点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 本文为中国汽车流通协会乘用车市场信息联席分会发布的权威深度市场分析报告，涵盖了： 一、整体总市场 二、 新能源市场 三、 厂商表现 四、 车型大类细分市场 五、 品牌定位细分市场 六、 国别定位细分市场 七、 价格定位细分市场 Contents 说明: 总市场 (轿车、MPV、SUV) : ICE+BEV+PHEV 在市场（轿车、MPV、SUV）： BEV+PHEV ICE： 燃油车 NEV : 新能源 BEV： 纯电动 Ph 纯电动 PHEV: 插电混动 NEV= BEV (含FCV) +PHEV (含EREV) 产销数据来源 中国汽车流通协会乘用车市场信息联席分会月报表（零售表，狭义汇总） -终稿 未计入份额低于2%的细分市场 豪华品牌: 奔驰、宝马、奥迪、凯迪拉克、捷豹、路虎、沃尔沃、英菲尼迪、讴歌、特斯拉 价格 以起步市场指导价划分 分为10万以下、10-20万、20-30万、30-40万、40万以上五档 > 整体息市场 | 整体总市场零售月度走势 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Core Viewpoint - The rapid expansion of Leap Motor in the competitive electric vehicle market has led to significant product quality issues and a collective complaint from users, highlighting the need for better quality control and customer service [1][5]. Group 1: Product Quality Issues - Leap Motor has faced a wave of complaints regarding product defects, including issues with driving stability, lane-keeping functionality, and the automatic parking system, which has been reported as unusable in most parking spaces [2][4]. - Users have reported discrepancies in battery range, with some claiming a reduction of up to 30%, and issues with the vehicle's hardware not supporting software updates that were promised at the time of purchase [2][3]. - The company has been criticized for its handling of complaints, with responses being largely procedural and failing to address core user concerns such as system updates and free access to smart driving services [4][5]. Group 2: User Response and Company Actions - Over 100 users have participated in collective complaints, indicating a significant increase in dissatisfaction, with the number of participants growing more than fivefold since the initial complaints began [2][4]. - The company's response to the complaints has been inadequate, with a lack of substantial engagement on critical issues raised by users, leading to an escalation of the situation [4][5]. - The case of Leap Motor serves as a reminder that rapid market growth should not come at the expense of product quality and customer service, as neglecting these areas can severely damage brand reputation and user trust [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Leap Motor (09863.HK) with a target price of HKD 66, corresponding to a valuation of HKD 885 billion, which is 1.5x the estimated 2025 P/S ratio [4][7]. Core Views - Leap Motor achieved profitability in Q4 2024, with expectations for full-year profitability in 2025. Q4 2024 sales exceeded 120,000 units, leading to revenue of RMB 13.44 billion and a gross margin improvement of 6.6 percentage points year-on-year to 13.3% [1][4]. - The launch of the LEAP 3.5 technology architecture and the B10 model is expected to drive strong product cycles, with pre-sale orders for the B10 model reaching 31,688 units within 48 hours [2][4]. - A strategic partnership with FAW aims to enhance cost and scale advantages through joint development and component cooperation, potentially lowering production costs [3][4]. Financial Summary - The projected sales volume for Leap Motor is expected to exceed 500,000 units in 2025, with total revenue forecasted at RMB 54.94 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 71% [4][13]. - The company anticipates a net profit margin of 0.6% in 2025, improving to 6.2% by 2027, with net profit estimates of RMB 336 million in 2025 and RMB 6.036 billion in 2027 [4][12]. - Key financial metrics include a projected revenue of RMB 32.16 billion in 2024, increasing to RMB 54.94 billion in 2025, with a gross profit of RMB 5.968 billion and a gross margin of 10.9% [6][13].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, indicating an expected total return over the next 12-18 months that exceeds the relevant market benchmark [11]. Core Insights - Leapmotor achieved a revenue of RMB 32.16 billion in 2024, a 92% year-over-year increase, and a net loss of RMB 2.82 billion, significantly narrowing from the previous year [11]. - The company reported a quarterly revenue of RMB 13.46 billion in Q4 2024, marking a 155% year-over-year increase and a net profit of RMB 80 million, turning positive ahead of schedule [11]. - The gross profit margin for the year was 8.4%, up 7.9 percentage points year-over-year, with Q4 gross profit margin reaching 13.3% [11]. - Leapmotor's strategic partnerships and international expansion efforts are accelerating, with over 400 sales service outlets established and a target of 550 by 2025 [11]. - The company launched the B10 model, featuring advanced intelligent driving technology, with pre-sale orders reaching 31,688 units within 48 hours [11]. Financial Data and Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 55.3 billion in 2025, RMB 86.5 billion in 2026, and RMB 100 billion in 2027, with net profits expected to be RMB 400 million, RMB 1.7 billion, and RMB 4.4 billion respectively [11]. - The report estimates a price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 1.1 for 2025, with a target price of HKD 59.07 based on the current market conditions [11]. - The company is expected to benefit from the expansion of the economic smart car market in the RMB 100,000-200,000 range [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Leapmotor (09863.HK) [1] Core Insights - Leapmotor's Q4 2024 performance turned profitable with a net profit of 0.8 million yuan, a significant improvement from a net loss of 9.5 million yuan in Q4 2023 [7] - The company achieved a total revenue of 13.455 billion yuan in Q4 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 154.9% [7] - The strong sales performance in Q4, with 121,000 vehicles sold, represents a year-on-year growth of 118.4% [7] - The gross margin for Q4 was 13.3%, exceeding expectations due to scale effects and cost management [7] - Leapmotor's overseas expansion is progressing, with 13,726 vehicles exported and plans to establish over 550 overseas sales and service outlets by 2025 [7] - The launch of the B10 model received over 31,688 orders within 48 hours, indicating strong market demand [7] - The report projects a significant increase in net profit for 2025 and 2026, with estimates of 2.0 billion yuan and 25.4 billion yuan respectively [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is reported at 16.747 billion yuan, with projections of 32.164 billion yuan for 2024, representing a growth rate of 92.06% [1] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be a loss of 2.821 billion yuan, but a profit of 204.24 million yuan is projected for 2025 [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to improve from a loss of 3.15 yuan in 2023 to a profit of 2.72 yuan by 2027 [1] - The company's asset-liability ratio stands at 73.25%, indicating a relatively high level of debt [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Leapmotor (09863.HK) [1] Core Insights - Leapmotor's Q4 2024 performance turned profitable with a net profit of 0.8 million yuan, a significant improvement from a loss of 9.5 billion yuan in Q4 2023 [7] - The company achieved a total revenue of 13.455 billion yuan in Q4 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 154.9% [7] - The sales volume in Q4 reached 121,000 units, marking a year-on-year growth of 118.4% [7] - The gross margin for Q4 was reported at 13.3%, exceeding expectations due to scale effects and cost management [7] - Leapmotor's B10 model received over 31,688 orders within 48 hours of its launch, indicating strong market demand [7] - The company plans to expand its overseas channels to over 550 by 2025, having already established 400 sales and service points [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 32.164 billion yuan in 2024 to 101.817 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 49.03% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to turn positive in 2025, reaching 204.24 million yuan, and further increasing to 3.630 billion yuan by 2027 [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to improve from -2.11 yuan in 2024 to 2.72 yuan in 2027 [1]

上 市 公 司 汽车 2025 年 03 月 16 日 零跑汽车 (09863) ——24 年业绩&B10 预售价双超预期 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 14 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 48.05 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8877.99 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 50.40/18.64 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 642.41 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 1,116.41 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0834 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -25% 25% 75% 125% HSCEI 零跑汽车 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 樊夏沛 A0230523080004 fanxp@swsresearch.com 研究支持 邵翼 A0230524120001 shaoyi@swsresearch.com 联系人 邵翼 (8621)23297818× shaoyi@swsresearch ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, indicating an expected total return over the next 12-18 months that exceeds the relevant market benchmark [3][11]. Core Insights - Leapmotor achieved a revenue of RMB 32.16 billion in 2024, a 92% year-over-year increase, aligning with the forecast of at least RMB 30.5 billion [3][11]. - The company reported a narrowed net loss of RMB 2.82 billion for the year, with Q4 2024 showing a revenue of RMB 13.46 billion, up 155% year-over-year and a net profit of RMB 80 million, marking a positive turnaround [3][11]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) for the year was 8.4%, up 7.9 percentage points year-over-year, with Q4 GPM reaching 13.3%, driven by product mix optimization and cost management [3][11]. - Leapmotor's strategic cooperation with Stellantis Financial Services aims to enhance financial services for distributors and consumers, while the company plans to expand its sales service network to 550 outlets by 2025 [3][11]. Financial Data and Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 55.3 billion, RMB 86.5 billion, and RMB 100 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at RMB 400 million, RMB 1.7 billion, and RMB 4.4 billion for the same years [3][11]. - The report highlights a significant increase in vehicle deliveries, with a total of 294,000 new cars delivered in 2024, a 104% increase year-over-year [3][11]. - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle in Q4 was approximately RMB 111,000, reflecting a year-over-year increase of RMB 16,000 [3][11]. Market Position and Strategy - Leapmotor is positioned as a leading smart electric vehicle company in China, focusing on innovation and self-developed technology to create value for users [3][11]. - The company is expanding its product lineup, with the recent pre-sale of the B10 model, which features advanced intelligent driving capabilities at a competitive price point [3][11]. - The report emphasizes the potential growth opportunities in the RMB 100,000-200,000 economic smart car market, supported by the company's light asset overseas model in collaboration with Stellantis [3][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Leap Motor (零跑汽车) [1] Core Insights - Leap Motor's total sales for 2024 reached 293,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 103.8%, with total revenue of 32.16 billion yuan, up 92.0% year-on-year. The gross margin improved to 8.4%, an increase of 7.9 percentage points year-on-year, and the net loss was reduced to 2.82 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.4 billion yuan year-on-year [4][5] - The B10 model, which is Leap Motor's first intelligent vehicle, has a pre-sale price range of 109,800 to 139,800 yuan, and is expected to significantly boost sales with its competitive features [4] - The company is expected to further improve its gross margin to over 10% in 2025, driven by scale effects, product structure optimization, and cost reductions [4] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - For 2024, the company forecasts total revenue of 32.16 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of 92%. By 2025, revenue is expected to reach 57.01 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 77% [5] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 98 million yuan, with a significant turnaround from previous losses, and is expected to grow to 3.12 billion yuan by 2027 [5][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.07 yuan in 2025, turning positive for the first time [5][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - In February, the company delivered 25,287 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 285.1% and a month-on-month increase of 0.5%. Cumulatively, the company delivered over 50,000 vehicles in the first two months of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 167.8%. The company anticipates continued sales growth driven by a strong new car cycle and overseas expansion through collaboration with Stellantis [2][4][6]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The company achieved a delivery of 25,287 vehicles in February, marking a year-on-year growth of 285.1% and a slight month-on-month growth of 0.5%. The total deliveries for January and February reached over 50,000 vehicles, which is a 167.8% increase year-on-year [2][4]. Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about future sales growth, with a target of 500,000 vehicles for 2025. The upcoming launch of the B10 model on March 10 is expected to further boost sales. The company plans to introduce 2-3 new products globally each year over the next three years, with three models from the B series planned for 2025 [6]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on a strong new car cycle and competitive pricing to enhance sales. It has established a "1+N" channel development model in China, with 860 stores as of the end of 2024. Internationally, the company has 339 stores in Europe and aims to exceed 500 globally by 2025 [6]. Technological Advancements - The company is investing in advanced driving technology, planning to implement high-level driving functions based on a new architecture in the first half of 2025. The B10 model will be the first in its price range to feature laser radar for urban driving [6].