Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal mining industry has seen an unexpected improvement in fundamentals as of July 2025, with significant changes in production and demand dynamics [2][7] - The report highlights a notable decline in coal production and imports in July, alongside a significant increase in thermal power demand due to high temperatures [11][30] - The overall supply of coal has contracted, while demand from key sectors such as electricity generation has shown signs of recovery [12][50] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The coal mining sector's performance over the last month shows a 6.8% increase over one month, a 3.5% increase over three months, but a 5.2% decrease over twelve months [4] Supply Dynamics - In July 2025, the production of raw coal decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, with a daily average production of 12.29 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month reduction of 1.746 million tons per day [19][21] - The report notes that coal imports in July 2025 were 35.609 million tons, down 23% year-on-year, indicating a tightening supply [9][29] Demand Dynamics - The demand for thermal power increased significantly in July, with a year-on-year growth of 4.3%, marking a 3.2 percentage point increase from June [11][30] - The report estimates that the four major industries (electricity, steel, chemicals, and construction materials) contributed to a 3.8% year-on-year increase in coal consumption in July [50] Inventory Management - By the end of July, coal inventories at production enterprises decreased by 168,000 tons to 4.096 million tons, indicating effective inventory management [51][52] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on stable companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as companies with greater elasticity in thermal coal like Yanzhou Coal and Jinneng Holding [12][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious recommendation for Lu'an Huanneng and a recommendation for Jin Control Coal Industry, Huayang Co., Shanxi Coal International, China Shenhua, Zhongmei Energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry, and Zhongguang Nuclear Mining [3][4][10]. Core Viewpoints - Supply contraction is evident, with port inventories declining again and coal prices showing sufficient elasticity. Since April, domestic production and imports from Xinjiang have significantly reduced, with a year-on-year decline of 3.8% in national raw coal production in July. The National Energy Administration has initiated production inspections in key provinces, leading to self-reduction in some overproducing mines. A comprehensive reduction in overproducing mines is expected by late August, further tightening supply. As a result, port inventories have significantly decreased compared to the same period last year, and power plant inventories have also declined. Demand has been recovering since June, with total electricity generation increasing by 3.1% year-on-year in July [1][7][8]. - Coal prices have rebounded from 615 CNY/ton to 700 CNY/ton since early July, with expectations of continued upward momentum, potentially reaching levels above 800 CNY/ton and possibly breaking through 1000 CNY/ton if production cuts are effective. The report suggests focusing on companies with high spot price elasticity, particularly those in Shanxi province, which has minimized the impact of the current production limits [1][7][8]. - Strong support from essential demand indicates that coking coal prices still have room for upward movement. Despite some fluctuations in coking coal prices, supply-side reductions are anticipated, and demand may see a temporary decline due to limited production expectations in Shandong and Hebei. However, strong supply contraction is also expected, suggesting potential for price increases [2][9][10]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report highlights a significant reduction in coal supply, with national raw coal production experiencing its first year-on-year decline in 2025, down 3.8% in July. The National Energy Administration's inspections are expected to lead to further production cuts, tightening supply conditions [1][7][35]. - Demand for coal has shown signs of recovery, with total electricity generation increasing by 3.1% year-on-year in July, and coal consumption in the chemical industry also rising by 13.6% year-on-year [1][9][35]. Price Trends - Coal prices have rebounded significantly, with expectations of continued increases due to improved supply-demand dynamics. The report anticipates that coal prices could reach levels above 800 CNY/ton and potentially exceed 1000 CNY/ton if production cuts are effectively implemented [1][7][8]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with high spot price elasticity, such as Lu'an Huanneng, and those with stable performance and growth potential, including Jin Control Coal Industry and Huayang Co. Additionally, it suggests monitoring industry leaders like China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy for their robust performance [2][3][10].

| 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601699 | 潞安环能 | -4.45 | 2.24 | -19869.11 | | 000983 | 山西焦煤 | -1.86 | 1.55 | -5502.19 | | 601001 | 晋控煤业 | -2.21 | 1.24 | -4228.84 | | 600348 | 华阳股份 | -0.93 | 0.95 | -3979.03 | | 600188 | 兖矿能源 | -1.19 | 0.63 | -3587.41 | | 600397 | 安源煤业 | -2.00 | 3.57 | -2402.94 | | 000723 | 美锦能源 | -0.65 | 1.05 | -2303.97 | | 600121 | 郑州煤电 | -1.66 | 2.75 | -2284.56 | | 600971 | 恒源煤电 | -1.26 | 1.15 | -1888.73 | | 600157 | 永泰能源 | 0.00 | 1.81 | -182 ...

Market Overview - The coal mining sector experienced a decline of 0.6% on August 13, with Lu'an Huanneng leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3683.46, up 0.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11551.36, up 1.76% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Notable stock performances in the coal mining sector included: - Electric Power Investment Energy (002128) closed at 20.65, up 0.44% with a trading volume of 60,000 shares and a turnover of 123 million yuan [1] - Yongtai Energy (600157) remained unchanged at 1.45 with a trading volume of 3.94 million shares and a turnover of 572 million yuan [1] - Lu'an Huanneng (669109) saw a significant drop of 4.45%, closing at 13.95 with a trading volume of 671,500 shares and a turnover of 942 million yuan [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The coal mining sector experienced a net outflow of 588 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 543 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for individual stocks showed varied trends, with: - Pingmei Shenma Energy (601666) experiencing a net outflow of 3.61 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Electric Power Investment Energy (002128) had a net inflow of 1.74 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Shanghai Energy (600508) recorded a net inflow of 1.52 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

天眼查商业履历信息显示，晋能控股山西煤业股份有限公司，成立于2001年，位于大同市，是一家以从 事煤炭开采和洗选业为主的企业。企业注册资本167370万人民币，实缴资本167370万人民币。公司法定 代表人为李建光。 通过天眼查大数据分析，晋能控股山西煤业股份有限公司共对外投资了11家企业，参与招投标项目2420 次，专利信息1条，此外企业还拥有行政许可8个。 来源：金融界 金融界消息 截至2025年8月12日收盘，晋控煤业（601001）报收于14.5元，上涨2.84%，换手率1.76%， 成交量29.44万手，成交金额4.23亿元。 资金流向方面，今日主力资金净流出2576.63万元，占比成交额6.09%。其中，超大单净流出4819.91万 元、占成交额11.4%，大单净流入2243.27万元、占成交额5.3%，中单净流出流入3522.36万元、占成交 额8.33%，小单净流出945.73万元、占成交额2.24%。 晋控煤业最新一期业绩显示，截至2025一季报，公司营业总收入24.24亿元、同比减少33.73%，归属净 利润5.12亿元，同比减少34.35%，扣非净利润5.08亿元，同比减少35.26%， ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.50% on August 12, with 18 out of 28 sectors experiencing gains, led by the communication and electronics sectors, which increased by 2.24% and 1.88% respectively [1] - The coal industry ranked third in terms of daily gains, with an increase of 1.01% [2] - The defense and steel industries saw the largest declines, with decreases of 1.03% and 0.83% respectively [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The main funds in the two markets experienced a net outflow of 30.123 billion yuan, with 7 sectors seeing net inflows [1] - The electronics sector had the highest net inflow of funds, totaling 6.425 billion yuan, while the communication sector followed with a net inflow of 2.678 billion yuan [1] - The defense industry had the largest net outflow, amounting to 7.052 billion yuan, followed by the non-ferrous metals sector with a net outflow of 6.483 billion yuan [1] Coal Industry Performance - The coal industry saw a net inflow of 35.41 million yuan, with 30 out of 37 stocks in the sector rising [2] - The top three stocks with the highest net inflow were Shanxi Coking Coal (90.558 million yuan), Pingmei Shenma (44.366 million yuan), and Hengyuan Coal Power (20.638 million yuan) [2] - The stocks with the largest net outflows included Shaanxi Coal and Chemical (62.281 million yuan), Yongtai Energy (26.104 million yuan), and Jinkong Coal (24.408 million yuan) [2] Individual Stock Performance - Shanxi Coking Coal increased by 1.76% with a turnover rate of 2.14% and a net fund flow of 90.558 million yuan [3] - Pingmei Shenma rose by 2.31% with a turnover rate of 1.55% and a net fund flow of 44.366 million yuan [3] - Hengyuan Coal Power increased by 1.99% with a turnover rate of 1.90% and a net fund flow of 20.638 million yuan [3]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.50% on August 12, with 18 out of 28 sectors experiencing gains, led by the communication and electronics sectors, which increased by 2.24% and 1.88% respectively [2] - The coal industry ranked third in terms of daily gains, with an increase of 1.01% [3] - The defense and steel sectors saw the largest declines, with decreases of 1.03% and 0.83% respectively [2] Fund Flow Analysis - The main funds in the two markets experienced a net outflow of 30.123 billion yuan, with 7 sectors seeing net inflows [2] - The electronics sector had the highest net inflow of funds, totaling 6.425 billion yuan, while the communication sector followed with a net inflow of 2.678 billion yuan [2] - The defense industry had the largest net outflow, amounting to 7.052 billion yuan, followed by the non-ferrous metals sector with a net outflow of 6.483 billion yuan [2] Coal Industry Performance - The coal industry saw a net inflow of 35.4099 million yuan, with 30 out of 37 stocks in the sector rising [3] - Shanxi Coking Coal led the sector with a net inflow of 90.5582 million yuan, followed by Pingmei Shenma and Hengyuan Coal Power with inflows of 44.3657 million yuan and 20.6381 million yuan respectively [3][4] - The stocks with the largest net outflows included Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, Yongtai Energy, and Jinkong Coal Industry, with outflows of 62.2809 million yuan, 26.1038 million yuan, and 24.4081 million yuan respectively [5]

Market Performance - The coal sector has underperformed, with the CITIC Coal Index declining by 10.77% from the beginning of 2025 to June 30, 2025, lagging behind the CSI 300 Index by 10.80 percentage points, ranking last among 30 industries [1][14][15] - The decline is attributed to weak demand for thermal power, leading to a continuous drop in coal prices and a significant decrease in coal company profits, raising concerns about the sustainability of high dividends in the coal industry [1][15] Fund Holdings - As of the end of Q2 2025, the proportion of active funds holding coal stocks decreased to 0.36%, down 0.08 percentage points from Q1 2025. Index funds' holdings also fell to 0.71%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points [1][19] - The combined holding of both types of funds in the coal sector is now 0.52%, down 0.09 percentage points from Q1 2025 [1][19] Cost Perspective on Coal Price Valuation - The complete cost curve for 16 listed thermal coal companies indicates that the complete cost per ton of coal is approximately 390 CNY/ton, suggesting a port price of 640 CNY/ton. The port coal price fell to 618 CNY/ton in early June, indicating that over 20% of coal production capacity could face losses at this price level [2] - The current coal price is considered low in terms of valuation, as it is near the cost line, which could lead to production cuts if prices remain below cost [2] Historical Policy Interventions - Historical analysis shows that significant policy interventions were necessary for coal price reversals in 2008, 2015, and 2020. Each price bottom was accompanied by government actions to stimulate demand or control supply [3] - The report emphasizes that policy intervention is a necessary condition for coal price recovery, with expectations for potential government actions to support prices in the current context [3] Thermal Coal Price Outlook - The report suggests that the current thermal coal price of 618 CNY/ton may represent a bottom, with potential for recovery driven by improved demand in the second half of 2025 [4][6] - Two scenarios are outlined: an optimistic scenario where demand improves significantly, and a pessimistic scenario where demand remains weak, potentially leading to further price declines [6] Coking Coal Market Dynamics - The coking coal market has seen significant price drops due to supply-demand imbalances, with low-sulfur coking coal prices falling to around 1100 CNY/ton. The report indicates that this decline has already reflected market expectations [5][7] - The report highlights the importance of inventory rebuilding and the enforcement of production limits to support price recovery in the coking coal market [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on major coal enterprises such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy, as well as companies with significant earnings elasticity like Lu'an Huanneng and Jinneng Holding [8] - The report also notes the potential for price recovery in coking coal, with expectations for prices to rise to a range of 1500-2000 CNY/ton in the long term [7][8]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.34% on August 11, with 24 out of 28 sectors experiencing gains, led by the power equipment and communication sectors, which increased by 2.04% and 1.95% respectively [1] - The banking and oil & petrochemical sectors saw the largest declines, down by 1.01% and 0.41% respectively [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The net inflow of capital in the two markets was 10.02 billion yuan, with 16 sectors receiving net inflows [1] - The power equipment sector had the highest net inflow of 4.14 billion yuan, corresponding with its 2.04% increase [1] - The electronics sector also performed well, with a 1.76% increase and a net inflow of 3.33 billion yuan [1] Coal Industry Performance - The coal industry experienced a decline of 0.35%, with a net outflow of 43.74 million yuan [2] - Among the 37 stocks in the coal sector, 17 stocks rose while 14 fell [2] - The top net inflow stock was Anyuan Coal Industry, with an inflow of 43.69 million yuan, followed by Shaanxi Coal and Shanxi Coking Coal with inflows of 27.22 million yuan and 24.82 million yuan respectively [2] Individual Stock Analysis in Coal Sector - The following stocks had significant net outflows: Lu'an Mining (-50.37 million yuan), Huayang Co. (-36.61 million yuan), and Jinkong Coal Industry (-17.58 million yuan) [3] - The table provided details on various coal stocks, including their daily price changes, turnover rates, and main capital flows [3][4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the price of thermal coal is expected to recover to the second target of 700 yuan, with a steady layout in the coal sector [5][13] - The current price of thermal coal has rebounded to above the first target price of 670 yuan, which is the annual long-term contract price for central enterprises [5][13] - The report highlights that the fundamentals of thermal coal remain favorable, with supply constraints and high demand during the summer season [4][5] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal and coking coal prices have reached the right side of the turning point, with thermal coal being a policy-driven commodity [5][13] - The current price has surpassed the first target and is expected to reach the second target of around 700 yuan [5][13] - Future expectations include a potential recovery to a third target price of approximately 750 yuan and a fourth target price of around 860 yuan [5][13] Key Indicators Overview - The coal index increased by 3.65%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.41 percentage points [8][26] - The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 12.12, and the PB ratio is 1.24, ranking low among all A-share industries [28] Thermal Coal Industry Chain - As of August 8, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal is 682 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of 11.99% from the lowest price of 609 yuan earlier this year [4][21] - The operating rate of coal mines in the main production areas is at 80.1%, indicating a relatively low level for the year [4][21] - Port inventories have decreased by 25.6% from the highest level of 33.16 million tons earlier this year [4][21] Coking Coal Industry Chain - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1610 yuan/ton, rebounding from a low of 1230 yuan [4][22] - Coking coal futures have seen a significant rebound, increasing by 70.65% from 719 yuan in early June to the current price [4][22] - The report notes a strong expectation for coking coal prices, driven by supply tightening measures and demand from the steel industry [4][22]