油车企（如 BBA）的市场份额，中国新 能源车企的全球渗透将进一步侵蚀其优势，电动化趋势将逐步扩展至全球。 • 智能化是电动车下半场的关键，预计 2025 年高架高速路段将实现高度智 能驾驶，城市智能驾驶也将逐步普及，推动中国乃至全球电动车市场发展。 • 中国车企已成为全球电动车市场的重要参与者，零跑汽车电动车出货量位 居全球第 11 名，预计 2024-2025 年销量和排名将进一步提升，中国企业 在电池、电驱动、芯片等核心零部件上具备优势。 • 中国在全球汽车产业中占据主导地位，尤其在碳化硅驱动模块等零部件方 面，预计 ...

智驾平权加速渗透，看好比亚迪、零跑汽车 摘要 • 新能源汽车渗透率加速提升重塑行业竞争格局，比亚迪发布全新智能驾驶 战略，全系标配天成智驾，推动智驾平权，超出市场预期。 • 吉利发布千里浩瀚高阶智驾方案，包括高速 N 微分和城市文化功能，将陆 续搭载于银河系列车型。 • 零跑汽车发布 B10，首次在 12 万元级别车型搭载激光雷达高阶智驾，全 系标配自动泊车，支持高速 A 及城区 CNAP 功能，实现智驾平权。 • 整车资产支架全面升级推动行情扩散，整车投资机会在于智能化赋能后的 销量和利润提升，零部件机会在于硬件公司业绩兑现和新技术供应商估值 提升。 • 比亚迪订单中智驾版占比受新旧款切换影响，清库缓慢经销商占比可达 50%以上，预计三月中下旬智驾版订单将全面爆发。 • 比亚迪核心竞争力在于成本控制能力，销量规模效应降低单车固定成本， 上游供应链优势支持其估值上行。 • 零跑汽车工程化能力强大，快速迭代至全新平台，B10 实现高速 NOA 等 功能，并推广至所有车型，24 年四季度首次实现净利润转正，毛利率达 13.3%，销量预计持续增长，PS 较低，股价上涨潜力大。 Q&A 2025 年乘用车板块的整体变 ...

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 新能源汽车行业 零跑汽车（9863.HK）：2025 年销量 指引强劲，盈利大幅改善可期 我们重申零跑汽车的"买入"评级。我们上调零跑汽车（9863.HK）目 标价至 52.4 港元，潜在升幅 26%。 图表 1：盈利预测和财务指标（2023-2027E） | 人民币百万元 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营收 | 16,747 | 32,164 | 57,812 | 73,022 | 92,746 | | 营收同比增速 | 35% | 92% | 80% | 26% | 27% | | 毛利率 | 0.5% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 12.8% | 15.9% | | 净利润（损失） | (4,216) | (2,821) | (49) | 1,889 | 6,215 | | 净利润同比增速 | (17%) | (33%) | (98%) | NM | 229% | | 目标市销率 (x) | 3.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0. ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [3][7]. Core Insights - The company is entering a rapid growth phase, with expected continuous improvement in performance. The recent launch of the B10 model has generated significant market interest, with over 15,000 orders within the first hour of pre-sale [7]. - The company focuses on high cost-performance products, establishing a competitive advantage in the market. It maintains a self-research approach for over 70% of its core components, supporting rapid product iteration [7]. - The company is projected to achieve profitability in 2025, with net profits expected to reach 1.89 billion RMB, 22.4 billion RMB, and 43.9 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][9]. Company Overview - The company operates in the automotive industry, with a current stock price of HKD 41.50 as of March 10, 2025. The market capitalization is approximately 34.76 billion RMB [2]. - The company has a total share issuance of 1,336.97 million shares, with 1,116.41 million shares listed as H shares [2]. - Major shareholder includes Chen Ailing, holding 25.09% of the shares [2]. Financial Performance - For the year 2024, the company reported a revenue of 32.16 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 92.1%. The net loss was reduced to 2.82 billion RMB, an improvement of 1.39 billion RMB compared to 2023 [7][9]. - The company achieved a gross margin of 8.38% for the year, with a significant increase in quarterly gross margin to 13.3% in Q4 2024 [7]. - Free cash flow turned positive at 6.32 billion RMB, a substantial increase from a negative cash flow of 320 million RMB in the previous year [7]. Sales Projections - The company aims to sell between 500,000 to 600,000 vehicles in 2025, with a projected monthly sales volume of 20,000 to 25,000 units for the B10 model after its official launch [7]. - The sales target reflects a doubling of sales volume compared to the previous year, supported by new model launches and upgrades [7].