Core Viewpoint - The top six listed liquor companies in China are transitioning to a low-speed growth model, reflecting a structural change in the industry due to external economic pressures, market transformation, and inventory adjustments [1][3][4] Industry Performance - In Q1 2023, the total revenue of large-scale liquor enterprises in China was 196.3 billion, a slight increase of 0.38% year-on-year, while total profit decreased by 0.73% [3] - The production of liquor in China from January to April 2025 was 1.308 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%, indicating a potential eighth consecutive year of declining production if the trend continues [1] Strategic Adjustments - Major liquor companies are adopting more pragmatic and quality-focused growth strategies, with Moutai setting a revenue growth target of around 9% for 2023 [4][6] - Companies like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao emphasize stability and gradual progress in their development goals, reflecting a shift from rapid growth to high-quality development [4][6] Market and Channel Strategies - Companies are focusing on enhancing channel operation efficiency and quality, with Yanghe implementing product optimization and inventory control measures [8][10] - Luzhou Laojiao is adjusting sales targets and market policies based on consumer behavior, while Gujing Gongjiu is optimizing resource allocation for better effectiveness [10] Product Innovation - The industry is seeing a trend towards low-alcohol products, with Luzhou Laojiao's 38-degree Guojiao 1573 achieving over 10 billion in revenue [18][20] - The low-alcohol market is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of around 30% from 2021 to 2024, indicating a promising opportunity for smaller enterprises [20][21] Youth Engagement - The liquor industry recognizes the importance of engaging younger consumers, with companies like Wuliangye and Fenjiu launching targeted products and marketing strategies to attract this demographic [14][16] - The younger consumer segment (ages 25-40) accounted for 38% of liquor consumers in the first half of 2023, highlighting the need for brands to adapt to changing preferences [14] Conclusion - The liquor industry is undergoing a significant transformation, moving from rapid expansion to a focus on value creation and quality development, with both large and small enterprises needing to adapt to these changes to thrive in the evolving market landscape [21]

随着白酒产量的持续下滑，行业整体踏入存量竞争阶段。有白酒上市公司5月就公开表示：酒类消费供 需结构出现了转移和分化，酒类消费市场进入到存量期；舍得酒业（600702.SH）也在近期提及"行业挤 压式存量竞争不断加剧"。 国家统计局最新数据显示，2025年1-4月，全国规模以上企业白酒（折65度，商品量）产量130.8万千 升，同比下降7.8%。其中，4月产量28.1万千升，同比下降13.8%。 记者注意到，2016年以来，白酒产量逐年下滑。据国家统计局数据，我国白酒产量在2016年达到1358.4 万千升的高点，此后便开启逐年下滑模式，2024年我国白酒产量为414.5万千升。 一位白酒上市公司高管表示："行业调整短期会增加企业经营难度，导致行业竞争加剧，但对于行业健 康度提升也有积极作用。" 白酒产量逐年下滑，中小酒企"存量厮杀"加剧 国家统计局数据显示，2024年，全国规模以上企业累计白酒产量（折65度，商品量）414.5万千升,同比 下降1.8%；2024年12月,规模以上企业白酒（折65度）产量47.4万千升,同比下降7.6%。 来源于东莞证券研究所 这是白酒产量持续下滑的第八个年头。产量收缩的原因， ...

Core Viewpoint - The event "New Quality Leading, Brand Setting Sail" held in Milan showcases the internationalization of Chinese liquor, particularly focusing on Shanxi Xinghuacun Fenjiu International Trade Co., which aims to promote Chinese liquor culture globally [1][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event was guided by the Chinese Consulate in Milan and organized by Global Times, highlighting the achievements of Chinese liquor brands in international markets [1]. - Fenjiu International's General Manager, Zhang Weidong, emphasized the importance of quality and culture in representing Chinese products abroad [5][7]. Group 2: Cultural Integration - Zhang Weidong stated that food and drink serve as important cultural ambassadors between China and Italy, with Fenjiu's products already well-received in Italy [3][5]. - The company aims to tell a compelling story of Chinese brand globalization, focusing on quality and cultural narratives [5][10]. Group 3: Market Strategies - Fenjiu's international strategy includes two main paths: cultural immersion through the Chinese diaspora and breaking into local markets via cocktail culture [7][12]. - The company has established a presence in over 70 countries, with more than 100 overseas distributors and 9,000 retail outlets [7][12]. Group 4: Performance Metrics - Fenjiu reported a revenue of 36.011 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.79%, and a net profit of 12.243 billion yuan, up 17.29% [12][13]. - The company has been proactive in aligning with international standards and enhancing its global footprint through various initiatives since 1992 [13][17]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The company is focused on transforming from a "Chinese famous liquor" to a "world famous liquor" by leveraging its historical craftsmanship and innovative approaches [17].

Group 1 - The main consumption index (000932) has shown a slight increase of 0.14% as of May 27, 2025, with notable gains in stocks such as Yanjing Beer (2.89%) and Angel Yeast (2.85%) [1] - The major consumption ETF (159672) has risen by 4.04% over the past three months, indicating a positive trend in consumer sector investments [1] - Huatai Securities expresses optimism regarding the food and beverage industry during the economic transition towards consumption, supported by clear policies and steady growth in retail sales [1] Group 2 - The major consumption ETF closely tracks the main consumption index and is categorized into 11 primary and 35 secondary industries, providing a comprehensive analysis tool for investors [2] - Since its inception, the major consumption ETF has achieved a maximum monthly return of 24.35% and an average monthly return of 5.36% [2] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of the major consumption index is 19.75, indicating a valuation lower than 95.63% of the past year, suggesting historical low valuations [2] Group 3 - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the main consumption index account for 67.16% of the total index, with Yili (10.39%) and Kweichow Moutai (10.39%) being the largest contributors [3] - The top ten stocks include notable companies such as Wuliangye and Moutai, reflecting the concentration of market weight in a few key players [3][5]

Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 Index showed a mixed performance with the banking sector seeing gains while the semiconductor and automotive sectors experienced declines [1] Banking Sector - Major banks such as China Pacific Insurance, Ping An Insurance, and China Life Insurance reported market capitalizations of 363.08 billion, 323.34 billion, and 971.52 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 246 million, 819 million, and 326 million [3] Semiconductor Sector - North China Innovation and Cambricon Technologies had market capitalizations of 229.69 billion and 262.17 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 1.706 billion and 674 million, showing declines of 1.58 (-0.37%) and 22.99 (-3.53%) [3] Automotive Sector - Great Wall Motors and BYD reported market capitalizations of 193.36 billion and 289.24 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 6.002 billion and 1.8 billion, both showing declines of 11.95 (-3.14%) and 0.20 (-0.88%) [3] Oil and Gas Sector - China Shipping and Sinopec had market capitalizations of 688.88 billion and 252.95 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 1.145 billion and 187 million, showing no significant change [3] Coal Sector - China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry reported market capitalizations of 200.01 billion and 787.59 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 417 million and 260 million, with slight changes in stock prices [3] Power Sector - Yangtze Power and China Nuclear Power had market capitalizations of 199.30 billion and 743.83 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 1.022 billion and 601 million, showing minor fluctuations [4] Food and Beverage Sector - China Citic Securities and Haitai Flavoring reported market capitalizations of 377.18 billion and 246.00 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 198 million and 610 million, both showing slight declines [4] Consumer Electronics Sector - Industrial Fulian and Luxshare Precision reported market capitalizations of 367.39 billion and 221.56 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 1.782 billion and 1.135 billion, both showing declines [4] Logistics Sector - Mindray Medical and Wanhua Chemical reported market capitalizations of 172.47 billion and 226.01 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 340 million and 340 million, both showing slight declines [4] Construction Sector - China State Construction and Zijin Mining reported market capitalizations of 478.93 billion and 233.05 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 1.613 billion and 493 million, showing minor fluctuations [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage sector is "Outperform the Market" [4][5][76]. Core Views - The report highlights that the liquor industry is currently facing pressure on volume and price during the off-season, but the confidence from the Moutai shareholders' meeting indicates resilience through cycles. Moutai's chairman emphasized the company's commitment to product quality and cultural foundation, while the general manager pointed out the need for rational recognition of the current cyclical challenges [2][11]. - The beverage sector is entering a demand peak season, with expectations for good sales performance due to low base comparisons from the previous year. The report suggests that the beer industry is stabilizing and recovering, with a focus on structural allocation opportunities [3][14][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Perspective - Moutai's shareholders' meeting conveyed confidence in navigating through cycles, while beer and beverage sectors are entering a demand peak [1][11]. - The liquor production from January to April 2025 was 1.308 million kiloliters, down 7.8% year-on-year, with April's production down 13.8% [2][11]. 2. Key Data Tracking - The food and beverage sector declined by 1.32% from May 19 to May 23, 2025, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.76 percentage points [21]. - The white liquor index fell by 2.8% during the same period, influenced by external disturbances and ongoing demand pressures [13][21]. 3. Key Company Earnings Forecast and Investment Ratings - Moutai (600519.SH) is rated "Outperform the Market" with a projected EPS of 75.28 in 2025 and a PE ratio of 20.9 [4]. - Other companies such as Wuliangye (000858.SZ), Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH), and Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ) also received "Outperform the Market" ratings, indicating strong performance expectations [4]. 4. Sector Analysis - The beer industry is expected to enter a sales verification phase, with good performance anticipated due to last year's low base [14][15]. - The snack sector is experiencing a trend of efficiency improvements across the supply chain, with recommendations for companies that are innovating and breaking into new channels [16]. - The condiment sector shows strong performance from leading companies, with a focus on the recovery of the restaurant chain [17]. - The frozen food sector is stabilizing, but the restaurant industry remains weak, impacting sales [18]. - The dairy sector is seeing a potential policy catalyst for demand recovery, with supply clearing accelerating [19].

Core Insights - The current state of market capitalization management in A-shares reveals that over 5,400 listed companies exist, yet nearly half of them lack in-depth coverage from any brokerage research institutions [1] - The lack of coverage may stem from smaller market capitalization, insufficient business highlights, or inadequate investor relations management by the companies themselves [1] - Coverage by brokerage firms is crucial for companies aiming to enter public fund stock pools, as it directly impacts their accessibility to mainstream public funds [1] - Effective investor relations management can influence a company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio, leading to better market performance [2] Company Ratings and Coverage - As of May 23, 2024, there are 5,415 listed companies in A-shares, with 3,210 receiving institutional ratings [4] - Among these, 1,157 companies have ratings from 10 or more institutions, while 557 companies have ratings from only one institution, accounting for 10.2% [4] - Notable companies with over 50 institutional ratings include Kweichow Moutai (58), Proya Cosmetics (54), and Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (53) [5] Industry Distribution of Ratings - In the ChiNext board, 721 companies have at least one institutional rating, with several companies exceeding 40 ratings [6] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board has 477 companies with at least one rating, and 110 companies remain unrated, representing 18.7% [6] - The North Exchange has 140 companies rated by at least one institution, with 126 companies unrated, accounting for 47.3% [6] Performance of Rated Companies - Among the 1,157 rated companies, 552 achieved year-on-year growth in both revenue and net profit, representing nearly 50% [7] - In contrast, over 2,200 companies lack institutional ratings, with significant representation in sectors like machinery, basic chemicals, and pharmaceuticals [8] - Of the unrated companies, 672 reported year-on-year growth in both revenue and net profit, with 12 companies achieving over 100% growth in both metrics [9] Noteworthy Companies with High Growth - Companies such as Zhengdan Co., Ltd. and Yangdian Technology reported substantial revenue and net profit growth, with increases of 126.31% and 131.88% respectively [10] - Other companies like *ST Wanfang and Xinhongze also demonstrated impressive growth rates, indicating potential investment opportunities in overlooked firms [10]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Index for Food, Beverage, and Tobacco has shown a slight decline of 0.85% over the past month, but a growth of 3.91% over the last three months, with a year-to-date decrease of 1.78% [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities Index for Food, Beverage, and Tobacco is currently at 12,699.63 points [1] - The index is categorized into 11 primary industries, 35 secondary industries, over 90 tertiary industries, and more than 200 quaternary industries [1] Group 2: Major Holdings - The top ten weightings in the index are as follows: Yili Group (11.01%), Kweichow Moutai (10.74%), Wuliangye (9.12%), Shanxi Fenjiu (6.74%), Luzhou Laojiao (6.45%), Haitian Flavoring (5.32%), Dongpeng Beverage (4.24%), Yanghe Brewery (2.92%), Jinshiyuan (2.45%), and Shuanghui Development (1.84%) [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange accounts for 61.18% of the index holdings, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange accounts for 38.82% [1] Group 3: Industry Composition - The industry composition of the index includes: Baijiu (46.70%), Dairy Products (12.47%), Seasonings and Cooking Oils (12.08%), Other Foods (7.99%), Soft Drinks (6.64%), Beer (4.75%), Snack Foods (4.09%), Meat Products (3.26%), Wine and Others (1.22%), and Huangjiu (0.81%) [2] Group 4: Sample Adjustment - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with temporary adjustments made in response to special events affecting sample companies [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a mixed performance in the consumer sector, with the main consumption index showing a slight increase while retail sales growth has slowed down due to seasonal factors and external trade policies [2][3][4] - As of April 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year-on-year, with a slight decline in growth compared to March, attributed to weaker demand in the off-season and potential impacts from US-China tariff policies [2] - The food and beverage sub-sectors showed varied performance, with grain and oil food categories growing by 14.0% year-on-year, while beverage and tobacco categories experienced a decline in growth rates [2][3] Group 2 - The major consumption ETF has seen a net value increase of 0.35% over the past six months, with a maximum monthly return of 24.35% since its inception [3] - The ETF's management fee is 0.50% and the custody fee is 0.10%, making it one of the lowest in its category [3] - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the index tracked by the ETF is 19.9, indicating a valuation lower than 93.63% of the time over the past year, suggesting it is at a historical low [3][4] Group 3 - The top ten weighted stocks in the consumer index account for 67.16% of the total index, with notable companies including Yili, Kweichow Moutai, and Wuliangye [4][6] - The performance of individual stocks within the top ten shows mixed results, with Kweichow Moutai declining by 0.52% and Yili increasing by 1.18% [6]

Core Insights - Chinese liquor brands are increasingly appearing on retail shelves in Hong Kong, marking a shift in consumer preferences from traditional wine and whiskey to Chinese spirits [1][5][21] - The import of spirits from mainland China to Hong Kong has significantly increased, with over half of the total spirit imports coming from the mainland [5][12] - The Hong Kong government has reduced taxes on high-end spirits, creating new sales opportunities for Chinese liquor brands [5][13] Market Trends - The presence of Chinese liquor in Hong Kong is growing, with brands like Moutai and Fenjiu opening dedicated stores and bars featuring their products [1][4] - The trend of using Chinese liquor as a base for cocktails is gaining popularity among bartenders in Hong Kong [2][9] - The import volume of spirits in Hong Kong reached 11.28 million liters, with a total import value of HKD 3.177 billion, indicating a robust market for alcoholic beverages [5][12] Competitive Landscape - The competition in the Hong Kong liquor market remains fierce, with imported wines and whiskeys dominating the shelves, while Chinese liquor brands are still establishing their presence [11][21] - Chinese liquor companies are adopting various strategies to penetrate the market, including promotional events and collaborations with local bars [8][19] - The market is characterized by a mix of competition and cooperation among Chinese liquor brands, as they often share the same distributors and marketing channels [17][22] Consumer Behavior - The drinking culture in Hong Kong is evolving, with a preference for lower-alcohol beverages and a growing acceptance of Chinese spirits among local consumers [20][21] - The influx of mainland Chinese companies and institutions in Hong Kong is creating a new consumer base for Chinese liquor, as these entities are more familiar with and open to high-proof spirits [20][22] - The overall consumption of alcoholic beverages in Hong Kong is on the rise, with wine and beer still holding significant market shares [20][21] Financial Performance - Major Chinese liquor companies are experiencing a slowdown in domestic growth, prompting them to seek opportunities in international markets, including Hong Kong [22][24] - Moutai reported a 19.27% increase in overseas revenue, reaching HKD 5.189 billion, indicating successful international expansion [24] - Fenjiu's exports to Hong Kong saw a remarkable growth of approximately 68.82% in 2024 compared to the previous year [12][24]