June 13, 2025 06:50 AM GMT China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. | Asia Pacific Research Tactical Idea We believe the share price will rise in absolute terms over the next 15 days. This is because oil prices have risen sharply amid concerns over disruption in energy supplies from the Middle East. In our view, the share price could rebound after trading off on recent oil price weakness. We estimate that there is about a 70% to 80% (or "very likely") probability for the scenario. Estimated probabilities are illust ...

| 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600028 | 中国石化 | 0.85 | 0.26 | -20390.03 | | 002828 | 贝肯能源 | 10.00 | 55.26 | -17682.90 | | 600759 | 洲际油气 | -1.87 | 19.98 | -16858.14 | | 002207 | 准油股份 | 10.07 | 29.10 | -7537.22 | | 000554 | 泰山石油 | 3.56 | 44.32 | -7407.19 | | 600256 | 广汇能源 | 1.15 | 1.50 | -3226.30 | | 600800 | 渤海化学 | -2.82 | 3.57 | -1961.27 | | 300191 | 潜能恒信 | 0.94 | 18.21 | -1500.89 | | 001316 | 润贝航科 | -1.63 | 17.89 | -1495.29 | | 600346 | 恒力石化 | -0.87 | 0.15 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [5] Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ increased production by 180,000 barrels per day in May, which is below the planned increase, while geopolitical conflicts are driving oil prices upward [1] - OPEC maintains its global oil demand growth forecast, expecting an increase of 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, with strong demand from aviation, gasoline, liquefied gas, and naphtha [1] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is escalating, with attacks on energy facilities by Iran and Israel, leading to significant disruptions in oil production and refining [2] - The "Big Three" oil companies in China are focusing on increasing reserves and production to ensure energy security, with capital expenditures projected to grow at a CAGR of 6.6% from 2018 to 2024 [3] Summary by Sections OPEC and Oil Demand - OPEC+ is expected to see a cumulative production increase of 180,000 barrels per day by May 2025, with a significant portion of this increase coming from Saudi Arabia [1] - The demand for aviation fuel is projected to grow by 450,000 barrels per day in 2025, while gasoline demand is expected to rise by 380,000 barrels per day [1] Geopolitical Risks - The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel has led to attacks on energy infrastructure, causing production halts and operational shutdowns in major facilities [2] - The risk of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz remains, which could severely impact global oil trade, as approximately 11% of global maritime trade passes through this route [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on the "Big Three" oil companies (China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC) and their associated oil service companies, as well as leading oil transportation firms [3] - The anticipated short-term increase in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and the long-term favorable supply-demand dynamics support a positive outlook for the sector [3]

为担保项目公司能及时履行融资文件项下的还款义务，本公司于 2025 年 6 月 17 日与中国建设银行（亚洲）股份有限公司（作为代理行，简称"建银亚洲"） 签署了《融资担保协议》，本公司将为项目公司向建银亚洲提供一项连带责任保 证，当项目公司未能按照融资文件的约定支付款项时，本公司将按照《融资担保 协议》的约定向建银亚洲支付其到期未付款项，本公司相应可能承担的担保金额 上限预计本金不超过人民币 4,307,160,000 元及对应的利息等费用，担保期限自 《融资担保协议》签署之日起至项目公司在融资文件项下的付款义务全部履行完 毕之日或 2027 年 4 月 30 日（以较早之日为准）止。 股票代码：600028 股票简称：中国石化 公告编号：2025-23 中国石油化工股份有限公司 有关本次担保的重大进展，本公司将根据有关规定及时履行后续披露义务。 特此公告。 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 承董事会命 副总裁、董事会秘书 黄文生 中国石油化工股份有限公司（简称"本公司"）已于 2025 年 1 月 18 日披 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - Polyester bottle chip factories have announced production cuts of approximately 20%, with a total capacity reduction of about 2.59 million tons, potentially increasing to 4.9 million tons when considering long-term shutdowns [1] - The average operating load of domestic polyester bottle chip facilities is expected to decline from 94.3% in May 2025 to around 77% due to these production cuts [1] - The processing price spread for polyester bottle chips has dropped to a low of 291 RMB/ton, with expectations for recovery as low-priced sources diminish following the planned maintenance and production cuts [2] - The current expansion phase of the polyester bottle chip industry is nearing its end, with a projected capacity increase from 11.11 million tons in 2021 to 20.43 million tons in 2024, leading to an oversupply situation [3] - The industry is expected to see a turning point upwards, with leading companies already reporting reduced losses, indicating that the low point of the polyester bottle chip cycle has passed [3] Summary by Sections Production Cuts and Capacity - Major polyester bottle chip manufacturers, including Yisheng, China Resources Materials, and Sinopec, are implementing production cuts starting July 2025, with a total capacity reduction of approximately 2.59 million tons [1] - The average operating load is projected to decrease significantly due to these cuts, indicating a shift in supply dynamics [1] Price Dynamics - The average price spread for polyester bottle chips has reached a critical low, with expectations for recovery as production cuts take effect [2] - The increase in raw material prices for PTA and ethylene glycol has pressured the processing margins, contributing to the current low price spread [2] Industry Outlook - The polyester bottle chip industry has seen significant capacity expansion, but this phase is coming to an end, with expectations for improved pricing dynamics in the near future [3] - Leading companies are beginning to report improved financial performance, suggesting a potential recovery in the industry [3] Beneficiary Companies - Key beneficiaries identified include Wankai New Materials, China Resources Materials, Sanfangxiang, Hengyi Petrochemical, and Rongsheng Petrochemical [4]

Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 Index showed mixed performance among its constituent stocks, particularly in the banking and liquor sectors [1] Insurance Sector - China Pacific Insurance had a market capitalization of 381.21 billion, with a trading volume of 1.04 billion, closing at 54.23, down by 0.30 (-0.82%) [3] - China Life Insurance reported a market cap of 348.16 billion and a trading volume of 0.72 billion, closing at 36.19, down by 0.09 (-0.17%) [3] - Ping An Insurance had a market cap of 987.54 billion, with a trading volume of 2.75 billion, closing at 8.62, down by 0.09 (-1.03%) [3] Liquor Industry - Kweichow Moutai had a market cap of 1,792.59 billion, with a trading volume of 3.87 billion, closing at 117.71, up by 2.53 (+1.47%) [3] - Shanxi Fenjiu reported a market cap of 213.19 billion, with a trading volume of 2.32 billion, closing at 1427.00, down by 0.56 (-0.47%) [3] - Wuliangye Yibin had a market cap of 456.90 billion, with a trading volume of 1.49 billion, closing at 174.75, up by 4.71 (+0.33%) [3] Semiconductor Sector - Northern Huachuang had a market cap of 222.16 billion, with a trading volume of 1.30 billion, closing at 135.70, down by 24.25 (-4.06%) [3] - Cambricon Technologies reported a market cap of 239.33 billion, with a trading volume of 3.79 billion, closing at 415.90, down by 2.65 (-1.92%) [3] - Haiguang Information had a market cap of 315.41 billion, with a trading volume of 1.79 billion, closing at 573.30, up by 3.51 (+0.85%) [3] Automotive Sector - BYD had a market cap of 1,888.74 billion, with a trading volume of 2.41 billion, closing at 5.76, down by 0.69 (-0.20%) [3] - Great Wall Motors reported a market cap of 183.59 billion, with a trading volume of 0.30 billion, closing at 343.74, down by 0.01 (-0.05%) [3] - Shanghai-Kunming High-Speed Railway had a market cap of 281.81 billion, with a trading volume of 0.37 billion, closing at 21.45, up by 0.01 (+0.17%) [3] Oil and Shipping Sector - Sinopec had a market cap of 722.62 billion, with a trading volume of 1.50 billion, closing at 5.96, up by 0.16 (+1.77%) [3] - COSCO Shipping reported a market cap of 1,680.13 billion, with a trading volume of 1.71 billion, closing at 9.18, up by 0.05 (+0.85%) [3] - China National Petroleum Corporation had a market cap of 253.10 billion, with a trading volume of 1.44 billion, closing at 16.34, up by 0.22 (+1.36%) [3] Coal Sector - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry had a market cap of 195.35 billion, with a trading volume of 2.41 billion, closing at 246.26, up by 0.46 (+1.18%) [3] - China Shenhua Energy reported a market cap of 784.81 billion, with a trading volume of 0.98 billion, closing at 39.50, up by 0.37 (+1.87%) [3] - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. had a market cap of 1,122.78 billion, with a trading volume of 0.73 billion, closing at 20.15, down by 0.40 (-0.16%) [3] Other Sectors - Long江电力 had a market cap of 195.19 billion, with a trading volume of 2.40 billion, closing at 21.71, up by 0.21 (+0.69%) [4] - China Nuclear Power reported a market cap of 343.11 billion, with a trading volume of 0.75 billion, closing at 9.49, up by 0.08 (+0.85%) [4] - Dongfang Fortune had a market cap of 750.44 billion, with a trading volume of 4.33 billion, closing at 30.67, down by 0.02 (-0.09%) [4]

Group 1 - The State Intellectual Property Office of China has granted a patent for "catalysts for degrading ozone and their preparation methods" to China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), Sinopec Safety Engineering Research Institute, and Sinopec Qingdao Petroleum & Chemical Co., Ltd. The patent was announced under CN115888781B and was applied for on September 2021 [1][2] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, established in 2000, is primarily engaged in the petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industries. The company has a registered capital of 12,173.97 million RMB and has invested in 261 enterprises, participated in 5,000 bidding projects, and holds 5,000 patents [1] - Sinopec Safety Engineering Research Institute, founded in 2021, focuses on research and experimental development. It has a registered capital of 49.9 million RMB, invested in 4 enterprises, participated in 1,144 bidding projects, and holds 1,747 patents [1] - Sinopec Qingdao Petroleum & Chemical Co., Ltd., established in 1952, is also engaged in the petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industries. The company has a registered capital of 159.477 million RMB, invested in 7 enterprises, participated in 3,491 bidding projects, and holds 30 patents [2]

Financial Sector - Agricultural Bank of China has a market value of 1,970.40 billion with a trading volume of 0.869 billion, closing at 5.63, unchanged [2] - Bank of China has a market value of 1,577.92 billion with a trading volume of 0.922 billion, closing at 5.36, down by 0.02 (-0.37%) [2] - China Construction Bank has a market value of 2,548.30 billion with a trading volume of 0.931 billion, closing at 7.15, up by 0.01 (+0.14%) [2] - Ping An Bank has a market value of 228.21 billion with a trading volume of 0.704 billion, closing at 11.76, down by 0.03 (-0.25%) [2] Insurance Sector - China Pacific Insurance has a market value of 379.00 billion with a trading volume of 0.498 billion, closing at 8.57, down by 0.40 (-1.10%) [3] - China Life Insurance has a market value of 986.45 billion with a trading volume of 0.474 billion, closing at 54.17, down by 0.14 (-1.61%) [3] Alcohol Industry - Kweichow Moutai has a market value of 1,779.91 billion with a trading volume of 2.309 billion, closing at 174.22, up by 2.00 (+1.16%) [3] - Wuliangye Yibin has a market value of 457.02 billion with a trading volume of 1.048 billion, closing at 1416.90, down by 5.39 (-0.38%) [3] Semiconductor Sector - Northern Huachuang has a market value of 222.64 billion with a trading volume of 2.390 billion, closing at 135.55, down by 2.80 (-2.02%) [3] - Cambrian has a market value of 240.46 billion with a trading volume of 1.292 billion, closing at 416.79, up by 4.40 (+1.07%) [3] Automotive Sector - BYD has a market value of 1,888.46 billion with a trading volume of 1.575 billion, closing at 5.75, down by 0.74 (-0.21%) [3] - Great Wall Motors has a market value of 183.33 billion with a trading volume of 0.183 billion, closing at 343.69, unchanged [3] Energy Sector - Sinopec has a market value of 252.79 billion with a trading volume of 0.817 billion, closing at 5.98, up by 0.07 (+1.18%) [3] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation has a market value of 725.05 billion with a trading volume of 0.866 billion, closing at 16.32, up by 0.07 (+0.78%) [3] Coal Industry - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry has a market value of 193.99 billion with a trading volume of 1.408 billion, closing at 247.40, up by 0.07 (+0.18%) [3] - China Shenhua Energy has a market value of 777.06 billion with a trading volume of 0.450 billion, closing at 39.11, up by 0.23 (+1.16%) [3] Other Sectors - Longyuan Power has a market value of 744.32 billion with a trading volume of 1.402 billion, closing at 9.43, down by 0.04 (-0.13%) [4] - CITIC Securities has a market value of 393.93 billion with a trading volume of 0.777 billion, closing at 18.58, down by 0.10 (-0.37%) [4] - Mindray Medical has a market value of 169.70 billion with a trading volume of 0.566 billion, closing at 232.70, up by 0.18 (+0.36%) [4]

沪指6月16日上涨0.35%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有18个，涨幅居前的行业为传媒、通信，涨幅 分别为2.70%、2.11%。跌幅居前的行业为农林牧渔、美容护理，跌幅分别为0.76%、0.49%。石油石化 行业今日下跌0.10%。 石油石化行业资金流向排名 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300164 | 通源石油 | 19.96 | 59.14 | -46461.98 | | 603619 | 中曼石油 | 4.53 | 21.70 | -43066.03 | | 600759 | 洲际油气 | 9.88 | 20.20 | -39462.28 | | 600871 | 石化油服 | -1.44 | 3.95 | -14748.83 | | 600938 | 中国海油 | -1.74 | 2.83 | -10346.88 | | 603353 | 和顺石油 | 7.10 | 16.01 | -8447.43 | | 000554 | 泰山石油 | 10.07 | 16.69 ...

Investment Strategy - Oil prices are expected to remain high due to limited supply and escalating geopolitical conflicts, particularly the recent Israel-Iran conflict which has led to a significant increase in oil prices [11][28][29] - Global oil and gas capital expenditures have been declining since 2015, with a notable reduction of nearly 122% from 2014 levels, leading to cautious investment from major oil companies [9][28] - The active rig count in the US remains low, which will slow down the release of oil and gas production capacity in the short term [9][28] Oil Market - Brent crude oil spot price increased to $70.96 per barrel, up 5.16% week-on-week, while WTI crude oil spot price rose to $67.89 per barrel, up 7.17% [11][30] - The geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict involving Iran, pose a risk of supply disruptions, especially through the Strait of Hormuz, which is critical for global oil transport [11][29] Coal Market - The average market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is reported at 609 RMB per ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.04% week-on-week, indicating weak terminal demand [12][13] - The overall coal market is under pressure due to weak demand from the cement and non-electric industries, with procurement activities remaining slow [12][13] Coking Coal Market - Coking coal prices have decreased, with the price for Jizhou coking coal reported at 1,310 RMB per ton, down 4.96% week-on-week, leading to increased losses for coking enterprises [14][15] - The supply of coking coal remains relatively ample, but demand from downstream steel mills is weak, contributing to a bearish market outlook [14][15] Natural Gas Market - Russia's natural gas exports to China are expected to increase by 7 billion cubic meters by 2025, driven by pipeline expansions [16] - The average price of NYMEX natural gas decreased to $3.55 per million British thermal units, down 4.7% week-on-week, while European gas prices have shown an upward trend [16][17] Oilfield Services - The oilfield services sector is experiencing a recovery due to increased capital expenditures driven by high oil prices and supportive government policies aimed at boosting oil and gas production [18][19] - The global active rig count decreased to 1,576 units, indicating a slight contraction in drilling activities, particularly in the Middle East [19]