国泰海通证券 | 研究所 梁中华 宏观研究首席分析师 行业核心洞察 全球大变局, 融入新宏观 推 荐 阅 读 上线了！国泰海通2025研究框架培训视频版｜洞察价值，共创未来 报告来源 观点来自国泰海通证券已发布的研究报告。 报告名称："新宏观"框架——我所经历和研究的十年宏 观；报告日期：20250803；报告作者：梁中华 S0880525040019；风险提示：大国博弈超预期。 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 价值主张 返璞归真,专注研究;前瞻深度,化繁为简 Alling Hou 年度代表作 点击下方图片 查看电话会回放详细议程 扫码关注 星标不迷路 国泰海通证券研究所官方公众号 海量研报 | 热门活动 | 视听内容 ...

报告导读： 光伏在政策、需求、业绩等方面的利好催化不断，产业链价格有望上涨，带动 基本面逐渐改善，当前位置值得重点关注。 投资建议： 我们认为国家高度重视光伏等行业的恶性竞争现象，反内卷对于光伏板块具备非常积极的影响。通过行业、政策、需求端等多方面的发力，光伏 板块整体上将迎来困境反转。当前行业正处于底部区间，值得重点关注。 防止"内卷式"竞争，光伏板块是重点行业 。 光伏作为我国 "新三样"的行业之一，在碳中和的大背景下，长期发展前景广阔，对外出口占比也较高，由于阶 段性的供需矛盾，价格处于持续承压的状态。对此，国家高度重视，持续推进反内卷的工作推进。 25 年 8 月，六部门联合召开光伏座谈会，光伏制造和发 电企业参会，部署进一步规范光伏产业竞争秩序的工作。我们认为，国家整治内卷式竞争的力度在不断加强，多部门参与表明政策重视的程度较高，相关法律 的修订也将为反内卷提供强有力的保障。 多管齐下，光伏行业将迎来改善 。 行业端，头部企业将积极推动产能整合，并合理控制开工节奏，促进价格企稳回升。根据我们测算，价格仍有一定上行空 间。政策端，国家将加快推进价格法修订，进一步明确低价倾销等不正当价格行为的认定标准。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in the bond market is expected to be supported by domestic monetary easing following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, which may enhance the bond market's performance in the fourth quarter [1][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, from a target range of 4.25%-4.5% to 4.00%-4.25%, marking its first rate cut in nine months [2]. - Domestic banks are likely to follow suit with interest rate cuts, with predictions of a 10 basis points reduction in policy rates and a potential 20 basis points cut in the LPR for loans over five years [3][5]. Group 2: Currency and Export Dynamics - The weakening of the US dollar, which fell from around 100 points in late July to approximately 97 points by September 18, has led to a passive appreciation of the RMB, enhancing the willingness of export enterprises to settle in RMB [2]. - The RMB exchange rate has appreciated significantly, breaking the 7.2 mark and reaching around 7.1, which may pose risks to export competitiveness and necessitate measures to stabilize the currency [3]. Group 3: Bond Market Outlook - With the expectation of further monetary easing, institutions are optimistic about the bond market in the fourth quarter, predicting that the yield on 10-year government bonds may return to around 1.65% [5]. - After three months of adjustment, the bond market shows signs of stabilization, with expectations for a new downward trend in interest rates as the fourth quarter approaches [6].

Group 1 - The overall market sentiment is expected to improve with the return of funds after the National Day holiday and rising policy expectations for the "14th Five-Year Plan" from the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session [1][3] - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.30% and the CSI 300 Index down 0.44%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index rose by 1.14% and 2.34% respectively [1] - The trading volume increased, with an average daily turnover of approximately 2.52 trillion yuan, peaking at 3.17 trillion yuan on Thursday before dropping to 2.35 trillion yuan on Friday [1] Group 2 - The convertible bond market is experiencing a downward adjustment, with the China Convertible Bond Index down 1.55% and the convertible bond equal-weight index down 1.29% [2] - The median price of convertible bonds fell from 132.30 yuan to 129.51 yuan, and the median conversion premium rate shrank to 23.77% [2] - The market is expected to remain in a volatile state for the remainder of September, with potential risk aversion as the National Day holiday approaches [2] Group 3 - In October, the convertible bond market is anticipated to receive support and repair opportunities, with a focus on stocks with solid fundamentals and compressed conversion premiums, particularly in technology growth and cyclical sectors [3] - The market's overall tight supply-demand balance is likely to continue supporting convertible bond valuations [3]

据记者对中国证券业协会数据的统计，截至9月19日，券商分析师数量达6162人，今年以来新增超400人。 证券时报记者 谭楚丹 券商分析师人数创下历史新高。 近日，证券时报记者查询中国证券业协会数据发现，券商分析师数量已突破6000大关，创历史新高。据了解，大型券商研 究所以内生培养为主，中小机构则倚重外部引进。 券商分析师队伍正加速扩张，但市场蛋糕却在缩小。受公募基金"费改"影响，上半年行业分仓佣金收入下滑超30%，券商 研究所转型迫在眉睫，需寻求非佣金类新业务增长点、实现收入结构多元化；同时，部分头部机构的增员速度有所放缓。 规模显著扩容 拉长时间维度看，券商分析师近两年来呈快速扩张态势。据东方财富Choice数据，2018年分析师数量突破3000，此后三年 间长期在4000人以内波动，直至2022年才跨越4000人大关；2024年分析师数量已突破5000人。 截至9月19日，共有3家券商分析师数量超过300人，较年初增加2家。其中，中金公司以344名分析师数量排名第一；国泰 海通证券因合并因素成为行业第二，拥有303名分析师；中信证券的分析师数量亦在今年突破300人。 东方财富证券增员数量紧随其后。据中证 ...

截至9月19日，共有3家券商分析师数量超过300人，较年初增加2家。其中，中金公司以344名分析师数 量排名第一；国泰海通证券因合并因素成为行业第二，拥有303名分析师；中信证券的分析师数量亦在 今年突破300人。 券商分析师人数创下历史新高。 近日，证券时报记者查询中国证券业协会数据发现，券商分析师数量已突破6000大关，创历史新高。据 了解，大型券商研究所以内生培养为主，中小机构则倚重外部引进。 券商分析师队伍正加速扩张，但市场蛋糕却在缩小。受公募基金"费改"影响，上半年行业分仓佣金收入 下滑超30%，券商研究所转型迫在眉睫，需寻求非佣金类新业务增长点、实现收入结构多元化；同时， 部分头部机构的增员速度有所放缓。 规模显著扩容 据记者对中国证券业协会数据的统计，截至9月19日，券商分析师数量达6162人，今年以来新增超400 人。 拉长时间维度看，券商分析师近两年来呈快速扩张态势。据东方财富Choice数据，2018年分析师数量突 破3000，此后三年间长期在4000人以内波动，直至2022年才跨越4000人大关；2024年分析师数量已突破 5000人。 谈及分析师数量快速增长原因，业内人士认为，一是在公 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley Fund Management (China) Co., Ltd. has signed a sales agreement with Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. to include Guotai Junan as a sales institution for certain funds starting from September 22, 2025, offering fee rate discounts for subscription and regular investment activities [1][6]. Applicable Funds - The funds included in this agreement are: 1. Morgan Stanley Pure Bond Stable Growth 18-Month Regular Open Bond Fund A Class (Fund Code: 016745) 2. Morgan Stanley Abundant 63-Month Regular Open Bond Fund (Fund Code: 009816) 3. Morgan Stanley Minfeng Ying and One-Year Holding Period Mixed Fund (Fund Code: 010222) 4. Morgan Stanley Economic Intelligence Selected Mixed Fund (Fund Code: A Class 020231, C Class 020233) 5. Morgan Stanley Stable Abundant Rate Bond Fund (Fund Code: A Class 022786, C Class 022787) [1]. Business Operations - Starting from September 22, 2025, investors can handle account opening, subscription, regular investment, redemption, fund conversion, and other related business through Guotai Junan Securities for the specified funds [1]. Regular Investment Business - The minimum deduction amount and deduction date can be agreed upon with the sales institution, and if the deduction date is not a trading day, it will be postponed to the next trading day [3][4]. Fund Conversion Business - The rules, rates, and important matters regarding the conversion business are detailed in the relevant business announcements issued by the company [5]. Fee Rate Discount Activities - From September 22, 2025, investors who subscribe or invest regularly in the specified funds through the sales institution will enjoy specific discount rates, with the original subscription rates applicable if fixed fees are involved [6][8].

Group 1 - Securities firms have conducted a total of 3,845 research activities involving 644 listed companies since September 21, with a focus on industries such as industrial machinery and electronic components [1][2] - The most frequently researched company is Lanke Technology, which has been surveyed by 54 securities firms, followed by Juguang Technology with 40 surveys [1] - Leading securities firms include CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan, each conducting 175 surveys, while Changjiang Securities has conducted 135 surveys [1] Group 2 - Among the 644 listed companies, 76 are in the industrial machinery sector, and 42 are in the electronic components sector, indicating a preference for these industries [2] - As of September 19, 288 of the surveyed stocks have seen price increases this month, with 24 stocks rising over 30%, led by World with a 76.94% increase [2] Group 3 - Key issues of interest in the surveys include companies' overseas expansion strategies, with Juguang Technology actively integrating its acquisitions in Switzerland and Singapore [3] - Companies like Kaiying Network reported a 59.57% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue in the first half of the year, focusing on enhancing their product matrix for international markets [3] - Analysts predict that a number of Chinese companies will emerge as influential players in international markets, potentially leading to greater valuation premiums for leading domestic firms [3]

今年以来，券商发债积极性较高，截至9月21日，合计发行规模达1.23万亿元。其中，科技创新债券 （以下简称"科创债"）凭借资金投向精准、融资模式灵活的优势，在金融支持科技创新企业发展中扮演 了关键角色。年内券商科创债发行规模已超570亿元，在政策引导与市场需求的双重驱动下，券商正以 融资与服务双轮驱动模式，为科技创新企业注入源源不断的金融活水。 本报记者 周尚伃 除了自身发行科创债，券商在科创债承销领域同样表现亮眼，成为连接科创企业与资本市场的关键纽 带。中国证券业协会最新数据显示，上半年，共有68家券商担任了科技创新债券的主承销商，合计承销 了380只债券，同比增长82.69%；承销金额合计达到3813.91亿元，同比增长56.48%，承销规模与数量均 实现大幅增长。 此外，券商对科技金融的深耕，还体现在长期战略布局上。近期，中国证券业协会正式发布《证券公司 做好金融"五篇大文章"专项评价办法（试行）》，通过14项代表性评价指标构建多维考核体系，引导券 商更好发挥功能性。其中，科技金融以50分的最高权重成为核心考核方向。 为把握发展机遇，券商将科创债相关业务作为重要的发力点，持续加强对科技型企业全链条全生命 ...

Core Insights - The bond financing activities of securities firms in China have significantly increased this year, with a total issuance exceeding 1 trillion yuan [4][2]. - As of September 19, 2023, 71 securities firms have issued 657 bonds, marking a year-on-year growth of 64.25% [4]. - The total bond issuance scale for the year has reached 1.18 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 69.93% [4]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Data - The top 10 securities firms by bond issuance scale as of 2025 include China Galaxy (107.9 billion yuan), Huatai Securities (93.7 billion yuan), and Guotai Junan (75.8 billion yuan) [5]. - Other notable firms in the top 10 include GF Securities (68.52 billion yuan) and China Merchants Securities (62.7 billion yuan) [5][6]. Group 2: Bond Holding Data - As of September 19, 2023, the total bond holding scale of 76 securities firms is 2.96 trillion yuan [7]. - The top 10 firms by bond holding scale include Guotai Junan (252.6 billion yuan), China Galaxy (188.6 billion yuan), and Huatai Securities (188 billion yuan) [7][8]. Group 3: Recent Approvals for Bond Issuance - In September, several securities firms, including Guotai Junan and CITIC Securities, received approval to issue bonds to professional investors [9]. - CITIC Securities has been approved to issue bonds with a face value of up to 60 billion yuan [13].