Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ctrip Group-S (09961.HK) with a target price of 606.90 HKD, reflecting a potential upside from the current closing price of 576.00 HKD [5][3][20]. Core Insights - Ctrip's Q2 2025 performance is strong, with net operating revenue reaching 14.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16%, and net profit of 4.9 billion RMB, up 26% year-on-year. The growth is driven by robust travel demand, particularly during holiday periods [1][9]. - The international business segment shows significant growth, with total bookings on the international OTA platform increasing by over 60% year-on-year, driven by the Asia-Pacific region and mobile bookings, which now account for 70% of total bookings [1][17]. - The report highlights the increasing participation and purchasing power of the silver-haired demographic through the "Old Friends Club," which saw user numbers and GMV grow over 100% since the end of 2024 [2][19]. Summary by Sections International Business Growth - Ctrip's international OTA platform has shown strong growth, with inbound travel bookings more than doubling year-on-year, primarily driven by demand from South Korea and Southeast Asia [1][17]. - Domestic travelers' enthusiasm for outbound travel continues to recover, with bookings for hotels and flights exceeding 120% of the same period in 2019 [1][17]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report projects revenues of 61.82 billion RMB for 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.0%, and net profit of 17.71 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 3.7% [3][20]. - Ctrip's domestic business remains strong, while international operations are expected to contribute additional growth, making it a valuable long-term investment [3][20]. - The expected PE ratios for 2025-2027 are 21.4X, 18.6X, and 15.9X, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [3][20].

Core Insights - Ctrip has announced a new hybrid work policy that will eliminate the need for direct supervisor approval for remote work applications starting September 1, 2025 [1] - The pilot program will apply to all full-time technical (T-series) and product technical (PT-series) employees in China [1] - This change is seen as a significant move towards building a culture of trust and employee autonomy within the company [1] Summary by Sections - **Policy Change**: Ctrip will allow eligible employees to submit remote work applications without supervisor approval, with notifications sent to supervisors instead [1] - **Participation and Impact**: Since the introduction of the hybrid work policy in 2022, 70% of employees have participated, resulting in approximately 640,000 remote work instances [1] - **Cultural Shift**: The primary goal of this policy adjustment is to enhance work-life balance (WLB) and foster a culture based on trust and self-motivation among employees [1]

Core Points - The company has implemented a new policy allowing employees in the product and research departments to work from home without needing approval from direct supervisors, effective from September 1, 2025 [1] - This adjustment aims to enhance work-life balance (WLB) and foster a culture of trust and self-motivation among employees [1] - Since the introduction of the hybrid work policy in 2022, approximately 70% of employees have participated, with around 640,000 instances of remote work recorded [1] Summary by Categories Policy Changes - The new policy eliminates the requirement for direct supervisor approval for remote work applications, allowing for automatic approval upon submission [1] - The pilot program will specifically target domestic employees who have completed their probationary period in the T and PT series [1] Employee Engagement - The company has seen a significant uptake in hybrid working arrangements, with 70% employee participation since the policy's launch [1] - The initiative is part of a broader strategy to improve employee satisfaction and productivity by promoting a better balance between work and personal life [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported stable revenue growth and improved profit margins in Q2 2025, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations, driven by strong execution and increased overseas investments [1][4]. Revenue Breakdown - Domestic hotel and outbound travel businesses continue to gain market share, with Q2 accommodation booking revenue at 62.3 billion yuan, up 21.2%, and transportation ticketing revenue at 54.0 billion yuan, up 10.8% [2]. - Estimated Q2 domestic revenue growth exceeded 10%, with hotel night growth maintaining over 15%, while outbound revenue also grew over 10%, with hotel and flight bookings recovering significantly [2]. - International platform revenue is expected to grow over 30%, with Trip.com seeing over 60% growth in hotel and flight bookings [2]. Profitability Breakdown - The international platform is still in an investment phase, impacting profit margins, while domestic operations are optimizing profitability [3]. - The company's gross margin decreased by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, with R&D and management expenses rising by 18.3% [3]. - The company has repurchased 4 billion USD worth of shares and announced a new 50 billion USD buyback plan, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [3].

Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved net operating revenue of 14.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%, in line with Bloomberg consensus expectations [1] - Adjusted net profit for the same period was 5 billion yuan, remaining flat year-on-year, which was better than Bloomberg consensus expectations [1] - The company has repurchased approximately 7 million American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) for a total consideration of about 400 million USD under the stock repurchase plan authorized in February 2025 [1] Group 2: Domestic Tourism Market - The domestic accommodation booking revenue grew by 21% year-on-year and 12% quarter-on-quarter, driven by strong travel demand, particularly during holidays [2] - The supply of hotel rooms during the summer increased by a mid-single-digit percentage year-on-year, with hotel prices stabilizing and the year-on-year decline in prices narrowing to a mid-low single-digit range [2] - The number of inbound tourists in H1 increased by approximately 30% year-on-year, with a more than 100% year-on-year growth in inbound travel bookings on the company's platform [2] Group 3: International Business Growth - In Q2, cross-border flight capacity recovered to 84% of pre-pandemic levels, with outbound hotel and flight bookings exceeding 120% of the same period in 2019, outperforming the market by 30-40 percentage points [3] - The company's international business saw a total booking volume growth of over 60% year-on-year, with the Asia-Pacific region remaining a key operational focus [3] - The company’s non-GAAP sales expense ratio was 22%, remaining stable year-on-year, indicating better-than-expected customer acquisition efficiency [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company’s performance exceeded expectations, leading to an adjustment in the forecast for adjusted net profit for 2025-2027 from 17.6/19.7/22 billion yuan to 18.3/20/22 billion yuan [3] - The corresponding adjusted PE ratios are projected to be 20/19/17 times, with a continued positive outlook on the company's overseas business growth [3]

Group 1 - Trip.com (NASDAQ: TCOM) is outperforming optimistic projections with rapidly climbing share prices [1] - The importance of observing megatrends and technological advancements for investment insights is emphasized [1] - The focus on fundamentals, quality of leadership, and product pipeline is crucial for uncovering investment opportunities [1] Group 2 - The analyst has a beneficial long position in TCOM shares, indicating confidence in the company's future performance [2] - The article expresses personal opinions and does not involve compensation from any company mentioned [2]

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group-S (09961) reported better-than-expected Q2 performance, with hotel business growth surpassing expectations and market share continuing to rise [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Ctrip's hotel business growth exceeded expectations, indicating strong operational performance [1] - The company is in a favorable position within the competitive landscape of the domestic market [1] Group 2: Market Strategy - The trend of improving marketing investment efficiency is expected to continue [1] - The impact of overseas market investments on overall company profits is manageable [1] Group 3: Valuation and Target Price - The valuation for Ctrip has been extended to 2026, with a target price increase from HKD 591 to HKD 653 based on a 20x P/E ratio for 2026 [1] - The recommendation for Ctrip remains "Buy" [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group's (09961) Q2 performance exceeded expectations, with hotel business growth surpassing forecasts and market share continuing to rise [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Ctrip's hotel business showed stronger-than-expected growth in Q2 [1] - The company is in a favorable position within the competitive landscape of the mainland market [1] Group 2: Market Strategy - The trend of improving marketing investment efficiency is expected to continue [1] - The impact of overseas market investments on overall company profits is manageable [1] Group 3: Valuation and Target Price - CCB International extended Ctrip's valuation to 2026, applying a price-to-earnings ratio of 20 times for that year [1] - The target price for Ctrip was raised from HKD 591 to HKD 653, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·旅游及消闲设施(HS) 携程集团-S（09961.HK） 2025Q2 业绩点评：利润及回购好于预期，国 际业务继续高增 买入（维持） | [盈利预测与估值 Table_EPS] | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 44,510 | 53,294 | 61,074 | 68,403 | 75,078 | | 同比（%） | 122.12 | 19.73 | 14.60 | 12.00 | 9.76 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 9,918 | 17,067 | 26,528 | 19,074 | 21,156 | | 同比（%） | 606.91 | 72.08 | 55.44 | (28.10) | 10.91 | | Non-GAAP 净利润（百万元） | 13,071 | 18,041 | 18,334 | 20,050 | 22,043 | | 同比（%） | 910.12 | 38.02 | 1.62 | 9.36 ...

美银证券发布研报称，携程集团-S(TCOM.US,09961)第二季净收入同比增长16%，非公认会计准则经营 溢利率31.4%，超出公司指引及市场预期。酒店和交通收入分别同比增长21%和11%，受惠高于同业的 双位数交易量增长，该行上调对携程目标价，由550港元上调至652港元，重申"买入"评级。管理层亦指 出夏季旅游预订需求强劲且交易量增长强劲，该行预测第三季收入同比增长14%。 ...