2025年06月24日 证券研究报告| 存款搬家下的价值回归 ——2025年下半年非银金融投资策略 行业研究·深度报告 非银金融 投资评级：优于大市（维持） | 证券分析师：孔祥 | 证券分析师：王德坤 | 联系人：王京灵 | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-60375452 | 021-61761035 | 0755-22941150 | | kongxiang@guosen.com.cn | wangdekun@guosen.com.cn | wangjingling@guosen.com.cn | | S0980523060004 | S0980524070008 | | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 -25,000 -20,000 -15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 2009年3月 2009年9月 2010年3月 2010年9月 2011年3月 2011年9月 2012年3月 2012年9月 201 ...

国外 1. 高盛：伊朗若扰动霍尔木兹海峡，布油最高或飙升至110美元 高盛表示，尽管仍然认为油气供应不会出现重大中断，但供应的下行风险和价格预测的上行风险已经上 升。PolyMarket预测市场现在认为，伊朗在2025年扰乱霍尔木兹海峡的可能性很高。如果仅仅是伊朗的 石油供应减少175万桶/日，预计布伦特原油价格将攀升至约90美元/桶的峰值。如果霍尔木兹海峡的石 油流量在一个月内减少50%，并在随后11个月内持续减少10%，预计布油价格将短暂飙升至约110美元/ 桶的峰值。欧洲天然气（TTF）和液化天然气市场也将反映出发生重大供应中断的可能性。预计TTF价 格将上涨至接近74欧元/兆瓦时的水平。 2. 汇丰：美国政策的不确定性仍令美元承压 汇丰银行的分析师Paul Mackel在一份报告中表示，由于美国政策的不确定性仍是一个负担，美元有进 一步适度贬值的空间。他表示："我们对未来局势将趋于平稳持怀疑态度，因为当前仍有许多贸易谈判 正在进行，达成的协议也多缺乏细节。"他还指出，美国财政政策也是另一大不确定因素，特别是可能 对全球投资者征税的问题。与此同时，结构性去美元化正显示出某种日益重要的迹象。不过他表示，尽 ...

智通财经6月24日电，中信证券研报指出，地缘政治紧张局势加剧背景下，全球军费开支高速增长，欧 盟于2025年3月宣布"重新武装欧洲计划"，拟于2025-2030年间调动约8000亿欧元，重点支持导弹防御、 无人机、网络安全等领域，我们认为军工领域需求有望保持景气，叠加印巴冲突、伊以局势升温，我国 军贸规模有望持续扩大，进而带动上游钛合金、高温合金、钨、钼、锗等军工金属材料需求高速增长， 上游企业有望迎来业绩与估值的双重修复，当前时点建议关注军工金属板块配置机会。 中信证券：地缘政治带动军费高增 军工金属配置正当时 ...

中信证券研报指出，欧洲生物航煤（SAF）价格持续上涨，目前已突破2230美金/吨。欧洲提出高额补 贴计划，强制添加政策的执行力度或加强，预计需求将爆发。25H1欧洲SAF价格低迷，新增供给不及 预期，供需缺口明显。同时原料成本支撑强，未来价格弹性较大。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the decision to hold a communication-based meeting for the holders of the CITIC Securities Cash Added Benefit Money Market Fund to discuss the change of the fund manager to Huaxia Fund Management Co., Ltd. and the registration change to Huaxia Cash Added Benefit Money Market Fund [30][31][35] - The fund management company is CITIC Securities Asset Management Co., Ltd., and the custodian is China Securities Depository and Clearing Co., Ltd. The fund is set to expire on July 25, 2025, with a possibility of extension [2][35] - The meeting will take place from June 26, 2025, to July 25, 2025, with a voting deadline at 5:00 PM on July 25, 2025 [2][6] Group 2 - The agenda for the meeting includes the proposal to change the fund manager and the registration to Huaxia Cash Added Benefit Money Market Fund [4][30] - The voting rights are granted to all holders registered by the equity registration date of June 24, 2025 [6] - The voting process allows for various methods including paper ballots, SMS, and online authorization for individual investors [10][13][14] Group 3 - The proposal requires a two-thirds majority approval from the participating fund holders for it to be valid [37][46] - The management company may suspend subscription and redemption services during the transition period after the meeting's resolution [32][45] - The changes will be effective upon the approval of the fund holders and will be announced within two days of the resolution [22][37]

智通财经6月23日电，利弗莫尔证券显示，斯坦德机器人（无锡）股份有限公司向港交所提交上市申请 书，联席保荐人为中信证券、国泰君安国际。 ...

Core Insights - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has released the latest rankings for ETF-related activities among securities firms as of the end of May, highlighting the competitive landscape in the ETF market [3][4]. ETF Holdings Ranking - As of May 2025, the total number of ETFs in the Shanghai market is 691, with a total market value of 30,018.81 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.33% increase from the previous period [4]. - China Galaxy Securities leads the market with a holding scale of 24.63%, followed by Shenwan Hongyuan at 18.05%, and CITIC Securities and China Merchants Securities at 6.06% and 4.78%, respectively [5][4]. ETF Trading Volume Ranking - In May, Huatai Securities topped the ETF trading volume with an 11.3% market share, significantly ahead of CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan Securities, which had 9.35% and 7.48% market shares, respectively [6][4]. - The total trading amount for ETFs in May reached 30,097.61 billion yuan, with an average daily trading amount of 1,584.08 billion yuan [4]. ETF Trading Accounts Ranking - Huatai Securities and Oriental Fortune lead in the number of ETF trading accounts, each holding over 10% market share at 11.59% and 11.18%, respectively [8][9]. - China Galaxy and Ping An Securities also have significant account shares, exceeding 5% [9]. Competitive Landscape - Leading securities firms are enhancing their ETF business strategies, with Guotai Haitong focusing on optimizing the ETF ecosystem and private equity services, while Huatai Securities leverages advanced technology for trading services [10]. - Smaller firms are seeking differentiated development paths, with firms like Caitong Asset Management investing in passive equity products and Guohai Securities enhancing their wealth management capabilities [10].

【导读】上交所公布证券公司5月ETF相关排名情况 见习记者 舍梨 ETF已成为券商财富管理转型的重要抓手。6月23日，记者从券商处获悉，近日，上交所在向 机构发布的市场通讯中披露了各券商ETF业务最新数据。数据显示，截至5月末，沪市ETF持 有规模中，中国银河、申万宏源持续领跑；成交额方面，华泰证券5月份以11.3%的市场占比 蝉联沪市榜首，中信证券紧随其后。 从行业格局来看，券商在ETF赛道的竞争愈发激烈，头部券商凭借综合实力在成交额、客户覆 盖面等方面稳居前列，部分中小券商则通过聚焦特色化服务寻求突围路径。 ETF持有规模排名 中国银河、申万宏源持续领跑 数据显示，截至2025年5月底，沪市基金产品共858只，资产管理总规模30774.69亿元。其 中，ETF共691只，总市值30018.81亿元，较上期增加1.33%，总份额17225.45亿份，较 上期减少1.81%。5月份，ETF累计成交金额30097.61亿元，日均成交金额1584.08亿元。 持有ETF的规模是体现券商ETF实力的关键指标之一。据上交所披露，截至5月末，券商经纪 业务持有沪市ETF规模排在榜首的是中国银河，持有规模占市场比重为24 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the stable operation of the capital market is the current policy's main theme, with a focus on maintaining a stable and active capital market to support economic recovery and investor confidence [1][15][20] - The report highlights a comprehensive set of financial policies introduced on May 7, 2025, by the People's Bank of China, the Financial Regulatory Bureau, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission to stabilize market expectations and enhance liquidity [16][21][25] - The report indicates that the securities industry experienced a significant revenue increase of 11.15% year-on-year in 2024, with a notable profit growth of 21.35%, and a further increase in Q1 2025 with revenue growth of 24.60% and net profit growth of 83.48% [8][14][27] Group 2 - The report provides a forward-looking analysis for 2025, predicting that brokerage business will see a recovery in activity, with retail brokerage contributing significantly to revenue growth, while proprietary trading is expected to revert to average levels after a recent increase [8][18][31] - The investment strategy section suggests that the securities sector may face a challenging environment in the second half of 2025, with performance pressures expected to increase, but overall profitability is anticipated to remain stable [8][4][38] - The report recommends focusing on leading brokerage firms that are likely to perform well in a recovering market, as well as those with significant earnings elasticity and those with valuations below the sector average [8][4][39]

证券代码：600030 证券简称：中信证券 公告编号：临2025-047 中信证券股份有限公司 关于间接子公司发行中期票据 并由全资子公司提供担保的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 公司境外全资子公司中信证券国际的附属公司CSI MTN Limited（以下简称发 行人或被担保人）于2022年3月29日设立本金总额最高为50亿美元（或等值其他货 币）的境外中期票据计划（以下简称中票计划），此中票计划由中信证券国际提 供担保。 发行人分别于2025年6月20日、23日在中票计划下各发行一笔票据，发行金额 分别为3,000万美元、500万美元。 本次发行后，发行人在中票计划下已发行票据的本金余额合计34.08亿美元。 二、被担保人基本情况 （一）被担保人概述 1. 公司名称：CSI MTN Limited 2. 注册地点：英属维尔京群岛（BVI）（注册号：2087199） 1 重要内容提示： 一、担保情况概述 被担保人名称：CSI MTN Limited 本次担保金额：3,500万美元 已实际为其提供的担保余额 ...