Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The industry is experiencing a recovery in demand, with Q2 performance showing a quarter-on-quarter increase [1] - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 14.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.07%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 727 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.72% [4] - Q2 2025 revenue reached 7.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.44% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.25% [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's overall gross margin for H1 2025 was 16.4%, a decrease of 0.9% year-on-year [5] - Revenue from various segments in H1 2025 included special chemicals (2.615 billion yuan), pesticides (2.568 billion yuan), fertilizers (1.924 billion yuan), and organic silicon (1.369 billion yuan) [5] - Q2 2025 non-net profit was 437 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 91.06%, primarily due to high phosphate rock prices and price increases in glyphosate products [5] Market Position and Product Analysis - Glyphosate's advantages are highlighted, with the market demand expected to grow due to limited new production capacity and increasing planting areas of transgenic crops [5] - The company has a designed production capacity of 230,000 tons/year for glyphosate, ranking first in the domestic market [5] - Phosphate rock prices remain high, with the company holding significant phosphate reserves and plans to acquire a 50% stake in Qiaogou Mining, increasing reserves to 58 million tons [6] New Projects and R&D - The company is accelerating the implementation of new projects in the fields of new energy and electronic chemicals, with R&D investment in H1 2025 amounting to 535 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.21% [8] - Key projects include the production of lithium phosphate and high-purity electronic chemicals, which are progressing steadily [8] Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.825 billion yuan, 2.078 billion yuan, and 2.366 billion yuan for the years 2025-2027, corresponding to P/E ratios of 16, 14, and 13 times respectively [9]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Hubei Xingfa Chemical Group Co., Ltd., is holding a half-year online performance briefing for 2025 to provide investors with a comprehensive understanding of its operating results for the first half of the year [3][4]. Group 1: Meeting Details - The online performance briefing is scheduled for September 15, 2025, from 10:00 to 11:30 [2][4]. - The meeting will be conducted via the Shanghai Stock Exchange's "SSE Roadshow Center" platform, featuring video live streaming and interactive Q&A [3][4]. - Investors can submit questions in advance from September 8 to September 12, 2025, to enhance communication efficiency [5]. Group 2: Company Representatives - Key attendees at the briefing will include Chairman Li Guozhang, Independent Director Cui Daqiao, Vice General Manager and Financial Officer Wang Chen, and Board Secretary Bao Biying [4]. Group 3: Investor Participation - Investors can participate in the online meeting by logging into the SSE Roadshow Center during the scheduled time [5]. - After the meeting, investors can access the main content and outcomes of the briefing on the SSE Roadshow Center [5].

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 9月2日晚间，兴发集团发布公告称，公司将于2025年9月15日10：00-11：30召开2025年 半年度网上业绩说明会。 ...

转债代码：110089 转债简称：兴发转债 证券代码：600141 证券简称：兴发集团 公告编号：临2025-045 湖北兴发化工集团股份有限公司 关于召开 2025 年半年度网上业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： ●会议内容： "兴发集团2025 年半年度网上业绩说明会" ●会议时间：2025 年 9 月15 日10:00-11:30 ●会议形式：上证路演中心视频直播和网络互动 ●会议地点：上证路演中心（http://roadshow.sseinfo.com） 董事长：李国璋 独立董事：崔大桥 ●投资者可于 2025 年 9 月 8 日至 2025 年 9 月 12 日 16:00 前登录上证路 演 中 心 网 站 首 页 ， 点 击 " 提 问 预 征 集 " 栏 目 或 通 过 公 司 邮 箱 （dmb@xingfagroup.com）进行提问。公司将于 2025 年半年度网上业绩说明会 （以下简称"业绩说明会"）上在信息披露允许的范围内对投资者普遍关注的 问题进行回答 ...

Core Insights - As of August 31, the number of shareholders for Xingfa Group decreased to 49,543, a reduction of 3,982 shareholders, representing a decline of 7.44% compared to the previous period [2] - The closing price of Xingfa Group on the reporting date was 27.78 yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.18%, with a cumulative increase of 7.55% since the concentration of shares began [2] - The latest margin trading data shows that as of August 29, the total margin balance for the stock was 628 million yuan, with a financing balance of 622 million yuan, indicating a decrease of 123 million yuan or 16.45% since the concentration of shares began [2] - In the first half of the year, the company reported total operating revenue of 14.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.07%, while net profit was 727 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.72%, with basic earnings per share at 0.6600 yuan and a weighted average return on equity of 3.44% [2] - Over the past month, nine institutions have issued buy ratings for the stock, with Huachuang Securities setting the highest target price at 34.05 yuan as of August 29 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Since March 2025, glyphosate prices have been steadily rising, with a significant acceleration in the upward trend since May, reaching approximately 27,300 yuan/ton by the end of August, a 24% increase from the year's low [1][2] Price Trends - Glyphosate prices have been rebounding since March, primarily due to a "de-involution" meeting held on March 13 and the CAC Agricultural Chemicals Expo starting on March 17, leading to coordinated production cuts among manufacturers [2] - The price increase has been further supported by improved demand, particularly from South America, with China's exports of non-halogenated organic phosphorus derivatives reaching 391,000 tons in the first seven months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12% [2] Industry Profitability - The profitability of glyphosate companies has significantly improved, with the price reaching 27,300 yuan/ton as of August 29, resulting in a price difference of approximately 13,600 yuan/ton for the glycine method, up from about 9,000 yuan/ton in March [3] Future Price Outlook - Glyphosate prices are expected to rise to 30,000 yuan/ton in Q4 2025, driven by high demand as the North American peak season begins in October and limited new supply due to construction delays [4] Recommended Stocks - Companies that are expected to benefit from the price elasticity of glyphosate include Xingfa Group (600141.SH), Jiangshan Chemical (600389.SH), Xin'an Chemical (600596.SH), Yangnong Chemical (600486.SH), and Guangxin Co., Ltd. (603599.SH) [5]

Group 1 - Black phosphorus is an excellent layered material with significant application potential in battery materials, flame retardants, catalysis, medicine, and electronics [1] - The theoretical capacity of black phosphorus reaches 2596 mAh/g, which is much higher than that of graphite and other carbon-based materials, indicating a strong potential for enhancing battery energy density [2] - Black phosphorus has a high lithium intercalation potential and lithium diffusion coefficient, which reduces the risk of lithium dendrite formation and effectively improves fast charging safety [2] Group 2 - The industrialization process for black phosphorus preparation in domestic companies is making significant breakthroughs, with companies like Xingfa Group advancing steadily in their black phosphorus projects [3] - Xingfa Group has established a 100 kg-level black phosphorus pilot test facility, achieving stable production of black phosphorus crystals at a scale of 100 kg per batch, while continuously reducing production costs [3] - Ruifeng High Materials is working on a ton-level pilot production line, aiming to complete normal operation of a 100 kg facility by 2024, further promoting the low-cost industrialization of black phosphorus [3]

Company Overview - Hubei Xingfa Chemical Group Co., Ltd. is located in Yichang City, Hubei Province, and was established on August 17, 1994, with its listing date on June 16, 1999 [1] - The company primarily engages in the mining and sales of phosphate rock, production and sales of phosphate fertilizers, glyphosate, organic silicon, and other chemical products, as well as trading activities [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 14.62 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.07%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9.72% to 727 million yuan [2] - Since its A-share listing, the company has distributed a total of 4.814 billion yuan in dividends, with 2.869 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3] Stock Performance - As of September 1, the stock price of Xingfa Group increased by 2.06%, reaching 28.30 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 31.222 billion yuan [1] - The stock has seen a year-to-date increase of 36.71%, with a 4.70% rise over the last five trading days, 14.71% over the last 20 days, and 41.50% over the last 60 days [1] Shareholder Information - As of August 20, the number of shareholders of Xingfa Group was 53,500, an increase of 0.57% from the previous period, with an average of 20,611 circulating shares per person, a decrease of 0.57% [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include Southern CSI 500 ETF, holding 11.4515 million shares, an increase of 1.6033 million shares from the previous period [3]

Group 1: Metal Sector - Luoyang Molybdenum's net profit forecast for 2025 is 168.65 billion CNY, with a PE ratio of 15.32[12] - The company expects to increase copper production to 70,000 tons in 2025, a 56% year-on-year growth[14] - The strategic partnership with CATL aims to enhance lithium and nickel resource acquisition, contributing over 70% to gross profit[17] Group 2: Cement Sector - Huaxin Cement's domestic sales are projected to decline from 5,004,000 tons in 2023 to 4,078,000 tons in 2025, while overseas sales are expected to grow to 2,017,000 tons[30] - The company aims for a net profit of 19.58 billion CNY from overseas operations by 2026, reflecting a 25% increase from 2025[30] Group 3: Logistics Sector - Eastern Airlines Logistics' revenue from the US market accounts for 20%-30%, with a 5% decline in comprehensive freight rates due to tariff policies[32] - The company is adjusting its route structure to improve performance in the European market, anticipating a recovery in the second half of the year[32] Group 4: Chemical Sector - Wanhua Chemical's net profit is expected to recover as MDI prices stabilize, with a projected increase in demand from the furniture industry[50] - The company is positioned to benefit from a tightening supply of TDI, with prices expected to remain high through 2027[50] Group 5: Power Sector - Changjiang Electric Power's EPS forecast for 2025 is 1.38 CNY, with a PE ratio of 20.26, supported by a commitment to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 70%[74] - The company plans to repurchase shares worth 4-8 billion CNY, reflecting confidence in its future growth[74]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: GAN_GRU **Model Construction Idea**: The GAN_GRU model combines Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) for processing volume-price time-series features and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) for encoding time-series features to create a stock selection factor[4][13][41] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **GRU Component**: - Input features include 18 volume-price features such as closing price, opening price, turnover, and turnover rate[14][17][19] - Training data consists of the past 400 days of these features, sampled every 5 trading days, forming a 40x18 matrix to predict cumulative returns over the next 20 trading days[18] - Data preprocessing includes outlier removal and normalization at both time-series and cross-sectional levels[18] - Model architecture: Two GRU layers (128, 128) followed by an MLP (256, 64, 64), with the final output being the predicted return (pRet), which serves as the stock selection factor[22] - Training method: Semi-annual rolling training, with training conducted on June 30 and December 31 each year[18] - Optimization: Adam optimizer, learning rate of 1e-4, IC loss function, early stopping after 10 epochs, and a maximum of 50 training epochs[18] 2. **GAN Component**: - GAN consists of a generator (G) and a discriminator (D)[23] - Generator: Uses LSTM to preserve the time-series nature of the input features, transforming random noise into realistic data samples[33][37] - Loss function: $$ L_{G} = -\mathbb{E}_{z\sim P_{z}(z)}[\log(D(G(z)))] $$ where \( z \) represents random noise, \( G(z) \) is the generated data, and \( D(G(z)) \) is the discriminator's output probability[24][25] - Discriminator: Uses CNN to process the two-dimensional volume-price time-series features, distinguishing between real and generated data[33][37] - Loss function: $$ L_{D} = -\mathbb{E}_{x\sim P_{data}(x)}[\log D(x)] - \mathbb{E}_{z\sim P_{z}(z)}[\log(1-D(G(z)))] $$ where \( x \) is real data, \( D(x) \) is the discriminator's output for real data, and \( D(G(z)) \) is the output for generated data[27][29] - Training: Alternating updates of the generator and discriminator parameters until convergence[30] **Model Evaluation**: The GAN_GRU model effectively captures both time-series and cross-sectional features, leveraging the strengths of GAN and GRU for stock selection[4][13][41] --- Model Backtesting Results - **GAN_GRU Model**: - **IC Mean**: 11.36%[41][42] - **ICIR (Non-Annualized)**: 0.88[42] - **Turnover Rate**: 0.83[42] - **Recent IC**: -2.56%[41][42] - **1-Year IC Mean**: 8.94%[41][42] - **Annualized Return**: 38.09%[42] - **Annualized Volatility**: 23.68%[42] - **IR**: 1.61[42] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 27.29%[42] - **Annualized Excess Return**: 23.52%[41][42] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: GAN_GRU Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Derived from the GAN_GRU model, this factor encodes volume-price time-series features to predict stock returns[4][13][41] **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is generated using the output of the GAN_GRU model, which combines GAN-based feature generation and GRU-based time-series encoding[4][13][41] - The factor undergoes industry and market capitalization neutralization, as well as standardization, before being used for testing[22] **Factor Evaluation**: The GAN_GRU factor demonstrates strong predictive power across various industries, with consistent outperformance in recent years[4][13][41] --- Factor Backtesting Results - **GAN_GRU Factor**: - **IC Mean**: 11.36%[41][42] - **ICIR (Non-Annualized)**: 0.88[42] - **Turnover Rate**: 0.83[42] - **Recent IC**: -2.56%[41][42] - **1-Year IC Mean**: 8.94%[41][42] - **Annualized Return**: 38.09%[42] - **Annualized Volatility**: 23.68%[42] - **IR**: 1.61[42] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 27.29%[42] - **Annualized Excess Return**: 23.52%[41][42]