Group 1 - The first land promotion conference in Nanjing for 2026 was held on January 29, focusing on key areas such as Digital City and New Binjiang, and released an urban renewal opportunity list for Yuhuatai District [1][3] - The event attracted 15 major real estate companies, including China Resources Land and Poly Developments, as well as 10 urban renewal operators, showing strong interest in the promoted land resources and urban renewal list [3] - The promoted land resources include various types of plots, such as "small but beautiful" plots in the Yuhua core area, low-density residential land along the Qinhuai River, and high-rise residential land near schools, catering to diverse housing needs [3] Group 2 - Yuhuatai District has gathered 381 AI companies and 50,000 AI talents, aiming to create an AI and software integration zone with a target of attracting 1,000 AI companies and 100,000 AI talents, striving for a core output value of 100 billion [5] - During the discussion, participating companies engaged in in-depth exchanges regarding land indicators, area construction, cooperation models, and approval services, indicating a favorable residential supply-demand relationship in areas like Yuhua core, marking a good investment window for land [5] - Officials responded to companies' concerns, committing to enhance service guarantees and improve the "Yuhua speed" of project approvals [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on China Property Industry Industry Overview - The China property industry has shown an 11% year-to-date performance, outperforming the MSCI China index which is at 7% [1] - The current sentiment-driven rally is viewed as likely unsustainable due to a fragile housing market and high sector valuations [1] Core Insights - The rally is attributed to improved investor sentiment from positive policy news and a recent uptick in housing sales, influenced by a later Chinese New Year and mild policy easing [9] - However, there are multiple near-term headwinds anticipated, including: - Over-optimism regarding the physical market recovery [3] - Potential earnings misses for key developers in 2025, with profit warnings expected from Greentown, Longfor, and Vanke [4] - A decline in contracted sales in Q1 due to reduced saleable resources and a high base effect [4] - High valuations across the sector [4] Company-Specific Insights - Companies expected to face challenges include: - **Greentown**, **Jinmao**, **Longfor**, and **Vanke A/H** due to potential earnings misses and high valuations [4] - In contrast, companies favored for their fundamentals include: - **CR Land** and **Seazen A/H**, which are robust mall operators benefiting from consumption-boosting initiatives [5] - **C&D**, recognized as residential market consolidators with optimized landbanks supporting margins and positive earnings growth [5] Market Outlook - A potential sector pullback is anticipated as the results season approaches, with cautious guidance expected from developers regarding property sales, development margins, and earnings recovery [9] - The likelihood of further policy stimulus is seen as diminishing, especially before the Chinese New Year, given the recent improvement in home sales volume in tier 1 cities [9] - Analysts maintain a cautious outlook, predicting continued home price declines in top-tier cities over the next two years [9] Stock Ratings and Price Targets - The report includes a summary of stock ratings and price targets for various companies in the sector: - **C&D International** (OW, PT: HKD 20.62) - **CR Land** (OW, PT: HKD 39.20) - **Seazen A** (OW, PT: RMB 19.70) - **Greentown** (UW, PT: HKD 7.86) - **Vanke A** (UW, PT: RMB 2.70) [6] Additional Considerations - The report emphasizes the importance of considering the broader market context and potential conflicts of interest in investment decisions [7][8] - Analysts express skepticism about the sustainability of fund flows into the sector, given the bearish outlook for the China housing market [9] This summary encapsulates the key insights and outlook for the China property industry as discussed in the conference call, highlighting both risks and opportunities within the sector.

Summary of Conference Call on Real Estate Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the real estate industry in China, particularly the impact of policies and market dynamics on the sector's performance and future outlook [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - The issuance of real estate REITs by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is expected to significantly change the real estate industry by improving liquidity, reducing financing costs (expected at 3.6%), and re-evaluating land assets [1][5]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development in real estate, requiring state-owned enterprises to avoid large-scale losses and high debt levels, with real estate investment growth expected to align with GDP growth (projected at least 4.5%) [1][6][7]. - The secondary market is anticipated to focus on fundamentals in March and April, with a potential stabilization in the second half of the year, particularly for leading companies and core cities [1][8]. - Despite a general pessimism in the real estate sector, the disclosure of risk performance has been thorough, leading to a valuation recovery and an upward trend in the overall market index [1][9]. Important but Overlooked Content - The real estate sector's stock performance has been in line with expectations, with stock prices typically leading transaction volumes, which in turn precede property prices [3]. - The property sector's dividend and special dividend rates remain strong, with an expected rise in CPI to around 1.5%, enhancing price stability and service trade elasticity for property companies [3][11]. - Companies benefiting from supply-side reforms and high-quality development, such as China Resources, Poly, and China Overseas, are highlighted as key investment opportunities [10]. - The potential for companies like Beike and Wo Ai Wo Jia to show resilience in the second quarter is noted, especially if policy expectations are realized [12]. - The focus on internal renovations rather than just external facade improvements is emphasized as a more certain path for enhancing living experiences and driving industry growth [14]. Conclusion - The real estate industry is at a pivotal moment, with policy changes and market dynamics creating both challenges and opportunities. Investors are encouraged to focus on companies that align with high-quality development goals and those that can leverage the benefits of REITs to improve their financial positions.

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the real estate industry Core Insights - The real estate industry in China is transitioning towards high-quality development, with delivery being a key indicator of competitiveness and an essential aspect of operations [3] - In 2025, the top three companies in terms of delivery volume are Country Garden with 170,000 units, China Overseas with 133,200 units, and Poly Developments with 130,000 units [4][9] - The total delivery volume for the top 10 companies in 2025 is projected to be 996,800 units, a decrease of 36% compared to 2024 [9] - The industry is moving away from high turnover models, with delivery capability becoming a core metric for companies to navigate through cycles [10] - Companies are focusing on enhancing the quality of delivery, with an emphasis on customer experience and service [10][20] Delivery Scale - In 2025, five companies are expected to deliver over 100,000 units, and ten companies over 50,000 units, with 34 companies delivering more than 10,000 units [9] - The report highlights that the delivery scale is expected to continue declining due to the completion of delivery tasks and a decrease in sales volume [9] Notable Delivery Projects - The report lists several exemplary delivery projects, including "Times City" by China Resources and Huafa, and "Wenzhou Tianyuexi" by Poly Developments and China Merchants Shekou [7] - Projects like "D10 Tianyuan" by New Hope Real Estate achieved early delivery, showcasing effective execution and customer service [11] - The report emphasizes the importance of community facilities and overall living experience in enhancing customer satisfaction and reducing post-delivery disputes [19] Product Implementation and Service Optimization - The report indicates that delivery capability is becoming a critical link connecting product design innovation, green construction standards, and comprehensive service experiences [16] - Companies are focusing on upgrading their service offerings throughout the entire lifecycle of the product, moving from timely delivery to quality and value delivery [16] Community and Service Enhancements - Community infrastructure is highlighted as a key aspect of product delivery, enhancing customer belonging and satisfaction [19] - The report notes that personalized services and immersive experiences are crucial for building brand trust and improving customer satisfaction [20]

Group 1 - In 2025, Shenyang implemented precise policies to better meet residents' rigid and improved housing demands, effectively boosting buyer confidence and promoting property transactions [1] - The land market in Shenyang saw a resurgence of premium land grabbing, with many high-quality projects entering the market, making successful "first openings" a norm [1] - The top three real estate companies in Shenyang by sales volume in 2025 were Aoyuan, Yirun, and Daobuduan, with sales figures of 2,490 million m², 1,351 million m², and 1,300 million m² respectively [2] Group 2 - The top three companies in terms of registered residential area in Shenyang were China Overseas, China Resources Land, and Longfor, with China Overseas holding the title of "triple crown" in area, amount, and number of units [4] - The leading residential projects by registered area included China Resources Land's Zhonghuanyuefu, China Overseas's Tianduan, and Songming Xinghewan, indicating a shift from demand for basic housing to improved housing products [7] - In the Heping District, the top three projects by registered area were China Overseas's Lingguan No. 1, Yujing New World, and Runqi Hepingli, showcasing strong performance in the area [13] Group 3 - In the Hunnan District, the top three projects by registered area were China Overseas's Tianduan, Shenyang Xinghewan, and China Overseas's Shengjing Juzhang, with multiple new projects entering the market [19] - The top three projects in the Tiexi District were Runxi Fu, Runyue Bay, and Tianyi Jingcheng's Milan Phase II, indicating a vibrant market with new projects on the horizon [29] - The top three projects in the Yuhong District were Hongfa Huanhua Creek, Xuefu Meidi City, and Poly Heguang Yuhai, with several new projects expected to enter the market soon [32]

其中，保利发展新组建"不动产运营中心"，整合了原运营与产品管理职能；中建八局对其投资与运营类 业务进行系统性重构；中国武夷则新增了安全质量部与成本管控部。业内人士分析指出，3家企业的调 整路径，核心均指向在行业承压背景下，通过内部革新实现降本增效与挖掘新增长点的迫切需求。 2025年初，保利发展2024年度业绩说明会上，公司董事长刘平透露新阶段发展目标，计划未来2—3年推 进企业自我重塑，通过推动不动产投资开发全面做优、不动产经营加速做大、不动产综合服务力争做 强，加快构筑新的核心竞争力，而此次公司架构调整，正是该战略落地的表现。 2026年伊始，房企组织架构调整动作频频。据北京商报记者不完全统计，仅1月内，中建八局、保利发 展、中国武夷3家房企已相继推进组织优化，核心方向聚焦总部集权与风险管控强化，折射出行业深度 调整期对稳健经营的共同诉求。事实上，这一轮调整在2025年底已有端倪。去年12月，碧桂园、绿城中 国、建发集团等超过10家重点房企也已启动架构与人事的协同调整，显示出行业整体步入以组织变革提 质增效的关键阶段。 业绩承压下的主动调整 据北京商报记者不完全统计，保利发展、中建八局、中国武夷等房企在2 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate sector as "Overweight" [4] Core Insights - The industry is expected to stabilize as supply decreases and quality improves, with new and old drivers working together to push the market towards a bottoming out [2] - Key cities are anticipated to find a balance in sales by 2026, although long-tail cities will continue to drag down overall performance, albeit at a reduced rate [2] Summary by Sections 2025 Industry Review - The industry faced a significant downturn in sales and investment, with actual sales area data falling below previous lower predictions due to overly optimistic expectations for third and fourth-tier cities [8] - The decline in new construction and investment was more pronounced than expected, with new construction area growth at -20.4% and completion area growth at -18.1% [10][24] 2026 Industry Outlook - The focus will be on high-quality development, with key cities expected to stabilize sales. The central economic work conference emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [7][9] - Investment growth is projected to be slow, with construction area growth expected between -5.8% and -10.2%, and corresponding investment growth between -4.0% and -12.5% [10][11] - The report predicts that the sales amount for 2026 could vary under optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic scenarios, with forecasts of 2.6%, -4.9%, and -11.4% respectively [10] Policy Focus - The main pressures on the industry will stem from investment growth challenges, with expectations for interest rate cuts and asset recovery policies to support the sector [10][11] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the implementation of policies related to interest rate reductions, asset recovery, and urban renewal [10][11] Sales and Investment Predictions - The report provides a detailed forecast for 2026, indicating that the total sales area is expected to stabilize between 7-8 billion square meters, driven by improving demand and urban renewal initiatives [44][50] - The sales amount and land acquisition trends are expected to reflect a continued focus on quality and strategic development in key urban areas [50][55]

| [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 涂力磊(分析师) | 021-23185710 | tulilei@gtht.com | S0880525040101 | | 谢皓宇(分析师) | 010-83939826 | xiehaoyu@gtht.com | S0880518010002 | | 谢盐(分析师) | 021-23185696 | xieyan@gtht.com | S0880525040098 | 本报告导读： 1 月 27 日，公司审议通过了《关于开展商业不动产 REITs 申报发行工作及相关授权 事项的议案》，这将进一步构筑公司不动产经营能力，增强可持续发展能力。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 维持"增持"评级。1 月 27 日，公司审议通过了《关于开展商业不 动产 REITs 申报发行工作及相关授权事项的议案》。我们认为，这 将进一步构筑公司不动产经营能力，优化资本结构，增强可持续发 展能力。我们预计 25 年 EPS 为 0.09 元和 BPS 为 16.59 元，参考 PB 估 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][8]. Core Insights - On January 27, the company approved the proposal to initiate the issuance of commercial real estate REITs, which is expected to enhance its real estate operational capabilities and optimize its capital structure for sustainable development [2][3]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.09 yuan, with a book value per share (BPS) of 16.59 yuan. The target price is set at 9.95 yuan, based on a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.6 [3]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 346.894 billion yuan, with a decrease to 311.666 billion yuan in 2024, and a slight decline to 308.704 billion yuan in 2025, followed by a recovery to 338.352 billion yuan in 2027 [6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to drop significantly from 12.067 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.092 billion yuan in 2025, before increasing to 3.530 billion yuan in 2027 [6]. - The net asset return rate (ROE) is forecasted to decline to 0.5% in 2025, with a gradual recovery to 1.7% by 2027 [6][15]. REITs Plan - The selected assets for the REITs include the Guangzhou Poly Center and the Foshan Poly Water City projects, both held by the company's wholly-owned subsidiaries [4]. - The issuance process involves submitting applications to the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the China Securities Regulatory Commission, with the company planning to subscribe to at least 20% of the REITs [4][5]. Market Data - The stock has a 52-week price range of 6.09 to 9.20 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 81.399 billion yuan [9]. - The company has a net asset value per share of 16.49 yuan, resulting in a current price-to-book ratio of 0.4 [10]. Financial Ratios - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is 74.52, indicating a significant increase from 16.28 in 2024 [15]. - The company’s net debt ratio stands at 64.83%, reflecting its leverage position [10]. Conclusion - The report indicates a strategic move towards enhancing the company's operational capabilities through innovative financing tools, which is expected to improve asset management and support sustainable growth [5].

Market Performance - The real estate development sector increased by 2.89% compared to the previous trading day, with Dayuecheng leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4157.98, up 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14300.08, down 0.3% [1] Top Gainers in Real Estate Sector - Dayuecheng (000031) closed at 3.73, up 10.03% with a trading volume of 909,000 shares and a transaction value of 329 million [1] - Sanxiang Impression (000863) closed at 6.70, up 10.02% with a trading volume of 570,600 shares and a transaction value of 374 million [1] - Deep Shenzhen A (000029) closed at 21.97, up 10.02% with a trading volume of 85,700 shares and a transaction value of 183 million [1] - Chengdu Investment Holdings (600649) closed at 5.61, up 10.00% with a trading volume of 1,889,900 shares and a transaction value of 1.032 billion [1] - New Town Holdings (601155) closed at 17.85, up 9.98% with a trading volume of 464,600 shares and a transaction value of 812 million [1] Top Losers in Real Estate Sector - Yuehongyuan A (000573) closed at 4.44, down 8.45% with a trading volume of 1,597,200 shares and a transaction value of 719 million [2] - Hefei Urban Construction (002208) closed at 13.97, down 5.10% with a trading volume of 622,900 shares and a transaction value of 886 million [2] - Shunfa Hengneng (000631) closed at 4.09, down 4.66% with a trading volume of 718,800 shares and a transaction value of 302 million [2] Capital Flow in Real Estate Sector - The real estate development sector saw a net inflow of 1.225 billion in main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 598 million [2] - Main funds showed significant inflows in major companies such as Vanke A (000002) with a net inflow of 475 million, accounting for 15.58% [3] - Poly Development (600048) had a net inflow of 334 million, representing 10.82% of the total [3]