Summary of Conference Call on Optical Fiber and Cable Industry Industry Overview - The optical fiber and cable industry is experiencing high demand, expected to remain strong through 2026 and beyond, with significant investment opportunities identified for core and evolving companies [1][2] - The primary demand source is currently the telecommunications network, but emerging fields like data centers are anticipated to become important growth drivers [1][5] Key Insights and Arguments - **Price Trends**: Optical fiber prices are expected to continue rising, driven by AI demand. The current average price for domestic optical cables is around 40-50 RMB, while overseas prices exceed 100 RMB [1][10] - **Market Dynamics**: China accounts for approximately 50% of global optical cable production capacity, with a demand of 250 million core kilometers. The North American market is rapidly growing and is projected to match China's demand by 2030 [1][9] - **Profit Margins**: Profitability in the optical cable industry is heavily reliant on upstream fiber capabilities, with gross margins around 10% for companies lacking core capabilities [1][9] Emerging Opportunities - Companies involved in North American infrastructure projects, such as Xuchuang, Xinyi, Yuanjie, and Tianfu, are highlighted for their growth potential [1][7] - Firms engaged in emerging technologies like silicon photonics and telecommunications equipment are also noted for their high order visibility and planned expansions for 2027 and 2028 [1][8] Demand Drivers - The demand for optical fibers is significantly influenced by AI, with expectations for a doubling of high-speed optical module shipments in 2026, which will correspondingly double the demand for optical fibers [3][18] - The construction of data centers in the U.S. and the implementation of the $40 billion broadband initiative are expected to further boost fiber demand [3][18] Supply Chain Insights - The optical fiber supply chain consists of preform, fiber, and cable, with the preform segment being the most challenging and profitable [6] - Current production capacity utilization rates are high, with domestic output increasing from 400 million RMB per month in 2024 to 700-800 million RMB by October 2025 [14] Market Challenges - Despite rising prices, there is currently no clear intention among domestic fiber companies to expand production due to historical volatility in demand [15] - The domestic optical cable market has seen slight production increases, primarily driven by mobile tenders, but overall growth remains limited [16] Geopolitical Influences - The use of drones, particularly in military applications, has significantly impacted fiber demand, with conflicts in Ukraine and Russia contributing to a monthly requirement of 100 million core kilometers, representing 15% of global demand [17] Investment Recommendations - Investment focus should be on leading optical fiber and cable companies such as Hengtong, Zhongtian, Changfei, and Fenghuo, which exhibit substantial elasticity [21] - Companies involved in MPO (Multi-fiber Parallel Optics) production, such as Bochuang and Taicheng, are also recommended due to their potential to benefit from North American market growth [21]

Core Viewpoint - The current market is expected to remain volatile due to global geopolitical conflicts, the US-China technology rivalry, and uncertainties regarding overseas AI investments, leading to a cautious and neutral allocation strategy. However, there is a long-term optimistic outlook on domestic AI computing power, optical modules, 6G industry trends, domestic substitution, self-control, and military industry growth, which could catalyze market opportunities in various sectors [1]. Group 1: Space Infrastructure and Satellite Communication - The space infrastructure competition is accelerating industry development, with the US government emphasizing the importance of maintaining "space superiority" through increased R&D and private sector investment. This sector is seen as a critical area in the US-China rivalry, with the domestic satellite constellation launches and commercial space development expected to expand market size [2]. - The issuance of satellite internet licenses in China marks a significant step towards commercial operation, which is anticipated to drive the entire industry chain towards large-scale acceleration. The development of satellite internet is progressing rapidly, with regular satellite launches expected to enhance communication capacity and reduce latency [2]. Group 2: Hollow Core Fiber and AI Applications - The demand for hollow core fibers is expected to benefit from AI catalysis, as these fibers offer low latency, wide spectrum, low loss, and low nonlinearity, addressing the physical limitations of traditional fibers. The current phase is critical for the rapid iteration and evolution of hollow core fibers, which are still in the early stages of commercialization [3]. - The unique characteristics of hollow core fibers are projected to meet the growing demands of AI large model applications, highlighting their potential value in internal interconnections, metropolitan data center interconnections, and wide-area interconnections. Beneficiary companies include Yangtze Optical Fibre (601869), Hengtong Optic-Electric (600487), FiberHome Technologies (600498), and Zhongtian Technology (600522) [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Beneficiary stocks in satellite communication and satellite IoT include companies involved in chip and T/R component industries such as Chengchang Technology, Guobo Electronics, Zhenlei Technology, Shanghai Huanxun, and Xinke Mobile. The terminal antenna supply chain includes Chengchang Technology, Tongyu Communication, Guobo Electronics, and Zhaoshengwei (300782) [4]. - Key players in terminal chips and core networks include China Mobile (600941), China Unicom (600050), China Telecom (601728), Haige Communication (002465), Huali Chuantong (300045), and Zhenyou Technology. Testing instrument companies include Kunheng Shunwei and Chuangyuan Xinke [4].

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Positive (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the potential recovery in fiber optic cable prices driven by increased demand from AI applications and the acceleration of domestic AI bidding processes [6][19] - The AI ecosystem is continuously evolving, with significant advancements in models and infrastructure, particularly from major players like ByteDance and Google [15][16] - The demand for fiber optic cables is expected to rise due to the increasing requirements for internal network connectivity in AI model training and application deployment [18] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Investment Insights - The opening of the Volcano Engine FORCE conference showcased advancements in AI agent technology and cloud-native architecture [13] - The daily token usage of the Doubao model has surpassed 50 trillion, indicating rapid industry adoption [15] - Google is enhancing its AI ecosystem, with new TPU chips expected to drive demand for liquid cooling solutions [16] - Companies are increasingly interested in renting TPU chips, which will further stimulate ASIC demand [17] - AI is driving the demand for fiber optic cables, with prices expected to recover [18] - Investment recommendations focus on key sectors such as optical networks, liquid cooling, and domestic computing power [19] 2. Communication Data Tracking - As of October 2025, the total number of 5G base stations in China reached 4.758 million, with a net increase of 507,000 from the end of 2024 [28] - The number of 5G mobile phone users reached 1.184 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 18.99% [28] - The shipment of 5G mobile phones in September 2025 was 24.106 million units, representing an 8.02% year-on-year increase [28] 3. Operator Performance - The revenue from cloud services for major operators showed strong growth, with China Mobile's cloud revenue reaching 56.1 billion yuan, up 11.3% year-on-year [47] - China Telecom's cloud revenue for the first half of 2025 was 57.3 billion yuan, a 3.8% increase [47] - The ARPU values for major operators remained stable, with slight decreases noted for China Unicom [47][52]

Market Performance - The F5G concept index declined by 0.44%, ranking among the top losers in the concept sector as of the market close on December 19 [1] - Notable decliners within the F5G sector included Dekoli, Dongtianwei, and Shijia Photon, while the top gainers were Hengtong Optic, Fenghuo Communication, and CITIC Heavy Industries, with respective increases of 5.13%, 4.83%, and 1.77% [1] Capital Flow - The F5G concept sector experienced a net outflow of 170 million yuan, with 26 stocks seeing net outflows, and 7 stocks with outflows exceeding 50 million yuan [2] - Shijia Photon led the outflow with a net withdrawal of 254 million yuan, followed by Tongyu Communication, Dongtianwei, and Dekoli, which had net outflows of 163 million yuan, 122 million yuan, and 108 million yuan respectively [2][3] - Conversely, the stocks with the highest net inflows included Fenghuo Communication, Guangxun Technology, and Hengtong Optic, attracting net inflows of 500 million yuan, 213 million yuan, and 81 million yuan respectively [2][3]

通信线缆及配套板块走高，通鼎互联此前涨停，长飞光纤、长盈通、特发信息、亨通光电、中天科技等 跟涨。 ...

Group 1 - The traditional optical fiber and cable market is showing clear signs of recovery after a four-year cyclical bottoming period, with the overseas specialty fiber market entering a high-growth phase driven by breakthroughs in AI computing power and the explosion of application scenarios [1] - The ordinary optical cable market has confirmed its bottom, with significant signs of supply-demand rebalancing and recovery. In the first half of 2025, China's optical cable production is expected to reach 12,532.3 million core kilometers, showing a narrowed decline compared to previous periods, indicating a stabilization trend [1] - Major optical fiber manufacturers have reported a price increase of approximately 15% for ordinary optical cables, with positive signals in volume and price indicators, suggesting that operator procurement prices are likely to stabilize and recover, gradually restoring industry profitability [1] Group 2 - The demand for specialty fibers is experiencing explosive growth, driven by the requirements of AI computing clusters for lower latency, higher bandwidth, and greater density in data transmission [2] - Hollow-core fibers, with advantages in low latency and high bandwidth potential, are expected to see increased penetration as mass production technology breakthroughs accelerate [2] - Domestic leaders in hollow-core and multi-core fiber technologies have reached internationally advanced levels and are poised to seize new market opportunities in response to rapid demand [2] Group 3 - The optical fiber and cable sector is currently at a low valuation, attracting increased attention due to the clear leadership structure and stable revenue and profitability of leading companies [3] - The recovery trend in the ordinary optical cable business provides a solid safety margin and profit recovery elasticity, while the specialty fiber business is expected to experience explosive growth under the AI computing wave, opening up long-term growth potential [3] - Companies such as Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Limited Company (601869), Hengtong Optic-electric (600487), and Zhongtian Technology (600522) are recommended for investment [3]

Group 1 - Hengtong Optic-Electric Co., Ltd. experienced a stock price increase of 5.31%, reaching 23.80 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 966 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.70%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 58.708 billion CNY [1] - The company, founded on June 5, 1993, and listed on August 22, 2003, specializes in high-end technology, product research and development, and system integration services in the communication network and energy interconnection sectors, particularly in global submarine cable communication network construction [1] - The revenue composition of Hengtong Optic-Electric includes: smart grid (36.98%), copper conductors (25.02%), industrial and new energy intelligence (11.28%), optical communication (10.94%), marine energy and communication (9.57%), and others (5.33%) [1] Group 2 - Bank of China Securities has a fund that heavily invests in Hengtong Optic-Electric, specifically the BOC Securities CSI 500 ETF Linked A (008258), which held 700 shares as of the third quarter, ranking it as the ninth largest holding [2] - The BOC Securities CSI 500 ETF Linked A (008258) was established on May 14, 2020, with a current size of 250 million CNY, achieving a year-to-date return of 23.07%, ranking 2070 out of 4197 in its category, and a one-year return of 19.9%, ranking 2255 out of 4147 [2] Group 3 - The fund managers of BOC Securities CSI 500 ETF Linked A (008258) are Liu Xianzheng and Zhang Yimin, with Liu having a tenure of 7 years and 326 days and Zhang having a tenure of 5 years and 97 days, both managing a total fund size of 794 million CNY [3] - During Liu's tenure, the best fund return was 118.04%, while the worst was -34.66%, whereas Zhang's best return was 22.12% and the worst was -40.75% [3]

Group 1 - Hengtong Optic-Electric Co., Ltd. experienced a stock price increase of 5.31%, reaching 23.80 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 916 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.62%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 58.708 billion CNY [1] - The company, founded on June 5, 1993, and listed on August 22, 2003, specializes in high-end technology, product research and development, and system integration services in the fields of communication networks and energy interconnection, as well as global submarine cable communication network construction [1] - The revenue composition of Hengtong Optic-Electric includes: smart grid 36.98%, copper conductor 25.02%, industrial and new energy intelligence 11.28%, optical communication 10.94%, marine energy and communication 9.57%, and others 5.33% [1] Group 2 - Hengtong Optic-Electric is a significant holding in the Xinyi Fund, specifically in the Xinyi CSI 500 Index Enhanced A Fund (015507), which held 302,100 shares, accounting for 1.13% of the fund's net value, ranking as the sixth largest holding [2] - The Xinyi CSI 500 Index Enhanced A Fund was established on June 7, 2022, with a latest scale of 99.6083 million CNY, achieving a year-to-date return of 30.61%, ranking 1355 out of 4197 in its category [2] - The fund has a one-year return of 28.33%, ranking 1363 out of 4147, and a cumulative return since inception of 29.07% [2] Group 3 - The fund manager of the Xinyi CSI 500 Index Enhanced A Fund is Lou Huafeng, who has a tenure of 9 years and 351 days, managing total assets of 2.373 billion CNY [3] - During Lou Huafeng's tenure, the best fund return was 88.18%, while the worst return was -13.85% [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the continuous improvement of Google's AI ecosystem, with the release of TPUv7 Ironwood and Gemini 3 series models, which are expected to drive demand for liquid cooling solutions and enhance market expansion [3][4] - There is a strong demand for TPU, with companies like Anthropic and Meta planning to rent TPU chips from Google, indicating a significant market opportunity [4] - The AI sector is expected to boost the demand for optical fibers and cables, leading to a potential price recovery in this segment [5] - The report emphasizes three core investment themes: "Optical, Liquid Cooling, and Domestic Computing Power," while also highlighting opportunities in satellite and edge AI [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report indicates a positive outlook for the industry, with a focus on the advancements in AI technology and its implications for related sectors [1] Market Trends - The demand for TPU is increasing, with notable partnerships and rental agreements being established, which will likely enhance ASIC demand [4] - The AI-driven growth is expected to elevate the usage of optical fibers and cables, particularly in data center interconnects and metropolitan area networks [5] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Invec (leader in liquid cooling solutions), with beneficiaries such as Feilong Co., Dayuan Pump Industry, Lingyun Co., and others in the optical fiber and cable sector [4][5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The electricity sector experienced a slight increase of 0.17% on the previous trading day, with Hengtong Optoelectronics leading the gains [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3876.37, up by 0.16% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13053.98, down by 1.29% [1] Group 2: Capital Flow - The electricity sector saw a net outflow of 507 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 371 million yuan [2] - Speculative funds recorded a net inflow of 136 million yuan into the electricity sector [2]