Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [1]. Core Viewpoints - The internal structure of the industry is showing differentiation, with a focus on mid-year performance feedback. The report highlights that the liquor sector, particularly high-end brands like Kweichow Moutai, is expected to recover in demand in the second half of the year, while the snack sector is underperforming [2][50]. - The report indicates that all sub-sectors within the food and beverage industry underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index during the review period, with the snack sector experiencing the largest decline of -3.25% [2][13]. - Approximately 55% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns during the review period, with notable gainers including Huangshi Group (+26.17%) and Huan Shang Huan (+14.18%) [16]. - The overall price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the food and beverage industry is approximately 20.35 times, which is below the five-year average of 34 times, indicating potential undervaluation [17][19]. Summary by Sections Market Review - From July 4 to July 17, 2025, the SW food and beverage industry index rose by 0.92%, ranking 22nd among Shenwan's primary industries, underperforming the CSI 300 index by about 0.75 percentage points [12]. - All sub-sectors underperformed the CSI 300 index, with the liquor sector showing the highest increase of 1.56% [13]. Key Data Tracking Liquor Sector - The price of Feitian Moutai increased to 1870 RMB per bottle, while the price of Wuliangye decreased to 900 RMB per bottle [22]. Seasonality and Demand - The beer and soft drink sectors are entering a consumption peak season, which is expected to boost demand [50]. Dairy Sector - The average price of fresh milk remained stable at 3.04 RMB per kilogram [36]. Meat Products - The average wholesale price of pork increased to 20.63 RMB per kilogram, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 1.98% [37]. Important News - The Ministry of Commerce announced a final ruling on anti-dumping investigations related to imported brandy from the EU, confirming a dumping margin of 27.7%-34.9% [40]. - In June, the price of alcoholic beverages decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, indicating a potential challenge for the liquor sector [41]. Company Announcements - Water Well announced a forecast for a 12.84% decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, while the company expects a 14.54% increase in sales volume [46]. - Yanjing Beer projected a 40%-50% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, reflecting strong performance in the beer sector [48]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-certainty stocks such as Kweichow Moutai (600519) and Hai Tian Wei Ye (603288), as well as Qingdao Beer (600600) and Yili Group (600887) for potential growth [51][52].

Core Viewpoint - Qingdao Beer is actively entering the bottled water market with its brand "Qingpi Youhuo," leveraging celebrity endorsement to boost sales and brand recognition [2][22]. Group 1: Market Entry and Strategy - Qingdao Beer announced the appointment of artist Zhang Yixing as the first spokesperson for its water brand "Qingpi Youhuo," which has garnered over 1 million shares on social media shortly after the announcement [2][5]. - The company has entered the competitive bottled water market, which is valued at over 900 billion [6]. - Qingpi Youhuo is positioned as a continuation of the quality established by Nestlé's water products, following Qingdao Beer's acquisition of Nestlé's water business in mainland China in August 2020 [9]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Business Diversification - The company reported a revenue of 32.138 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a 5% decline year-on-year, with decreases in beer production, sales, and revenue [17]. - In the first quarter of this year, Qingdao Beer achieved a revenue of 10.446 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.71 billion yuan, indicating modest growth and signs of operational recovery [18]. - The company is focusing on diversifying its business by integrating beverage operations and expanding into non-beer sectors, including the acquisition of a yellow wine company [17][19].

Core Viewpoint - The Qingdao International Beer Festival has transformed into a significant cultural and tourism event, showcasing Qingdao's unique charm and the importance of Tsingtao Beer as a cultural medium [1][2]. Group 1: Event Overview - The 35th Qingdao International Beer Festival has extended its duration from 24 days to one month and introduced a new venue in the old city, emphasizing the historical roots of the beer industry in Qingdao [2]. - The old city venue is expected to attract over 70.83 million visitors to the Shangjie Street area and 17.65 million to the Dabaodao area in 2024, reflecting the area's vibrant appeal [2]. Group 2: Cultural Significance - The Qingdao Beer Museum serves as a model for revitalizing industrial heritage, combining historical exhibits with immersive experiences, and has welcomed over 14 million visitors in the past 20 years [3]. - The museum has received multiple accolades, including recognition as a national model for industrial heritage protection and cultural innovation [3]. Group 3: Economic Impact - Tsingtao Beer is positioned as a key driver of urban cultural tourism integration, enhancing visitor experiences and contributing to economic vitality through innovative marketing and event strategies [4][5]. - The establishment of "White Beer Welcome Stations" at key transport hubs and interactive experiences in popular districts are part of a broader strategy to enhance consumer engagement and drive economic growth [4][5].

Group 1 - The 35th Qingdao Beer Festival at Laoshan venue will officially open on July 18 at Century Square Beer City, showcasing a grand summer celebration for domestic and international guests [1] - The Laoshan venue features a theme of "One City, Two Scenes," breaking away from the traditional single-style layout, with the South Square designed in a European style resembling an immersive beer garden [2] - The food experience at this year's festival has been significantly upgraded, introducing a new culinary showcase called "Chuan Street Zui Alley," which combines trendy and traditional food elements [2] Group 2 - The Central Square features a design concept of "Eastern Elegance," with cultural elements from the Qingdao Museum, including a beer bottle-themed installation and decorative red lanterns [2] - The festival will offer diverse performances, with peak days featuring nine specialized shows across genres such as rock and traditional Chinese music [2] - A high-tech interactive beer trading center, "Laoshan Chuan Street Zui Alley Beer Exchange," includes a 5-meter tall, 5-meter diameter 360-degree smart beer column, boasting a capacity of 15,000 jin, making it the most advanced and largest beer storage facility in the Qingdao area [2] Group 3 - Strict food safety controls will be implemented at the festival, with comprehensive monitoring from ingredient sourcing to processing, ensuring high-quality food from domestic and international suppliers [2]

Group 1 - The 35th Qingdao International Beer Festival will introduce a new venue, the Qingdao Old Town venue (Dabao Island), opening on July 18 [1] - The establishment of the "Qingdao Beer Exchange" will enhance the unique charm of Dabao Island, known for its vibrant food culture [1] - The beer exchange will feature a self-service beer dispensing system with prices adjusted every five minutes based on transaction volume, creating a dynamic pricing environment [3][8] Group 2 - A variety of beer flavors will be available, including classic Qingdao beers and fruit-flavored options, catering to diverse consumer preferences [2] - The beer exchange aims to create a unique consumer experience, leveraging the concept of "first launch economy" to drive significant consumption growth [10][13] - The design and presentation of the beer exchange incorporate elements of Qingdao beer culture, resulting in an unexpected and novel experience for consumers [14]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The report focuses on the food and beverage industry, analyzing new consumer demands, products, and channels [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments New Consumer Demands - The emerging consumer base primarily consists of Generation Z (post-1995), characterized by a heightened self-awareness and faster development compared to previous generations [1]. - Government policies aimed at boosting consumption have been introduced, including the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" and "Consumer Service System Benefit Action 2025" [2]. - Consumer behavior is diversifying, with Generation Z and affluent groups showing more optimistic consumption attitudes, while middle-class and rural older consumers exhibit weaker consumption willingness [3]. Changes in Consumption Patterns - There is a notable shift towards value-for-money products, with consumers increasingly prioritizing cost-effectiveness [4]. - The market has identified four potential growth categories: education, food and beverages, health products, and travel, while three risk categories include home appliances, tobacco, and certain consumables [3]. - The health consciousness among consumers is rising, leading to increased demand for health-related products, with the health food market projected to reach 836.2 billion by 2027, reflecting a 42% growth from 2022 [5]. Innovations in Products and Channels - Companies are innovating to meet health demands, introducing products like konjac, seaweed, and quail eggs [6]. - The focus on cost-effectiveness has led to supply chain optimization, reducing intermediaries to lower prices for consumers [7]. - The beverage market is witnessing significant growth in sugar-free teas and plant-based drinks, with growth rates of 19% and 32% respectively [8]. New Sales Channels - The rise of temporary retail channels has transformed the market, with the temporary retail industry expected to grow from 211 billion in 2019 to 1.5 trillion by 2027 [12]. - Membership warehouse stores are gaining traction, with the market size increasing from 20 billion in 2012 to 36.4 billion in 2023 [14]. - Online sales are rapidly growing, with a 56% year-on-year increase in online sales across nine categories, surpassing 120 billion in 2023 [18]. Recommendations and Risks - The report suggests focusing on new products, channels, and consumer demands as key investment themes, maintaining a strong rating for the food and beverage industry [20]. - Specific recommendations include companies like Three Squirrels, Yili, and Qingdao Beer, while highlighting the potential for profitability recovery in dairy and seasoning sectors [21][22]. - Risks include raw material price fluctuations and intensified industry competition [23]. Additional Important Insights - The emotional value of consumption is increasing, with service-related spending rising from 43% in 2020 to 46% in 2024 [5]. - The shift in consumer purchasing habits is leading to a more significant online presence for traditional products, including liquor, which is becoming a focus for major brands [17].

Core Insights - Qingdao Beer is leveraging technology and innovation to transform its production processes and enhance product offerings, positioning itself as a leader in the global beer market [2][18] - The company has achieved significant milestones, including being recognized as the top brand in the beer industry with a brand value of 280.36 billion yuan and entering the world's top 500 brands [2][11] Industry Overview - China is the largest beer producer and consumer globally, with an estimated production of approximately 35.21 million kiloliters in 2024 [2] - The beer industry in China is showcasing its international competitiveness through quality and brand reputation [2] Technological Advancements - Qingdao Beer has developed a digital ecosystem that enables rapid delivery of fresh beer, achieving a half-hour delivery time across nearly 1,000 stores in 33 cities [3][8] - The company has implemented a flexible production system that allows for on-demand manufacturing based on real-time data, significantly improving efficiency [6][10] Product Innovation - The introduction of fresh beer with a short shelf life of only 7 days has been a game-changer, allowing consumers to enjoy a product previously reserved for brewers [3][8] - Qingdao Beer has increased its production frequency of fresh beer by 100% this year, reflecting a growing consumer demand for fresh products [8][10] Sustainability and Industry Impact - Qingdao Beer has established itself as a "sustainable lighthouse factory," integrating traditional brewing with digital intelligence to enhance production efficiency [5][18] - The company has invested over 2 billion yuan in its smart industrial park, which has a production capacity of 1.2 million kiloliters, driving modernization in the beer industry [12][15] Market Performance - In 2024, Qingdao Beer achieved a total product sales volume of 7.54 million kiloliters, with mid-to-high-end products accounting for 72.7% of sales [11] - The company has successfully led product innovation in the Chinese beer market, introducing high-end products that set industry standards [10][12] Ecosystem Development - Qingdao Beer is fostering an integrated industrial ecosystem by collaborating with over 3,100 enterprises in Shandong province, enhancing the overall efficiency of the food and beverage sector [12][15] - The company is creating a unique beer-themed cultural tourism ecosystem, expanding its business model beyond traditional production [12][15]

Core Viewpoint - The Qingdao International Beer Festival has introduced a stock-style beer trading platform, enhancing the festival experience and attracting tourists to engage in beer trading [1][3]. Group 1: Beer Trading Concept - The newly established beer trading platform in Qingdao allows visitors to experience beer sales similar to stock trading, with prices fluctuating based on sales volume [3][6]. - Visitors can select their preferred beer flavors and observe real-time price changes on a display screen, enabling them to make informed purchasing decisions [6][10]. Group 2: Beer Offerings - Currently, the beer trading platform features 13 different types of beer, with plans to expand to 15-18 varieties during the festival [10]. - Fruit-flavored non-alcoholic beers, such as lychee and blueberry, are particularly popular, appealing to a wide demographic including children and women [10][12]. Group 3: Customer Experience - The platform provides guidance on pouring techniques to enhance the beer-drinking experience, emphasizing the importance of achieving the right amount of foam [8][10]. - An intelligent system monitors the beer's temperature, pressure, and liquid levels to ensure optimal serving conditions, contributing to a high-quality drinking experience [12].

Market Performance - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index increased by 0.82%, while the Shenwan Food and Beverage Index rose by 0.93% during the week of July 7-11, 2025 [1] Institutional Insights - Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao are recommended for their strong brand and channel capabilities in the high-end liquor segment, despite current demand pressures [2] - The beer sector is entering a peak season, with Qingdao Beer and Chongqing Beer highlighted for their growth potential [3] Macro Events - The State Administration for Market Regulation initiated a safety initiative for the meat industry, emphasizing the importance of food safety and quality [4] Consumer Price Index - In June 2025, the national consumer price index rose by 0.1% year-on-year, with food prices decreasing by 0.3% and non-food prices increasing by 0.1% [5] Industry Trends - The demand for mass-market food products is expected to stabilize and grow in the second half of 2025, with new consumption trends in healthy snacks and beverages [6] - The "Civilian Liquor Era" is emerging, with companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Wuliangye developing lower-alcohol products to attract younger consumers [7][8] Company Developments - Guizhou Moutai held a channel partner meeting to discuss market expansion and service improvement [11] - Wuliangye Group established a new energy management company, indicating diversification into battery sales and energy management [12] Financial Forecasts - Major liquor companies are experiencing pressure on profit margins, with over half reporting declines in profits and revenues in the first half of 2025 [10] - The industry is undergoing significant executive turnover, reflecting strategic shifts in response to market challenges [10] Industry Data - The price of premium liquor is currently at 438.00 yuan per bottle, reflecting market dynamics [19] - The retail prices of major dairy products and the costs of seasoning raw materials are being monitored for trends [27][29]

Core Viewpoint - Qingdao Beer emphasizes quality as the foundation of its development, showcasing its transformation in the digital age through meticulous control and management of the brewing process [1] Group 1: Quality Management - Qingdao Beer has established a leading "exclusive" malt factory to enhance the quality of its beer, utilizing a "barley fingerprint database" and innovative malt flavor mapping technology [3] - The company employs a rigorous quality control process, including over 1800 quality inspection projects and precise temperature control to ensure the quality of each beer [3] - A new digital quality management model has been introduced, encompassing standardized control systems and a digital management platform to enhance consumer experience [4] Group 2: Technological Innovation - Qingdao Beer has been recognized for its scientific advancements, winning the National Science and Technology Progress Award four times, highlighting its commitment to research and development [5] - The introduction of "Qingdao Beer Original" emphasizes freshness and quality, with a shelf life of only 7 days, utilizing smart supply chain monitoring for optimal delivery [5] Group 3: Consumer Engagement - The company is adapting to the preferences of younger consumers by creating a "Beer+" ecosystem that allows for personalized product customization for various occasions [6][7] - New product lines, such as the A series, are designed to meet specific consumer scenarios, enhancing the overall brand experience [7] Group 4: Sustainability Initiatives - Qingdao Beer is leading the industry in sustainability efforts, including the use of lightweight bottles and exploring new models for wastewater value sharing [8] - The company is committed to rapid responses to market changes, ensuring that quality transformation aligns with consumer demands [8]