Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in Pop Mart's stock price, which has dropped nearly 25% from its peak on August 26, is primarily driven by market concerns over the second-hand prices of certain popular products and the sustainability of their popularity. However, the company believes that second-hand prices are not a reasonable indicator of popularity, as the current price adjustments are mainly driven by supply expansion rather than changes in demand [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The fluctuation in the second-hand prices of Labubu is attributed to increased supply rather than a decline in popularity, as evidenced by stable or increasing prices for products not affected by capacity changes [2]. - The company maintains a leading position in the artist IP toy market, with exclusive brand positioning and control over supply, which allows for a highly expandable product lifecycle [2]. - The balance of supply and demand is crucial for enhancing fan experience and mitigating the impact of counterfeit products [2]. Group 2: Product Innovation and Pricing Strategy - Recent product launches, such as Mini Labubu, have generated significant fan engagement and strong sales performance in North America, showcasing the company's ability to blend product and social play [3]. - The company has demonstrated flexibility in pricing strategies, as seen with the price increase of SP plush toys to 159 yuan, indicating strong pricing power in the rubber plush category [3]. - Upcoming quarterly results are anticipated to be positive, driven by pre-sale shipments and new product launches, with Q4 expected to benefit from the overseas peak season and anniversary series [3]. Group 3: Long-term Growth Drivers - The company is expected to see substantial growth in 2026, driven by rapid capacity expansion in plush products and a low base in the first three quarters [4]. - The global commercial value of the company's largest IP, The Monsters, has significant growth potential, with the top five IPs showing strong momentum [4]. - The company plans to expand its overseas store count to over 180 by 2025, enhancing brand influence through flagship store openings [4]. Group 4: Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company has raised its adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 by 14%/12%/12% to 116 billion, 170 billion, and 220 billion yuan, respectively, driven by capacity expansion and product upgrades [4]. - The target price has been increased by 14% to 396 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating based on the company's high growth potential and expanding global IP influence [4].

Market Overview - On September 18, Hong Kong's three major indices experienced a pullback, with the Hang Seng Index down 1.35% to 26,544.85 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.99% to 6,271.22 points, and the National Enterprises Index down 1.46% to 9,456.52 points. The tech sector saw a decline, while the semiconductor and robotics industries performed well, with Hua Hong Semiconductor rising over 8.5% and SMIC up over 2.5% [1] Southbound Capital - On September 18, southbound funds recorded a net inflow of HKD 62.88 billion, with Meituan, Alibaba, and Pop Mart receiving net purchases of HKD 14.12 billion, HKD 12.1 billion, and HKD 12.07 billion, respectively. Year-to-date, the cumulative net inflow of southbound funds has reached HKD 1,099.89 billion, significantly surpassing last year's total [2] U.S. Market Performance - U.S. stock indices reached new closing highs, with the Dow Jones up 0.27%, the S&P 500 up 0.48%, and the Nasdaq up 0.94%. Notable gains were seen in Caterpillar and NVIDIA, both rising over 3%. However, many Chinese concept stocks declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 1.79% [3] Key Developments 1. NVIDIA announced a USD 5 billion investment in Intel, purchasing shares at USD 23.28 each, a 6.5% discount to Intel's previous closing price [4] 2. At Huawei's Connect 2025 event, the company unveiled its Ascend chip roadmap, planning three series of chips through 2028, including the Ascend 950 series [4] 3. Kuaishou's Keling AI launched a new digital human feature, allowing users to create 1080p/48FPS videos from images and text or audio [4] Short Selling Data - On September 18, a total of 641 Hong Kong stocks were short-sold, with a total short-selling amount of HKD 37.879 billion. Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent had the highest short-selling amounts, at HKD 47.94 billion, HKD 25.6 billion, and HKD 23.06 billion, respectively [5] Institutional Insights - Zheshang Securities highlighted the rapid development of AI applications in Hong Kong's internet sector, suggesting that the sector is at a historical low in valuation. The firm recommends focusing on leading internet companies with AI advancements, such as Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent, as well as vertical application companies like Kuaishou and Meitu [6] Hong Kong ETFs - The Hong Kong Consumption ETF (513230) focuses on e-commerce and new consumption sectors, while the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) includes core AI assets and leading tech companies [7][8]

Core Insights - The top three companies by Hong Kong Stock Connect holding ratios are China Telecom (71.75%), Gree Power Environmental (69.11%), and China Shenhua (68.06%) [1] - Alibaba-W, BeiGene, and China Pacific Insurance saw the largest increases in holdings over the last five trading days, with increases of +171.65 billion, +19.60 billion, and +15.85 billion respectively [1] - Xiaomi Group-W, Tencent Holdings, and Great Wall Motors experienced the largest decreases in holdings, with reductions of -13.16 billion, -12.81 billion, and -8.09 billion respectively [2] Hong Kong Stock Connect Holding Ratios - China Telecom (00728) has a holding of 9.959 billion shares, representing 71.75% [1] - Gree Power Environmental (01330) has a holding of 280 million shares, representing 69.11% [1] - China Shenhua (01088) has a holding of 2.299 billion shares, representing 68.06% [1] - Other notable companies in the top 20 include COSCO Shipping Energy (67.64%) and Kaisa New Energy (67.48%) [1] Recent Increases in Holdings - Alibaba-W (09988) saw an increase of +171.65 billion, with an addition of 10.836 million shares [1] - BeiGene (06160) increased by +19.60 billion, with an addition of 970.45 thousand shares [1] - China Pacific Insurance (02601) increased by +15.85 billion, with an addition of 512.87 thousand shares [1] Recent Decreases in Holdings - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) decreased by -13.16 billion, with a reduction of 2.314 million shares [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700) decreased by -12.81 billion, with a reduction of 199.52 thousand shares [2] - Great Wall Motors (02333) decreased by -8.09 billion, with a reduction of 4.667 million shares [2]

Core Insights - The article highlights the top short-selling stocks in the market, with specific focus on their short-selling ratios and amounts [1][2][3] Short-Selling Ratios - The top three stocks by short-selling ratio are: - China Resources Beer (80291) at 100.00% - AIA Group (81299) at 89.92% - Sun Hung Kai Properties (80016) at 85.69% [1][2] Short-Selling Amounts - The leading stocks by short-selling amounts are: - Alibaba (09988) with a short-selling amount of 4.794 billion - Baidu (09888) with 2.560 billion - Tencent Holdings (00700) with 2.306 billion [1][3] Deviation Values - The stocks with the highest deviation values are: - China Resources Beer (80291) at 40.95% - Uni-President China (00220) at 39.40% - Dongfang Electric (01072) at 38.26% [1][2][3]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,523.97, down by 20.88 points or 0.08% as of September 18, 16:00 Eastern Time [1] - The index reached a high of 26,568.27 and a low of 26,422.86 during the trading session, with a trading volume of 74.7354 million [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - HSBC Holdings closed at HKD 108.106, up by 0.85% compared to the Hong Kong closing price [2] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 642.805, reflecting a slight increase of 0.13% from the Hong Kong closing price [2] Individual Stock Movements - Tencent Holdings saw a decrease of HKD 19.500, or 2.95%, with an ADR price of 642.805 [3] - Alibaba Group (ADR) decreased by HKD 3.200, or 1.98%, with an ADR price of 157.960 [3] - HSBC Holdings increased by HKD 0.600, or 0.56%, with an ADR price of 108.106 [3] - China Construction Bank decreased by HKD 0.190, or 2.42%, with an ADR price of 7.641 [3] - AIA Group saw a decline of HKD 1.300, or 1.74%, with an ADR price of 73.536 [3] - NetEase experienced a drop of HKD 6.000, or 2.44%, with an ADR price of 237.834 [3] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing fell by HKD 14.000, or 3.06%, with an ADR price of 446.269 [3] - Ping An Insurance decreased by HKD 1.500, or 2.69%, with an ADR price of 54.170 [3] - JD.com saw a decline of HKD 2.400, or 1.76%, with an ADR price of 137.583 [3] - Kuaishou Technology dropped by HKD 1.850, or 2.37%, with an ADR price of 72.913 [3]

Core Insights - On September 18, Hong Kong Broadband made its first appearance on the active trading list of Hong Kong Stock Connect in nearly a month [2] - The total trading volume of active stocks on the Hong Kong Stock Connect reached HKD 763.71 billion, accounting for 36.27% of the day's total trading amount, with a net buying amount of HKD 33.31 billion [2] Trading Activity Summary - The top traded stock was Alibaba-W with a trading volume of HKD 210.72 billion, followed by SMIC and Tencent Holdings with trading volumes of HKD 140.50 billion and HKD 91.65 billion, respectively [2] - Over the past month, Alibaba-W and Tencent Holdings were the most frequently listed stocks, appearing 23 times, indicating strong interest from Hong Kong Stock Connect funds [2] Hong Kong Broadband Performance - On the day of its first listing, Hong Kong Broadband had a trading volume of HKD 26.49 billion and a net buying amount of HKD 4.28 billion, with its stock price increasing by 68.55% [2]

Market Overview - On September 18, the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.35%, with southbound trading totaling HKD 210.55 billion, comprising HKD 108.42 billion in buying and HKD 102.13 billion in selling, resulting in a net buying amount of HKD 6.28 billion [1] Southbound Trading Details - Southbound trading through the Shenzhen Stock Connect had a total trading amount of HKD 76.78 billion, with buying at HKD 40.58 billion and selling at HKD 36.20 billion, leading to a net buying of HKD 4.38 billion [1] - The Shanghai Stock Connect recorded a total trading amount of HKD 133.77 billion, with buying at HKD 67.84 billion and selling at HKD 65.93 billion, resulting in a net buying of HKD 1.84 billion [1] Active Stocks - The most actively traded stock by southbound funds was Alibaba-W, with a total trading amount of HKD 210.72 billion, followed by SMIC and Tencent Holdings with HKD 140.50 billion and HKD 91.65 billion respectively [1] - In terms of net buying, Meituan-W led with a net buying amount of HKD 14.12 billion, followed by Alibaba-W with HKD 12.10 billion and Pop Mart with HKD 12.07 billion [1] - The stock with the highest net selling was Hua Hong Semiconductor, with a net selling amount of HKD 11.65 billion, while Tencent Holdings and SMIC had net selling amounts of HKD 4.18 billion and HKD 2.77 billion respectively [1] Continuous Net Buying - Two stocks, Alibaba-W and Meituan-W, have seen continuous net buying for over three days, with Alibaba-W having a total net buying of HKD 561.01 billion over 20 days and Meituan-W with HKD 49.01 billion over 4 days [2]

Core Insights - COMEX gold futures prices have surged, reaching over $3700 per ounce, marking a nearly 10% increase in one month and close to 40% year-to-date [2] - The rising gold prices have prompted both trendy companies and traditional gold shops to expand their presence in the gold jewelry market, with notable interest from luxury brands [2][12] Group 1: Market Trends - The launch of the "Baby Molly·Foot Gold" series by Pop Mart's jewelry brand popop features products priced from 980 yuan to 56,800 yuan, utilizing "hard gold + ancient methods + enamel" craftsmanship [4][5] - The average price per gram for the new gold products ranges from 1300 to 1800 yuan, which is lower than previous collaborations, indicating a strategic pricing approach [5] - The popularity of gold jewelry among younger consumers is evident, with significant foot traffic and sales growth reported in popop's stores following the launch [10] Group 2: Company Strategies - Pop Mart's founder emphasized the importance of diversifying product categories, with jewelry being a key area of exploration for the company [8] - The brand's strategy includes leveraging its IP to create unique gold jewelry designs, distinguishing itself from traditional gold shops [10] - Old Fengxiang Co., Ltd. is investing 50 million yuan to establish a luxury goods sales company, aiming to enhance brand image and tap into the mid-to-high-end market [11] Group 3: Industry Dynamics - LVMH's CEO was spotted visiting a traditional gold shop, highlighting the growing interest of international luxury brands in the Chinese gold market [12] - The World Gold Council's report indicates that rising gold prices have outpaced income growth, potentially affecting consumer purchasing behavior [11] - The increasing interest in local brands among Chinese consumers is noted, with some domestic jewelry companies experiencing explosive demand [12][13]

Core Insights - On September 18, 2025, Alibaba-W (09988), SMIC (00981), and Tencent Holdings (00700) were the top three companies by trading volume in the southbound trading of the Stock Connect, with trading amounts of 13.163 billion, 9.044 billion, and 5.634 billion respectively [1][2] - Alibaba-W (09988), SMIC (00981), and Tencent Holdings (00700) also led the trading volume in the southbound trading of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, with trading amounts of 7.909 billion, 5.005 billion, and 3.531 billion respectively [1][2] Southbound Trading Highlights - **Top Active Companies in Southbound Trading (Hong Kong Stock Connect)** - Alibaba-W (09988): Trading amount of 13.163 billion, net buying of 0.315 billion [2] - SMIC (00981): Trading amount of 9.044 billion, net selling of 0.395 billion [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700): Trading amount of 5.634 billion, net selling of 0.940 billion [2] - Meituan-W (03690): Trading amount of 4.440 billion, net buying of 0.568 billion [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810): Trading amount of 3.518 billion, net buying of 0.280 billion [2] - **Top Active Companies in Southbound Trading (Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect)** - Alibaba-W (09988): Trading amount of 7.909 billion, net buying of 0.895 billion [2] - SMIC (00981): Trading amount of 5.005 billion, net buying of 0.117 billion [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700): Trading amount of 3.531 billion, net buying of 0.522 billion [2] - Meituan-W (03690): Trading amount of 2.495 billion, net buying of 0.844 billion [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810): Trading amount of 2.236 billion, net buying of 0.381 billion [2]

Core Viewpoint - Southbound funds saw significant inflow today, with a total transaction amount of approximately 210.55 billion HKD, marking an increase of nearly 32 billion HKD compared to the previous day, representing about 50.94% of the total turnover of the Hang Seng Index [2] Southbound Fund Flow - The net inflow of southbound funds today was approximately 6.288 billion HKD, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing about 1.907 billion HKD and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing about 4.382 billion HKD [2][4] - Major net inflows included Meituan-W (14.12 billion HKD), Alibaba-W (12.1 billion HKD), Pop Mart (12.07 billion HKD), and Xiaomi Group-W (6.61 billion HKD) [2] - Significant net outflows were observed in Hua Hong Semiconductor (11.65 billion HKD), Tencent Holdings (4.18 billion HKD), and SMIC (2.77 billion HKD) [2] Stock Performance - Meituan-W increased by 0.29%, but short-term funds have been predominantly flowing out, with a reduction of 1.237 million shares over the past five days [3] - Alibaba-W decreased by 1.98%, with short-term funds continuing to flow in, accumulating 12 million shares over the past five days [3] - Pop Mart rose by 4.62%, yet short-term funds continued to show a trend of outflow, with a reduction of 397,000 shares over the past five days [3] - Xiaomi Group-W fell by 1.73%, with a continued outflow trend, reducing 2.099 million shares over the past five days [3] - Hua Hong Semiconductor increased by 8.62%, with an unclear short-term fund trend, having accumulated 1.069 million shares over the past five days [3] - Tencent Holdings decreased by 2.95%, with an unclear short-term fund trend, reducing 820,000 shares over the past five days [3] - SMIC rose by 2.66%, with short-term funds predominantly flowing in, accumulating 2.057 million shares over the past five days [3]