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“全球最贵声音”发出,15家券商解读美联储降息
Feng Huang Wang· 2025-09-18 12:13
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points marks the beginning of a new preventive rate-cutting cycle, with expectations for further cuts in October and December [1][2][3]. Summary by Relevant Categories Interest Rate Outlook - Most brokerages anticipate an additional 50 basis points of cuts within the year, with a general consensus on two more cuts expected [1][3][9]. - The Fed's internal decision-making shows significant divergence, leading to uncertainty in future rate paths [1][4][11]. Economic Projections - The prevailing view is a soft landing for the U.S. economy, although some firms warn that excessive monetary easing could lead to stagflation risks [1][4][7][11]. - Analysts express mixed views on the economic outlook, with some highlighting the potential for continued support for U.S. equities and bonds [3][9][10]. Market Reactions - Following the rate cut, there is an expectation of increased volatility in risk assets, with a short-term positive outlook for U.S. stocks [3][6][12]. - The market had largely priced in the rate cut, leading to initial gains in bonds and equities, followed by corrections [6][12]. Sector Impacts - The real estate and manufacturing sectors are expected to benefit first from the rate cuts, while the overall sentiment in the A-share market remains positive [7][8][9]. - The potential for increased foreign capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks is noted, particularly if synchronized easing occurs between the U.S. and China [5][8]. Divergence in Analyst Opinions - Analysts from different firms express varying views on the Fed's future actions, with some suggesting a more hawkish stance despite the rate cuts [2][4][13]. - The Fed's communication strategy is seen as a balancing act between addressing employment risks and managing inflation expectations [11][14].
朗坤科技跌5.17% 2023上市见顶募15.4亿招商证券保荐
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-09-18 09:09
Core Points - Langkun Technology's stock price fell by 5.17% to 21.09 yuan as of the close on September 18, 2023 [1] - The company was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's ChiNext board on May 23, 2023, with an initial offering price of 25.25 yuan per share [1] - The stock reached its highest price of 29.57 yuan on May 25, 2023, just two days after listing, but is currently in a state of decline [1] Fundraising and Financials - Langkun Technology raised a total of 153.75 million yuan through its initial public offering (IPO), with a net amount of 142.50 million yuan after expenses [1] - The net fundraising amount exceeded the original plan by 30.27 million yuan [1] - The funds are intended for projects including an organic waste resource treatment facility in Zhongshan, a research and development center, and working capital [1] IPO Costs - The total expenses related to the IPO amounted to 11.25 million yuan, with underwriting and sponsorship fees accounting for 8.63 million yuan [1]
超175亿元“红包”在路上!上市券商中期分红来了
Core Viewpoint - The cash dividends from A-share listed brokerages for the first half of 2025 are being distributed, supported by improved operating performance in the sector [1][2][4]. Group 1: Cash Dividends Distribution - On September 18, 2025, China Merchants Securities distributed a cash dividend of 0.119 yuan per share, totaling 1.035 billion yuan [2]. - Nanjing Securities plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.05 yuan per share, totaling 184 million yuan, with the payment date set for September 19 [1][2]. - First Capital's cash dividend distribution plan includes 0.01 yuan per share, totaling 42.024 million yuan, with the payment date on September 24 [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, China Merchants Securities reported operating income of 10.52 billion yuan and a net profit of 5.186 billion yuan, both showing over 9% year-on-year growth [2]. - Nanjing Securities achieved operating income of 1.578 billion yuan, a nearly 6% decline year-on-year, while net profit increased by 13.65% to 621 million yuan [2][3]. - First Capital's operating income reached 1.832 billion yuan, with a net profit of 486 million yuan, both exceeding 20% year-on-year growth [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Investment Value - The positive performance of the A-share market in the first half of 2025 has provided a solid foundation for mid-term equity distribution among listed brokerages [4]. - The brokerage sector is expected to continue benefiting from increased trading activity and improved earnings, with a focus on brokerage, margin financing, and investment business revenues [4]. - Investment opportunities are suggested in brokerages with high revenue contributions from brokerage and margin financing, those with significant year-on-year performance improvements, and potential merger targets [4].
兵临3900点再回落,指数突破看券商?机构提示回调布局机会,顶流券商ETF(512000)跌超2%
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-09-18 08:10
Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high of 3899.96 points on September 18, before retreating in the afternoon [1] - The brokerage sector declined alongside the market, with the 300 billion yuan leading brokerage ETF (512000) experiencing a price drop of over 2% at one point, currently down 1.82% with a real-time transaction volume of 1.76 billion yuan, surpassing the previous day's total [1] Fund Flows - The brokerage ETF (512000) saw a net inflow of 359 million yuan on the latest trading day, accumulating a total net inflow of 5.191 billion yuan over the past 15 trading days [2] - The latest scale of the brokerage ETF (512000) exceeded 34 billion yuan, setting a new historical high, with an average daily transaction volume of 957 million yuan this year [4] Valuation Metrics - As of September 15, the price-to-book (PB) ratio of the brokerage sector was 1.58 times, positioned at the 43.84 percentile over the past decade [4] - Institutional holdings in the sector were at 0.90%, which, while higher than the previous year's third quarter, remains below the benchmark of 4.26% [4] Market Outlook - Analysts from China Merchants Securities suggest that the brokerage sector, as a "flag bearer" of the bull market, deserves more attention and allocation in portfolios [4] - Yingda Securities indicates that the A-share market is likely to continue a trend of oscillating upward, with the brokerage sector benefiting from increased market activity and direct profits from brokerage and margin financing businesses [4]
招商证券:维持复宏汉霖(02696)“强烈推荐”评级 看好HLX43的成药潜力
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-18 07:39
公司此次更新的HLX43患者数据来自于Ia期与Ib期2.0 mg/kg剂量组及2.5 mg/kg剂量组。共计56例NSCLC 患者入组Ia期及Ib期2.0和2.5 mg/kg剂量组,其中29例(51.8%)为鳞状,27例(48.2%)为非鳞状。其中,非 鳞状NSCLC患者中位既往治疗线数为2,鳞状NSCLC患者中位既往治疗线数为3。在四线及以后的鳞状 NSCLC患者(n=28)中,HLX43的ORR为28.6%,DCR为82.1%,较标准治疗药物多西他赛(ORR=12.8%) 展现出显著的临床获益。值得关注的是,既往接受过多西他赛治疗的三线及后线NSCLC患者 (n=10)ORR达30.0%,DCR为80%;接受2 mg/kg剂量HLX43治疗患者(n=15)ORR达40.0%,DCR为73.3%, 提示HLX43在肺鳞癌后线治疗中的重要潜力。在三线及以后的非鳞状NSCLC人群中(n=26),ORR达 46.2%,DCR为96.2%。 (原标题:招商证券:维持复宏汉霖(02696)"强烈推荐"评级 看好HLX43的成药潜力) 智通财经APP获悉,招商证券发布研报称,维持复宏汉霖(02696)"强烈推荐"评级。 ...
招商证券:维持复宏汉霖“强烈推荐”评级 看好HLX43的成药潜力
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-18 07:38
值得关注的是,EGFR野生型非鳞状NSCLC患者(n=15)的经确认客观缓解率(cORR)为46.7%,DCR达 93.3%。接受2.5mg/kg剂量HLX43治疗的患者(n=5)cORR高达60.0%,DCR为80%,彰显HLX43在非鳞状 NSCLC患者人群中更为显著的疗效优势。安全性方面,最常见的≥3级治疗相关不良事件(TRAEs)为贫血 (19.6%)、白细胞计数减少(19.6%)、中性粒细胞计数减少(16.1%)及淋巴细胞计数减少(12.5%),血小板计 数减少仅3.6%。与此前在2025ASCO上披露的安全性一致,HLX43血液学毒性较低,延续了良好的安全 性,支持未来扩展至一线疗法及联合治疗方案。 该行指,目前复宏汉霖正全力推进HLX43的临床开发进程,已在全球入组超过300例患者,并在中国、 美国、日本等多国顺利推进患者入组。同时公司正在积极探索HLX43在多种实体瘤中的治疗潜力,包 括宫颈癌、肝细胞癌、食管鳞癌、头颈鳞癌、鼻咽癌、结直肠癌、胃癌/胃食管交界部癌等,持续挖掘 治疗潜力。单药之外,HLX43联用其他产品的临床试验也正在进行中,进一步探索"ADC+IO"的协同抗 肿瘤疗效。 公司此 ...
XD招商证成交额创2024年12月11日以来新高
(文章来源:证券时报网) 数据宝统计,截至14:21,XD招商证成交额18.79亿元,创2024年12月11日以来新高。最新股价下跌 1.56%,换手率1.47%。上一交易日该股全天成交额为18.78亿元。 据天眼查APP显示,招商证券股份有限公司成立于1993年08月01日。注册资本869652.6806万人民币。 (数据宝) ...
AI进行时,如何掘金港股科技?|2025招商证券“招财杯”ETF实盘大赛
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-18 06:32
Group 1 - The "Zhaocai Cup" ETF live competition series aims to enhance investors' asset allocation and risk management skills, promoting the healthy development of the ETF market [1] - The recent probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut has increased, which may lead to a more favorable liquidity environment for the Hong Kong stock market, particularly benefiting the Hang Seng Technology Index [1][19] - Investors with limited time for industry and company analysis are encouraged to consider index products, especially those interested in both technology and pharmaceutical sectors [1][28] Group 2 - The Hong Kong technology sector experienced two significant market rallies this year, driven by factors such as valuation attractiveness and the emergence of DeepSeek technology [2][3] - DeepSeek's R2 model has positioned China as a core competitor in the AI field, leading to a revaluation of Chinese tech assets and increased investor confidence [2] - The first rally in Q1 was primarily driven by valuation and the success of DeepSeek, while the second rally from late April to early June was fueled by liquidity conditions and significant inflows from southbound funds [3][21] Group 3 - The domestic AI industry has advantages in application, with a growing number of companies and a market size nearing 600 billion yuan, indicating a robust ecosystem for AI applications [5][6] - China has a unique market advantage due to its large population and demand for AI applications, which supports rapid innovation and commercialization [5] - The AI chip sector, while lagging, is seeing the emergence of strong domestic players, with companies like Alibaba preparing for future developments in AI chips [7][12] Group 4 - AI applications are entering a phase of accelerated commercialization, with companies like Kuaishou and Meitu reporting rapid revenue growth from AI products [8][9] - The government has set ambitious goals for AI integration across various sectors by 2035, indicating a strong push for AI adoption [8] - AI programming is expected to be one of the first core applications to achieve widespread adoption, driven by advancements in large models [9] Group 5 - The Hong Kong stock market's technology sector is currently undervalued compared to global peers, with the Hang Seng Technology Index trading at a PE-TTM of less than 22 times, indicating potential for upward movement [24][26] - The anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts are expected to improve liquidity conditions, benefiting the technology sector in Hong Kong [25][26] - Southbound funds have significantly increased their investments in Hong Kong stocks, particularly in technology and high-dividend assets, reflecting strong demand from mainland investors [21][23] Group 6 - The performance of major companies like Alibaba and Tencent in the AI sector has exceeded market expectations, with significant growth in cloud services and AI-related revenues [16][17] - Alibaba's cloud business reported a 26% year-on-year revenue increase, while Tencent's AI investments have become a core driver of its business growth [16][17] - The overall positive performance of these companies is likely to enhance the valuation sentiment for Chinese assets in the global market [18]
强贝塔属性券商板块将迎来景气度上行,顶流券商ETF(512000)午后放量规模破346亿再创纪录!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-18 06:24
Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of the brokerage sector is under pressure, with the CSI All Share Securities Company Index experiencing a decline, while the brokerage ETF shows significant inflows and growth in scale and shares [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 18, 2025, the CSI All Share Securities Company Index (399975) fell by 1.91%, with major declines seen in stocks like Great Wall Securities and Guosheng Financial Holdings [1]. - The brokerage ETF (512000) has seen a trading volume of 16.38 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 4.78% [2]. - The brokerage ETF's net inflow over the past 15 days reached 51.91 billion yuan, averaging 3.46 billion yuan per day [2]. Group 2: Fund Performance - The brokerage ETF's latest scale reached 34.679 billion yuan, marking a one-year high and ranking second among comparable funds [2]. - The ETF's share count has also hit a one-year high at 57.169 billion shares, leading among comparable funds [2]. - Over the past year, the brokerage ETF's net value has increased by 57.23% [2]. Group 3: Industry Insights - Industry experts suggest that the return on equity (ROE) and valuations of brokerages have room for growth due to the ongoing high-quality development of China's capital markets [3]. - The concentration of the brokerage industry is expected to increase, supported by policies encouraging mergers and acquisitions among quality brokerages [3]. - Recent performance meetings of listed brokerages highlighted strong growth in the first half of the year, with a focus on mergers, refinancing, and international business developments [2][3].
研报掘金|招商证券:首予联邦制药“强烈推荐”评级 创新药后续管线丰富
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-09-18 05:33
该行认为,公司中间体原料药具有龙头地位、竞争格局稳定,短期受需求减弱而承压;又认为行业竞争 格局稳固,联邦为青霉素绝对龙头,随着需求趋稳,有望企稳回升。该行预计公司2025至2027年分别实 现收入133.5亿、127.7亿、139.3亿元,实现归母净利润分别为25.9亿、23.4亿、25.2亿元。 招商证券发表研究报告指,首予联邦制药"强烈推荐"评级,认为公司主业抗生素有望逐步企稳,胰岛 素、动保持续开拓增长新曲线,创新加速发展,成长空间广阔。创新药方面,公司三靶点GLP-1激动剂 UBT251海外权益成功授权诺和诺德,有望持续贡献催化,后续减重管线中长效PYY类似物、口服GLP- 1小分子早期数据优异,有出海潜力,建议关注。 ...