股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年10月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國南方航空股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年11月4日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01055 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 4,643,997,308 | RMB | | | 1 RMB | | 4,643,997,308 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 4,643,997,308 | RMB | | | 1 RMB | | 4,643,997,308 | | 2. ...

Group 1 - The performance of four mainland airlines in Q3 showed divergence, with China Eastern Airlines experiencing the strongest net profit growth of 34% year-on-year, followed by China Southern Airlines with a 20% increase. Spring Airlines and Air China saw net profit declines of 6% and 11%, respectively [1] - Revenue per available seat kilometer exceeded expectations, with stable data reported for September. The decline in fuel costs is expected to benefit the overall cost structure, although the unit cost performance excluding fuel varied, with Air China lagging in cost optimization [1] - Adjustments were made to Air China's 2025 profit forecast, changing from a loss of 54 million yuan to a profit of 473 million yuan, while forecasts for 2026 and 2027 were lowered by 5.7% and 4.2%, respectively. China Southern Airlines' 2025 profit forecast was reduced by 54%, but forecasts for 2026 and 2027 were raised by 16% and 14%. China Eastern Airlines' forecasts for 2025 to 2027 were increased by 56%, 0.8%, and 0.7%, respectively. Spring Airlines' 2025 profit forecast was lowered by 2.7%, with 2026 and 2027 forecasts remaining unchanged [1] Group 2 - The firm reiterated "underperform" ratings for Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines due to ongoing pressure on domestic ticket prices, which pose downside risks to profits in 2025 and 2026. Conversely, a "buy" rating was maintained for Spring Airlines, attributed to its cost leadership position and expected stable growth in 2025 and 2026 [2]

Core Insights - The opening of Guangzhou Baiyun Airport's T3 terminal and the fifth runway marks a significant upgrade in the airport's capabilities, enhancing its status as a major aviation hub [1][8] - Shenzhen has been selected as the host city for the 2026 APEC meeting, presenting new development opportunities for Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport [2] - The three major airports in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong) are engaged in both competition and collaboration to expand the regional aviation market [3][4] Airport Developments - Guangzhou Baiyun Airport achieved a record passenger volume of over 7.6 million in October 2025, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase [8] - Hong Kong International Airport processed 44.7 million passengers in the first three quarters of the year, with a 14.8% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [4] - Shenzhen Airport reported a significant increase in passenger and cargo traffic during the recent holiday period, with 1.602 million passengers and 38,000 tons of cargo handled [4] Competitive Landscape - The three major airports are competing for air traffic while also working together to grow the overall aviation market in the Greater Bay Area [3][4] - Cathay Pacific and China Southern Airlines are the two main carriers competing for market share, with Cathay expanding its routes into China and Southern Airlines responding by increasing flights to Hong Kong [11][15] - Cathay Pacific's new direct flight from Hong Kong to Urumqi and increased flights to major cities in mainland China highlight its strategy to capture high-end travelers [12][14] Future Outlook - The Greater Bay Area is projected to see a total passenger throughput of over 200 million by 2024, indicating strong growth potential for the aviation sector [19] - The collaboration among the three airports aims to create a world-class airport cluster, enhancing the region's global aviation standing [20] - The competitive dynamics between Cathay Pacific and China Southern Airlines are expected to improve service quality and passenger experience, providing travelers with more options and better pricing [20]

Core Viewpoint - China Southern Airlines' stock price has shown a modest increase this year, with a notable rise in recent trading days, reflecting a positive trend in the airline's performance and market sentiment [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, China Southern Airlines reported a revenue of 137.67 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.23% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 2.31 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 17.40% [2]. Stock Market Activity - As of November 4, the stock price of China Southern Airlines was 6.81 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 123.40 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has increased by 4.93% year-to-date, with a 1.64% rise over the last five trading days, 14.45% over the last 20 days, and 19.68% over the last 60 days [1]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for China Southern Airlines was 133,300, a decrease of 4.76% from the previous period [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 586 million shares, an increase of 4.32 million shares from the previous period [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China Southern Airlines [6][8]. Core Views - The company's Q3 earnings showed a year-on-year growth, driven by improved cost management despite revenue pressures from declining prices [3][4]. - The overall capacity growth in Q3 partially offset the impact of price declines, with a 5.3% increase in available seat kilometers (ASK) [4]. - The unit fuel cost and financial expenses are on a downward trend, contributing to profit improvements [5]. - The report forecasts a rebound in ticket prices, which is expected to enhance profitability [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 137.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.31 billion yuan, up 17.4% [3]. - In Q3 alone, revenue reached 51.4 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.0% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 3.84 billion yuan, up 20.3% [3]. Capacity and Revenue - The company's capacity growth slowed in Q3, with domestic ASK increasing by 4.5% and international ASK by 9.4% [4]. - The overall passenger revenue decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, indicating pricing pressures, although September saw a price increase of 1.0% [4]. Cost Management - The unit cost decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, with unit fuel costs at 0.14 yuan, down 7.3% [5]. - Financial expenses also decreased, with interest expenses down by approximately 300 million yuan year-on-year [5]. Profitability Outlook - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 1.84 billion, 4.24 billion, and 7.67 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 68, 30, and 16 [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of four mainland Chinese airlines in Q3 showed significant divergence, with Eastern Airlines reporting the strongest net profit growth of 34% year-on-year, followed by Southern Airlines with a 20% increase. In contrast, Spring Airlines and Air China experienced declines in net profit of 6% and 11%, respectively [1] Group 1: Airline Performance - Eastern Airlines achieved the highest net profit growth at 34% year-on-year [1] - Southern Airlines followed with a net profit increase of 20% year-on-year [1] - Spring Airlines and Air China reported net profit declines of 6% and 11%, respectively [1] Group 2: Revenue and Cost Analysis - Revenue per available seat kilometer exceeded expectations, with stable data reported for September [1] - A decline in fuel costs is expected to benefit the overall cost structure [1] - Excluding fuel, unit cost performance varied, with Air China lagging in cost optimization [1] Group 3: Ratings and Future Outlook - The firm reiterated a "underperform" rating for Air China, Eastern Airlines, and Southern Airlines due to ongoing pressure on domestic ticket prices, posing downside risks to profits in 2025 and 2026 [1] - A "buy" rating was maintained for Spring Airlines, attributed to its cost leadership position and expected stable growth in 2025 and 2026 [1]

Core Insights - The recovery of the China-Canada route is lagging behind other international routes, similar to the China-US route, with a current recovery rate of only 35.6% compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019 [1][3] - The number of international flight tickets to Canada from China has increased by 28.1% year-on-year from January to October this year [1] - The number of flights on the China-Canada route has significantly increased, with a total of 319 round-trip flights scheduled for October 2025, representing a growth of over 2.5 times [1] Flight Recovery Challenges - The slow recovery of the China-Canada flights is partly due to restrictions imposed by Canada on the number of flights allowed for Chinese airlines, initially limiting them to no more than six round-trip flights per week [3] - Although Canada has lifted the restriction on direct flights from Beijing, the approved flight volume remains significantly lower than pre-pandemic levels, which exceeded 70 flights per week [3][4] Airline Operations - Currently, six mainland Chinese airlines operate on the China-Canada route, with Air Canada being the only Canadian airline flying this route [4] - In October, the top three routes by flight volume were Shanghai Pudong to Vancouver (80 flights), Beijing Capital to Vancouver (70 flights), and Shanghai Pudong to Pearson (36 flights) [4] Market Dynamics - Domestic airlines currently hold a larger share of the flight volume on the China-Canada route, indicating that Air Canada has not fully utilized its approved flight rights [6] - Despite a year-on-year increase of over 2.1 times in Air Canada's flight volume in October, it still represents a decline of 65.3% compared to 2019 [6] International Route Landscape - The recovery of the China-US route is also hindered by similar restrictions, with Chinese airlines required to avoid Russian airspace, impacting operational efficiency [7] - The competitive landscape for international routes is changing, with domestic airlines increasing their market share from 59.1% in 2019 to 69.6% in the first half of this year, while foreign airlines' share has decreased correspondingly [8]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic civil aviation industry in China is expected to turn profitable in 2024, with the three major state-owned airlines (Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines) achieving profitability in the first three quarters of 2025 after years of losses [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance of Major Airlines - All three major state-owned airlines reported revenue growth and profitability in the first three quarters of 2025, benefiting from the summer travel peak and foreign exchange gains [2]. - Air China achieved a net profit of 1.87 billion yuan in the first three quarters, while China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines reported net profits of 2.10 billion yuan and 2.31 billion yuan, respectively [3]. - The three major airlines had accumulated losses exceeding 200 billion yuan over the past five years, but signs of recovery are evident, with expectations for profitability in 2025 [3]. Group 2: International Market Growth - The international market has become a key growth area for major airlines, with significant increases in passenger turnover on international routes compared to domestic routes [4]. - For the first nine months of the year, Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines reported international passenger turnover growth rates of 14.9%, 24.16%, and 19.54%, respectively, compared to domestic growth rates of 1.2%, 6.08%, and 4.10% [4]. - China Eastern Airlines has been actively expanding its international routes, including the launch of a new route from Shanghai to Buenos Aires, which will set a record for the longest single-route flight [4]. Group 3: Challenges Faced by Private Airlines - Private airlines such as Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines reported declines in net profit for the first three quarters, with Spring Airlines losing its title as the "most profitable airline" to Hainan Airlines [6]. - Despite increased flight and passenger volumes, many airlines are struggling to achieve profitability due to lower ticket prices driven by intense competition and market dynamics [7]. - The average ticket price has decreased significantly, with a drop of over 20% in February and more than 8% during the peak summer months, impacting overall profitability [7][8].

Core Insights - The domestic civil aviation industry in China is expected to turn profitable in 2024, with the three major state-owned airlines (Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines) achieving profitability in the first three quarters of 2025 after years of losses [1][2][3] - Despite the overall recovery, low-cost carriers like Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines have reported declines in performance, with Spring Airlines losing its title as the "most profitable airline" to Hainan Airlines [1][6] - The international aviation market is becoming a key growth area for major airlines, with significant increases in international passenger turnover compared to domestic routes [4][5] Group 1: Financial Performance of Major Airlines - All three major airlines reported revenue growth and profitability in the first three quarters of 2025, benefiting from the summer travel peak and foreign exchange gains [2] - Air China achieved a net profit of 1.87 billion yuan in the first three quarters, while China Eastern and China Southern reported net profits of 2.10 billion yuan and 2.31 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The three major airlines have cumulatively lost over 200 billion yuan from 2020 to 2024, but signs of recovery are evident, with expectations for profitability in 2025 [3] Group 2: International Market Growth - The international passenger turnover for the three major airlines has significantly outpaced domestic turnover, with Air China's international turnover increasing by 14.9% compared to 1.2% for domestic [4] - China Eastern Airlines has been actively expanding its international routes, recently launching a new route that sets a record for the longest single-route flight [4] - China Southern Airlines has also reported improved international performance, with current metrics exceeding pre-pandemic levels [5] Group 3: Challenges Faced by Low-Cost Carriers - Both Juneyao Airlines and Spring Airlines experienced declines in net profit, with Spring Airlines' profitability affected despite increased revenue [6][7] - The competitive landscape remains challenging, with many airlines experiencing increased flight volumes but not corresponding profitability due to lower ticket prices [7] - The average ticket price has seen a significant decline, with prices dropping by over 20% in some months compared to the previous year, impacting overall revenue [7][8]

Core Insights - All seven listed airlines in China reported profits for the third quarter of 2025, with performance growth varying significantly among them [1][2] Group 1: Major Airlines Performance - The three major state-owned airlines (Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines) generated over 140 billion yuan in revenue for Q3, a year-on-year increase of over 2%, and net profits exceeding 11 billion yuan, up over 10% [1][3] - For the first three quarters, the three major airlines collectively reported revenues of approximately 373.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 2%, and net profits exceeding 6.2 billion yuan, up over 90% [1][3] - China Eastern Airlines achieved a turnaround from losses to profits, while Air China and China Southern Airlines saw net profit increases of over 37% and 17%, respectively [2][4] Group 2: Private Airlines Performance - The four private airlines (Hainan Airlines, Spring Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, and Huaxia Airlines) reported combined revenues of over 35.3 billion yuan for Q3, with a year-on-year increase of over 2%, but net profits dropped by over 4% [1][5] - For the first three quarters, these private airlines generated revenues exceeding 93.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 3%, and net profits nearing 6.9 billion yuan, an 8% increase [1][6] - Hainan Airlines reported a significant increase in net profit, while Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines experienced declines of over 10% in net profits [4][10] Group 3: Financial Metrics - In Q3, Air China reported revenues of 49.07 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.68 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.31% in net profit [3] - China Eastern Airlines achieved revenues of 39.59 billion yuan and a net profit of 3.53 billion yuan, with a net profit increase of 34.37% [3] - China Southern Airlines reported revenues of 51.37 billion yuan and a net profit of 3.84 billion yuan, marking a 20.26% increase in net profit [3] Group 4: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The aviation market is expected to maintain growth momentum in Q4, driven by increased travel demand during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with an anticipated 5% year-on-year growth in passenger volume [15] - Hainan Airlines is positioned to benefit from the upcoming full closure of the Hainan Free Trade Port, enhancing its market share in both passenger and cargo transport [10][11] - The competitive landscape remains challenging, with Air China highlighting the impact of non-operational factors such as reduced foreign exchange gains on its profitability [8][9]