Core Viewpoint - Southbound funds saw significant inflow today, with a total transaction amount of approximately 210.55 billion HKD, marking an increase of nearly 32 billion HKD compared to the previous day, representing about 50.94% of the total turnover of the Hang Seng Index [2] Southbound Fund Flow - The net inflow of southbound funds today was approximately 6.288 billion HKD, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing about 1.907 billion HKD and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing about 4.382 billion HKD [2][4] - Major net inflows included Meituan-W (14.12 billion HKD), Alibaba-W (12.1 billion HKD), Pop Mart (12.07 billion HKD), and Xiaomi Group-W (6.61 billion HKD) [2] - Significant net outflows were observed in Hua Hong Semiconductor (11.65 billion HKD), Tencent Holdings (4.18 billion HKD), and SMIC (2.77 billion HKD) [2] Stock Performance - Meituan-W increased by 0.29%, but short-term funds have been predominantly flowing out, with a reduction of 1.237 million shares over the past five days [3] - Alibaba-W decreased by 1.98%, with short-term funds continuing to flow in, accumulating 12 million shares over the past five days [3] - Pop Mart rose by 4.62%, yet short-term funds continued to show a trend of outflow, with a reduction of 397,000 shares over the past five days [3] - Xiaomi Group-W fell by 1.73%, with a continued outflow trend, reducing 2.099 million shares over the past five days [3] - Hua Hong Semiconductor increased by 8.62%, with an unclear short-term fund trend, having accumulated 1.069 million shares over the past five days [3] - Tencent Holdings decreased by 2.95%, with an unclear short-term fund trend, reducing 820,000 shares over the past five days [3] - SMIC rose by 2.66%, with short-term funds predominantly flowing in, accumulating 2.057 million shares over the past five days [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the business models of two companies, Moutai and Pop Mart, comparing their profitability and sustainability, ultimately suggesting that both have strong business models but differ in market dynamics and future potential [2][3][8]. Profitability Metrics - Moutai has a gross margin of 90% and a net margin of 50%, making it one of the best globally [3]. - Pop Mart has a gross margin of 70% and a net margin of 35%, ranking among the top five but not surpassing Moutai [3]. Sustainability of Business Models - The white liquor market is expected to face a decline in consumer demographics, which poses challenges for Moutai in maintaining or increasing market share [5]. - Pop Mart has the potential for better sustainability due to its broader market appeal and the ability to tap into international markets, particularly the U.S. [6][7]. Market Opportunities - Pop Mart's IP, labubu, is considered significantly undervalued, with the potential to contribute substantial value alongside a matrix of top-tier IPs [6]. - The U.S. market is viewed as a major opportunity, with potential revenues estimated to be 2-3 times that of the domestic market, given the higher average revenue per store [6]. Management Quality - Moutai's management is seen as competent but not as strong as that of leading global companies like Apple [10]. - Pop Mart's management is viewed favorably, with aspirations to reach the level of Apple in the future [11]. Valuation Comparison - Current static PE ratios are approximately 25 for Pop Mart and 20 for Moutai, indicating they are in a similar valuation range [11]. - Both companies are expected to show stable performance in the short term, with earnings serving as a lower bound for future performance [11]. Revenue Growth Potential - Pop Mart is projected to reach 50 billion in revenue, with a trajectory towards 100 billion, indicating strong growth potential [12].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts that Pop Mart (09992) will experience multiple consumption peaks in the coming months, driven by sufficient inventory of popular products, new product launches, and store expansions [1] Group 1: Sales Forecast - The firm expects sales for Pop Mart in Q3 to grow over 180% year-on-year, compared to 235% in the previous quarter [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains a target price of HKD 382 for Pop Mart, corresponding to projected P/E ratios of 42x, 32x, and 26x for 2025 to 2027 [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Demand - Despite recent cautious sentiment in the market towards Pop Mart, Morgan Stanley's outlook remains positive, drawing parallels to Pokémon's strategy in 2021-2022 to increase card production to address speculation and enhance customer experience [1] - The report addresses investor concerns regarding the sustainability of Pop Mart, asserting that the IP collectibles market is substantial and continues to grow, with Pop Mart's differentiated business model poised to capture the increasing "kidult" consumer demand [1] Group 3: Earnings Projections - Morgan Stanley projects adjusted earnings per share for Pop Mart to be HKD 2.58, 9.90, 11.87, and 14.67 for the years 2025 to 2027 [2] - The company is estimated to hold a 5.7% market share in the global IP products market this year, compared to Disney's 43.1% and Sanrio's 8.2% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Pop Mart (09992) is expected to experience multiple consumption peaks in the coming months, driven by sufficient inventory of popular products, new product launches, and store expansions [1] Group 1: Sales Forecast - The firm anticipates that Pop Mart's sales will grow over 180% year-on-year in Q3, compared to 235% in the previous quarter [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains a target price of HKD 382 for Pop Mart, corresponding to projected price-to-earnings ratios of 42x, 32x, and 26x for 2025 to 2027 [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Demand - Despite recent cautious sentiment in the market towards Pop Mart, Morgan Stanley's outlook remains positive, drawing parallels to Pokémon's strategy in 2021-2022 to increase card production to address speculation and enhance customer experience [1] - The report counters investor concerns regarding the sustainability of Pop Mart, asserting that the market for IP collectibles is substantial and continues to grow, with confidence in Pop Mart's differentiated business model and competitive advantages to capture the rising "kidult" consumer demand [1] Group 3: Earnings Projections - Morgan Stanley projects adjusted earnings per share for Pop Mart to be HKD 2.58, 9.90, 11.87, and 14.67 for the years 2025 to 2027 [1] - The company is estimated to hold a 5.7% market share in the global IP products market this year, compared to Disney's 43.1% and Sanrio's 8.2% [1]

Group 1 - COMEX gold futures prices rose to $3702.8 per ounce on September 17, marking a nearly 10% increase from $3378 per ounce on August 18 [1] - Popop, a jewelry brand under Bubble Mart, launched its first solid gold series featuring products like gold beads, pendants, gold bars, and ornaments [1] - Within three days of launch, foot traffic in two Popop stores significantly increased, leading to a noticeable rise in sales [1] Group 2 - The new solid gold series is not a limited edition, with prices ranging from 1300 to 1700 RMB per gram, indicating a premium over market prices [5] - Unlike traditional gold brands that use a "gold price + processing fee" pricing strategy, Popop employs a fixed price model for its products [5] - The demand for emotional value from consumers has contributed to the rising popularity of Bubble Mart's IP, reflected in the company's performance [5] Group 3 - Bubble Mart reported a revenue of 13.88 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 204.4% [5] - The adjusted net profit for the same period was 4.71 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year growth of 362.8% [5] - The company's revenue surpassed 10 billion RMB in the first half of the year, with net profit exceeding the total for the entire year of 2024 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's research report indicates a contrary view to the market's cautious sentiment towards Pop Mart, suggesting that increased supply can help address speculation issues and expand the customer base, thereby driving sustained demand growth [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Supply - Despite recent market caution regarding Pop Mart, Morgan Stanley believes that increasing production capacity will resolve speculation problems and broaden the customer base [1] - The report draws parallels with the Pokémon experience, asserting that increased capacity can lead to sustained demand growth [1] Group 2: Catalysts for Growth - Upcoming consumer peak seasons (National Day, Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas) are expected to act as catalysts for sales growth [1] - With sufficient inventory of popular products, new product launches, and store expansions, Morgan Stanley anticipates that Pop Mart's sales momentum will continue and reverse the market's pessimistic sentiment [1] Group 3: Financial Projections - Morgan Stanley forecasts that Pop Mart's sales in the third quarter will increase by over 180% year-on-year [1] - The firm maintains a target price of 382 HKD for Pop Mart and an "Overweight" rating, listing it as a top pick in the industry [1] - Projections for adjusted earnings per share from 2025 to 2027 have been provided, estimating Pop Mart's share in the global IP product market at 5.7% [1]

Core Insights - The rise of "Art Toys" or "Designer Toys" has transformed from a niche market to a global trend, driven by unique designs and cultural narratives [1][2][8] - The global market for designer toys is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 23% from 2015 to 2024, increasing from 8.7 billion to 44.8 billion yuan [3] - The consumer demographic for designer toys is predominantly under 40, with China's Generation Z contributing 40% of the market [8][10] Industry Growth - The designer toy market has expanded rapidly since 2016, with North America, Europe, and China emerging as the top three markets [7][8] - The industry has seen a surge in original IPs and new entrants, making it a hot sector for both consumer and capital markets [2][8] Globalization and Market Dynamics - The designer toy industry has a natural global characteristic, with cross-border IP collaborations and international supply chain layouts [2][11] - Successful brands like Pop Mart have expanded internationally, with overseas revenue reaching 1.35 billion yuan in the previous year, a 260% increase [13][14] Competitive Landscape - Chinese companies have quickly risen in the designer toy sector, leveraging manufacturing capabilities and market size to compete globally [15][16] - Brands like Pop Mart and 52TOYS have effectively utilized collaborations with well-known IPs to reduce market education costs and enhance product visibility [16][20] Marketing and Consumer Engagement - The marketing strategies of Chinese companies, such as leveraging social media and influencer partnerships, have proven effective in both domestic and international markets [21][22] - The ability to create and manage unique IPs is crucial for differentiation in the designer toy market, with companies like Pop Mart developing over 30 proprietary IPs [23]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's research report indicates that the market sentiment towards Pop Mart has become cautious, viewing the company's increased supply as a negative factor. However, the firm believes that this approach can lead to a larger customer base and sustained demand, similar to the Pokémon card market's experience from 2021 to 2022 [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Strategy - The market's recent cautious sentiment towards Pop Mart is attributed to the perception of increased supply as a negative factor [1] - Morgan Stanley draws parallels with Pokémon's strategy of increasing card production to address speculation and enhance customer experience, resulting in a larger customer base despite a drop in secondary market prices [1] Group 2: Market Potential and Growth - The IP product market is considered substantial and continuously growing, with Pop Mart's differentiated business model and competitive advantages positioned to capture the increasing kidult consumer demand [1] - Upcoming consumption peaks, including China's National Day and Western holidays such as Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas, are expected to act as catalysts for sales growth [1] Group 3: Sales Forecast and Valuation - Morgan Stanley anticipates that Pop Mart's sales will grow over 180% year-on-year in Q3, compared to 235% in the previous quarter [1] - The firm maintains a target price of HKD 382 for Pop Mart and an "Overweight" rating, listing it as an industry favorite [1] - Earnings per share forecasts for Pop Mart from 2025 to 2027 are projected at HKD 2.58, 9.90, 11.87, and 14.67 respectively, with an estimated global market share of 5.7% in the IP products sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart (09992) has seen a stock increase of over 3%, currently trading at 263.4 HKD with a transaction volume of 2.791 billion HKD, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Huatai Securities suggests that recent fluctuations in the secondary market prices of Pop Mart's products may be due to the company's proactive supply increase, which does not hinder its long-term development logic [1] - The company is recognized as a leading player in China's trendy toy industry, possessing full industry chain operational capabilities for IP toys [1] - Pop Mart continues to achieve high-quality growth through outstanding IP creation, operational capabilities, and diverse consumer touchpoints [1] Group 2: Growth Potential - The expansion of Pop Mart's overseas business and the increasing influence of its products internationally are expected to unlock a second growth driver for the company [1] - HSBC Global Research reports that Labubu has become a global cultural symbol, comparable to Kaws and Bearbrick, with a development cycle exceeding 10 years [1] - Labubu is set to begin active collaborations with global brands in 2024, suggesting that it is premature to declare its peak [1] Group 3: Investment Ratings - HSBC maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart with a target price of 379 HKD, which corresponds to projected price-to-earnings ratios of 41.5 times and 30.8 times for the next two years [1]

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart (09992) has seen a stock price increase of over 3%, currently trading at 263.4 HKD with a transaction volume of 2.791 billion HKD, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Huatai Securities suggests that recent fluctuations in the secondary market prices of Pop Mart's products may be a result of the company's proactive supply increase, which does not hinder its long-term development logic [1] - As a leading player in China's trendy toy industry, Pop Mart possesses full industry chain operational capabilities for IP toys, supported by its strong IP creation and operational abilities, as well as diverse consumer reach through various channels [1] Group 2: Growth Potential - The company is expected to benefit from the gradual expansion of its overseas business and the increasing influence of its products internationally, which may open up a second growth avenue [1] - HSBC Global Research reports that Labubu has become a global cultural symbol comparable to Kaws and Bearbrick, with Labubu only beginning active collaborations with global brands in 2024, suggesting that it is premature to declare its peak [1] Group 3: Investment Ratings - HSBC maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart with a target price of 379 HKD, which corresponds to forecasted price-to-earnings ratios of 41.5 times and 30.8 times for the next two years [1]