Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [9] Core Views - The expectation of overseas interest rate cuts is strengthening, which may lead to a corresponding adjustment in domestic monetary policy. The reserve requirement ratio is expected to trend downward, positively impacting short-term steel prices. Historical data shows that after 10 instances of reserve requirement cuts since 2020, the average increase in rebar prices was 20, 42, 45, 41, and 26 CNY/ton in the first five trading days post-cut, indicating a strong likelihood of price increases in the short term [2][6]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - Steel inventory is being reduced smoothly, and there is a positive outlook for the real estate sector, leading to a slight increase in steel prices. However, the profitability of steel companies has not shown significant improvement due to sustained high prices of iron ore and coke. It is expected that steel production will continue to decline as companies proactively reduce inventory and conduct maintenance towards the end of the year. Demand may also weaken seasonally [4][5]. - The apparent consumption of five major steel products increased by 0.12% year-on-year but decreased by 0.81% month-on-month. The production of five major steel products decreased by 2.20% year-on-year but increased by 0.74% month-on-month, with daily molten iron production dropping to 2.3468 million tons [4][5]. Price Trends - Recent price trends show that Shanghai rebar has risen to 3,260 CNY/ton, an increase of 30 CNY/ton, while hot-rolled steel has reached 3,270 CNY/ton, up by 20 CNY/ton. The estimated profit for rebar is -134 CNY/ton, with a lagging cost profit of -99 CNY/ton [5]. Long-term Outlook - The renewed overseas interest rate cut cycle is expected to stabilize medium-term demand expectations for manufacturing. Although direct export demand for steel is limited, there is significant indirect demand through downstream sectors such as machinery, automotive, and home appliances. If overseas manufacturing recovers, it could stabilize steel manufacturing demand. The demand side for steel is expected to remain stable in 2026, driven by reduced production and improved cost structures [7][8].

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.01 渐近冬储 盈利回调 [Table_Industry] 钢铁 ——钢铁行业周度更新报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 李鹏飞(分析师) | 010-83939783 | lipengfei2@gtht.com | S0880519080003 | | 刘彦奇(分析师) | 021-23219391 | liuyanqi@gtht.com | S0880525040007 | | 魏雨迪(分析师) | 021-38674763 | weiyudi@gtht.com | S0880520010002 | | 王宏玉(分析师) | 021-38038343 | wanghongyu@gtht.com | S0880523060005 | 本报告导读： 需求有望逐步触底；供给端即便不考虑供给政策，目前行业亏损时间已经较长，供 给的市场化出清已开始出现，我们预期钢铁行业基本面有望逐步修复。而若供给政 策落地，行业供给的收缩速度更快，行业上行的进展将更快展开。 ...

证券日报网讯新钢股份（600782）11月27日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司在超低排放改造方 面的社会经济效益主要体现在以下几个方面：一是周边居民满意度提高，可见蓝天白天，员工作业环境 大幅改善；二是通过超低排放改造，实现二氧化硫等排放物排放量的大幅度降低，有助于改善区域环境 质量，减少空气污染，对提升企业环境责任和公众形象具有积极影响；三是超低排放的实现提升了新钢 股份产品的绿色竞争力，低碳低污染产品有助于开拓更广阔的市场和客户群体；四是通过技术改造，在 节能减排的同时，有效提升资源利用效率，一定程度上实现成本的优化。 ...

格隆汇11月27日丨新钢股份(600782.SH)在投资者互动平台表示，公司暂时没有回购计划。 ...

永钢7月下旬螺纹上调170、普线和盘螺上调220。现螺3950，高线4080，盘螺4080，7-3旬订货比例维持 全折。 中天7月下旬螺纹上调220、普线和盘螺上调250。现螺纹3950，高线4080，盘螺4080，7-3旬订货比例： 螺纹6折（上期8折），线盘7折（上期8折）。（上海有色网 张轶超） 沙钢本期调价强势上涨220，钢厂挂牌价格3950，杭州市场库提成本3900，厂提成本3850，对上期螺纹 无补。此番调价明显超出市场预期，昨日收盘杭州市场报价3780-3800，期螺更是大幅走弱，即钢厂基 于贸易商倒挂100-120的情况下依然大幅拉涨，对贸易商情绪冲击较大。站在钢厂的角度，上期螺纹出 厂价格3730（库提成本3680），而市场7月中旬实际平均售价达3760，贸易商平均盈利超80，因此本期 价格的大幅上调一方面是对上一期价格的追补，另一方面才是对于本旬市场价格的领涨（两旬平均出厂 价格为3840）。钢厂上调价格后，华东市场表现混乱，申特钢厂甚至发布封盘文件，要求贸易商停止销 售所有申特资源，同时钢厂也停止对于各代理发货；杭州市场报价更是五花八门（沙钢3780-3900）， 部分贸易商依然存有试探 ...

Core Insights - The steel sector experienced a slight decline of 0.0% on November 24, with Sansteel Mingguang leading the losses [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3836.77, up 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12585.08, up 0.37% [1] Steel Sector Performance - Major steel stocks showed mixed performance, with notable gainers including: - Maanshan Iron & Steel (600808) at 3.87, up 2.11% with a trading volume of 562,600 shares and a turnover of 217 million yuan - Nanjing Steel (600282) at 5.60, up 1.63% with a trading volume of 401,900 shares and a turnover of 225 million yuan - Wujin Stainless Steel (603878) at 9.43, up 1.51% with a trading volume of 137,400 shares and a turnover of 128 million yuan [1] - Conversely, Sansteel Mingguang (002110) fell to 4.21, down 2.09% with a trading volume of 242,500 shares and a turnover of 103 million yuan [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The steel sector saw a net inflow of 120 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 131 million yuan [2] - Specific stock capital flows included: - Baogang Group (600010) with a net outflow of 57.72 million yuan from institutional investors - Chongqing Steel (601005) with a net inflow of 29.54 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Retail investors showed a net inflow of 11.73 million yuan overall, indicating a mixed sentiment in the market [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and New Steel [8]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a short-term adjustment, with the market showing signs of stabilization after recent fluctuations. The overall valuation of major companies has improved but remains rational [2][4]. - The report highlights that the fourth quarter is likely to see a slowdown in economic activity compared to the previous quarters, but the risk of a significant downturn is low. Measures such as the implementation of a 500 billion yuan policy financial tool are expected to support the economy [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side adjustments in the steel industry, noting that administrative measures could accelerate the return of industry profits to average levels [2][4]. - The report identifies several companies as undervalued with strong safety margins, suggesting potential investment opportunities [2]. Supply Analysis - Daily molten iron production has decreased by 0.7 thousand tons to 236.2 thousand tons, while steel production has increased, with rebar production growing faster than hot-rolled products [12]. - The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 88.6%, with a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous week [18]. Inventory Analysis - The total inventory of steel has decreased by 3.0% week-on-week, with a significant year-on-year increase of 26.7% [24][26]. - The report notes that the inventory reduction is consistent across both social and mill inventories, indicating a tightening supply situation [24][26]. Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption of the five major steel products has improved, with a week-on-week increase of 3.9% [51]. - The average weekly transaction volume for construction steel has increased by 0.3% [40][41]. Raw Material Analysis - Iron ore prices have strengthened, with increased shipments from Australia and Brazil, while port inventories have slightly decreased [48][60]. - The report indicates that the iron ore price index is currently at 104.8 USD/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.1% [60]. Price and Profit Analysis - The report notes a slight increase in steel prices, with the comprehensive steel price index rising by 0.5% week-on-week [74]. - The current profit margins for long-process steel products remain negative, with costs for rebar and hot-rolled products reported at 3,556 yuan/ton and 3,782 yuan/ton, respectively [74][80].

新华财经北京11月21日电 中经社经济分析报告编辑部21日发布智库报告《沙钢："智改数转"加快推进钢铁行业新型工业化》（以下简称"报告"）指出， 在"双碳"目标和市场需求变革的驱动下，钢铁行业正经历从"规模扩张"到"质量效益"的深刻调整。面对长期存在的"三高三低"困境，人工智能等数智技术的 突破，正为钢铁行业重塑生产与管理模式提供历史性机遇。 报告认为，新型工业化以其高科技创新、高效率资源配置与高绿色成色，定义了未来工业的新范式。在此进程中，数智化转型以其对降本、增效、提质、降 碳的全面赋能，成为迈向新型工业化的关键支撑。 报告指出，钢铁是"工业粮食"，其转型升级关乎制造强国根基。作为我国头部民营钢企，沙钢集团以前瞻规划保持长期定力，体系化推动数智技术与全链条 深度融合。通过驱动业务流程重构、供应链升级与价值链延伸，成功在降本增效、提质增绿等方面构筑起新竞争优势，实现了业绩的稳健增长与形象的数智 化重塑，为钢铁行业提供了以"智改数转"加速新型工业化的"沙钢"样本。 报告认为，在钢铁行业效益普遍承压的背景下，"智改数转"已非"选择题"，而是关乎企业核心竞争力的"生存战"。数智化转型投入大、周期长、见效慢，极 易 ...

证券代码：600782 证券简称：新钢股份 公告编号：临2025-071 新余钢铁股份有限公司 关于召开2025年第三季度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 二、说明会召开的时间、地点和方式 会议召开时间：2025 年 11 月 26 日（星期三）15:00-16:00 会议召开地点：价值在线（www.ir-online.cn） 会议召开方式：网络互动方式 三、参加人员 会议召开时间：2025 年 11 月 26 日（星期三）15:00-16:00 会议召开地点：价值在线（www.ir-online.cn） 会议召开方式：网络互动方式 在"价值在线"（www.ir-online.cn）举办新余钢铁股份有限公司 2025 年第三季度业绩说明会，与投资者进行沟通和交流，广泛听取 投资者的意见和建议。 重要内容提示： 会议问题征集：投资者可于 2025 年 11 月 26 日前访问网址 https://eseb.cn/1tkwfo6vs1G或使用微信扫描下方小程序码进行会 前提问，公司将通过本次业绩说明 ...

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing a recovery in profits due to unexpected demand from manufacturing and direct exports, alongside the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, leading to an increase in supply optimization expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In Q1-Q3 2025, the SW steel index rose by 24.00%, ranking 17th among Shenwan industries, driven by improved manufacturing and export demand [1][2]. - From October 2025 to present, the SW steel index has continued to rise by 14.19%, ranking 4th among Shenwan industries [1][2]. - In Q3 2025, the profitability of the rebar sector turned positive, with a 102.59% increase in special steel profits year-on-year, while the gross profit margin rose to 7.59% and net profit margin increased to 2.19% [3]. Group 2: Policy and Structural Changes - The steel industry is focusing on differentiated production restrictions and classified management to promote high-value, low-carbon, and intelligent transformations, enhancing industry concentration and optimizing structural layout [3]. - Policies such as ultra-low emission upgrades and dual control of energy consumption are expected to drive capacity optimization and accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity [3]. Group 3: Demand Drivers - The manufacturing sector, particularly in machine tools, excavators, and commercial vehicles, remains resilient, with direct exports showing significant year-on-year growth, supporting steel demand [3]. - The construction sector is experiencing weak new starts, but forward-looking indicators like sales and land acquisition are showing reduced declines, stabilizing demand for construction steel [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Steel capacity optimization is expected to be a key focus moving forward, with a push for differentiated management to support competitive enterprises [4]. - Attention is recommended for leading steel companies such as Hualing Steel, Baosteel, and Nanjing Steel, as well as flexible stocks like Fangda Special Steel and New Steel [4]. - The special steel sector is projected to benefit from downstream demand in automotive, nuclear power, and oil and gas extraction, with companies like Xianglou New Materials and Jiuli Special Materials highlighted for stable growth [4]. - In the raw materials sector, companies with clear non-ferrous resource increments, such as Dazhong Mining and Hebei Steel Resources, are recommended for investment [4].