Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates that the high-level autonomous driving sector in China and the U.S. is advancing simultaneously, suggesting that the autonomous driving segment is expected to break out of its recent downturn [1] Group 1: Industry Developments - China's L3 production access has achieved institutional implementation, with a cautious and orderly pace of commercialization [1] - Tesla's Robotaxi testing without safety drivers is progressing, indicating rapid evolution in autonomous driving technology [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends the following companies for investment: Xpeng Motors-W (09868) and Tesla (TSLA.US) for complete vehicles [1] - For components, the report suggests Horizon Robotics-W (09660) and Hesai Technology-W (02525) [1] - For Robotaxi operations, the recommendation is for Pony.ai-W (02026) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Different Group (06090), highlighting its clear brand positioning, strong product development, and channel expansion capabilities, which open up growth opportunities in overseas markets targeting middle-class and high-net-worth individuals [1] Financial Performance - Different Group (BeBeBus) has shown impressive financial performance, with revenue projected to grow from 507 million in 2022 to 1.249 billion in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 57%. Net profit is expected to reach 59 million in 2024, with 2025 H1 revenue at 726 million (+25%) and net profit at 49 million (+72%) [1] Product Development and Market Focus - Since its launch in 2019, the core brand BeBeBus has focused on high-value family segments, offering products across four key scenarios: parent-child travel, baby sleep, parent-child feeding, and hygiene care. The main growth drivers have shifted from travel to baby care and feeding, with baby care accounting for 42% of sales in 2025 H1, surpassing travel at 36% [2] Sales Channels and Growth - In 2025 H1, over 70% of the company's revenue came from online sales, with both online and offline channels showing balanced growth (+23% for online and +30% for offline). The company's premium product positioning has resulted in a stable gross margin of around 50%, with margins reported at 47.7%, 50.2%, 50.4%, and 49.4% from 2022 to 2025 H1 [2] Competitive Advantages - Different Group targets middle-class and high-net-worth individuals, who have stable incomes and prioritize brand quality and product functionality over price. The brand's precise positioning and the high-value nature of its products allow for natural extensions into baby care and feeding categories, leading to high repurchase rates [3] Brand Building and Market Presence - Collaborating with influencers on platforms like Xiaohongshu has rapidly enhanced brand visibility. BeBeBus's GMV on Tmall grew from 137 million in 2020 to 579 million in 2024, with 2024's figures already surpassed in the first 11 months of this year. GMV on Douyin reached 226 million in 2024, and JD's GMV hit 400 million in 2024, with 416 million achieved in the first 11 months of this year [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that China Merchants Securities has shown significant financial performance with a notable increase in revenue and net profit for the first nine months of 2025, alongside active trading metrics in the stock market [2][3]. Group 2 - As of December 19, 2023, China Merchants Securities' stock price increased by 0.12%, with a trading volume of 456 million yuan. The margin trading data indicates a net buying of 8.98 million yuan on that day, with a total margin balance of 2.673 billion yuan [1]. - The financing balance of China Merchants Securities is 2.670 billion yuan, accounting for 2.14% of its market capitalization, which is above the 70th percentile of the past year, indicating a high level of activity [1]. - On the short selling side, the company had a total of 17,350 shares available for short selling, with a balance of 2.918 million yuan, which is below the 20th percentile of the past year, indicating low short selling activity [1]. Group 3 - For the period from January to September 2025, China Merchants Securities reported an operating income of 18.244 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.76%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.871 billion yuan, up 24.08% year-on-year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 37.668 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 8.992 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders of China Merchants Securities increased to 175,900, reflecting a growth of 23.14% [2].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to stabilize and recover in risk appetite, with a spring rally anticipated in 2026 as the overseas environment becomes more stable and liquidity expectations are clarified [1][4][7]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Multiple brokerages indicate that a classic "cross-year-spring" rally is brewing, with significant institutional investors increasing their holdings in broad-based ETFs, providing stable incremental capital to the market [1][10][11]. - The spring market is characterized by a favorable liquidity environment, with historical patterns suggesting a high probability of a rebound before the Spring Festival [7][10]. - The market is currently experiencing a narrow range of fluctuations, influenced by external factors such as U.S. Federal Reserve policies and Japanese central bank actions, but is expected to resonate upward with global markets [8]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a strategy of finding buying points and waiting for opportunities, rather than chasing prices, as the market adjustment appears to be sufficient [2][12]. - Focus areas for investment include sectors benefiting from domestic demand, such as AI applications, commercial aerospace, and tourism, as well as cyclical recovery sectors [4][11][13]. - The spring rally is seen as an opportunity to invest in high-growth sectors, with recommendations to pay attention to industries like industrial metals, non-bank financials, and tourism-related services [11][14]. Group 3: Currency and Asset Allocation - Investors are encouraged to adapt to a continuously appreciating RMB environment, with certain industries expected to benefit from improved profit margins due to currency appreciation [3]. - Approximately 19% of industries may see profit margin improvements due to the RMB's appreciation, which could attract investor attention [3].

Company Overview - Zhaowei Electric (003021) has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with joint sponsors being China Merchants Securities International and Deutsche Bank [1] - The company is the largest provider of integrated micro drive and drive system products in China and the fourth largest globally, with market shares of 3.9% and 1.4% respectively based on 2024 revenue [1] Product and Innovation - The company designs and manufactures micro drive and drive system products along with their supporting components, including micro drive systems, precision parts, and custom molds [1] - Zhaowei Electric employs a "1+1+1" collaborative innovation system to create a "dual-engine" growth model, focusing on customized product development with leading clients and promoting standardized, large-scale development of platform-based self-owned brand products [1] - The company has launched three major platform-based self-owned brand products: high-performance servo motors, drum motors, and dexterous hands [1][2] Market Potential - The global integrated micro drive and drive system market is projected to grow from RMB 124.3 billion in 2025 to RMB 204.9 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.3% [2] - The Chinese market is expected to increase from RMB 38.4 billion in 2025 to RMB 72.6 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 17.3% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent stock deposit by ManpowerGroup (02180) into China Merchants Securities Hong Kong, with a market value of HKD 183 million, representing 16.76% of the total [1] - For the six months ending June 30, 2025, ManpowerGroup reported a revenue of RMB 3.418 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.93% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 62.332 million, which is a 14.6% increase compared to the previous year [1] - The basic earnings per share for the company stood at RMB 0.31, and it proposed an interim dividend of HKD 1.6 per share [1]

Core Viewpoint - The latest data from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange indicates that on December 19, shareholders of ManpowerGroup (02180) deposited shares worth HKD 183 million into China Merchants Securities Hong Kong, representing 16.76% of the total [1] Financial Performance - For the six months ending June 30, 2025, ManpowerGroup reported revenue of RMB 3.418 billion, an increase of 15.93% year-on-year [1] - The profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 62.332 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.6% [1] - Basic earnings per share were RMB 0.31, and the company proposed an interim dividend of HKD 1.6 per share [1]

Core Viewpoint - The securities industry in China has shown significant recovery in 2025, with a focus on enhancing its capabilities to serve the real economy and new productive forces, alongside a notable increase in investor asset allocation and satisfaction. The merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities marks a step towards building a first-class investment bank, while the industry continues to strengthen its overseas subsidiaries and deepen high-level openness [2][4][5]. Industry Development - The securities industry has increasingly demonstrated its functional capabilities, with total assets of 107 securities firms reaching 14.5 trillion yuan, a growth of over 10% from the end of 2024. Net assets rose to 3.3 trillion yuan, showing steady growth [5]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, 43 listed securities firms reported a combined operating income of 419.56 billion yuan, with an average year-on-year increase of 40%, and a net profit of 169.29 billion yuan, reflecting an average increase of 88.68% [5]. - The merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities has been completed, achieving a "1+1>2" effect, while other mergers, such as CICC with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, are in progress [4][5]. Investment Banking - The investment banking sector has shown signs of recovery, focusing on serving the real economy through equity financing, mergers and acquisitions, and cross-border service upgrades. The A-share IPO market saw over 100 companies listed, with total fundraising reaching 110 billion yuan [7][8]. - The Hong Kong IPO market has rebounded, with 91 companies completing IPOs and raising a total of 259.89 billion HKD, marking a significant recovery [8]. - Mergers and acquisitions have become a key avenue for investment banks to deepen their services to the real economy, with policies guiding the market towards industrial integration and transformation [8]. Wealth Management - The wealth management business of securities firms has seen significant growth, with a total revenue of approximately 145.03 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 37.4% [11]. - Brokerage fee income reached 111.78 billion yuan, up 74.64%, while asset management fees were 33.25 billion yuan, showing a modest increase [11]. - The transition from earning trading commissions to management and service fees is evident, with over 90% of new accounts opened online and more than 80% of transactions conducted via mobile apps [13]. Asset Management - The asset management industry is undergoing a restructuring, with the total scale of private asset management products reaching 5.79 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.95% from the beginning of the year [15]. - The pursuit of public fund licenses has been paused, with several firms withdrawing their applications, indicating a shift in focus towards private asset management strategies [16]. - Collaboration between asset management and wealth management is emerging as a new development path, with firms expected to enhance their offerings in active management and client service [17]. Mergers and Acquisitions - The wave of mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry has intensified, with significant deals such as the merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities and the absorption of Dongxing and Xinda Securities by CICC [18][19]. - Policies supporting the consolidation of leading firms aim to enhance core competitiveness and encourage differentiated development among smaller firms [19]. - The industry is expected to see a clearer new structure by 2026, with a focus on integrating resources and enhancing the international competitiveness of Chinese securities firms [19].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Short-term Timing Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to provide short-term market timing signals by analyzing macroeconomic fundamentals, valuation metrics, sentiment indicators, and liquidity conditions. It integrates these factors into a comprehensive signal for market timing decisions [16][17] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Macroeconomic Fundamentals**: - Manufacturing PMI: A value above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction. The latest PMI is 49.20, giving a cautious signal [16][19] - Credit Impulse: The current long-term loan pulse growth rate is at the 54.24% percentile over the past 5 years, providing a neutral signal [16][19] - M1 Growth Rate: The filtered M1 growth rate is at the 86.44% percentile, indicating strong growth and a positive signal [16][19] 2. **Valuation Metrics**: - PE Median: The current PE median is at the 93.55% percentile over the past 5 years, signaling caution [16][19] - PB Median: The current PB median is at the 90.57% percentile, also signaling caution [16][19] 3. **Sentiment Indicators**: - Beta Dispersion: At the 44.07% percentile, providing a neutral signal [17][19] - Volume Sentiment Score: At the 24.15% percentile, indicating weak sentiment and a cautious signal [17][19] - Volatility: At the 32.01% percentile, providing a neutral signal [17][19] 4. **Liquidity Conditions**: - Money Market Rate: At the 30.51% percentile, indicating relatively loose liquidity and a positive signal [17][19] - Exchange Rate Expectation: At the 30.51% percentile, indicating a strong RMB and a positive signal [17][19] - Average 5-day Financing Inflows: At the 51.70% percentile, providing a neutral signal [17][19] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong performance with significant annualized returns and reduced drawdowns compared to the benchmark [18][21] 2. Model Name: Growth-Value Style Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies rotation opportunities between growth and value styles based on macroeconomic cycles, valuation spreads, and sentiment differences [27][28] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Macroeconomic Fundamentals**: - Profit Cycle Slope: A steep slope benefits growth styles [27][29] - Interest Rate Cycle: High levels favor value styles [27][29] - Credit Cycle: Strengthening credit cycles benefit growth styles [27][29] 2. **Valuation Metrics**: - PE Spread: The 5-year percentile of the growth-value PE spread is 30.29%, favoring growth styles [27][29] - PB Spread: The 5-year percentile of the growth-value PB spread is 47.25%, also favoring growth styles [27][29] 3. **Sentiment Indicators**: - Turnover Spread: At the 40.86% percentile, indicating a neutral signal [28][29] - Volatility Spread: At the 65.89% percentile, indicating a neutral signal [28][29] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has delivered consistent annualized returns and outperformed the benchmark in most years, though it underperformed slightly in 2025 [28][30] 3. Model Name: Small-Cap vs. Large-Cap Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates the relative performance of small-cap and large-cap stocks using 11 effective rotation indicators, including liquidity, sentiment, and valuation metrics [31][33] - **Model Construction Process**: - Key Indicators: - **Liquidity Metrics**: R007 and financing balance changes, both favoring large-cap stocks [31][33] - **Sentiment Metrics**: Theme trading sentiment and beta dispersion, both favoring large-cap stocks [31][33] - **Valuation Metrics**: PB dispersion and MACD signals, favoring large-cap stocks [31][33] - Comprehensive Signal: The model aggregates these indicators into a composite signal, which currently suggests a 100% allocation to large-cap stocks [31][33] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has consistently generated positive annualized excess returns since 2014, with strong performance in 2025 [32][33] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Short-term Timing Strategy - **Annualized Return**: 16.37% (Benchmark: 4.76%) [18][21] - **Annualized Volatility**: 14.79% (Benchmark: 11.59%) [18][21] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 14.07% (Benchmark: 31.41%) [18][21] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.9641 (Benchmark: 0.2865) [18][21] - **2025 Performance**: Strategy Return: 23.60%, Benchmark Return: 13.41%, Excess Return: 10.19% [18][21] 2. Growth-Value Style Rotation Model - **Annualized Return**: 12.71% (Benchmark: 7.96%) [28][30] - **Annualized Volatility**: 20.79% (Benchmark: 20.64%) [28][30] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 43.07% (Benchmark: 44.13%) [28][30] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.5842 (Benchmark: 0.3782) [28][30] - **2025 Performance**: Strategy Return: 25.36%, Benchmark Return: 26.19%, Excess Return: -0.84% [28][30] 3. Small-Cap vs. Large-Cap Rotation Model - **Annualized Return**: 33.64% (Benchmark: 22.11%) [32][33] - **Annualized Excess Return**: 11.53% [32][33] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 40.70% [32][33] - **2025 Performance**: Strategy Return: 33.64%, Benchmark Return: 22.11%, Excess Return: 11.53% [32][33]

Core Viewpoint - The year 2026 is projected to be a turning point for China's economy, moving away from low inflation and establishing a "new equilibrium" as per the consensus among major securities firms [1]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Growth and Price Recovery - Major securities firms, including China Merchants, Ping An, and West Securities, agree that the Chinese economy will emerge from the low inflation phase, with expectations of nominal GDP growth recovery driven by price factor improvements [1][5]. - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to limit supply, combined with the pig cycle bottoming out and PPI turning positive, which will be key in improving corporate profitability and nominal GDP [1][5][6]. Group 2: Structural Transition and New Growth Drivers - 2026 is seen as a critical juncture for the transition between old and new growth drivers, with real estate investment entering a bottoming phase while AI, data center energy demand, and high-end manufacturing are expected to become substantial growth engines [1][5][21]. - The consensus is that the economy will experience a "new-old relay" with significant changes in investment structures, particularly in manufacturing and real estate [1][21]. Group 3: Demand-Side Drivers - There is a divergence in views regarding demand-side drivers; some firms like Minsheng and Northeast Securities believe external demand will outperform internal demand, while others like West Securities and Shenwan Hongyuan predict a shift towards internal demand dominance [1][5][21]. Group 4: Asset Allocation and Market Style Predictions - Opinions on asset allocation and market style are highly varied, with Haitong International being the most optimistic, predicting a 40% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index based on "value re-evaluation" logic [2][50]. - China Merchants Securities anticipates a shift from "policy-driven" to "profit-driven" market dynamics, while others suggest a more balanced focus on both growth and cyclical opportunities [2][21]. Group 5: Key Predictions from Securities Firms - China Merchants Securities predicts a recovery in corporate profits and a shift in policy focus towards enhancing development quality, with manufacturing investment expected to grow by 5% and real estate investment's decline narrowing to -8% [5][10]. - Ping An Securities emphasizes the importance of price recovery, forecasting CPI to rise to 0.6% and PPI to narrow its decline significantly [16][18]. - West Securities expects nominal GDP growth to accelerate, driven by inflation recovery and the emergence of new growth forces [21][23]. Group 6: External Environment and Trade Dynamics - The external environment is expected to improve, with strong export performance contributing significantly to GDP growth, projected to be around 40%-50% from actual export growth [11][44]. - The report from Northeast Securities highlights that external demand will recover before internal demand, with exports expected to grow by approximately 7% [44][45].