Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintain) [3] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in production and has committed to a higher dividend payout ratio [2] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 420.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.94%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 137.94 billion yuan, up 11.38% year-on-year [7] - The company has maintained a strong operational performance despite challenges such as asset impairment affecting profits [8] - The company has a leading position in the industry regarding reserve and production growth rates, with a net production of 726.8 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [9][10] - The company plans to maintain a high dividend strategy, with a total dividend of 1.40 HKD per share for 2024, a 12% increase year-on-year, and a payout ratio of 44.7% [12] - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is 140.37 billion, 146.32 billion, and 154.52 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8.79, 8.44, and 7.99 [13] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 53.6% and a return on equity (ROE) of 18.5% [14] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 1,056.28 billion yuan in 2024 to 1,254.65 billion yuan in 2027 [16] - The company’s operating income for 2024 is 420.51 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.9% [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company achieved record oil and gas production, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, effectively mitigating risks amid geopolitical tensions and economic challenges [7] - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 420.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.94%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 137.94 billion yuan, up 11.38% year-on-year [5][7] - The average Brent crude oil price in 2024 was $79.90 per barrel, a decrease of approximately 2.9% compared to the previous year [7] Financial Performance - For Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 94.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.94%, and a net profit of 21.28 billion yuan, down 18.78% year-on-year [6][11] - The company maintained a gross profit margin of 50.79% in Q4 2024, with a net profit margin of 22.54% [6][11] - The company’s total assets reached 1,056.28 billion yuan, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 29% [44] Production and Sales - In 2024, the company sold 562.9 million barrels of oil, a 9.4% increase year-on-year, with an average realized oil price of $76.75 per barrel [8] - Natural gas sales reached 870.3 billion cubic feet, up 7.8% year-on-year, with an average realized price of $7.72 per thousand cubic feet [8] Future Outlook - The company expects revenues of 414.71 billion yuan in 2025, with net profits projected at 138.32 billion yuan, reflecting a stable growth outlook [15][40] - The report highlights the company's commitment to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% from 2025 to 2027 [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted to 27.9 CNY based on a 10x PE ratio for comparable companies in 2025 [2][4]. Core Views - The company demonstrates steady performance with a projected revenue of 420.5 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.9%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 137.9 billion CNY, up 11.4% year-on-year, indicating a continuous improvement in profitability [9]. - The company has achieved a record high oil and gas net production of 727 million barrels of oil equivalent, showcasing its resource development capabilities as a leading offshore oil and gas player in China. Cost control measures have effectively maintained low costs per barrel, supporting high profitability resilience [9]. - The company plans to maintain stable capital expenditures, focusing on the development of deepwater oil and gas fields and the layout of new energy businesses, which positions it well to capitalize on the recovery of global energy demand and domestic policies supporting increased reserves and production [9]. Financial Summary - The company's financial performance is projected as follows: - Revenue (in million CNY): 416,609 in 2023, 420,506 in 2024, 429,067 in 2025, 454,713 in 2026, and 481,992 in 2027, with growth rates of -1.3%, 0.9%, 2.0%, 6.0%, and 6.0% respectively [7]. - Net profit (in million CNY): 123,843 in 2023, 137,936 in 2024, 132,565 in 2025, 142,004 in 2026, and 148,442 in 2027, with growth rates of -12.6%, 11.4%, -3.9%, 7.1%, and 4.5% respectively [7]. - Earnings per share (in CNY): 2.61 in 2023, 2.90 in 2024, 2.79 in 2025, 2.99 in 2026, and 3.12 in 2027 [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company demonstrates steady performance with a revenue of 420.5 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.9% and a net profit of 137.9 billion yuan, up 11.4% year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [9] - The company has achieved a record high oil and gas net production of 727 million barrels of oil equivalent, showcasing its resource development capabilities as a leading offshore oil and gas player in China [9] - The company continues its high dividend policy, with A/H share dividends of 1.29 yuan/share and 1.40 HKD/share, corresponding to dividend yields of approximately 5.0% and 7.6% respectively, highlighting its long-term investment value [9] - Looking ahead to 2025, the company plans to maintain stable capital expenditures, focusing on deepwater oil and gas field development and new energy business layout, which is expected to enhance oil and gas production and release growth potential [9] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million yuan): - 2023A: 416,609 - 2024A: 420,506 - 2025E: 429,067 - 2026E: 454,713 - 2027E: 481,992 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2023A: -1.3% - 2024A: 0.9% - 2025E: 2.0% - 2026E: 6.0% - 2027E: 6.0% [7] - Net profit (in million yuan): - 2023A: 123,843 - 2024A: 137,936 - 2025E: 132,565 - 2026E: 142,004 - 2027E: 148,442 - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit: - 2023A: -12.6% - 2024A: 11.4% - 2025E: -3.9% - 2026E: 7.1% - 2027E: 4.5% [7] - Earnings per share (in yuan): - 2023A: 2.61 - 2024A: 2.90 - 2025E: 2.79 - 2026E: 2.99 - 2027E: 3.12 [7]

Group 1 - TBEA plans to invest CNY 17.04 billion in a coal-to-gas project, aligning with national development strategies and enhancing energy self-sufficiency [1] - The project is expected to face risks such as product price fluctuations, market competition, and environmental safety [1] Group 2 - CNOOC has discovered a large oil field in the eastern South China Sea, with proven geological reserves exceeding 100 million tons of oil equivalent, marking a significant milestone in offshore exploration [2] - This discovery is anticipated to improve China's oil and gas self-sufficiency and reduce dependence on foreign resources [2] Group 3 - The National Data Bureau announced that by the end of this year, over 80% of new large data centers will utilize green electricity, promoting the integration of green energy and high-tech industries [3] - The initiative aims to concentrate over 60% of new computing power at national hub nodes, reinforcing China's advantages in artificial intelligence [3]

Group 1 - The Chief Executive of Macau, Ho Iat Seng, will present the 2025 Policy Address on April 14, outlining a roadmap for high-quality development under the "One Country, Two Systems" framework [1] Group 2 - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has discovered a billion-ton oil field in the eastern South China Sea, with a daily production of 413 barrels of oil and 68,000 cubic meters of natural gas [2] - This discovery marks the first billion-ton offshore deep-layer oil field in China, significantly contributing to the country's energy security [2] Group 3 - Hong Kong's retail sales value in February was estimated at HKD 29.4 billion, a year-on-year decline of 13%, with a 15% drop in sales volume after adjusting for price changes [3] - The first two months of the year typically see fluctuations due to the Lunar New Year, with a combined sales value decline of 7.8% compared to the same period last year [3] - Future prospects for Hong Kong's retail sector may improve due to measures from the central government to boost the economy and ongoing efforts to promote tourism [3] Group 4 - Three districts in Shenzhen, namely Nanshan, Baoan, and Longgang, have been ranked among the top 10 most valuable investment districts in China, with significant financing activity in electronic information, healthcare, and advanced manufacturing [4] - These districts have shown notable achievements in upgrading traditional industries and nurturing emerging sectors, reflecting the integration of Shenzhen's industrial ecosystem with capital [4] Group 5 - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,504.33 points, down 0.97% on March 31 [5] Group 6 - The top gainers in the Shenzhen market included C रू गए at 55.58 CNY with a 25.04% increase, and 新铝时代 at 74.10 CNY with a 20% increase [6] - The top losers included *ST 嘉寓 at 0.43 CNY with a 20.37% decrease, and 创意信息 at 7.34 CNY with a 20.04% decrease [6]

Core Viewpoint - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) reported a stable performance in 2024, with a slight increase in revenue and a significant rise in net profit, despite challenges in oil prices [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, CNOOC achieved total revenue of 420.506 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 137.936 billion yuan, up 11.4% year-on-year [1]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 94.482 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.9% year-on-year and 4.8% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 21.277 billion yuan, down 18.8% year-on-year and 42.4% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Oil Price Stability - The average Brent crude oil futures price in 2024 remained stable at 79.86 USD per barrel, a decrease of 2.81% year-on-year, while the realized price for CNOOC's crude oil was 76.75 USD per barrel, down 1.6% year-on-year [2]. Production Growth - CNOOC's total oil and gas production reached 727 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2024, an increase of 7.2% year-on-year [3]. - The company's capital expenditure for 2024 was 132.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.2% year-on-year increase, indicating a commitment to maintaining high levels of investment [3]. Dividend Policy - CNOOC maintained a strong dividend policy, with total cash dividends of 61.621 billion yuan in 2024, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of approximately 45% [4]. - The dividend yield for A-shares was 4.4% and for H-shares was 7.3%, with a commitment to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% from 2025 to 2027 [4]. Investment Outlook - CNOOC is expected to continue benefiting from new project launches, with projected net profits of 132.3 billion yuan, 136 billion yuan, and 140.1 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 2.78 yuan, 2.86 yuan, and 2.95 yuan for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 9.3X, 9.0X, and 8.8X [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) with a target price of 32.45 CNY [2][8]. Core Insights - CNOOC's 2024 annual report shows a revenue of 420.51 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.94%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 137.94 billion CNY, up 11.38% year-on-year. The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 0.66 HKD per share, leading to an expected payout ratio of 44.7% [2][4]. - The company achieved oil and gas sales revenue of approximately 355.62 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting an 8.4% year-on-year increase, primarily due to increased sales volume and exchange rate fluctuations [8]. - CNOOC's production volume reached 726.8 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2024, representing a 7.2% increase year-on-year, driven by contributions from domestic fields and international projects [8]. - The company has optimized its cost structure, with the main cost per barrel of oil at 28.52 USD, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year [8]. - CNOOC's balance sheet has improved, with a capital debt ratio declining by 4.3 percentage points to 10.9%, and the company has committed to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% for the years 2025-2027 [8]. Financial Summary - For 2024, CNOOC's total revenue is projected at 420.51 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 0.9% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 137.94 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 11.4% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 2.90 CNY, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9 [4]. - The company anticipates a steady increase in revenue and profit over the next few years, with projected revenues of 431.35 billion CNY in 2025 and 443.31 billion CNY in 2026 [4]. Investment Recommendations - Based on current oil price trends and production growth, the report forecasts net profits of 140.3 billion CNY, 143.7 billion CNY, and 147.9 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9 for 2025 and 2026, and 8 for 2027 [8].

从中证沪港深500能源指数持仓的市场板块来看，上海证券交易所占比49.67%、香港证券交易所占比 48.52%、深圳证券交易所占比1.81%。 从中证沪港深500能源指数持仓样本的行业来看，煤炭占比35.97%、综合性石油与天然气企业占比 35.45%、燃油炼制占比21.43%、焦炭占比3.10%、油气流通及其他占比2.56%、油田服务占比1.48%。 金融界3月31日消息，上证指数下跌0.46%，中证沪港深500能源指数 (沪港深500能源，H30458)报 2107.05点。 数据统计显示，中证沪港深500能源指数近一个月上涨2.88%，近三个月下跌7.24%，年至今下跌 8.78%。 据了解，中证沪港深行业指数系列将中证沪港深 500、中证沪港深互联互通中小综合以及中证沪港深互 联互通综合指数样本按行业分类标准分别分为 11 个行业，再以各行业全部证券作为样本编制指数，以 反映中证沪港深指数系列中不同行业公司证券的整体表现。该指数以2004年12月31日为基日，以1000.0 点为基点。 从指数持仓来看，中证沪港深500能源指数十大权重分别为：中国海洋石油（16.54%）、中国神华 （11.31%）、中 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/石油天然气 证券研究报告 中国海油（600938）公司年报点评 2025 年 03 月 30 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 股票数据 分析师:朱军军 Tel:(021)23185963 Email:zjj10419@haitong.com 证书:S0850517070005 分析师:张海榕 Tel:(021)23185607 Email:zhr14674@haitong.com 证书:S0850524070007 主要财务数据及预测 | [Table_FinanceInfo] | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 416609 | 420506 | 419081 | 420569 | 422716 | | (+/-)YoY(%) | -1.3% | 0.9% | -0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | | 净利润（百万元） | 123843 | 137936 | 115047 | ...