沪指12月3日下跌0.51%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有6个，涨幅居前的行业为交通运输、有色金 属，涨幅分别为0.69%、0.63%。跌幅居前的行业为传媒、计算机，跌幅分别为2.86%、2.26%。房地产 行业位居今日跌幅榜第三。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 房地产行业今日下跌1.53%，全天主力资金净流出11.15亿元，该行业所属的个股共100只，今日上涨的 有13只，涨停的有1只；下跌的有86只，跌停的有1只。以资金流向数据进行统计，该行业资金净流入的 个股有34只，其中，净流入资金超千万元的有9只，净流入资金居首的是合肥城建，今日净流入资金 7810.06万元，紧随其后的是衢州发展、财信发展，净流入资金分别为5556.98万元、4905.83万元。房地 产行业资金净流出个股中，资金净流出超5000万元的有8只，净流出资金居前的有万科A、保利发展、 盈新发展，净流出资金分别为2.14亿元、1.52亿元、1.26亿元。（数据宝） 房地产行业资金流入榜 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The report emphasizes that real estate is a crucial asset allocation and investment direction for Chinese households, and stabilizing housing prices is significant for facilitating economic circulation. The policy environment is expected to strengthen further, promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector [4][41] - The report highlights the potential for a wave of development in high-quality residential properties due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure. Additionally, the sentiment in the Hong Kong private residential market is gradually recovering, indicating a new round of value reassessment for Hong Kong developers [4] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.4%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.6%, the ChiNext Index by 4.5%, and the CSI 300 Index by 1.6%. The real estate sector (Shenwan) increased by 0.7% during the week [4][7] - The top five stocks in terms of growth were Wantong Development (+19.3%), *ST Nan Zhi (+12.6%), Xinhua Group (+10.5%), Zhangjiang Hi-Tech (+9.7%), and Tianbao Infrastructure (+9.2%). The bottom five were Huaxia Happiness (-14.9%), Jingji Zhino (-14.8%), Vanke A (-11.2%), Hefei Urban Construction (-9.8%), and Jindi Group (-6.2%) [4][7] New Housing Transactions - In the week of November 22-28, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 2.06 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 9.8% but a year-on-year decrease of 51.1% [11] - For November (up to the week of November 28), new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 7.24 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 0.8% but a year-on-year decrease of 43.1% [15] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the week of November 22-28, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 202,000 square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 0.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 18.5% [26] - For November (up to the week of November 28), second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 8 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 27.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 19.2% [31] Industry News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has introduced a draft for the pilot program of commercial real estate investment trusts (REITs) to promote high-quality development in the REITs market and support the construction of a new model for real estate development [2][41] - Various local governments are implementing policies to enhance housing affordability and stimulate the real estate market, such as increasing the loan limits for purchasing high-quality residential properties in cities like Xuzhou and Changzhou [41] Company Announcements - Notable financing activities include China Merchants Shekou issuing bonds up to 5.04 billion yuan with a fixed interest rate of 1.77% for three years, and Poly Developments issuing medium-term notes with varying maturities and interest rates [44][45]

保利发展 20251202 摘要 保利发展面临老项目带来的经营压力，通过调整存量土地、换退地等方 式积极应对，而非依赖报表减值。公司过去几年已结转亏损项目超 400 亿元，实质性消化存量压力，并计划在年底重新评估所有项目，以确保 业绩稳定并逐步缓解历史包袱。 公司目前已售未结货值接近 3,000 亿元，整体毛利率约 13-14%。增量 资源未售货值不到 1,000 万平方米，均价约 3 万元/平方米；存量已开 工部分 2,100 万平方米，今年销售均价 1.1 万-1.5 万元/平方米；未开 工土地 2,700 万平方米，账面价值 800-900 亿元，计划通过调整换退 改善资源价值。 增量项目净利润率预计在 6%-8%之间，而存量项目受市场下行影响， 整体毛利率接近于零甚至亏损。公司预计存量项目未来仍面临一定压力， 但将通过增量项目带动存量，改善资源质量，加快调整存量带来的利润 压力。 2025 年前 10 个月拓展金额达 600 多亿元，投资主要集中在 38 个核心 城市，其中 10 个城市占七八成投资额。公司对广州市场持乐观态度， 认为其改善需求潜力巨大，并关注产品提质逻辑。 Q&A 保利发展资金安全， ...

Group 1 - The real estate market is experiencing a year-end surge with increased new home supply and a more aggressive pace of project launches by developers, indicating signs of structural recovery in the new home market [1] - In November, 30 key cities are expected to see a new supply of 6.69 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 16%, with first-tier cities contributing significantly to this growth [1] - The average absorption rate for newly launched projects in November across 30 key cities is 34%, with cities like Tianjin, Suzhou, and Ningbo showing rates exceeding 60% [1] Group 2 - The sales revenue of real estate companies has steadily increased, with 8 companies achieving total sales exceeding 100 billion yuan in the first 11 months of the year, led by Poly Developments with 240.8 billion yuan [2] - In November, 38 real estate companies reported month-on-month sales growth, with 15 companies experiencing increases over 30%, showcasing resilience among leading firms [2] - Competitive dynamics are intensifying in key cities, with the top 30 companies in Shanghai achieving a combined sales revenue of 439.29 billion yuan in the first 11 months, highlighting the competitive landscape [2] Group 3 - Real estate companies are increasing marketing efforts and launching multiple projects to accelerate sales, aiming for a new balance in the market amid ongoing adjustments [3] - Companies with strong sales performance typically exhibit characteristics such as stable operations and a focus on core cities, positioning them as leaders in the industry [3] - The proactive approach of developers in increasing supply and optimizing project offerings, combined with favorable policy environments in core cities, is expected to provide a solid foundation for market stabilization [3]

Core Insights - The real estate land market in China is experiencing a structural differentiation as major real estate companies adopt a more cautious approach to land acquisition as the year-end approaches [1][2][16] - The total land acquisition amount for the top 100 real estate companies reached 847.8 billion yuan from January to November, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, although the growth rate has significantly slowed compared to the previous months [2][6] - The trend of joint land acquisition among private real estate companies is becoming more common, particularly in first- and second-tier cities [11][13] Land Acquisition Trends - In November, private real estate companies focused on advantageous regions, with joint acquisition models becoming more prevalent [1][11] - The top three companies in terms of new value added from January to November are China Overseas Land & Investment (1,963 billion yuan), China Merchants Shekou (1,833 billion yuan), and Greentown China (1,293 billion yuan) [6][8] - The top 10 companies accounted for 54.1% of the total land acquisition amount among the top 100 companies, indicating a significant concentration of land acquisition among leading firms [6][16] Market Dynamics - The average premium rate for land transactions in November was 4.1%, reflecting a low level of market heat, with most land parcels sold at base prices [15][16] - Notable land acquisition cases include a competitive bid by Maoyuan Real Estate in Beijing, which won a plot for 5.024 billion yuan with an 18.21% premium [13] - The investment strategy of private companies has shifted from nationwide expansion to focusing on core areas, aiming to maintain survival and development in familiar markets [14][16] Future Outlook - The industry is witnessing an irreversible trend of increasing concentration, with resources continuing to flow towards leading companies, thereby squeezing the survival space for smaller firms [16] - The collaboration model in land acquisition is expected to become mainstream, reshaping the future development and cooperation landscape in the real estate sector [16]

2025 年第五次临时股东大会 保利发展控股集团股份有限公司 2025 年第五次临时股东大会 会议资料 （2025 年 12 月） 2025 年第五次临时股东大会 2025 年第五次临时股东大会 保利发展控股集团股份有限公司 2025 年第五次临时股东大会 会议议程 保利发展控股集团股份有限公司 2025 年第五次临时股东大会须知 根据中国证券监督管理委员会《上市公司股东会规则》和《公司 章程》的有关规定，为确保公司股东大会顺利召开，特制定会议须知 如下，望出席股东大会的全体人员遵守执行： 一、股东参加股东大会，应当认真履行其法定义务，不得侵犯其 他股东权益； 二、股东大会期间，全体出席人员应以维护股东的合法利益、确 保大会正常秩序和议事效率为原则，认真履行法定职责； 三、出席大会的股东依法享有发言权、咨询权、表决权等各项权 利，但需由公司统一安排发言和解答； 四、任何人不得扰乱大会的正常秩序和会议程序，会议期间请关 闭手机或将其调至振动状态。 一、会议时间： 现场会议召开时间：2025 年 12 月 8 日（星期一），下午 2:30 网络投票时间：采用上海证券交易所网络投票系统，通过交易系 统投票平台的投票 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Liquidity Impact Coefficient Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model measures the liquidity impact of index adjustments on individual stocks by calculating the ratio of net fund flows to the stock's recent average daily trading volume[12][13] - **Model Construction Process**: The liquidity impact coefficient for a stock is calculated as follows: $$ impact_{i} = \sum_{k=1}^{N} \frac{\Delta weight_{k,i} \times AUM_{k}}{amt\_avg_{i,20}} $$ - \( \Delta weight_{k,i} \): Estimated weight change of stock \( i \) in index \( k \) - \( AUM_{k} \): Total assets under management of passive products tracking index \( k \) as of the end of November - \( amt\_avg_{i,20} \): Average daily trading volume of stock \( i \) over the past 20 trading days as of the end of November[12][13] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a quantitative framework to estimate short-term liquidity shocks caused by index adjustments, but it is subject to data discrepancies and assumptions, which may lead to deviations from actual results[13] --- Model Backtesting Results Liquidity Impact Coefficient Model - **Top 5 Stocks with Highest Positive Impact Coefficients**: - Zhangjiagang Bank (002839 CH): 11.55[15] - Jiangzhong Pharmaceutical (600750 CH): 11.44[15] - Tower Group (002233 CH): 11.04[15] - Jichuan Pharmaceutical (600566 CH): 10.14[15] - Zhengbang Technology (002157 CH): 9.99[15] - **Top 5 Stocks with Highest Negative Impact Coefficients**: - Shenzhen Expressway (600548 CH): -24.95[16] - Vanward Electric (002543 CH): -20.90[16] - Aviation Materials (688563 CH): -14.06[16] - Huaxi Biology (688363 CH): -10.81[16] - Ninghu Expressway (600377 CH): -10.54[16] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Net Fund Flow Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor estimates the net fund inflow or outflow for stocks due to index adjustments, based on changes in index weights and the total AUM of passive products tracking the index[9][10] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Outflow Amount: Total AUM of linked products multiplied by the stock's actual weight in the index as of the end of November - Inflow Amount: Total AUM of linked products multiplied by the estimated weight of the stock in the index post-adjustment - Weight estimation is based on free-float market capitalization and index-specific weighting rules, such as dividend yield weighting or market capitalization weighting[9][10] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor provides a transparent and systematic approach to estimate fund flows, but it is sensitive to assumptions about future index weights and AUM changes[9][10] --- Factor Backtesting Results Net Fund Flow Factor - **Top 5 Stocks with Highest Net Fund Inflows**: - Victory Precision (300476 CH): 112.61 billion CNY[10] - Dongshan Precision (002384 CH): 99.32 billion CNY[10] - Guangqi Technology (002625 CH): 77.81 billion CNY[10] - Sugon Information (603019 CH): 65.44 billion CNY[10] - Top Group (601689 CH): 53.07 billion CNY[10] - **Top 5 Stocks with Highest Net Fund Outflows**: - China Mobile (600941 CH): -40.02 billion CNY[11] - CRRC Corporation (601766 CH): -36.40 billion CNY[11] - Aluminum Corporation of China (601600 CH): -34.29 billion CNY[11] - TCL Zhonghuan (002129 CH): -30.07 billion CNY[11] - Huagong Tech (000988 CH): -27.44 billion CNY[11]

沪指12月1日上涨0.65%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有28个，涨幅居前的行业为有色金属、通信， 涨幅分别为2.85%、2.81%。跌幅居前的行业为农林牧渔、环保、房地产，跌幅分别为0.43%、0.23%、 0.06%。房地产行业位居今日跌幅榜第三。 资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流入7.75亿元，今日有11个行业主力资金净流入，电子行业主力资金 净流入规模居首，该行业今日上涨1.58%，全天净流入资金72.21亿元，其次是通信行业，日涨幅为 2.81%，净流入资金为55.59亿元。 主力资金净流出的行业有20个，电力设备行业主力资金净流出规模居首，全天净流出资金29.94亿元， 其次是计算机行业，净流出资金为23.01亿元，净流出资金较多的还有传媒、医药生物、公用事业等行 业。 房地产行业资金流出榜 （文章来源：证券时报网） 房地产行业资金流入榜 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600246 | 万通发展 | 7.82 | 17.60 | 35939.42 | | 600515 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a slight recovery in the enthusiasm of real estate companies for launching new projects, with a projected new supply of 6.69 million square meters in 30 key cities for November, representing a 16% month-on-month increase [1] - In first-tier cities, Guangzhou showed a significant increase in supply, doubling month-on-month to 610,000 square meters, while the overall supply in four first-tier cities increased by 23% [1] - The transaction volume of new homes remained stable, with a total of 8.15 million square meters sold in November across 30 monitored cities, marking a 2% month-on-month increase [2] Supply and Demand - The average opening sales rate in 30 key cities increased by 3 percentage points to 35% in November, indicating a stable market heat [7] - The overall supply-demand ratio improved from 0.6 to 0.82, with 30 cities' inventory decreasing by 1% month-on-month [9] - The inventory level across 30 cities was 21,890 million square meters, reflecting a 5% year-on-year decline [9] Transaction Performance - The total transaction area for second-hand housing in November reached 17.04 million square meters, a 14% month-on-month increase, with notable growth in first-tier and second-tier cities [11] - In first-tier cities, the transaction volume reached 4.02 million square meters, a 10% month-on-month increase, while second-tier cities saw a 13% increase [11] Land Market - The land transaction area and amount increased by 39% and 57% month-on-month, respectively, with an average premium rate showing signs of recovery [13] - The total land supply for November was 29 million square meters, a 250% increase month-on-month, indicating a ramp-up in land supply as the year-end approaches [13] Company Performance - In November, 38 real estate companies reported month-on-month sales growth, with 15 companies achieving growth rates exceeding 30% [19] - Among the top 10 real estate companies, several, including China Overseas Land & Investment and China Resources Land, saw an increase in their total sales figures [19]

转自：新华财经 新华财经上海12月1日电（谈瑞）2025年接近年末，上海房地产市场在调整中呈现出结构性分化特征。 中指研究院最新发布的数据显示，1-11月上海新房市场供需虽出现下滑态势，但核心区域优质楼盘持续 热销，头部房企凭借稳健布局领跑销售榜单，土地市场运行平稳。一系列市场信号显示，在宽松政策基 调支撑下，上海房地产市场正逐步修复信心，向稳发展。 销售业绩方面，2025年1-11月，上海房地产销售业绩TOP30企业合计销售额达4392.9亿元，销售面积合 计621.2万平方米，市场集中度保持较高水平。其中，销售额突破150亿元的房企有10家，华润置地、保 利发展、招商蛇口成为年度销售金额榜的"三驾马车"，分别以417.9亿元、395.8亿元和387.8亿元的成绩 占据前三名。销售面积榜单上，同样是这三家企业领跑，招商蛇口以65.0万平方米的销售面积位居首 位，保利发展和华润置地分别以57.1万平方米和45.3万平方米紧随其后，显示出头部房企在上海市场的 深厚积淀与强劲竞争力。 权益销售数据更能反映房企的真实经营实力。2025年1-11月，上海房地产权益销售业绩TOP30企业合计 销售2954.6亿元，权益 ...