（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，1月15日，贵金属板块短线走高，湖南白银、晓程科技涨超4%，招金黄金、四川黄金、山 东黄金跟涨。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a general increase in non-ferrous metals, with significant price movements observed in various metals such as tin, nickel, and silver [1] - The LME copper price rose by $24, reaching $13,188 per ton, while LME aluminum fell by $12 to $3,186 per ton [1] - The international geopolitical tensions are driving safe-haven investments and central bank allocations towards gold, reinforcing a bullish trend in precious metals [1] Group 2 - The China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) saw a strong increase of 1.55%, with notable gains in stocks such as Huayou Cobalt, which rose by 7.20%, and Yunnan Tin, which increased by 5.32% [1] - The Penghua Non-Ferrous ETF closely tracks the China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index, which includes 50 prominent securities in the non-ferrous metals sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in this industry [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 51.65% of the total, including companies like Zijin Mining and China Northern Rare Earth [2]

贵金属板块走高，湖南白银、晓程科技涨超4%，招金黄金、四川黄金、山东黄金跟涨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has reached a record high of $4,640 per ounce as of January 14, 2026, driven by international turmoil, benefiting upstream mining companies while putting pressure on downstream retail businesses [1]. Upstream Mining Sector - Leading mining companies are expected to see significant profit growth in 2025 due to rising gold prices. For instance, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining anticipates a net profit of 3 to 3.2 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 70% to 81% [2]. - Chifeng Jilong attributes this growth to an expected gold production of approximately 14.4 tons and a 49% increase in gold sales prices [2]. - Zijin Mining forecasts a net profit of about 51 to 52 billion yuan for 2025, an increase of approximately 59% to 62% compared to 2024, driven by both production increases and price hikes [3]. - Zijin Mining's production figures include around 90 tons of gold, 1.09 million tons of copper, and 437 tons of silver, all showing year-on-year growth [3]. - Other mining companies, such as Zhaojin Mining, reported substantial revenue and profit increases, with Zhaojin achieving a 119.51% year-on-year revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2025 [3]. Downstream Retail Sector - In contrast to the mining sector, downstream retail businesses are facing challenges, with many reporting declining revenues and profits. For example, Lao Feng Xiang's revenue fell by 8.71% to 48 billion yuan, and net profit decreased by 19.05% [4]. - The jewelry segment, particularly, has been adversely affected, with Lao Feng Xiang's jewelry sales dropping by 11.51% [4]. - Zhou Dashing reported a revenue decline of 37.35% to approximately 6.77 billion yuan, although its net profit saw a slight increase of 3.13% [4]. - The pressure on jewelry companies is attributed to the high price elasticity of demand for gold jewelry, leading to reduced sales volumes despite higher nominal prices [4]. Future Outlook for Gold - Investment institutions remain optimistic about gold prices in 2026, with no signs of reversal in the factors driving price increases [5]. - The World Gold Council anticipates that investment demand, particularly through gold ETFs, will continue to be a key driver [6]. - Goldman Sachs notes a structurally strong demand for gold from central banks, alongside cyclical support from potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which will contribute to rising gold prices [7].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share precious metals sector experienced a significant surge, with multiple leading stocks reaching historical highs, driven by global market dynamics and rising gold and silver prices [2][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 13, the A-share precious metals index rose by 2.69%, with notable gains from stocks such as Xiaocheng Technology (up 8.52%) and Hunan Silver (up 7.64%) [5][14]. - The London gold price reached a historical high of $4630.24 per ounce on January 12, while silver peaked at $86.247 per ounce, both setting new records [2][11]. - As of January 13, London gold was priced at $4593.90 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 6.38%, while London silver was at $85.64 per ounce, with a year-to-date rise of 19.65% [2][6]. Group 2: Investment Outlook - Multiple international investment banks have raised their forecasts, with Citigroup predicting gold could reach $5000 per ounce and silver $100 per ounce within three months under a bullish scenario [2][7]. - The current market is characterized by a "credit reconstruction" phase, influenced by geopolitical tensions, concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, and increased central bank gold purchases [3][12]. - Analysts suggest that while gold and silver have long-term investment value due to ongoing demand for safe-haven assets, short-term volatility risks should be monitored closely [7][16]. Group 3: Risk Management - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange announced adjustments to margin requirements for gold and silver to mitigate market volatility risks [6][15]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a risk warning, advising members to closely monitor market changes and prepare for potential volatility [6][15]. - Investment strategies should focus on asset allocation and risk management, emphasizing the importance of understanding market trends and maintaining discipline in trading [8][17].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals sector experienced a rise of 1.56% on January 14, with Hunan Silver leading the gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.31% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.56% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Hunan Silver closed at 9.92, up by 9.98%, with a trading volume of 3.897 million shares and a transaction value of 3.805 billion yuan [1] - Other notable performers included Shanjin International, which rose by 3.60% to 27.94, and Sichuan Gold, which increased by 2.51% to 31.49 [1] - The overall precious metals sector saw a net inflow of 238 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 247 million yuan [1] Group 2: Fund Flow Analysis - Main funds showed a net inflow of 88.8975 million yuan for Hunan Silver, while retail investors had a net outflow of 12.6 million yuan [2] - Shanjin International had a net inflow of 77.3476 million yuan from main funds, with retail investors seeing a net outflow of 1.49 million yuan [2] - Sichuan Gold recorded a net inflow of 44.7158 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors faced a net outflow of 4.28173 million yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - 2026 is identified as the "Year of the Red Horse," which is favorable for the Chinese base metals market due to factors such as a weak dollar, a U.S. interest rate cut cycle, and ongoing supply tightness in copper and aluminum [1] Group 1: Market Drivers - Demand drivers for this year include a 10% year-on-year increase in grid investment, a 27% growth in electric vehicle battery production, a 41% increase in energy storage systems, and rising AI power demand [1] - The real estate and consumer sectors are experiencing weakness, while the implementation of anti-involution policies is becoming more balanced but currently lacks strong enforcement [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The company favors aluminum stocks as alternative investments for AI power supply, maintaining a "buy" outlook on gold, copper, lithium (including battery materials), and cobalt stocks [1] - The company holds a neutral view on coal and is bearish on solar energy and construction materials (such as steel) due to weak demand, short-term weak enforcement of anti-involution policies, and declining steel profit margins [1] Group 3: Preferred Stocks - Preferred stocks include China Aluminum, Zijin Mining, China Hongqiao, Shandong Gold, and Ganfeng Lithium [1]

Core Viewpoint - 2026 is identified as the "Year of the Red Horse," which is favorable for the Chinese base metals market due to factors such as a weak dollar, a U.S. interest rate cut cycle, and strong demand driven by electrification and AI power infrastructure [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - A weak dollar and the U.S. interest rate cut cycle are beneficial for metals [1] - Continuous supply tightness for copper and aluminum is noted [1] Group 2: Demand Drivers - Key demand drivers include a 10% year-on-year increase in grid investment, a 27% growth in electric vehicle battery demand, a 41% increase in energy storage systems, and rising AI power demand [1] Group 3: Sector Outlook - The real estate and consumer sectors are experiencing weakness [1] - Policies aimed at reducing internal competition are becoming more balanced, although recent execution has been weak [1] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The firm prefers aluminum stocks as alternative investments for AI power supply [1] - A "buy" outlook is maintained for gold, copper, lithium (including battery materials), and cobalt stocks [1] - Coal is viewed neutrally, while solar and construction materials (like steel) are seen negatively due to weak demand and declining steel profit margins [1] Group 5: Preferred Stocks - Preferred stocks include China Aluminum, Zijin Mining, China Hongqiao, Shandong Gold, and Ganfeng Lithium [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong upward trend, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector, with significant price increases in various metals and ETFs [1][3]. Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector is benefiting from multiple catalysts, including macroeconomic disturbances, rigid supply, and new demand dynamics [3]. - The non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) has seen a price increase of over 2%, reaching new highs [1][5]. - Key stocks in the sector include Zijin Mining, which rose by 2.69%, and Yunnan Tin, which surged by 6.29% [2][5]. Precious Metals Insights - Gold prices are supported by geopolitical tensions and weak employment data, with forecasts suggesting potential for gold to exceed $4,500 per ounce [3]. - The World Gold Council reported a net purchase of 45 tons of gold by central banks in November, indicating strong demand [3]. Industrial Metals Dynamics - Copper prices are expected to continue rising due to supply constraints and regional mismatches, with a projected total market shortfall of over 100,000 tons by 2026 [6]. - The ongoing geopolitical risks and supply security concerns are driving copper prices to new historical highs [6]. Lithium Market Outlook - Policy changes are anticipated to lead to a short-term surge in lithium exports, positively impacting lithium carbonate prices [4][6]. - The demand for lithium remains robust, with expectations of continued strong performance in the battery sector [4]. Investment Strategy - The non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted as a comprehensive investment vehicle covering various metal sectors, with a high concentration of strategic assets [7][9]. - The ETF's copper content is 34%, and gold content is 12%, making it a leading option in its category [9]. Performance Metrics - The non-ferrous 50 ETF has shown a cumulative return of 99.61% since 2022, driven by earnings rather than valuation increases, with a current PE ratio of 26.27, down 52% from five years ago [11].

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