（文章来源：第一财经） 9月25日，零跑汽车宣布，第100万台整车正式下线。 ...

标的方面 推荐：1)规模已成、领先布局出海的中国自主车企：比亚迪（002594）(01211)、零跑汽车(09863)、长 城汽车（601633）(601633.SH)、吉利汽车(00175)、小鹏汽车(09868)等。2)随着欧美日车企电动智能转 型，深耕全球、技术领先的国际化零部件白马将迎来戴维斯双击：敏实集团(00425)、福耀玻璃 中金发布研报称，全球汽车正处于格局重构阶段，2025年中国汽车已完成出口扩张，即将迎来出海加 速，预计2030年中国自主品牌车企有望实现全球近3000万辆的产量规模，并培育数家年产500万辆以上 的车企。全球消费者对电动智能技术认知已建立，欧美日车企加速产品投放，非中国市场的新能源渗透 率，将从拖累转向加速。因此，建议对应关注中国自主车企的出海扩张机遇；欧美日车企加速新能源转 型，拉动的中国供应链机遇。 中金主要观点如下： 中国汽车电动智能变革基本完成，立足出口走向出海 中金预计2025年中国汽车新能源渗透率突破50%，依托技术变革优势，中国自主品牌实现本土新能源市 场份额的领先(新能源上险口径8M25达89%)；依托规模优势和运营效率，中国蝉联汽车出口全球第一， 自主车企 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive industry [1][9][10] Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing stable growth, with production and sales showing month-on-month increases. In August, production reached 2.8154 million vehicles, and sales reached 2.8566 million vehicles, representing month-on-month growth of 8.66% and 10.15% respectively [9][27] - The report highlights the positive impact of government policies aimed at stabilizing growth in the automotive sector, including the implementation of a vehicle trade-in program and measures to address industry competition [9][89] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) continues to rise, reaching 48.84% in August, with production and sales of NEVs at 1.3905 million and 1.3953 million vehicles respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 27.35% and 26.84% [9][67] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Review - As of September 22, the automotive (CITIC) industry index increased by 4.46%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.88 percentage points, ranking 5th among 30 CITIC primary industries [13][17] - Over half of the stocks in the automotive sector saw gains, with 230 out of 260 stocks rising [19][20] - The industry valuation has slightly improved, with a PE (TTM) of 34.84 times, ranking 15th among CITIC primary industries [21][22] 2. Key Industry Data Tracking 2.1 Industry Overview - In August, the automotive industry returned to growth, with production and sales showing significant increases compared to previous months [27][33] - The inventory level of automotive dealers remains below the warning line, indicating healthy market conditions [27][30] 2.2 Passenger Vehicles: Production and Sales Growth - In August, production and sales of passenger vehicles reached 2.5001 million and 2.5403 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 12.54% and 16.46% [41][51] - Domestic brands accounted for 69.53% of the market share, showing a year-on-year increase [51][54] 2.3 Commercial Vehicles: New Energy Heavy Truck Market Share Hits Record High - In August, commercial vehicle production and sales reached 315,300 and 316,300 units respectively, with significant year-on-year growth [59][61] - The market share of new energy heavy trucks reached a record high of 26.61% in August [61][62] 2.4 New Energy Vehicles: Penetration Rate Continues to Rise - The production and sales of new energy vehicles in August were 1.3905 million and 1.3953 million respectively, with a penetration rate of 48.84% [67][71] - Cumulative production and sales of new energy vehicles from January to August reached 9.625 million and 9.620 million respectively, with a market share of 45.53% [67][81] 3. Important Industry Company News - The report discusses the recent launch of several new models, including the Model Y L and Model 3, highlighting the ongoing innovation in the automotive sector [87][90] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a plan to stabilize growth in the automotive industry, aiming for a total vehicle sales target of approximately 32.3 million units in 2025 [89][90]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [4][7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to launch multiple new products, enhancing its product matrix and driving sales growth. The upcoming launch of the Leap D19, a luxury flagship SUV, is anticipated to significantly impact market positioning [8][9]. - The company has established a competitive advantage in the 100,000 to 200,000 RMB price range, with plans to expand into the market above 200,000 RMB. The focus on self-research and development for over 70% of core components supports high cost-performance products and rapid product iteration [9]. - The company is projected to achieve profitability by 2025, with net profits expected to reach 895 million RMB, 4.095 billion RMB, and 5.662 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.67 RMB, 3.06 RMB, and 4.24 RMB for the same years [9][11]. Company Overview - The company operates primarily in the automotive industry, with 99% of its product portfolio focused on vehicles [5]. - As of September 19, 2025, the company's H-share price was 64.95 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 55.885 billion HKD [3]. - The company has seen a significant increase in sales, with a year-on-year growth of 136% in the first eight months of 2025, totaling 328,800 vehicles sold [11]. Product Development and Market Strategy - The Leap D19 is set to be launched on October 16, 2025, and is expected to compete in the high-end SUV market, with a price range of 250,000 to 300,000 RMB [9]. - The company has also showcased the Leap Lafa5, a pure electric hatchback, at the Munich Auto Show, targeting a younger demographic with a price range of 100,000 to 150,000 RMB [9]. - The company aims to achieve a sales target of 1 million vehicles by 2026, representing a growth of 54% to 72% compared to 2025 [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, highlighting key investment opportunities in domestic leading manufacturers and component suppliers [3][5]. Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced a significant sales increase in Q2 2025, with total sales reaching 8.18 million units, a year-on-year growth of 11.6%. Passenger vehicle sales were 7.11 million units, up 13.0% year-on-year, while commercial vehicle sales were 1.07 million units, up 3.4% year-on-year [4][21]. - The report emphasizes the performance divergence among companies, particularly in the passenger vehicle sector, where companies like BYD faced margin pressures, while others like Great Wall and Seres showed strong performance [4][28]. - The report identifies key investment themes, including technology, mid-to-high-end market focus, and state-owned enterprise reforms, recommending companies such as NIO, Xiaomi, and Xpeng for investment [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The automotive industry showed resilience with a total sales increase, driven by government policies and export growth, alleviating previous concerns about demand [21][4]. 2. Passenger Vehicles - Passenger vehicle sales reached 7.11 million units in Q2 2025, with exports contributing significantly to growth. The sector's revenue was 724.4 billion yuan, up 13.3% year-on-year, but net profit fell by 36.0% [26][28]. - The report notes that the performance of individual companies varied, with BYD experiencing profit pressure while others like Seres and Great Wall performed well [28][32]. 3. Components Sector - The components sector reported revenue of 374.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, with net profit rising by 5.9%. The sector's resilience is attributed to global market expansion and increased efficiency [46][47]. - The report highlights the "Matthew Effect" in the components sector, where leading companies are better positioned to withstand market pressures due to diversified customer bases and global operations [47][46]. 4. New Energy Vehicles - New energy vehicle sales reached 3.86 million units in Q2 2025, marking a 37.0% year-on-year increase, with a penetration rate of 47.2%. The sector's revenue was 331.7 billion yuan, up 18.7% year-on-year [4][25]. 5. Commercial Vehicles - The commercial vehicle sector showed signs of recovery, with bus sales increasing by 5.3% year-on-year and truck sales slightly rebounding, although profitability remains under pressure [4][25].

该行认为，随着OEM在新能源车的产品布局日益完善，在各价格范围内具备规模优势的企业，将最有 可能受益。同时认为，采用双轨定位，即内燃机车型和新能源车型的OEM，在2026年的竞争中更具优 势，因这能在可能的政策变化中提供对冲保护。 中信里昂发布研报称，根据本周中国汽车订单情况，认为新车型周期仍是2026年的重要催化剂。总体而 言，该行看好比亚迪（002594）控股(01211)、吉利汽车(00175)和零跑汽车(09863)，因其规模优势及稳 定的平均销售价格。 报告中称，理想汽车-W(02015)承诺加速其车型管线，吉利汽车银河系列则计划明年保持与今年相同的 新产品推出量。然而，该行预计主要整车制造商(OEM)的产品组合将从2026年逐步稳定，并以比亚迪控 股的策略，即优先改款车型而非全新车型，以及主要国际OEM为基准。 ...

报告中称，理想汽车-W(02015)承诺加速其车型管线，吉利汽车银河系列则计划明年保持与今年相同的 新产品推出量。然而，该行预计主要整车制造商(OEM)的产品组合将从2026年逐步稳定，并以比亚迪控 股的策略，即优先改款车型而非全新车型，以及主要国际OEM为基准。 该行认为，随着OEM在新能源车的产品布局日益完善，在各价格范围内具备规模优势的企业，将最有 可能受益。同时认为，采用双轨定位，即内燃机车型和新能源车型的OEM，在2026年的竞争中更具优 势，因这能在可能的政策变化中提供对冲保护。 智通财经APP获悉，中信里昂发布研报称，根据本周中国汽车订单情况，认为新车型周期仍是2026年的 重要催化剂。总体而言，该行看好比亚迪控股(01211)、吉利汽车(00175)和零跑汽车(09863)，因其规模 优势及稳定的平均销售价格。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the 37th week of 2025 (from September 8th to September 14th), the single - week retail sales of passenger cars were 453,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.1%. Since the beginning of this year, the retail sales have reached 1.5182 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. The single - week retail sales of new energy passenger cars were 270,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. Since the beginning of this year, the retail sales have reached 791,500 units, a year - on - year increase of 22.7%. The year - on - year growth rate has slowed down due to the high base and the termination of subsidies in some regions this year [1][11]. - The single - week penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 59.6%, and the cumulative penetration rate for the year was 52.1%, showing a slow upward trend [1][21]. - The new energy vehicle market pattern is constantly changing. Traditional car companies such as Geely, Changan, and Chery are achieving excellent performance in new energy vehicle sales, and new brands like Xiaomi are bringing new variables to the market. Car companies like BYD, Tesla, and Li Auto have negative year - on - year growth, while XPeng, NIO, Leapmotor, Xiaomi, and Voyah maintain relatively high growth rates [2][27]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Passenger Car Market Weekly Overview - In the 37th week of 2025, the single - week retail sales of passenger cars were 453,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.1%. Since the beginning of this year, the retail sales have reached 1.5182 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. The single - week retail sales of new energy passenger cars were 270,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. Since the beginning of this year, the retail sales have reached 791,500 units, a year - on - year increase of 22.7%. The growth rate has slowed down due to the high base and subsidy termination [1][11]. - By power type, in passenger cars, traditional fuel, hybrid, and new energy vehicles had retail sales of 167,000 units, 16,000 units, and 270,000 units respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 16.2%, - 15.1%, and 6.3%, accounting for 36.8%, 3.6%, and 59.6% of passenger cars respectively. In new energy passenger cars, pure - electric, plug - in hybrid, and extended - range vehicles had retail sales of 180,000 units, 68,000 units, and 23,000 units respectively, with year - on - year changes of 23.0%, - 14.5%, and - 21.3%, accounting for 66.5%, 25.1%, and 8.4% of new energy passenger cars respectively [22]. - By production attribute, in passenger cars, self - owned and joint - venture brands had retail sales of 307,000 units and 147,000 units respectively, with year - on - year changes of 2.9% and - 16.0%, accounting for 67.7% and 32.3% of passenger cars respectively. In new energy passenger cars, self - owned and joint - venture brands had retail sales of 243,000 units and 27,000 units respectively, with year - on - year changes of 7.9% and - 6.1%, accounting for 89.8% and 10.2% of new energy passenger cars respectively [24]. 3.2 Key New Energy Vehicle Companies' Sales Analysis - **Overall Situation**: In the 37th week, BYD sold 71,000 units, Geely Automobile 33,000 units, SAIC - GM - Wuling 19,000 units, Tesla (China) 15,000 units, Changan Automobile 14,000 units, Chery Automobile 10,000 units, and Hongmeng Zhixing 10,000 units. Among new - force car companies, Leapmotor sold 13,000 units, Xiaomi 10,000 units, Wenjie 9,000 units, XPeng and Li Auto 8,000 units each, and NIO 6,000 units [2][27]. - **BYD**: The weekly sales were 71,000 units. Since July, the year - on - year growth rate has turned negative. The cumulative sales this year reached 2.28 million units, with a year - on - year growth rate of 2.6%. The sales of pure - electric and plug - in hybrid (including extended - range) models are basically half and half. From January to August this year, the global cumulative sales were 2.864 million units, and the overseas cumulative sales of passenger cars and pick - up trucks were 630,000 units [31]. - **Geely Automobile**: The weekly sales were 49,000 units, including 33,000 new energy vehicles. The electrification rate of the car company is about 67%. The cumulative sales this year reached 1.591 million units, with a year - on - year growth of 48.2%, and the cumulative new energy sales were 942,000 units, with a year - on - year growth of 99.3% [33]. - **SAIC - GM - Wuling**: The overall weekly sales of passenger cars were 20,000 units, including 19,000 new energy vehicles. The electrification rate of the car company is as high as 91%. The cumulative sales this year reached 573,000 units, with a growth rate of 19.8%, and the new energy sales were 492,000 units, with a growth rate of 36.1%. Pure - electric models dominate the sales [36]. - **Changan Automobile**: The overall weekly sales of passenger cars were 23,000 units, including 14,000 new energy vehicles. The electrification rate of the car company is about 59%. The cumulative sales this year reached 821,000 units, with a year - on - year growth of 2.0%, and the new energy sales were 408,000 units, with a year - on - year growth of 18.7% [41]. - **Chery Automobile**: The overall weekly sales of passenger cars were 23,000 units, including 10,000 new energy vehicles. The electrification rate of the car company is about 43%. The cumulative sales this year reached 843,000 units, with a year - on - year growth of 24.0%, and the new energy sales were 302,000 units, with a year - on - year growth of 66.7% [46]. - **Tesla**: The weekly sales in China were 15,000 units. The cumulative sales this year reached 395,000 units, with a year - on - year negative growth of - 6.7%. The sales of Model 3, Model Y, and Model Y L were about 5,000 units, 9,000 units, and 1,000 units respectively. Tesla has launched multiple preferential activities this year, and the price of the long - range version of Model 3 has increased since July 1st [51]. - **Hongmeng Zhixing**: The weekly sales were 10,000 units, including about 9,000 units of Wenjie. The Shangjie H5, a new car in cooperation with SAIC, is planned to be officially launched in September [54]. - **New - Force Car Companies**: Leapmotor sold 13,000 units, Xiaomi 10,000 units, Wenjie 9,000 units, XPeng and Li Auto 8,000 units each, and NIO 6,000 units. XPeng, NIO, Leapmotor, Xiaomi, Voyah, etc. maintained relatively high year - on - year growth rates [62].

Domestic News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is soliciting public opinions on the mandatory national standard for "Intelligent Connected Vehicles Combination Driving Assistance System Safety Requirements," aiming to enhance safety in the intelligent connected vehicle industry [6] - The Ministry of Commerce has announced the establishment of five industry standardization technical committees, including those for the automotive circulation and resource recovery industries [7] - The Horgos Port in Xinjiang has achieved a record high in automobile exports, with 258,000 vehicles exported from January to August 2025, marking an 8.5% year-on-year increase, including 102,000 electric vehicles, which saw a 45.2% increase [8] - Dongfeng Group has formed a new joint venture with local state-owned assets in Xiangyang, with a registered capital of 8.47 billion RMB, focusing on the development and sales of intelligent vehicles [9] - Leap Motor has announced the restart of its automobile manufacturing plans in Europe, with plans to launch two new models to meet market demand starting in 2026 [10] - GAC International has launched the AION UT in Indonesia, with prices ranging from 32.5 to 36.3 million Indonesian Rupiah (approximately 140,600 to 157,000 RMB) [11] - Hello Robotaxi has received strategic investment from Alibaba, indicating a deepening collaboration in the fields of intelligent driving models and commercializing Robotaxi services [12] - CATL's sodium-ion battery can provide over 500 kilometers of pure electric range, with a density of 175Wh/kg, meeting over 40% of the domestic passenger vehicle market demand [13] International News - South Korea's electric vehicle sales from January to August 2025 reached 142,456 units, a 48.4% increase from 95,998 units in the same period last year, with electric vehicles accounting for 12.7% of new registrations [15] - Japan's exports to the U.S. have declined for five consecutive months, with an August drop of 13.8% due to decreased exports of automobiles and machinery [16] - BMW will begin production of the iX3 model in Hungary next month, with the first mass-produced vehicle expected to roll off the line by the end of 2025 [17] - Waymo has received permission to test its autonomous taxi service at San Francisco International Airport, with plans to gradually roll out commercial services [18] Commercial Vehicles - FAW Jiefang has been nominated for the fifth China Quality Award for its "12347-E2E Excellent Operation Quality Management Model," highlighting advancements in quality management within the commercial vehicle sector [20] - JD Automotive and ZF have signed a memorandum to deepen their strategic cooperation in the commercial vehicle aftermarket, aiming to create an efficient and intelligent service ecosystem [21] - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group showcased nine core products at the Liangshan Special Vehicle Exhibition, emphasizing its leadership in the transition to new energy and intelligent vehicles [22] - Qingling Group has had three products selected as major industrial technology innovation products in Chongqing, showcasing advancements in hydrogen fuel cell and specialized vehicle technology [23][24]

Core Insights - In August 2025, the automotive production and sales reached 2.815 million and 2.857 million units respectively, with month-on-month growth of 8.7% and 10.1%, and year-on-year growth of 13% and 16.4% [2][3] - For the week of September 1-7, 2025, retail sales of passenger cars were 304,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 10% and a month-on-month decrease of 4%, while wholesale sales were 307,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 5% but a month-on-month increase of 9% [2][3] Weekly Market Performance - During the week of September 8-12, 2025, the CS automotive index rose by 0.21%, while the CS passenger vehicle index fell by 0.37%, and the CS commercial vehicle index decreased by 1.06% [2] - The CS automotive parts index increased by 0.72%, and the CS automotive sales and service index rose by 4.23%, while the electric vehicle index fell by 0.08% and the smart vehicle index increased by 1.36% [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.66% and the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.93%, indicating that the CS automotive index underperformed these indices by 1.72 percentage points and 1.45 percentage points respectively, with a year-to-date increase of 23.76% [2] Cost Tracking and Inventory - As of September 10, 2025, the prices of float glass, aluminum ingots, and zinc ingots changed year-on-year by -9.4%, +7.1%, and -5.2% respectively, and month-on-month by -6%, +0.5%, and -1.1% [3] - The inventory warning index for automotive dealers in August was 57.0%, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.8 percentage points and a month-on-month decrease of 0.2 percentage points [3] Market Focus - Key developments include partnerships in autonomous driving, such as Horizon Robotics collaborating with Hello to accelerate Robotaxi deployment, and the launch of new models like the all-new Wanjie M7, which saw over 100,000 pre-orders within an hour [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued a joint plan for stabilizing growth in the automotive industry for 2025-2026 [3] Investment Recommendations - In the medium to long term, the focus is on opportunities in incremental components driven by the rise of domestic brands and electric intelligence [4] - Recommended companies include Leap Motor, JAC Motors, and Geely for strong new product cycles, and companies like Kobot, Huayang Group, and Junsheng Electronics for smart technology [4]