A股贵金属板块多股低开，湖南白银跌超3%，西部黄金跌超2%，赤峰黄金、山金国际等跟跌。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Lianhe Securities on July 30 recommends a "buy" rating for Chifeng Gold (600988.SH) based on its strong operational capabilities and favorable market conditions for gold in the upcoming quarters [2] Group 1: Company Operations - Chifeng Gold manages and operates four gold mines domestically, which forms the foundation of its gold supply system [2] - The company also manages and operates two gold mines internationally, representing a strategic attempt at internationalization [2] Group 2: Resource and Cost Management - The company possesses excellent resource endowments and demonstrates outstanding cost control capabilities [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - Although short-term gold prices may face pressure, the expected downside is limited, with potential upward opportunities in the fourth quarter driven by anticipated liquidity easing from a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [2]

格隆汇7月30日｜联储证券研报指出，赤峰黄金主要在全球范围内从事黄金的采选和销售业务，是我国 最大的民营黄金生产商。境内管理并运营四座贵金属矿山，是公司黄金供应体系基石。五龙金矿和吉隆 撰山子金矿是公司国内金矿产出的核心，矿区黄金年产量稳定，勘探增储成果显著，重点工程建设持续 推进。境外管理并运营两座贵金属矿山，是公司国际化路线的战略尝试。长期来看，《大而美法案》进 一步加剧美国原本沉重的债务负担，对于黄金市场有望接力关税，为金价的长线趋势上行带来潜在机 遇。参考可比公司，结合公司未来发展前景，对其进行首次覆盖，同时给予公司"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. is recognized as the largest private gold producer in China, with a strong focus on gold mining and sales globally, and has been given a "Buy" rating in a recent research report [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company operates four precious metal mines domestically, with the Five Dragon Mine and Jilong Shanzizi Mine being the core contributors to its gold output, maintaining stable annual production and significant exploration results [1] - Internationally, the company manages two precious metal mines, with the Saipan Mine being a key player in gold production and the Vasa Mine acquired in 2022 expected to be a major source of future gold increments [1][2] Group 2: Resource and Cost Management - The company possesses excellent resource endowments and outstanding cost control capabilities, with its domestic mines being high-grade deposits that are rare in the domestic gold market, leading to top-tier profitability [2] - The company has a strategic focus on cost control, which has significantly improved its profitability and debt management, laying a solid foundation for future resource expansion and mergers [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - Short-term gold prices may face pressure, but the downside potential is limited, with expected upward momentum in the fourth quarter driven by anticipated liquidity easing from the Federal Reserve's policy shift [3] - The long-term outlook suggests that the U.S. debt burden exacerbated by the "Big and Beautiful Act" could provide potential opportunities for gold prices to trend upward [3] Group 4: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 12.205 billion yuan, 14.104 billion yuan, and 15.279 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to be 3.692 billion yuan, 4.311 billion yuan, and 4.886 billion yuan for the same years [4] - The current market valuation corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 13.76, 11.78, and 10.4 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, supporting the "Buy" rating based on future growth prospects [4] Group 5: Analyst Ratings - In the last 90 days, eight institutions have rated the stock, with seven "Buy" ratings and one "Hold" rating, and the average target price among institutions is 40.09 yuan [8]

投资建议：降息预期存在不确定性，短期内铜价在美国关税影响下冲高，但伦敦、上海 等市场可能存在短期供给不足的冲击。建议关注有成长性和增长潜力的工业金属龙头，紫金 矿业（600988.SH）、洛阳钼业（603993.SH）、西部矿业（601168.SH）。 美联储降息预期对主要金属品种价格形成较强支撑，美国铜关税的生效落地短期内可能 对全球不同市场价格产生冲击。维持有色金属行业"推荐"评级。 特朗普施压美联储加快降息，美联储内部对降息节奏产生分歧。近一段时期以来，特朗 普及其内阁成员等多位官员不断对鲍威尔施压，要求美联储尽快降低利率3个百分点，降至 1%左右。近日，特朗普亲自访问美联储，与鲍威尔进行会谈，并声称会谈效果很好，美国 总统亲自访问美联储这一罕见行为引起市场对美联储独立性的担忧。尽管在降息节奏问题 上，议息会议成员内部之间仍面临分歧，多数成员都倾向于观望经济走势和通胀数据，但在 特朗普的压力和声称要解雇鲍威尔的威胁之下，美联储降息似乎只是时间问题，而目前内部 分歧为下一次议息会议增加了不确定性。在降息预期不断加强的背景下，金、铜等金属的金 融属性有望继续增强，下方支撑稳固。 美国铜关税导致全球铜库存转移 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Views - Precious metals are expected to continue their upward trend, with gold prices rising and a favorable long-term outlook. The gold-silver ratio has reached a peak of over 100 this year, and as gold prices stabilize, silver prices are expected to rise to restore the ratio [5]. - Industrial metal prices are on the rise, driven by significant infrastructure projects, such as the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, which is expected to boost overall demand and support metal prices [5]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly in precious metals, as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle and domestic monetary policies strengthen [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - Gold prices have increased by 0.26% and silver by 2.24% in the week of July 21-25, 2025. The gold-silver ratio has decreased to 86.13, indicating potential for silver price increases [5]. 1.2 Industrial Metals - Prices for copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel have increased by 1.8%, 1.7%, 0.7%, 3.4%, 3.7%, and 3.7% respectively. The overall demand is expected to rise due to major infrastructure projects [5][28]. 1.3 Minor Metals - Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide have increased by 7.5% weekly, with a year-on-year increase of 41.3%. Tungsten prices have also risen significantly, indicating a recovery in manufacturing demand [5][30][32]. 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium concentrate prices have risen by 10.5% weekly, while cobalt prices remain stable. Nickel prices have also increased, reflecting growing demand in the energy sector [5][35]. 2. Market Data - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen a 6.70% increase, with specific segments like industrial metals and energy metals rising by 4.72% and 12.40% respectively during the week [36]. 3. Important Events Review - Notable events include President Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve, where discussions on interest rates took place, indicating potential future monetary policy changes that could impact the metals market [43].

Group 1 - The metal lead concept declined by 1.70% as of the close on July 28, ranking among the top declines in the concept sector, with companies like Zhejiang Fu Holdings, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Hunan Gold experiencing significant drops [1] - The metal lead concept saw a net outflow of 1.204 billion yuan from main funds today, with 26 stocks experiencing net outflows, and 8 stocks seeing outflows exceeding 50 million yuan. The largest net outflow was from Chifeng Gold, which had a net outflow of 233 million yuan [2] - The stocks with the largest net outflows in the metal lead concept included Chifeng Gold, Xingye Silver Tin, and Zhejiang Fu Holdings, with net outflows of 233 million yuan, 131 million yuan, and 123 million yuan respectively [2][3] Group 2 - The top gainers in the concept sectors today included PCB concept with a gain of 4.33%, while the metal lead concept was among the top decliners with a drop of 1.70% [2] - The main funds saw net inflows in stocks such as Zijin Mining, Western Mining, and Tibet Summit, with net inflows of 47.6 million yuan, 17.7 million yuan, and 7.3 million yuan respectively [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have been significantly influenced by speculative demand and short-term arbitrage, but long-term demand from central bank purchases and financial investments is expected to support gold prices, leading to a potential rise above $3,700 per ounce by the end of the year [1] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may signal interest rate cuts, which would support liquidity and consequently gold prices, amidst ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [1][2] - The gold stock ETF has shown a year-to-date net value increase of 29.36%, with a historical one-year profit probability of 100% [3] Group 2 - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Hong Kong and Shanghai Gold Industry Index account for 66.13% of the index [4] - The performance of the top ten holdings in the gold stock ETF shows mixed results, with some stocks experiencing declines while others, like Zijin Mining and Chow Tai Fook, have seen slight increases [7] - The gold stock ETF fund has a management fee rate of 0.50% and a custody fee rate of 0.10%, indicating a relatively low cost for investors [3]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Views - Gold prices are expected to fluctuate due to tariff agreements and Federal Reserve independence issues, with prices initially rising before declining [2][9] - Copper prices are supported by positive market sentiment and upcoming tariff implementation, despite potential supply and demand pressures [10][12] - The aluminum sector is experiencing price fluctuations influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and inventory levels, with long-term demand expected to remain strong [11][12] Summary by Sections Weekly Research Insights - Gold prices are under pressure due to evolving tariff agreements and scrutiny of the Federal Reserve's independence, with a long-term bullish outlook on gold [9] - Copper prices are supported by positive sentiment in the domestic commodity market and upcoming tariff changes, with a long-term optimistic outlook [10] - Aluminum prices are influenced by macroeconomic factors and inventory levels, with expectations of sustained high profitability in the sector [11] Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal index increased by 7.10%, outperforming the broader market by 5.43%, ranking third among 30 sub-industries [12] - The top-performing sectors include tungsten, lithium, and rare earth materials, with significant individual stock gains [12] Metal Prices and Inventory - Prices for various metals, including lithium and cobalt, have shown significant increases, indicating strong demand and market dynamics [22][24][27] - Basic metals have generally seen price increases both domestically and internationally, with specific price movements detailed for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin [27][28] - Inventory levels for metals such as copper and aluminum have shown mixed trends, impacting market supply dynamics [35][36]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Views - The macroeconomic outlook is improving, leading to a comprehensive rise in metal prices, particularly strategic metals [2][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic metals and bottom energy metal allocation opportunities, highlighting the revaluation of rare earths and tungsten [4] - The report suggests that the domestic growth stabilization and anti-involution policies are enhancing expectations, which is driving up domestic commodity prices [5][6] Summary by Sections Strategic Metals - Strategic metals such as rare earths and tungsten are experiencing a revaluation, with significant price increases expected due to government focus and international supply chain developments [4] - The price of rare earth concentrate has increased to 19,100 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.5% increase [4] - Tungsten prices are also on the rise, supported by strong supply dynamics and improving company performance [4] Energy Metals - The report indicates a high probability of short-term price increases for cobalt, with a significant drop in imports noted [4] - Cobalt intermediate imports in June fell to 18,991 tons, a decrease of 61.6% month-on-month [4] - Nickel prices are expected to stabilize, with long-term price expectations likely to rise [4] Lithium - The report notes a bottoming out of lithium prices, with recent regulatory changes indicating stricter domestic mining controls [4] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has rebounded by 15.2% to 76 CNY/kg [24] - The report suggests monitoring potential resource releases in the lithium sector [4] Precious Metals - Gold prices are fluctuating due to improved risk appetite and easing trade tensions, with a recommendation to increase allocation to precious metal stocks [4][6] - The report highlights that gold stocks have underperformed, suggesting a strategic buying opportunity [4] - Silver is noted for its potential upside, with a recommendation to consider silver stocks for recovery [4] Industrial Metals - The report indicates that industrial metals are experiencing mixed performance, with domestic prices leading international trends [5][6] - Copper prices on the SHFE increased by 1.1%, while aluminum prices rose by 1.2% [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic policies and their impact on metal demand [6]