Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's 2024 performance is under pressure due to a sharp rise in gold prices, with expectations for a performance turnaround in 2025 [7] - The company reported a revenue of 56.79 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 20.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.95 billion yuan, down 11.95% year-on-year [7] - The report anticipates that consumer demand for gold jewelry will gradually recover if gold prices stabilize, with a potential improvement starting in the second quarter of 2025 [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2022 was 63.01 billion yuan, increasing to 71.44 billion yuan in 2023, but projected to decline to 56.79 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.7 billion yuan in Q4 2024, a decrease of 30% year-on-year, primarily due to suppressed consumer demand from rising gold prices [7] - The company plans to expand its market presence with new store formats and themes, aiming to enhance its retail strategy [7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit in 2024 is 1.95 billion yuan, with adjustments made for 2025 and 2026 net profit estimates to 2.13 billion yuan and 2.28 billion yuan respectively [7] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for 2025 and 2026 is projected to be 13.4 and 12.5 times, respectively, indicating an attractive valuation phase for the company [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's 2024 performance is under pressure due to a sharp rise in gold prices, with expectations for a performance turnaround in 2025 [1][7] - The company reported a revenue of 56.79 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 20.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.95 billion yuan, down 11.95% year-on-year [7][8] - The report anticipates that consumer demand for gold jewelry will gradually recover if gold prices stabilize, with a potential improvement starting in the second quarter of 2025 [7][8] Financial Performance Summary - **2024 Financials**: Revenue of 56.79 billion yuan, net profit of 1.95 billion yuan, and a diluted EPS of 3.73 yuan [1][7] - **2025 and 2026 Projections**: Expected net profits of 2.13 billion yuan and 2.28 billion yuan respectively, with a P/E ratio of 13.4 and 12.5 for 2025 and 2026 [1][7] - **Market Position**: The company has a total of 5,838 marketing outlets, including 197 direct stores, and is actively expanding its market presence despite current challenges [7][8]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 03 月 16 日 [Table_Title] 呼和浩特发布育儿补贴细则，金价再创新高 [Table_Title2] 社服零售行业周报 [Table_Summary] ► 呼和浩特发布育儿补贴细则，利好母婴消费品 3 月 13 日，内蒙古呼和浩特卫健委发布落实《关于促进人口 集聚推动人口高质量发展的实施意见》育儿补贴项目实施细 则及服务流程。发放育儿补贴实施细则如下：生育一孩一次 性发放育儿补贴 10000 元；生育二孩发放育儿补贴 50000 元， 按照每年 10000 元发放，直至孩子 5 周岁；生育三孩及以上发 放育儿补贴 100000 元，按照每年 10000 元发放，直至孩子 10 周岁。 据中国政府网、财联社，2025 年政府工作报告中明确提出， 制定促进生育政策，发放育儿补贴；3 月 7 日，国家卫健委主 任雷海潮指出，今年将发放育儿补贴，国家卫健委正在会同 有关部门，起草相关的育儿补贴的操作方案。育儿补贴政策 的出台是提振生育率的重要举措，我们认为未来地方育儿补 贴政策有望持续出台，利好母婴消费品，相关受益标的包括 孩子王、爱 ...

Investment Ratings - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Xiangxin Technology (002965) and other companies such as Baoshan (03998) and Haotaitai (603848) [20][38][40] Core Insights - The report highlights the robust growth potential in the new energy vehicle sector, with Xiangxin Technology's clients like Geely and BYD targeting significant sales increases by 2025 [35][36] - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic partnerships in enhancing technological capabilities, particularly in robotics and smart manufacturing [36][37] - The report notes the ongoing transformation in the real estate market towards higher quality and sustainability, indicating a shift from quantity expansion to quality improvement [27][28] Summary by Sections Economic Environment - The government continues a "moderately loose" monetary policy, with potential adjustments in reserve requirements and interest rates based on economic conditions [24] - Fiscal policies are becoming more proactive, with a target deficit rate of around 4%, indicating a willingness to leverage debt for economic growth [25] Industry Trends - The wind power sector is experiencing a positive demand outlook, with significant growth expected in both onshore and offshore wind installations globally [3][7] - The report indicates a recovery in the wind turbine industry, with price stabilization and profitability improvements expected from 2024 onwards [7] Company-Specific Insights - Xiangxin Technology is positioned well in the new energy vehicle supply chain, with a focus on structural components and battery technology [35][36] - Baoshan is launching new outdoor apparel lines that balance fashion and functionality, targeting diverse consumer needs [10][32] - Haotaitai is forming a joint venture to enhance its smart home ecosystem, leveraging partnerships to drive innovation in digital living solutions [40][41]

公司研究 2025.03.11 老凤祥（ 600612） 公司点评报告 24 年金价持续上涨公司表现承压，25 年降幅已现收窄趋势期待后续拐点 方 正 证 券 研 究 所 证 券 研 究 报 告 分析师 周昕 登记编号：S1220524100007 联系人 廖捷 《老凤祥(600612)：24H1 整体表现平稳，毛利 率提升&费用率稳健带动盈利能力改善》 2024.08.30 《老凤祥(600612)：黄金消费景气驱动公司业 绩亮眼增长，渠道有望保持较快扩张步伐》 2024.05.04 《老凤祥(600612)：23 年业绩稳健增长，金价 上 行 推 动 黄 金 消 费 仍 具 较 高 景 气 度 》 2024.03.05 事件：公司发布 24 年业绩快报。 | | | | 公 司 信 | 息 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 行业 | | 钟表珠宝 | | 最新收盘价(人民币/元) | | 51.05 | | 总市值(亿)(元) | | 267.05 | | 52 周最高/最低价(元) | | 86.19/47.10 | 历史表现 -36% -25% -14% -3% 8% 24/3/11 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company is experiencing significant pressure on its performance in 2024, with a projected revenue of 56.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 20.5%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.95 billion yuan, down 11.95% year-on-year [1][3]. - The report highlights a weak consumption environment and rising gold prices as key factors impacting the company's performance, with domestic gold jewelry consumption expected to drop by 24.7% in 2024 [1]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its market presence through the expansion of themed stores and upgrading retail store images, despite a net decrease in total marketing outlets [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company anticipates a net profit margin of 3.4%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin for Q4 2024 is projected at 4.1%, up 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company's revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been slightly adjusted, with expected net profits of 1.95 billion, 2.10 billion, and 2.26 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 14, 13, and 12 [3][4]. - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including revenue growth rates of -20.5% for 2024, followed by a recovery of 4.7% in 2025 and 7.2% in 2026 [4][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is leveraging the trend of domestic "trendy goods" consumption, launching new product lines such as "Dragon's Affection" gold and jade jewelry, aiming to create a series of "fashionable new classics" [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of optimizing store layouts and enhancing brand positioning through various types of stores, including "Treasure Gold" and "Fengxiang Celebration" [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company is experiencing significant pressure on its performance in 2024, with a projected revenue of 56.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 20.5%, and a net profit of 1.95 billion yuan, down 11.95% year-on-year [1][3]. - The decline in performance is attributed to a weak market environment and rising gold prices, leading to a 24.7% drop in domestic gold jewelry consumption [1]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its market presence through theme store layouts and upgrading retail store images, despite a net decrease in marketing outlets [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company expects a revenue of 56.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -20.5% [4]. - The net profit for 2024 is projected at 1.95 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 11.95% compared to the previous year [4]. - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 is estimated at 3.4%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 is expected to show a revenue of 4.21 billion yuan, down 55.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 170 million yuan, down 30.4% year-on-year [1]. Market Strategy - The company is actively developing new product lines themed around "heritage, celebration, and rebirth," aiming to capture new consumer growth points in the domestic market [3]. - The company plans to optimize its layout through various types of stores, enhancing brand positioning and consumer engagement [3].

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, despite rising gold prices, the revenue and net profit of Lao Feng Xiang have declined significantly, indicating challenges in the retail jewelry market and the company's performance [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Lao Feng Xiang reported a revenue of 56.793 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 20.50% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.950 billion yuan, down 11.95% year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.212 billion yuan and a net profit of 174 million yuan, representing decreases of 55.05% and 30.4% respectively compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2: Market Environment - The decline in performance is attributed to a combination of a challenging market environment and rising gold prices, which have led to weak consumer demand for gold jewelry [2] - In 2024, China's gold jewelry consumption was 532.02 tons, a decrease of 24.69% year-on-year [2] - The third quarter of 2024 marked a turning point for Lao Feng Xiang, with revenue and net profit dropping by 41.89% and 46.20% respectively compared to the previous year [2] Group 3: Sales Strategy and Challenges - The slowdown in retail sales has affected the enthusiasm of franchisees and distributors to purchase products during ordering sessions, prompting the company to implement promotional discounts [3] - The company experienced a net decrease of 166 franchise stores, indicating challenges in maintaining its retail network [5] - Lao Feng Xiang's product structure, primarily focused on gold jewelry, has made it more vulnerable to the impacts of rising gold prices compared to competitors with different sales strategies [3] Group 4: Future Outlook and Initiatives - The company is actively seeking to improve its operational quality by learning from successful competitors and enhancing its market presence through themed stores [4] - Despite plans to upgrade retail store themes and expand market reach, the company has faced difficulties due to weak gold jewelry consumption [4]

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total operating revenue of ¥5,679,287.65 million, a decrease of 20.50% compared to the previous year[4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was ¥194,980.17 million, down 11.95% year-on-year[4] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was ¥180,345.61 million, a decline of 16.34% compared to the previous year[6] - The basic earnings per share were ¥3.7273, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 11.95%[6] - The weighted average return on equity decreased by 4.33 percentage points to 16.20%[4] Assets and Equity - The company's total assets at the end of the reporting period were ¥2,273,114.24 million, a decrease of 6.59% from the beginning of the period[6] - The equity attributable to shareholders increased by 7.98% to ¥1,249,808.83 million[6] Market Presence - The number of marketing outlets reached 5,838, with a net increase of 10 direct stores but a decrease of 166 franchise stores[7] Non-Recurring Gains - The company received non-recurring gains of ¥14,634.56 million, an increase of 149.48% compared to the previous year due to higher fiscal subsidies[6] Market Trends - The decline in performance was attributed to weak gold jewelry consumption, with a reported 24.69% drop in gold jewelry consumption in China[7]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in both revenue and net profit for the year 2024, attributed to weak consumer demand in the gold jewelry sector and rising gold prices [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved total revenue of 56.793 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 20.5% [1] - Net profit for the year was 1.95 billion yuan, down 11.95% compared to the previous year [1] - Basic earnings per share were reported at 3.73 yuan [1] Industry Context - The decline in performance is linked to insufficient global economic growth momentum and domestic effective demand [1] - The continuous rise in gold prices, reaching historical highs, has led to weakened consumption in the gold jewelry market [1]