Core Insights - The Hainan Free Trade Port has officially launched its full island closure, leading to a significant milestone where the annual passenger throughput of Hainan's three major airports has surpassed 50 million for the first time, highlighting the strong vitality of the free trade port's openness [1] Group 1: Hainan Airlines - Hainan Airlines views the 50 million passenger milestone as a strong indication of the aviation market potential in the free trade port, planning to leverage this opportunity to enhance its role as a key player in air transport [2] - The airline has established a dual system of "Premium Express" and "Free Trade Port Express" routes, connecting major cities and enhancing efficiency between Hainan and key economic regions [2] - Hainan Airlines operates 27 international and regional routes, promoting a seamless travel experience for over 105,000 passengers through its services [2] Group 2: China Southern Airlines - China Southern Airlines sees the 50 million passenger milestone as both a result of Hainan's civil aviation development and a driving force for its own growth in the free trade port [3] - The airline is focused on optimizing its route network and enhancing its business express services to better connect Hainan with the world [3] - Currently, China Southern Airlines operates 29 routes from Haikou and 26 from Sanya, providing robust support for the free trade port's connectivity [3] Group 3: Russian Airlines - Russian Airlines expresses excitement over the 50 million passenger milestone, planning to launch new routes from Moscow to Sanya and expand its network to include additional destinations by 2025 [4][5] - The airline operates 11 cross-border routes, contributing significantly to the influx of tourists into Sanya, with an average seat occupancy rate of over 88% [5] - Russian Airlines aims to further increase flight frequency and optimize its route network to enhance cross-border travel potential between China and Russia [5] Group 4: Industry Overview - Over 70 domestic and international airlines are currently operating passenger and cargo routes in Hainan Free Trade Port, collectively establishing a convenient air passage to domestic and international destinations [5] - The collaboration among various airlines is expected to create a denser route network and improved service quality, contributing to the long-term stability and growth of Hainan's free trade port [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the aviation industry [6]. Core Insights - The Chinese civil aviation industry is expected to continue its recovery in supply and demand in 2025, with a forecasted industry-wide turnaround from losses to profitability [3][6]. - Demand is projected to grow steadily, with an estimated 5-6% increase in passenger traffic in 2025, including a 4% rise in domestic routes and over 20% in international routes [6][10]. - The supply side is entering a low growth phase, with a projected 3.7% increase in the fleet size of seven A-share airlines by November 2025 compared to the end of 2024 [6][19]. - The passenger load factor is expected to reach a historical high of 85%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [6][22]. - Ticket prices remain at historically low levels, with domestic ticket prices estimated to decrease by 2-3% year-on-year in 2025 [6][25]. - The industry is anticipated to significantly reduce losses and turn profitable in 2025, with quarterly performance showing improvements in profitability [6]. Summary by Sections Demand and Supply - Passenger traffic is expected to grow by 5-6% in 2025, with domestic routes increasing by 4% and international routes by over 20% [6][10]. - The industry is entering a low growth phase, with a projected 6% increase in available seat kilometers (ASK) [6][19]. Load Factor and Pricing - The passenger load factor is projected to increase by 1.8 percentage points to 85% [6][22]. - Domestic ticket prices are estimated to decrease by 2-3% year-on-year, while international ticket prices may see significant increases in the latter half of the year due to strong inbound demand [6][25]. Profitability Outlook - The industry is expected to turn profitable in 2025, with significant reductions in losses anticipated throughout the year [6]. - Quarterly performance indicates that the first quarter may see limited profit improvement due to high base effects, while the second quarter is expected to show substantial recovery [6].

Core Insights - From January 12, 2026, China Southern Airlines will operate the C919 aircraft on the Nanjing-Guangzhou route, marking a significant step towards the normalization of domestic large aircraft operations in Nanjing [1] Group 1: C919 Aircraft Overview - The C919, developed by COMAC, is China's first jet airliner designed according to international airworthiness standards, featuring independent intellectual property rights [3] - The aircraft has a maximum passenger capacity of 190, with its name symbolizing China's aviation aspirations [3] Group 2: Operational Milestones - The first commercial flight of the C919 took place on May 28, 2023, when Eastern Airlines operated the aircraft from Shanghai to Beijing, marking the beginning of commercial operations for this model [4] - Currently, nearly 20 airports in China have regular routes for the C919, extending beyond major cities to include destinations like Chongqing, Chengdu, and Wuhan [4]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：民航故事汇 在深航和山航发年终奖之后，详见：深航、山航发年终奖了 国航也发了，整体和2024年差不多。 2024年国航的年终奖是这样发的： 飞行700小时左右的飞行员5万左右 商委非一线员工1.8万左右 地服差不多1到1.5万左右，主要看工资档和绩效档 厦航也发了，比去年发的多。 有个小伙伴说多了几千块，据说后面还有。 2024年厦航的年终奖是这样发的： 空乘：乘务员1.2万左右，乘务长2万左右 南航应该明天发，去年是3A奖，今年是五好奖，换个名义，钱差不多。 机务：航线技师中位数3万左右 羡慕央企国企，希望民营航司也争口气。赚钱的多发点，让员工过个好节！ 地面岗应该1万至3万不等，副驾也差不多这个数 往期文章回顾： 旗下的航司也发了，应该会少一点 国货航，第四个领导被查！ 旗下北方子航司职能部门员工1万出头，中级专员1万5左右 刚刚，东航发"年终奖" 山航，客服的问题？ 这个"机长"，求鉴定！ 东航，增加员工福利 海航旗下这家航司，退出历史？ 深圳机场，叶滨、陈智文．．．． 这．．．也能投诉国航空姐？ 长龙航空，愿赔100元 责 ...

Investment Strategy Overview - The transportation industry is closely linked to the macroeconomic environment, with a weak overall performance in 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index. Key segments like railways and highways have weakened due to style shifts, while logistics, aviation, and shipping have seen some support in the second half of the year from anti-involution and external demand factors, but still lag behind the market index. Looking ahead to 2026, domestic demand is expected to improve driven by anti-involution and major infrastructure projects, with recommendations to focus on (1) improved domestic express delivery competition and benefiting bulk supply chains from upstream price recovery, (2) growth in business and leisure demand potentially returning aviation airports to profitability, and (3) the high prosperity cycle of oil transportation [5][72]. 2025 Review - The transportation industry index showed a stable performance, with a cumulative increase of 1.55% as of December 29, 2025, but underperformed the CSI 300 index. The performance of sub-sectors varied, with aviation airports, shipping ports, railways, and logistics showing cumulative changes of 9.74%, 6.56%, -12.86%, and 6.34% respectively, all underperforming the CSI 300 index [13][14]. Aviation Sector - The aviation supply-demand landscape continues to improve, with aircraft utilization recovering to high levels. Domestic civil aviation demand has been steadily increasing, with passenger volume reaching new highs in the second half of 2025. The average daily utilization of aircraft in China was 8.7 hours as of November 2025, nearing pre-pandemic levels [18][21]. - The average ticket price has stabilized, with a peak passenger load factor of 87.5% in August 2025. The market supply-demand situation is tight, and further tightening could boost ticket prices [23][24]. - The supply side faces challenges with aircraft manufacturers struggling to restore production capacity, with Boeing and Airbus delivering significantly fewer aircraft than pre-pandemic levels. As of 2024, Boeing delivered 348 commercial aircraft, while Airbus delivered 766, both below their respective 2019 levels [25][26]. - The demand side is supported by policy initiatives that have revitalized business activities, with business line passenger volume increasing year-on-year in the first eight months of 2025 [34][36]. - Cost pressures are alleviated by declining oil prices, with WTI futures at $56.74 per barrel as of December 26, 2025, down 54.13% from peak levels. The strengthening of the RMB also reduces dollar-denominated debt burdens for airlines [40][43]. Oil Transportation Sector - The oil transportation industry is currently in a high prosperity cycle, with oil prices influenced by demand fluctuations and unexpected events. The BDTI index has seen an uptick, indicating potential for improved industry conditions [46][47]. - Short-term demand is driven by significant U.S. strategic petroleum reserve replenishment needs, while long-term demand is expected to stabilize globally. The IEA forecasts a growth of 2.5 million barrels per day in global oil demand from 2024 to 2030 [49][51]. - The supply side is characterized by tight compliance capacity, with sanctions on shadow fleets leading to a reduction in compliant shipping capacity. This is expected to gradually elevate oil transportation rates [56][57]. Bulk Supply Chain Sector - The bulk supply chain sector is transitioning from traditional trading and logistics models to integrated service provider models, enhancing resource control and operational efficiency. Leading companies are learning from international experiences to improve their market positions [60][63]. - The sector is currently fragmented, with a low market share for leading firms (CR5 at around 5%). As domestic companies consolidate, there is potential for increased market share and profitability [63][64]. - The anti-involution trend is expected to stabilize the PPI, benefiting bulk supply chains as they recover from price declines. The sector is poised to benefit from price rebounds and improved demand conditions [65][66]. Investment Recommendations - Maintain a market-weight rating for the transportation industry, with a focus on improving domestic demand and sector recovery in 2026. Recommended stocks include China National Aviation (601111), Southern Airlines (600029), and Xiamen Xiangyu (600057) [72][74].

Core Viewpoint - The aviation and airport sector experienced a decline of 1.18% on December 30, with China Southern Airlines leading the drop. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3965.12, down 0.0%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.49% to 13604.07 [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - The following stocks in the aviation and airport sector showed notable price changes: - China Southern Airlines (南方航空) closed at 7.66, down 1.03% with a trading volume of 545,000 shares and a transaction value of 418 million yuan [1]. - Xiamen Airport (厦门空港) closed at 17.48, down 2.35% with a trading volume of 100,200 shares and a transaction value of 176 million yuan [2]. - Spring Airlines (春秋航空) closed at 57.60, down 1.42% with a trading volume of 56,100 shares and a transaction value of 322 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector saw a net outflow of 120 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 175 million yuan [2]. - The capital flow for specific stocks included: - China National Aviation (中国国航) had a net inflow of 46.13 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 47.90 million yuan [3]. - Xiamen Airport (厦门空港) experienced a net outflow of 26.25 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net inflow of 38.02 million yuan from retail investors [3].

Shipping Industry - The shipping market is experiencing a seasonal downturn, with oil shipping rates under pressure due to the holiday season and geopolitical tensions affecting supply [2] - Despite entering a low season, the oil shipping demand structure is improving, suggesting a potential upward trend in rates [2] - The container shipping market is expected to face significant pressure on rates by 2026 due to ongoing trade risks and the delivery of new capacity [2] Aviation Industry - Domestic passenger flight volumes have increased slightly, with overall and domestic flights up by 1.3% and 1.5% respectively compared to the previous week [3] - The average ticket price for economy class during the upcoming New Year holiday is projected at 597 yuan, reflecting a 1.1% decrease from 2024 but a 6.7% increase from 2025 [3] - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from a recovering domestic economy, with significant potential for earnings growth as supply constraints from aircraft manufacturers persist [3] Express Delivery Industry - The "anti-involution" policy has led to price increases in the express delivery sector, with most regions in China experiencing price hikes since July [4] - The profitability of express delivery companies is expected to improve in Q4 due to these price increases, despite a decline in overall package volume growth [4] - Companies like Zhongtong and Yuantong are outperforming the market, benefiting from a reduced reliance on low-cost packages [4] Investment Recommendations - The company recommends investing in growth-oriented value stocks and cyclical stocks at low price points, including Zhongtong Express, Yuantong Express, China Eastern Airlines, and others [5]

消息面上，据新华社12月27日报道，全国人大常委会会议12月27日表决通过新修订的民用航空法，自 2026年7月1日起施行。这部新修订的法律共16章262条，本次修法贯彻落实党中央决策部署，适应民航 事业发展新形势新要求，充实完善规范民用航空活动、保障民用航空安全和支持民航制造业、运输业、 低空经济发展的各方面制度措施，对于推动民航事业高质量发展具有重要意义。 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 曾庆怡）12月29日上午，A股民用航空概念震荡上涨。截至10时11分，中国 国航涨超6%，中国东航、南方航空涨超3%。港股航空板块同步拉升，中国国航、中国东方航空股份涨 超3%，中国南方航空股份涨超2%。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 曾庆怡）12月29日上午，A股民用航空概念震荡上涨。截至10时11分，中国 国航涨超6%，中国东航、南方航空涨超3%。港股航空板块同步拉升，中国国航、中国东方航空股份涨 超3%，中国南方航空股份涨超2%。 消息面上，据新华社12月27日报道，全国人大常委会会议12月27日表决通过新修订的民用航空法，自 2026年7月1日起施行。这部新修订的法律共16章262条，本次修法 ...

消息面上，近日，离岸人民币对美元汇率一度升破"7"整数关口。另据央视财经报道，2026年元旦假期 快到了，越来越多的消费者通过旅行的方式辞旧迎新。数据显示：2026年元旦假期，从北京、天津、上 海等城市飞往三亚、海口、昆明、广州、长白山（603099）、哈尔滨等热门目的地的机票预订量环比上 涨较快。截至12月25日，国内航线机票预订量超271万张，同比增长约35%。 中泰证券（600918）认为，人民币汇率升值下航司汇兑压力缓解。此外，元旦假期将至（2026年元旦放 假安排为1月1日（周四）至3日（周六）），假期构成灵活，可通过拼假延长假期，利好航空出行。短 期来看，伴随原油价格破位下行、人民币汇率走强，以及元旦及春运假期催化，航空量价向好预期较 强，看好基本面积极变化带动下的航空投资机会。 航空股早盘普涨，截至发稿，中国国航（601111）(00753)涨4.41%，报7.1港元；东方航空(00670)涨 3.73%，报5.29港元；南方航空（600029）(01055)涨1.97%，报5.7港元。 ...

今天分享的是：国际市场快速修复，行业运行稳中提质—2025年航空运输行业回顾及展望 报告共计：11页 2025年航空运输行业运行总结及2026年展望 2025年航空运输行业整体运行稳中提质，国内客货运市场稳步增长，国际业务快速修复，政策引导行业规范发展，企业经营业 绩持续改善，信用风险展望为稳定。 行业发展环境持续优化。2025年我国经济稳中有进，前三季度GDP同比增长5.2%，居民人均可支配收入实际增长5.2%，外贸进 出口同比增长4%，为航空运输业提供坚实支撑。政策层面聚焦运营效益提升与国际市场拓展，修订国际客运航权配置规则，发 布《空中丝绸之路建设发展报告》，推进"一带一路"航空合作，出台航空客运自律公约遏制恶性竞争，冬春航季加大旅游航线 与国际航班运力投放，中印航线全面复航，助力行业高质量发展。 市场运行呈现"国内稳增、国际复苏"态势。2025年前三季度，全行业完成运输总周转量1220.3亿吨公里，同比增长10.3%。客运 方面，旅客周转量达10536.5亿人公里，同比增长8.1%，其中国内航线增长4.2%，国际航线增长23.5%，已超过2019年同期水 平；旅客运输量5.82亿人次，同比增长5.2% ...