◼ 工业金属"内卷"的本质是资源端的匮乏与冶炼端的过剩背景下的结构性失衡。1）铜冶炼： 行业产能过剩，2018-2024 年我国铜冶炼行业产能利用率在 70-85%之间浮动，预计 2025 年铜 冶炼上市公司增加产量 85 万吨，yoy+8%，行业内卷或进一步加剧，截至 2025 年 7 月 TC/RC 分别为-43 美元/干吨、-4.3 美分/磅，行业持续亏损，我们预计后续"反内卷"政策下加工费有 望先恢复至近 10 年来最低水平——2024 年均值水平，TC 为 11.3 美元/干吨，RC 为 1.1 美分/ 磅。建议关注 2 类标的：①规模优势企业估值修复：江西铜业、铜陵有色、紫金矿业、中金岭 南等；②利润稳定高分红：西部矿业、江西铜业等。2）铅锌冶炼：我们认为铅锌行业的供给 侧改革已在路上，后续具备进一步细则落实的政策空间，我们预计 2025 年下半年锌精矿 TC 预计将进一步有序回升至 4000—4500 元/金属吨；进口铅精矿 TC 预计将回升至-20 美元/干 吨；建议关注成本优势豫光金铅、自给率较高，具备完整产业链驰宏锌锗。3）氧化铝：氧化 铝冶炼具备结构性产能优化空间，老旧产能的清退对行业盈 ...

上半年，我国聚焦优化主电网、补强配电网、服务新能源高质量发展，继续推进重大项目实施。两大电 网公司——国家电网和南方电网2025年计划投资额均创历史新高。在电网投资和特高压建设的增长带动 下，包括国电南自、保变电气等电气设备从业公司业绩高速增长。其中，国电南自预计上半年归母净利 润同比增长171.89%至225.66%；保变电气预计上半年归母净利润同比增长229.15%。 保变电气表示，业绩预增的主要原因是公司加大市场开拓力度，中标的产品项目订单增加，推动产品销 售，营业收入大幅增长，从而带动利润提升。今年2月，保变电气控股股东正式由兵器装备集团变更为 中国电气装备集团，本次整合后，保变电气将与中国电气装备集团进一步深化产业协同发展。此外，同 为中国电气装备集团旗下上市公司宏盛华源预计上半年归母净利润同比增长90.99%至111.77%。 郭晨凯 制图 79家央企控股上市公司上半年业绩预喜 ◎记者 王子霖 7月15日，A股上市公司上半年业绩预告披露截止。据统计，79家央企控股上市公司上半年业绩报喜， 实现归母净利润同比增长、扭亏及减亏的公司数分别为32家、22家和25家。从增幅来看，19家央企控股 上市公司的 ...

证券代码：600782 证券简称：新钢股份 公告编号：2025-053 新余钢铁股份有限公司 2025年半年度业绩预告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 一、本期业绩预告情况 （一）业绩预告期间 2025 年 1 月 1 日至 2025 年 6 月 30 日 （二）业绩预告情况 经财务部门初步测算，预计 2025 年半年度实现归属于母公司所 有者的净利润 8,900 万元到 11,200 万元，与上年同期（法定披露数 据）相比，实现扭亏为盈。 预计 2025 年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损 益后的净利润为-7,600 万元到-5,300 万元。 二、上年同期经营业绩和财务状况 本期业绩预告适用于《上海证券交易所股票上市规则》第5.1.1 条中应当进行预告的情形，"（二）净利润实现扭亏为盈"。 经财务部门初步测算，新余钢铁股份有限公司（以下简称"公 司"） 预计 2025 年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润 8,900 万元到 11,200 万元，与上年同期（法定披露数据）相比， ...

推荐（维持） "反内卷"，建议关注钢铁股底部修复机遇 行业观点：淡季供需双弱，市场情绪好转带动钢价上涨 事件一：截至 7 月 11 日，五大品种螺纹钢、线材、热轧、冷轧、中板价格分 别报收 3288 元/吨、3602 元/吨、3296 元/吨、3732 元/吨、3394 元/吨，周环比 分别变化+2.70%、+1.76%、+2.76%、+2.99%、-0.59%。本周五大品种产量 872.72 万吨，周环比下降 12.44 万吨。247 家钢铁企业日均铁水 239.81 万吨，周环比 下降 1.04 万吨，高炉产能利用率 89.9%，周环比下降 0.39 个百分点，高炉开 工率83.15%，周环比下降 0.31个百分点。短流程企业，电炉产能利用率 50.36%， 周环比下降 0.69 个百分点，电炉开工率 63.59%，周环比下降 3.28 个百分点。 库存方面，本周钢材总库存 1339.58 万吨，周环比下降 0.35 万吨。其中社会库 存环比下降 2.12 万吨至 914.01 万吨；钢厂库存环比上升 1.77 万吨至 425.57 万 吨。需求端，本周五大材合计消费量 873.07 万吨，周环比下降 1 ...

Core Points - The company announced a cash dividend of 0.01 CNY per share for the fiscal year 2024, approved during the annual shareholders' meeting on May 20, 2025 [1][2] - The dividend distribution will be based on a total share capital of 3,182,542,149 shares [1] - Key dates for the dividend distribution include the record date on July 17, 2025, the ex-dividend date on July 18, 2025, and the payment date also on July 18, 2025 [1] Dividend Distribution Details - The cash dividend will be distributed to all shareholders registered with the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited, Shanghai Branch, as of the record date [1] - The company will handle the cash dividend distribution for shares held by its controlling shareholder, Xinyu Steel Group Co., Ltd. [2] - Tax implications for shareholders include a 20% tax rate for those holding shares for one month or less, a 10% tax rate for holdings between one month and one year, and no tax for holdings over one year [2][3] Tax Withholding Information - The company will withhold a 10% corporate income tax on dividends paid to QFII investors, resulting in a net cash dividend of 0.009 CNY per share after tax [3] - Shareholders seeking to benefit from tax treaties must apply to the relevant tax authorities after receiving dividends [3] Contact Information - For inquiries regarding the dividend distribution, shareholders can contact the company's secretariat at 0790-6292961 [3]

重要内容提示： 每股分配比例 A 股每股现金红利0.01元 相关日期 证券代码：600782 证券简称：新钢股份 公告编号：2025-052 新余钢铁股份有限公司 2024年年度权益分派实施公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 | 股份类别 | 股权登记日 | 最后交易日 | 除权（息）日 | 现金红利发放日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ａ股 | 2025/7/17 | － | 2025/7/18 | 2025/7/18 | 差异化分红送转： 否 （一）发放年度：2024年年度 （二）分派对象： 截至股权登记日下午上海证券交易所收市后，在中国证券登记结 算有限责任公司上海分公司（以下简称"中国结算上海分公司"）登记 在册的本公司全体股东。 一、通过分配方案的股东会届次和日期 本次利润分配方案经公司2025年5月20日的2024年年度股东会审 议通过。 二、分配方案 本次利润分配以方案实施前的公司总股本3,182,542,149股为 基数，每股派发现金红利 0.01 元 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the steel industry's two main contradictions: weak demand and strong costs, with the industry entering its fourth year of a downward cycle in 2025. The effective demand has significantly decreased, particularly in the real estate sector, leading to a 42.9% drop in demand for steel used in real estate from 377 million tons in 2020 to 215 million tons in 2024 [6][18][25]. - The report anticipates a marginal rebound in the steel sector due to weakening costs and resilient demand, driven by a decline in coking coal prices and an expected increase in iron ore supply [6][37][45]. Demand and Cost Analysis - Weak demand is characterized by insufficient effective demand, making it easier to maintain volume than prices. The real estate sector's demand for steel has plummeted, contributing to a significant overall decline in steel prices [6][18][25]. - Strong costs are attributed to tight supply of raw materials like iron ore and coking coal, which have severely squeezed steel profits. The profit share of steel in the industrial chain has dropped to 16%, significantly below the historical average of 28% [6][31][34]. Supply-Side Strategies - The report discusses the "anti-involution" policy aimed at addressing excess capacity in the steel industry, which is expected to stabilize steel prices and improve profitability for steel companies. A potential reduction of 30 million tons in crude steel production in 2025 could lead to a price increase of 229 yuan per ton for rebar [6][8][37]. - Long-term capacity reduction is expected to be gradual, with approximately 20% of capacity facing compliance challenges, particularly among small private enterprises, which may face pressure to exit the market starting in 2026 [6][8][37]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in high-end steel products, such as Nanjing Steel, Hualing Steel, and Baosteel, which are expected to maintain profitability and enhance shareholder returns through capital expenditure and asset optimization [6][8][37]. - It also highlights the potential for recovery in valuation and performance for companies with low price-to-book ratios, such as New Steel and Fangda Special Steel, as well as opportunities in state-owned enterprise reforms and mergers and acquisitions [6][8][37].

证券代码：600782 证券简称：新钢股份 公告编号：临2025-051 新余钢铁股份有限公司 关于首期 A 股限制性股票激励计划首次授予结果公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： 根据中国证券监督管理委员会《上市公司股权激励管理办法》、 上海证券交易所、中国证券登记结算有限责任公司上海分公司的有关 规定，新余钢铁股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）已完成公司首期 A 股限制性股票激励计划（以下简称"本激励计划"）的首次授予登 记工作，有关具体情况如下： 一、本激励计划首次授予情况 公司于 2025 年 6 月 25 日召开第十届董事会第十次会议和第十届 监事会第九次会议，审议通过了《关于向激励对象首次授予限制性股 票的议案》，确定本激励计划的首次授予日为 2025 年 6 月 25 日，向 符合条件的 152 名激励对象授予 3,689 万股限制性股票，授予价格为 2.15 元/股。公司薪酬与考核委员会已事前审议通过该议案，监事会 同意该议案并出具了核查意见。本激励计划实际的首次授予情况如 ...

"反内卷"与供给出清行情展望 20250702 摘要 当前经济面临物价下行压力，库存周期补库存动力不足，受 7-10 年维 度的产能周期压制，工业产能利用率处于五年低位，而固定资产投资增 速偏高，反映出产能过剩和供给出清的压力。 不同行业面临的供给出清压力各异，中下游行业如汽车、通用设备、纺 织服装等面临较大压力，而钢铁行业产能利用率相对较高，供给扩张速 度适中，并非本轮关注焦点。 供给侧出清与以往不同，本轮更多涉及民营企业，调整可能导致价格剧 烈波动，需求疲弱时进行供给调整可能导致经济风险升温，但当前需求 环境相对温和，为供给侧出清提供了有利条件。 投资策略上，自然出清适合长期价值投资，关注资本开支底部、毛利率 底部和营收改善的行业，如港股互联网、白电等；行政干预则需考虑政 策力度，对应光伏、汽车、钢铁等资源类行业。 钢铁行业受益于商品估值处于低位和反内卷政策，出口保持强劲韧性， 缓解了国内需求压力，企业盈利情况有所改善，但下半年减产可能加严， 建议关注华菱、新钢等进可攻退可守标的。 Q&A 近期政策背景下，如何理解反内卷及其对行业发展的影响？ 人民日报最近重点提及了关于反内卷的动态，指出在破除内卷竞争中要 ...

Summary of Steel Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The steel sector is expected to experience a turning point after a downturn since 2021, with demand stabilizing due to manufacturing growth and steady exports, offsetting the decline in real estate [1][3][4] - Supply-side reforms have limited new capacity, and measures to reduce outdated capacity are enhancing expectations for supply contraction, which is favorable for supply-demand balance [1][8] Key Points Demand Dynamics - Manufacturing demand has increased to 50%-60% of total steel demand, with significant growth in automotive, home appliances, and shipbuilding sectors, mitigating the negative impact of real estate decline [1][4][5] - Despite a 70%-80% drop in new real estate projects over the past four years, total crude steel demand has only seen a slight decline, indicating resilience in the manufacturing sector [4][5] Supply-Side Factors - The steel industry has been in a production reduction cycle since 2016-2018, with no new production capacity approved since 2018, which has helped stabilize market prices and improve profitability [8][9] - Recent policies have further pushed for the orderly exit of outdated capacity, enhancing supply contraction expectations [2][3] Cost Trends - Raw material costs are expected to decline due to falling coking coal prices and the commissioning of large mines, which will alleviate cost pressures in the midstream smelting sector [1][11] - The overall industry profitability is anticipated to recover as raw material prices decrease while demand remains stable [18] Investment Opportunities - The steel sector is projected to enter a volatile upward cycle over the next two to three years, with high dividend yield companies like Baosteel, CITIC Special Steel, and Hesteel being recommended due to their stable performance and potential for valuation reassessment [1][12][15] - Other recommended stocks include New Steel and Fangda Special Steel for their defensive and elastic characteristics, and Liugang for its pure elasticity [14][19] Company-Specific Insights - **Baosteel**: Largest steel producer in China with a strong product structure including high-value products like automotive and home appliance steel [16][20] - **Hesteel**: Expected to increase dividend payout to 50% following completion of environmental upgrades, making it a high dividend stock [21] - **Fangda Special Steel**: Known for its cost reduction and efficiency improvement capabilities, with potential for mergers and acquisitions to enhance growth [22] - **Liugang**: Recently commissioned a project with significant capacity, expected to contribute positively to performance [23][24] Market Performance - In the first 26 weeks of 2025, the apparent consumption of five major steel products showed a year-on-year decline of only 0.36%, indicating a narrowing decline compared to previous years [17] - The overall supply-demand data is favorable, with crude steel production down 1.7% year-on-year, suggesting a balanced market [17] Future Outlook - The steel industry is expected to stabilize and potentially see positive growth in demand due to urbanization and industrialization in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, as well as manufacturing returning to the U.S. and Europe [6][7] - The overall sentiment is optimistic for the next two to three years, with a focus on leading companies and those with defensive characteristics [26]