Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the metals and new materials industry, highlighting quality targets in gold and copper [2][3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the rising expectations for interest rate cuts, which are anticipated to support the prices of precious metals and industrial metals. It suggests that the central bank's gold purchases will be a long-term trend, leading to a sustained upward movement in gold prices [3][21]. - The report identifies specific companies to watch, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Shandong Gold, and others, based on their potential for recovery and growth in the current market environment [3][18]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.88%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 4.73%. The non-ferrous metals index rose by 1.13%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 2.11 percentage points [4][3]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has increased by 71.51%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 53.06 percentage points [7][4]. Price Changes and Industry Key Companies Valuation - Industrial metals prices saw increases: copper prices rose by 3.38%, aluminum by 2.93%, and zinc by 3.14% week-on-week. In contrast, precious metals like gold and silver saw declines of 3.30% and 4.38%, respectively [13][14]. - The report provides a detailed valuation of key companies in the industry, indicating their stock prices, earnings per share (EPS), and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, with companies like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold highlighted for their strong performance [18][19]. Precious Metals - The report notes an increase in gold ETF holdings, with a total of 1,531 tons, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.2% week-on-week. The report also highlights the increasing confidence in gold as a safe-haven asset amid economic uncertainties [21][22]. - The gold-silver ratio is reported at 85.5, indicating the relative pricing dynamics between these two precious metals [22]. Copper Market Analysis - The report details the supply and demand dynamics for copper, noting a decrease in the copper treatment charge (TC) to $42.6 per dry ton, alongside an increase in domestic social inventory to 182,000 tons [27][16]. - The report highlights the operational rates for copper products, with the electrolytic copper rod and wire and cable operating rates at 61.6% and 62.3%, respectively [27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Aluminum [5][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that industrial metal prices are expected to remain strong due to seasonal demand and supply disruptions, particularly for copper and aluminum [2][3]. - Energy metals like lithium and cobalt are projected to perform well, driven by strong demand in the energy storage market and supply constraints [3]. - Precious metals are anticipated to experience price fluctuations in the short term, but long-term trends remain bullish due to central bank gold purchases and weakening dollar credit [4]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - Copper prices are supported by macroeconomic sentiment and supply disruptions, with the SMM import copper concentrate index at $51.2/ton, down $0.6/ton month-on-month [2]. - Aluminum demand is robust, particularly from the automotive sector, with domestic aluminum ingot social inventory at approximately 618,000 tons, down 9,000 tons week-on-week [2]. - Key companies recommended include Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [2]. Energy Metals - Lithium supply is increasing due to new production lines, while demand from the energy storage market is exceeding expectations, supporting strong prices [3]. - Cobalt prices are rising due to supply concerns from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with Chinese companies receiving fewer export quotas than expected [3]. - Recommended companies include Huayou Cobalt and Yichun Lithium [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are experiencing short-term volatility due to optimistic international conditions, but long-term outlook remains positive with central bank purchases [4]. - Silver prices are influenced by industrial demand and follow gold's price movements [4]. - Recommended companies include Western Gold and Shandong Gold [4].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the CPI is lower than expected, which enhances the probability of interest rate cuts, leading to an upward trend in metal prices [28][44] - Precious metals are experiencing price fluctuations, with gold and silver prices showing a downward trend recently, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to macroeconomic factors [28][44] - The report highlights the ongoing geopolitical tensions and their impact on market dynamics, particularly in the context of U.S.-China trade relations and the potential for further economic negotiations [45][48] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - This week, COMEX gold fell by 3.30% to $4,126.90 per ounce, while COMEX silver dropped by 4.38% to $48.41 per ounce. SHFE gold decreased by 6.17% to ¥938.10 per gram, and SHFE silver fell by 7.49% to ¥11,332.00 per kilogram [28][30] - The gold price has increased over 60% this year, but recent fluctuations indicate a potential short-term correction as the market enters an overbought zone [44][48] - The report notes a significant reduction in holdings for major ETFs, with SPDR gold ETF decreasing by 9,186.33 ounces and SLV silver ETF by 89,770.80 ounces [30] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper rose by 3.21% to $10,947.00 per ton, aluminum increased by 2.81% to $2,856.50 per ton, zinc went up by 2.62% to $3,019.50 per ton, and lead climbed by 2.28% to $2,016.50 per ton [54] - SHFE market showed similar trends with copper up by 3.95% to ¥87,720.00 per ton, aluminum up by 1.51% to ¥21,225.00 per ton, zinc up by 2.48% to ¥22,355.00 per ton, and lead up by 3.05% to ¥17,595.00 per ton [54] - The report emphasizes that the supply of copper is facing challenges, with a projected production growth of only 1.4% in 2025, which is below the demand growth rate of approximately 3% [9][22] Small Metals - Magnesium prices decreased by 0.45% to ¥17,840 per ton, while demand remains stable, leading to a reduction in inventory levels [18] - Molybdenum and vanadium prices are under pressure, with molybdenum iron prices down by 2.12% to ¥27.75 per ton, reflecting cautious market sentiment [19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing concerns about global debt and monetary easing, with U.S. debt exceeding $38 trillion and projected budget deficits [20][49] - The report identifies several gold mining companies as potential beneficiaries of rising gold prices, including Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold, and China National Gold Group [20][49] - For silver, the report anticipates a supply shortage of approximately 3,660 tons by 2025, supporting a bullish outlook for silver prices [49]

证券之星消息，10月24日南向资金增持64.56万股山东黄金（01787.HK）。近5个交易日中，获南向资金 减持的有4天，累计净减持1734.89万股。近20个交易日中，获南向资金减持的有9天，累计净减持571.38 万股。截至目前，南向资金持有山东黄金（01787.HK）5.3亿股，占公司已发行普通股的53.27%。 | 交易日 | 持股总数(股) | 持股变动(股) | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-10-24 | 5.30亿 | 64.56万 | 0.12% | | 2025-10-23 | 5.30亿 | -337.44万 | -0.63% | | 2025-10-22 | 5.33亿 | -1057.37万 | -1.94% | | 2025-10-21 | 5.44亿 | -81.77万 | -0.15% | | 2025-10-20 | 5.45 7 | -322.88万 | -0.59% | 山东黄金矿业股份有限公司是一家主要从事黄金及有色金属的勘查、开采、选冶、销售的中国公司。该 公司还从事黄金矿山专用设备、建筑装饰材料（不含国家法律法规限 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices have not hindered the profitability of gold companies, which are reporting significant revenue and profit increases in their third-quarter results. Company Performance - Zijin Mining reported a revenue of 254.2 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.33%, and a net profit of 37.86 billion yuan, up 55.45% year-on-year. Gold production reached 65 tons, a 20% increase year-on-year, with Q3 production at 24 tons, up 7% from Q2 [1][5]. - Shandong Gold expects a net profit of 3.8 billion to 4.1 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing an increase of 83.9% to 98.5% year-on-year [5]. - Zhaojin Mining reported approximately 12.43 billion yuan in revenue, a 53.73% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of about 2.12 billion yuan, up 140.43% year-on-year [5]. - Zhaojin Gold achieved revenue of 340 million yuan, a 119.51% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 82.16 million yuan, compared to a loss of 90.08 million yuan in the previous year [5]. - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining announced a revenue of 8.64 billion yuan, a 38.91% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.06 billion yuan, up 86.21% year-on-year [5]. Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs maintains a forecast for gold prices to reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, while JPMorgan views gold as a top long-term investment, predicting prices to hit $5,055 per ounce by Q4 2026 and $6,000 by 2028 [5]. Cost Factors - Zijin Mining noted that factors such as declining ore grades, increased transportation distances, and higher stripping ratios at open-pit mines have led to an increase in unit sales costs [7]. - Zhaojin Gold attributed its profitability to product structure adjustments, increased sales prices, and reduced production costs, resulting in a gross profit margin increase of 38.12% year-on-year [7]. Stock Performance - As of October 24, 2023, Zijin Mining's A-shares have risen over 100% year-to-date, Chifeng Jilong Gold's A-shares have increased over 85%, Shandong Gold's A-shares have risen over 60%, and Zhongjin Gold's A-shares have increased over 90% [9].

Core Viewpoint - The construction of the 1500 tons per day tailings processing plant by Hong Kong Fulin Company is currently underway and is expected to be completed by the end of 2025 according to the original schedule [2] Company Summary - Zhaojin Gold responded to investor inquiries on October 24, confirming the ongoing construction of the tailings processing plant [2] - The project is significant for the company's operational capacity and future production capabilities [2] Industry Summary - The tailings processing plant is part of a broader trend in the mining industry focusing on sustainable practices and resource recovery [2] - The completion of such projects is crucial for enhancing the efficiency and environmental impact of mining operations [2]

Group 1 - The recent volatility in the gold market has seen spot gold prices drop below $4060 per ounce, with a daily decline exceeding 1% on the 24th [1] - Prior to this, spot gold experienced a significant correction, with a drop of 6.3% on the 21st, marking the largest daily decline since April 2013 [2] - Analysts from Guojin Securities attribute the rapid correction in gold prices to technical adjustments and changes in the macro environment, while maintaining that the long-term upward trend in gold remains intact due to structural erosion of the dollar's credit system [2] Group 2 - Haitong Securities highlights that the ongoing trend of de-dollarization, geopolitical risks, and the need for diversified investment portfolios are driving central banks and institutional investors to increase their gold allocations, providing solid support for gold prices [2] - The restructuring of the global order positions gold as the most suitable safe-haven asset [2] - The high gold prices have positively impacted the performance of gold-related listed companies, with significant profit increases reported [2] Group 3 - Shandong Gold expects to achieve a net profit of 3.8 billion to 4.1 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 83.9% to 98.5% [4] - Zhaojin Gold reported a net profit of 82.16 million yuan for the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 191.2% [4] - Zijin Mining's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters reached 37.864 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 55.45% [4]

Core Insights - The precious metals sector experienced a decline of 1.08% on October 24, with Hunan Silver leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3950.31, up 0.71%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13289.18, up 2.02% [1] Precious Metals Sector Performance - Hunan Silver closed at 6.40, down 2.59%, with a trading volume of 1.35 million shares and a transaction value of 867 million [2] - Other notable declines include: - Shandong Gold down 1.11% to 36.50 with a transaction value of 1.14 billion [2] - Hunan Gold down 0.74% to 20.13 with a transaction value of 917 million [2] - The only gain in the sector was seen in Chifeng Gold, which rose 0.35% to 28.88 with a transaction value of 1.17 billion [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The precious metals sector saw a net outflow of 1.026 billion from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 1.101 billion [3] - Key stocks with significant capital flow include: - Hunan Silver with a net outflow of 134 million from institutional investors [3] - Shandong Gold with a net outflow of 142 million [3] - Chifeng Gold with a net outflow of 644 million [3]

Group 1: Industry Performance Overview - The Hong Kong stock market has seen significant performance reports from various sectors, including non-ferrous metals, insurance, and telecommunications, with leading companies in non-ferrous metals and insurance showing rapid growth, while telecommunications leaders maintain stable performance [1] - Resource stocks, particularly in the rare earth sector, have reported substantial increases in earnings, with Jinli Permanent Magnet achieving a revenue of 5.373 billion yuan, up 7.16%, and a net profit of 515 million yuan, up 161.81% [2][3] - Zijin Mining reported a revenue of 254.2 billion yuan, a 10.33% increase, and a net profit of 37.864 billion yuan, up 55.45%, with its gold business being a significant profit driver [2][3] Group 2: Insurance Sector Growth - Major insurance companies have reported rapid earnings growth, with China Pacific Insurance expecting a net profit increase of 40% to 60% for the first three quarters of 2025 [6] - China Life Insurance anticipates a net profit of approximately 156.785 billion to 177.689 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 50% to 70% [7] - New China Life Insurance expects a net profit of 29.986 billion to 34.122 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45% to 65% [7] Group 3: Telecommunications Sector Stability - The three major telecommunications operators, China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom, reported stable growth, with China Mobile achieving a revenue of 794.7 billion yuan, up 0.4%, and a profit of 115.4 billion yuan, up 4% [8][9] - China Telecom's revenue reached 396.998 billion yuan, a 0.6% increase, while China Unicom reported a revenue of 293 billion yuan, up 1% [9] Group 4: Retail Sector Losses - High-end retail giant Gao Xin Retail reported a projected net loss of 110 to 140 million yuan for the six months ending September 30, 2025, compared to a profit of 186 million yuan in the same period last year [10][11] - The loss is attributed to increased market competition and weak consumer demand, leading to a decline in average transaction value and revenue [11]

金价：回调藏富路，理性看调整 20251023 摘要 短期内，地缘政治风险缓解和前期超买导致黄金价格大幅回调，首个支 撑位预计在 3,950 美元左右，若跌破则可能下探至 3,700 美元。投资者 应关注市场情绪变化，避免追涨杀跌。 长期来看，全球政治经济不确定性及央行购金需求增加支撑金价，中长 期黄金价格仍具备上涨潜力。投资者不应轻易抛售黄金，可关注地缘政 治事件对金价的扰动。 黄金股与金价出现背离，金价上涨时黄金股未同步上涨，金价下跌时黄 金股跌停。投资者应避免情绪亢奋时追涨，关注长期趋势和基本面。 黄金股投资策略：避免追涨，在金价大幅下跌时关注估值较低的股票， 如资源量大的龙头公司山东黄金，以及估值低于 15 倍的标的，关注山 金国际等成长性公司。 金价回调周期受流动性挤兑和基本面影响，前者调整时间较短（约两 周），后者较长（调整约 4 周，盘整约 13 周）。量化指标可参考 CBOE 黄金 ETF 波动率和价格偏离均值标准差。 Q&A 最近黄金价格波动较大，市场对未来金价走势有何看法？ 近期黄金价格波动显著，尤其是 10 月 21 日国际金价和银价出现了近 12 年以 来的最大单日跌幅。黄金价格下跌了 ...