Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5][8]. Core Insights - The black industrial chain has experienced significant price fluctuations, with the CITIC Steel Index rising by 7.55% during the week, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 5.86 percentage points [1][85]. - The report highlights a rebound in steel prices due to a reversal in inventory cycles, driven by strong domestic and external demand in the first half of the year, although uncertainties remain due to tariff frictions [2][6]. - The report anticipates that the implementation of "anti-involution" policies will accelerate the recovery of industry profitability, with a focus on reducing production capacity [2][6]. Supply Analysis - Daily molten iron production has decreased slightly to 242.2 thousand tons, with a marginal decline in long-process production [11][14]. - The capacity utilization rate for domestic blast furnaces is reported at 90.8%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points week-on-week [14][20]. Inventory Analysis - Total steel inventory has slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points, with social inventory increasing while steel mill inventory has significantly declined [20][22]. - The social inventory of five major steel products stands at 9.271 million tons, up 0.5% week-on-week but down 27.4% year-on-year [22][27]. Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption of five major steel products has shown a slight decline of 0.2% week-on-week, indicating resilient demand despite the overall weakness [36][46]. - Weekly average transaction volume for construction steel has increased by 22.4% compared to the previous week, reaching 115 thousand tons [36][37]. Raw Material Analysis - Iron ore prices have strengthened, with the Platts 62% Fe iron ore price index rising to $102.6 per ton, a week-on-week increase of 2.4% [45][54]. - The report notes a decrease in Australian iron ore shipments by 10.5% week-on-week, while Brazilian shipments increased by 17.4% [54][68]. Price and Profit Analysis - The report indicates a significant improvement in immediate gross margins for steel products, with the Myspic comprehensive steel price index rising by 4.2% week-on-week [66][67]. - Current prices for rebar in Beijing and Shanghai have increased by 7.7% and 5.5% respectively, reflecting a positive trend in the market [67][70]. Key Stocks - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including: - Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes (Buy) - Nanjing Steel (Buy) - Hualing Steel (Buy) - Baosteel (Buy) - Jiuli Special Materials (Buy) - New Steel (Increase Holding) [8][89].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" for the steel industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [6]. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is experiencing a warming sentiment combined with cost support, leading to a strong performance in steel prices. The report notes that the prices for five major steel products have shown weekly increases, with rebar prices reaching 3,316 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.83% increase week-on-week [1][2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to introduce a work plan aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries, including steel, which is expected to optimize supply structure and eliminate outdated production capacity [3]. - The report suggests that the steel industry is likely to see a long-term recovery in both valuation and performance, driven by improved profitability and a reduction in production capacity in certain regions [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - As of July 18, 2025, the prices for five major steel products are as follows: rebar at 3,316 CNY/ton, wire rod at 3,629 CNY/ton, hot-rolled coil at 3,345 CNY/ton, cold-rolled coil at 3,775 CNY/ton, and medium plate at 3,425 CNY/ton, with weekly changes of +0.83%, +0.76%, +1.47%, +1.16%, and +0.91% respectively [1][15]. - The total production of the five major products reached 8.6819 million tons, a decrease of 45,300 tons week-on-week [1]. - The average daily molten iron output from 247 steel enterprises was 2.4244 million tons, an increase of 26,300 tons week-on-week, with a blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 90.89%, up by 0.99 percentage points [1][18]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking (a) Production Data - The report highlights that the production data indicates a slight increase in iron output and a recovery in electric arc furnace operation rates, suggesting a stabilization in the industry despite seasonal demand weakness [2][18]. (b) Consumption Volume of Five Major Steel Products - The total consumption of the five major products was 8.7011 million tons, reflecting a decrease of 29,600 tons week-on-week, with specific changes in consumption for rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and medium plate [1][39]. (c) Inventory Situation - The total steel inventory stood at 13.3766 million tons, a decrease of 19,200 tons week-on-week, with social inventory increasing by 81,000 tons to 9.2211 million tons, while steel mill inventory decreased by 100,200 tons to 4.1555 million tons [1][51]. (d) Profitability Situation - The average molten iron cost for 114 steel mills was reported at 2,256 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week. The gross profit per ton for high furnace rebar, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil was +171 CNY/ton, +146 CNY/ton, and +32 CNY/ton respectively, with slight variations noted [1][4]. 3. Stock Market Performance - The steel index closed at 2,294.69 points, with a weekly increase of 0.36%, while the overall A-share index rose by 1.40% [4][6]. - The report indicates that the overall valuation of the steel sector remains low, with specific companies showing potential for recovery in both valuation and profitability [10].

Group 1 - The A-share steel sector experienced significant movement, with Liugang Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit up, indicating strong investor interest [1] - Shengde Xintai saw an increase of nearly 6%, reflecting positive market sentiment towards steel stocks [1] - Other companies such as Shougang Co., Hualing Steel, Fangda Special Steel, and New Steel Co. also experienced gains, suggesting a broader rally in the steel industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry has seen a profit rebound in the first half of the year, driven by cost reductions, export boosts, and proactive cost-cutting measures by companies, with self-discipline in production being a key factor for profit improvement [1][4][6]. Group 1: Company Performance - Several listed steel companies have issued positive performance forecasts for the first half of the year, with notable increases in net profits: - Shougang Co. expects a net profit of 642 million to 672 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.62%-70.22% [2] - Minmetals Development anticipates a net profit of 107 million yuan, up 111% [2] - Liugang Co. projects a net profit of 340 million to 400 million yuan, a staggering increase of 530%-641% [2] - Fangda Special Steel expects a net profit of 380 million to 430 million yuan, an increase of 133.33%-164.03% [2] - Other companies like Xinyu Steel, Shandong Steel, and others forecast a turnaround in profitability for the first half of 2025 [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The steel industry is experiencing a reduction in production and structural adjustments, with weak steel prices prevailing [2][4]. - The overall profit for the black metal smelting and rolling industry from January to May reached 31.69 billion yuan, better than the 29.19 billion yuan for the entire year of 2024 [4]. - The self-discipline in production among steel companies is seen as a core factor for profit improvement, despite ongoing supply-demand structural contradictions [4][5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The outlook for steel prices in the second half of the year is uncertain, with expectations of limited upward movement due to weak domestic demand and potential challenges in maintaining high export levels [6][7]. - Analysts suggest that self-discipline in production will remain a critical variable influencing price trends, with a focus on quality and efficiency rather than merely high production volumes [7][8]. - The industry is urged to enhance integration, improve industry concentration, and phase out inefficient production capacities to achieve high-quality development [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metal industries [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply-side reform in China is expected to break the deflationary cycle and create investment opportunities in the steel and non-ferrous metal sectors [1][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of "supply constraints" to manage the supply-demand balance and mitigate economic downturn risks [6][12] - The steel industry is facing severe overcapacity, with state-owned enterprises holding a significant market share, which facilitates the implementation of administrative measures to control production [6][28] Summary by Sections 1. Supply-Side Reform and Economic Management - The socialist market economy in China allows for effective macroeconomic control, contrasting with the cyclical issues faced in capitalist economies [12][13] - Historical experiences show that demand stimulus alone is insufficient to resolve deep-seated deflationary pressures [14][15] - The supply-side reform initiated in 2016 has proven successful in stabilizing prices and improving corporate profitability [21][22] 2. Steel Industry Analysis - The steel industry has been in a state of oversupply from 2007 to 2024, with crude steel production increasing from 490 million tons to 1.01 billion tons, while apparent consumption has not kept pace [28][29] - The production capacity utilization rates for rebar and wire rod are expected to decline from around 70% to 50% due to weak real estate demand [33][34] - The concentration of production among state-owned enterprises is high, with central state-owned enterprises accounting for approximately 63% of total production in 2024 [38][39] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three categories of investment targets: profit recovery, stable profit with valuation repair, and stable high-dividend stocks [51] - Specific companies recommended for profit recovery include Liugang Co., Taigang Stainless Steel, and Shandong Iron and Steel, with projected annualized PE ratios improving significantly under favorable conditions [51]

Group 1: Overall Performance of Central Enterprises - 79 central enterprise-controlled listed companies reported positive performance forecasts for the first half of the year, with 32 companies showing year-on-year net profit growth, 22 companies turning losses into profits, and 25 companies reducing losses [1] - 19 central enterprise-controlled listed companies expect a net profit increase of over 100%, with several companies achieving significant turnaround from losses [1] Group 2: Power Sector Performance - Huayin Power, a subsidiary of China Datang Group, is expected to lead the growth with a projected net profit of 180 million to 220 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of up to 44 times due to increased power generation and reduced fuel costs [2] - Major investments in the power grid and ultra-high voltage construction by State Grid and Southern Power Grid are expected to drive growth in related companies, with Guodian Nanzi and Baobian Electric forecasting net profit increases of 171.89% to 225.66% and 229.15%, respectively [2] Group 3: Electric Equipment and Cable Industry - Baobian Electric's profit increase is attributed to enhanced market development and increased project orders, while Baoshan Co. anticipates a net profit growth of 167.98% to 301.98% due to optimized sales policies and improved internal management [3] - New Energy Taishan is expected to turn losses into profits in the first half of the year, reflecting a positive trend in the electric cable sector [3] Group 4: Shipbuilding and Rare Earth Industries - The shipbuilding sector is experiencing significant growth, with companies like China Shipbuilding, China Power, and China Heavy Industry expecting net profit increases exceeding 200% due to effective management and increased delivery of civilian ships [5] - The rare earth industry is also thriving, with companies like China Rare Earth and Guangsheng Nonferrous Metals expected to turn losses into profits, driven by rising prices of rare earth products [4] Group 5: Turnaround Companies - 22 central enterprise-controlled listed companies are expected to turn losses into profits, with quality improvement and efficiency enhancement being key factors for their performance recovery [6] - Companies like Zhongnan Co. and Taiji Co. have reported successful turnarounds due to strengthened management and cost control measures [6][7] Group 6: Management and Efficiency Improvements - Many companies achieving year-on-year growth or reduced losses attribute their success to ongoing quality improvement and efficiency enhancement initiatives [7] - Companies are focusing on optimizing resource allocation, controlling costs, and improving operational efficiency as critical drivers of performance growth [7]

Group 1 - The steel industry has shown significant improvement in profitability in the first half of the year due to falling raw material costs and cost-cutting measures [2][4][5] - Despite the overall recovery in performance, the steel sector experienced a collective pullback in stock prices on July 15, with notable declines in companies such as China Iron Titanium and Chongqing Steel [2][4] - A total of 24 A-share steel companies have released mid-year performance forecasts for 2025, with 19 reporting substantial profit improvements, including several companies achieving double or triple-digit profit growth [4][5] Group 2 - The steel industry faces challenges from a sluggish real estate market, limited infrastructure investment, and increased export pressure, leading to a significant decline in steel prices and ongoing profitability pressure [4][6] - Companies are addressing demand contraction by eliminating outdated production capacity, optimizing product structures, and enhancing product value, which has contributed to profit recovery [5][6] - The current supply-demand dynamics in the steel industry are improving, with major steel companies announcing production cuts under the "anti-involution" policy, which is expected to strengthen supply contraction [6]

证券代码：600782 证券简称：新钢股份 公告编号：2025-053 新余钢铁股份有限公司 2025年半年度业绩预告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 一、本期业绩预告情况 （一）业绩预告期间 2025 年 1 月 1 日至 2025 年 6 月 30 日 （二）业绩预告情况 经财务部门初步测算，预计 2025 年半年度实现归属于母公司所 有者的净利润 8,900 万元到 11,200 万元，与上年同期（法定披露数 据）相比，实现扭亏为盈。 预计 2025 年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损 益后的净利润为-7,600 万元到-5,300 万元。 二、上年同期经营业绩和财务状况 本期业绩预告适用于《上海证券交易所股票上市规则》第5.1.1 条中应当进行预告的情形，"（二）净利润实现扭亏为盈"。 经财务部门初步测算，新余钢铁股份有限公司（以下简称"公 司"） 预计 2025 年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润 8,900 万元到 11,200 万元，与上年同期（法定披露数据）相比， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the steel industry, suggesting to focus on the bottom repair opportunities in steel stocks [1]. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently experiencing a dual weakness in supply and demand during the off-season, but improved market sentiment has led to an increase in steel prices [2][3]. - The overall profitability of the steel industry has improved in the first half of the year due to a significant decline in raw material prices, which has positively impacted steel production costs [3][9]. - The "anti-involution" policy proposed by the Central Financial Committee is expected to enhance market conditions for the steel industry, leading to both valuation and performance recovery in the long term [4][10]. Industry Data Summary Production Data - As of July 11, the production of five major steel products totaled 8.7272 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 124,000 tons [1]. - The average daily molten iron output from 247 steel enterprises was 2.3981 million tons, down 10,400 tons week-on-week, with a blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 89.9%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points [1][2]. Consumption Data - The apparent consumption of the five major steel products was 8.7307 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 121,900 tons [1][2]. - The consumption changes for specific products included a decrease of 33,700 tons for rebar, 29,100 tons for wire rod, and 18,600 tons for hot-rolled products [1]. Inventory Situation - Total steel inventory was reported at 13.3958 million tons, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 3,500 tons [1]. - Social inventory decreased by 21,200 tons to 9.1401 million tons, while steel mill inventory increased by 17,700 tons to 4.2557 million tons [1]. Profitability Data - The average cost of molten iron for 114 steel mills was stable at 2,256 yuan per ton [1]. - As of July 11, the gross profit per ton for high furnace rebar was 196 yuan, hot-rolled sheets 142 yuan, and cold-rolled sheets 31 yuan, with week-on-week increases of 9 yuan, 16 yuan, and 20 yuan respectively [1][3].

Core Points - The company announced a cash dividend of 0.01 CNY per share for the fiscal year 2024, approved during the annual shareholders' meeting on May 20, 2025 [1][2] - The dividend distribution will be based on a total share capital of 3,182,542,149 shares [1] - Key dates for the dividend distribution include the record date on July 17, 2025, the ex-dividend date on July 18, 2025, and the payment date also on July 18, 2025 [1] Dividend Distribution Details - The cash dividend will be distributed to all shareholders registered with the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited, Shanghai Branch, as of the record date [1] - The company will handle the cash dividend distribution for shares held by its controlling shareholder, Xinyu Steel Group Co., Ltd. [2] - Tax implications for shareholders include a 20% tax rate for those holding shares for one month or less, a 10% tax rate for holdings between one month and one year, and no tax for holdings over one year [2][3] Tax Withholding Information - The company will withhold a 10% corporate income tax on dividends paid to QFII investors, resulting in a net cash dividend of 0.009 CNY per share after tax [3] - Shareholders seeking to benefit from tax treaties must apply to the relevant tax authorities after receiving dividends [3] Contact Information - For inquiries regarding the dividend distribution, shareholders can contact the company's secretariat at 0790-6292961 [3]