Core Viewpoint - Poly Developments has experienced a decline in stock price and significant changes in financial performance, indicating potential challenges in the real estate sector [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On January 14, Poly Developments' stock fell by 2.01%, trading at 6.34 CNY per share with a total transaction volume of 1.022 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 1.33% [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock price has increased by 3.93%, but it has decreased by 0.78% over the last five trading days, increased by 1.12% over the last 20 days, and decreased by 17.77% over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Poly Developments reported a revenue of 173.722 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 4.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.929 billion CNY, down 75.31% year-on-year [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the A-share listing amount to 64.976 billion CNY, with 12.269 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 247,700, a rise of 13.96%, while the average number of circulating shares per person decreased by 12.25% to 48,319 shares [2]. - Major shareholders include China Securities Finance Corporation, holding 357 million shares, and Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which reduced its holdings by 333 million shares [3].

Group 1 - In the top 20 cities, 16 are core first and second-tier cities, with land transfer fees exceeding 140 billion yuan in Beijing, Hangzhou, and Shanghai, and Hangzhou's fees surpassing the total for 2024 in the first seven months [1] - The sales performance of the top 100 real estate companies is under pressure, with total sales expected to decline by 18.4% year-on-year to approximately 25,209 billion yuan in 2025, while the number of companies exceeding 10 billion yuan in sales has decreased [2][4] - The top 100 companies' land acquisition total is projected to reach 9,640 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [2][7] Group 2 - The sales ranking of real estate companies is undergoing a reshuffle, with the top 10 companies accounting for 49.8% of total sales, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from 2024 [4] - Poly Developments leads the sales ranking with 253 billion yuan, followed closely by Greentown China, China Overseas Property, and China Resources Land, all exceeding 200 billion yuan in sales [4][5] - The land acquisition strategies of real estate companies remain cautious, with a focus on core cities, and the top 20 cities account for 52% of national land transfer fees, indicating a shift towards more stable markets [8][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][6] Core Insights - The company has adjusted its headquarters organizational structure to enhance management efficiency and effectiveness amid declining sales [6][9] - The company remains the industry leader in sales, with a strong focus on optimizing land reserves and maintaining open financing channels, resulting in a significant cost advantage [6][9] - Profit forecasts for the company are maintained, with expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 4.26 billion, 5.24 billion, and 6.41 billion respectively, translating to EPS of 0.36, 0.44, and 0.54 [6][10] Sales Performance - In December 2025, the company achieved a signed sales amount of 12.16 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 18.9%, with a total annual sales amount of 253.03 billion, down 21.7% [7] - The company maintained its leading position in sales, with an average sales price of 20,483 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.9% [7] Land Acquisition - The company acquired 10 plots of land in major cities such as Shanghai and Guangzhou in December 2025, with a monthly acquisition amount of 11.93 billion, up 18.4% year-on-year [8] - The total land acquisition amount for 2025 reached 77.13 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.0%, with a land acquisition area of 4.572 million square meters, up 39.2% [8] Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 346.83 billion, with a decline expected in subsequent years, reaching 269.09 billion in 2025 and 225.90 billion in 2026 [10][14] - The gross profit margin is expected to decrease from 16.0% in 2023 to 13.1% in 2025, with a slight recovery to 14.1% in 2026 [14] - The net profit margin is projected to improve from 1.6% in 2024 to 2.3% in 2026 [14]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.8%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 4.4%, and the ChiNext Index went up by 3.9% this week [1] - The real estate sector (Shenwan) saw a rise of 5.1% [1] - The top five stocks by percentage increase were Chengjian Development (+34.5%), Yingxin Development (+22.0%), Shangshi Development (+20.8%), *ST Rongkong (+19.7%), and *ST Yangguang (+16.0%) [1] - The bottom five stocks by percentage decrease included Hainan Airport (-7.9%), Guangming Real Estate (-7.2%), Hezhan Energy (-5.5%), Shoukai Shares (-5.0%), and China Wuyi (-2.0%) [1] Real Estate Data Tracking - New homes: In the week of January 3-9, 42 key cities recorded a total transaction of 1.37 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 46.7% [1] - For January up to the week of January 9, new home transactions totaled 1.55 million square meters, down 30.1% month-on-month and 46.6% year-on-year [1] - Second-hand homes: In the week of January 3-9, 21 key cities saw a total transaction of 2.06 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 25.4% [1] - For January up to the week of January 9, second-hand home transactions totaled 2.14 million square meters, down 16.1% month-on-month and 23.9% year-on-year [1] Industry News - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, held a meeting to implement a package of fiscal and financial policies to boost domestic demand, including expanding the scope of public rental housing [2] - The central bank emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the integration of incremental and stock policy effects [2] - Local policies include Shanghai's efforts to improve fair competition review mechanisms and Henan's support for local governments to issue special bonds for purchasing existing homes for affordable housing [2] - In Shenyang, the down payment for housing has been reduced to 15% until the end of 2026, while Chengdu extended its housing mutual assistance policy until the end of 2026 [2] Company Announcements - In December 2025, the sales figures for major real estate companies were as follows: Poly Development at 12.16 billion yuan (-18.9%), China Merchants Shekou at 25.84 billion yuan (-14.5%), and New Town Holdings at 1.35 billion yuan (-57.8%) [2] - China Overseas Development issued bonds with a 3-year term at an interest rate of 1.60%-2.60% and a 5-year term at 1.80%-2.80% [2] Personnel Changes - Vanke A's Yu Liang retired due to age, resigning from his positions as director and executive vice president [3] Investment Analysis - The real estate sector remains a crucial asset allocation and investment direction for Chinese households, with stable housing prices being significant for economic circulation [3] - The 20th Central Committee's emphasis on promoting high-quality development in real estate suggests potential policy support [3] - High-quality residential properties may see a development wave due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure [3] - The Hong Kong private residential market sentiment is gradually recovering, indicating a potential revaluation for Hong Kong developers [3] - The sector is rated "positive," with recommended companies including China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, New Town Holdings, and others [3]

Group 1 - As of January 12, 2026, 13 out of 18 real estate companies reported month-on-month sales growth for December 2025, indicating a positive trend in the market [1][2] - Poly Developments led the sales with 2530.3 billion yuan in 2025, despite a 21.67% year-on-year decline, maintaining its position as the top seller [4] - China Overseas Land & Investment and China Resources Land followed closely, with sales of 2512.32 billion yuan and 2336 billion yuan respectively, both part of the billion-yuan sales club [4] Group 2 - China Overseas achieved significant sales growth, with a monthly sales figure of 398.32 billion yuan in December 2025, supported by strong project performance in Shanghai [2][3] - The sales growth rates for various companies in December 2025 were notable, with Sunac China experiencing a 163.39% increase due to a low base in November [3] - The overall sales performance of real estate companies at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026 is expected to stabilize the market and improve buyer confidence [3] Group 3 - The second-tier real estate companies (sales between 500 billion and 1 trillion yuan) averaged 646.4 billion yuan in sales, while the third-tier (300 billion to 500 billion yuan) averaged 381.3 billion yuan [5] - Despite facing operational challenges, companies like Sunac China and Country Garden remain in the top 100, with sales of 368.4 billion yuan and 330 billion yuan respectively [5] - Debt restructuring efforts by these companies have shown progress, with Sunac completing a significant overseas debt restructuring, reducing overall repayment pressure [5] Group 4 - Leading companies like China Overseas and Poly Developments have focused their land acquisition strategies on first- and second-tier cities, with significant investments in Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Beijing [6][7] - Poly Developments has adjusted its land acquisition strategy, increasing its investment in Shanghai while reducing its focus on Beijing, indicating a shift in market strategy [7] - The emphasis on land reserves in key urban areas is seen as a strategy to enhance operational resilience and capitalize on market demand [6][7]

Core Insights - The real estate market in China shows signs of recovery as 13 out of 18 reported companies achieved month-on-month sales growth in December 2025, with notable performances from companies like China Overseas Land & Investment and China Resources Land [1][2][3] Group 1: Sales Performance - 72.22% of the 18 real estate companies reported month-on-month sales growth as of January 12, 2026, with five companies achieving record monthly sales [1] - China Resources Land led with a monthly sales figure of 410 billion yuan, followed by China Overseas at 398.32 billion yuan and China Merchants Shekou at 258.44 billion yuan [2] - China Overseas achieved a three-month consecutive sales increase, with December sales reaching 398.32 billion yuan, supported by various high-end and affordable housing projects [2][3] Group 2: Yearly Sales Data - Poly Developments topped the 2025 sales chart with 2530.3 billion yuan, despite a 21.67% decline from 2024, maintaining a lead over China Overseas [4] - Other companies in the billion-yuan sales club include China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, and Greentown China, with sales figures of 2336 billion yuan, 1960.09 billion yuan, and 1534 billion yuan respectively [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recovery in sales is expected to stabilize market confidence and alleviate buyer hesitation, contributing to a positive growth outlook for the real estate sector [3] - Companies like Sunac China and Country Garden, despite facing operational challenges, remain in the top sales rankings, with 368.4 billion yuan and 330 billion yuan in sales respectively [5] Group 4: Land Acquisition Strategies - Leading companies are focusing on land acquisition in first and second-tier cities, with China Overseas reporting 60.6% of its sales from major cities [6][7] - Poly Developments has shifted its land acquisition strategy, increasing investments in Shanghai while reducing its presence in Beijing, with significant spending in Guangzhou [6][7]

Core Insights - The real estate market in China shows signs of recovery as 13 out of 18 reported companies achieved month-on-month sales growth in December 2025, with notable performances from companies like China Overseas Land & Investment and China Resources Land [1][3][4] - Poly Developments maintained its leading position in annual sales for 2025, despite a year-on-year decline, with a total sales figure of 2530.3 billion yuan, outperforming China Overseas Land by 17.98 billion yuan [1][6] - The trend of increasing sales among major real estate firms is expected to stabilize market confidence and alleviate buyer concerns, contributing to a positive outlook for the industry [4][6] Sales Performance - In December 2025, China Resources Land led with sales of 410 billion yuan, followed by China Overseas Land at 398.32 billion yuan and China Merchants Shekou at 258.44 billion yuan [3] - The sales growth rates for December 2025 were significant, with Sunac China experiencing a 163.39% increase due to a low base in November, while other firms like China Overseas Land and China Resources Land also reported substantial growth rates of 79.14% and 78.26% respectively [4] Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape among top real estate firms has stabilized, with Poly Developments focusing heavily on the Guangzhou market, investing 648.24 billion yuan from 2023 to 2025, compared to 265.02 billion yuan in Beijing and 359.27 billion yuan in Shanghai [1][9] - The second-tier firms (500 billion to 1 trillion yuan) averaged sales of 646.4 billion yuan, while third-tier firms (300 billion to 500 billion yuan) averaged 381.3 billion yuan, indicating a diverse recovery across different company sizes [7] Strategic Adjustments - Major firms are adjusting their land acquisition strategies, with a focus on first and second-tier cities. For instance, China Overseas Land's sales in major cities accounted for 60.6% of its total sales, while Poly Developments has also shifted its focus towards Shanghai, increasing its land acquisition there significantly [8][9] - The overall trend indicates that while some firms are facing challenges, others are leveraging their strong market positions and operational capabilities to navigate the current landscape effectively [6][7]

Core Insights - The real estate market in China is showing signs of recovery as 13 out of 18 reported companies achieved month-on-month sales growth in December 2025, with notable performances from companies like China Overseas Land & Investment and China Resources Land [1][3][4] - Poly Developments maintained its leading position in 2025 with a total sales figure of 2530.3 billion yuan, despite a year-on-year decline of 21.67% compared to 2024 [6] - The trend of increasing sales is expected to stabilize market confidence and alleviate buyer concerns, contributing to a positive outlook for the industry [4][7] Company Performance - Poly Developments led the sales with 2530.3 billion yuan, followed by China Overseas at 2512.32 billion yuan, and China Resources Land at 2336 billion yuan [6][7] - In December 2025, China Resources Land achieved a sales figure of 410 billion yuan, while China Overseas reached 398.32 billion yuan, and China Merchants Shekou reported 258.44 billion yuan [3][4] - Companies like Sunac China and Country Garden, despite facing operational challenges, remained in the top ranks with sales of 368.4 billion yuan and 330 billion yuan respectively [7] Market Trends - The recovery in sales is uneven across different tiers of companies, with Sunac China showing a significant month-on-month increase of 163.39% in December due to a low base in November [4] - The second-tier companies (sales between 500 billion to 1000 billion yuan) averaged 646.4 billion yuan, while the third-tier (300 billion to 500 billion yuan) averaged 381.3 billion yuan [7] - The focus on land acquisition in first and second-tier cities is evident, with companies like China Overseas and Poly Developments significantly increasing their investments in these areas [8][9] Strategic Adjustments - Poly Developments has shifted its land acquisition strategy, increasing its focus on Shanghai while reducing investments in Beijing, with land payments in Shanghai surpassing those in Beijing in recent years [9] - The overall strategy of major companies emphasizes deepening land reserves in key urban areas, which is crucial for sustaining sales performance [8][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that real estate is a crucial asset allocation and investment direction for Chinese households, and stabilizing housing prices is significant for facilitating economic circulation. The policy environment is expected to strengthen further, promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector. The report suggests that high-quality residential properties may experience a development wave due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure [5][49]. - The report highlights that multiple favorable factors are driving a gradual recovery in the sentiment of the Hong Kong private residential market, indicating that Hong Kong developers may face a new round of value reassessment [5]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.8%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.4%, the ChiNext Index by 3.9%, and the CSI 300 by 2.8%. The real estate sector (Shenwan) increased by 5.1% during the week [5][8]. - The top five stocks in terms of growth were Chengjian Development (+34.5%), Yingxin Development (+22.0%), Shangshi Development (+20.8%), *ST Rong Control (+19.7%), and *ST Sunshine (+16.0%) [5][8]. Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - In the week of January 3-9, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 1.37 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 46.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 41.3% [13]. - For January up to the week of January 9, new housing transactions totaled 1.55 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 30.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 46.6% [19]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the week of January 3-9, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 2.06 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 25.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 13.2% [33]. - For January up to the week of January 9, second-hand housing transactions totaled 2.14 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 16.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 23.9% [37]. Industry News - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, held a meeting to implement a package of policies to promote domestic demand, including expanding the scope of public rental housing guarantees [49]. - The People's Bank of China emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the integration of incremental and stock policies to enhance financial services for the real economy [49]. - Local policies include the extension of the down payment ratio in Shenyang to 15% until the end of 2026 and the increase of the public loan limit from 60% to 80% [49].

Core Viewpoint - The competitive landscape among leading real estate companies is stabilizing, with Poly Developments maintaining its position as the industry leader in sales for 2025, achieving a sales figure of 2530.3 billion yuan, despite a year-on-year decline of 21.67% from 2024 [1][6]. Sales Performance - Among the 18 real estate companies that disclosed their December 2025 sales data, 13 companies reported month-on-month growth, with China Overseas Development and China Resources Land achieving significant sales figures of 398.32 billion yuan and 410 billion yuan, respectively [4][5]. - Poly Developments led the sales with 121.64 billion yuan in December, while China Overseas and China Resources followed closely with 398.32 billion yuan and 410 billion yuan [4][6]. Market Trends - The sales growth in December 2025 indicates a positive trend for the real estate market, with companies like Sunac China and China Resources Land showing remarkable month-on-month increases of 163.39% and 78.26%, respectively [5][6]. - The overall sales performance of major companies suggests a solid foundation for the real estate market's stability and growth expectations in 2026 [5]. Land Acquisition Strategies - Poly Developments has focused heavily on the Guangzhou market, with land acquisition payments reaching 648.24 billion yuan from 2023 to 2025, significantly higher than in Beijing and Shanghai [1][10]. - China Overseas Development has also concentrated its land acquisition efforts in first-tier cities, with 60.6% of its sales coming from major cities like Hong Kong and the four first-tier cities [9]. Company Resilience - Despite facing challenges, companies with over 100 billion yuan in sales, such as Poly Developments and China Overseas, have demonstrated strong operational resilience and effective governance, allowing them to navigate market fluctuations [6][7]. - The restructuring of debts for companies like Sunac China and Country Garden has shown progress, indicating a potential for recovery and stability in the sector [8].