Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Views - Social inventory has decreased for the first time, and summer demand is expected to remain strong. Domestic power plants are increasing daily coal consumption, leading to rising coal prices. Policies to control production and improve quality are being emphasized, supporting the fundamentals of both coking coal and thermal coal [6][29] - The report highlights that the overall level of social inventory is stable, with a significant increase in daily consumption expected due to hot weather and ongoing replenishment needs at power plants. The coking coal sector may see marginal improvements in performance due to potential declines in capacity utilization driven by environmental factors [6][29] Summary by Sections Coal Sector Performance - The coal sector saw a weekly increase of 0.71%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 0.82%. A total of 34 stocks in the sector increased in price, while 3 declined. Meijin Energy had the highest weekly increase at 10.8% [2] - Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 7.21 million tons from July 4 to July 10, 2025, a week-on-week increase of 3.7% and a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [2] Price Trends - As of July 11, 2025, the price of thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 662 CNY/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 0.3%. The price index for imported thermal coal rose by 1.21% to 750 CNY/ton [3] - The price of coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1310 CNY/ton, up 4.8% week-on-week, while the price of metallurgical coke remained stable at 1320 CNY/ton [4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The cumulative coal sales volume for key monitored enterprises was 131.73 million tons as of July 10, 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%. The demand from the power and chemical industries showed a year-on-year decrease of 3% and an increase of 16.6%, respectively [2][28] - The report indicates that the daily coal consumption in the power sector is expected to rise significantly, with the total social inventory of coal at 32.86 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.6% [2][28] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies and coking coal companies that may experience a turnaround. Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Meijin Energy among others [6][29]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is the early stage of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [11][12] - The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with short-term supply-demand balance and long-term gaps still present [11][12] - Coal prices have established a bottom and are trending towards a new platform, with high profitability, cash flow, return on equity (ROE) of 10-20%, and dividend yields over 5% for quality coal companies [11][12] - The coal sector is relatively undervalued, with overall valuation expected to improve, supported by high premiums in the primary mining rights market and a price-to-book (PB) ratio around 1 for most companies [11][12] - The coal sector is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance over the next 3-5 years, with quality coal companies exhibiting high barriers to entry, cash flow, dividends, and yield characteristics [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of July 12, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 624 CNY/ton, an increase of 8 CNY/ton week-on-week [28] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is 1310 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton week-on-week [30] Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 93.7%, down 0.3 percentage points week-on-week, while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is 85.52%, up 1.7 percentage points [11][46] - Daily coal consumption in coastal provinces increased by 6.10 thousand tons/day (+2.92%) week-on-week, while inland provinces saw a decrease of 9.50 thousand tons/day (-2.61%) [11][47] Coal Inventory Situation - As of July 10, coal inventory in coastal provinces decreased by 785 thousand tons (-2.18%) week-on-week, while inland provinces saw a slight decrease of 0.70 thousand tons (-0.01%) [11][47] Key Companies to Watch - Focus on stable and robust performers such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy [12] - Attention to companies with significant upside potential like Yanzhou Coal Mining, China Power Investment, and Guanghui Energy [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Increase" for the coal industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The coal price rebound is expected to exceed expectations due to continuous improvement in supply and demand margins [1]. - The report highlights strong support for coal prices driven by increased electricity demand during high-temperature weather, with significant historical peaks in power load recorded [7]. - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to create long-term uncertainties in domestic coal supply, while short-term supply is affected by heavy rainfall [6][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry consists of 37 listed companies with a total market value of 17,077.38 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 16,672.70 billion yuan [2]. 2. Price Tracking - The report notes that the price of thermal coal at the Qinhuangdao port was 637 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9 yuan/ton [8]. - The average daily production of thermal coal from 462 sample mines was 5.642 million tons, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous week [8]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that the demand for thermal coal is expected to rise due to increased electricity consumption during the summer heat, with a historical peak load of 2.52 million kilowatts recorded in the southern power grid [7]. - The supply side is constrained by heavy rainfall affecting production capacity, with the utilization rate of coal mines in the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions at 80.4% [6]. 4. Company Performance and Recommendations - Key companies recommended for investment include Yancoal Energy, Guohui Energy, and Shanxi Coal International, which are expected to benefit from the rebound in coal prices [6][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-elasticity stocks in the coal sector, particularly those related to thermal and coking coal [6][7].

Group 1 - The China Securities Index series includes the CSI 500, CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Small Comprehensive Index, and CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Comprehensive Index, categorized into 11 industries to reflect the overall performance of different industry securities [1][2] - The CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Small Comprehensive Energy Index has shown a 2.88% increase over the past month, a 7.73% increase over the past three months, and a 6.22% decrease year-to-date [1] - The top ten holdings in the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Small Comprehensive Energy Index include China Coal Energy (11.12%), Jereh Oilfield Services (6.61%), Meijin Energy (4.44%), and others [1] Group 2 - The market share of the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Small Comprehensive Energy Index is distributed as follows: Shanghai Stock Exchange 52.20%, Shenzhen Stock Exchange 24.29%, and Hong Kong Stock Exchange 23.51% [2] - The industry composition of the index shows that coal accounts for 37.32%, coke for 18.96%, fuel refining for 12.62%, oil and gas extraction for 12.35%, and oilfield services for 9.14% [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2]

Group 1 - The coal sector experienced a rebound in the afternoon, with Huadian Energy (600726) nearing the daily limit increase [1] - Zhengzhou Coal Electricity (600121), Xindaozhou A (000571), Yunmei Energy (600792), and Jinkong Coal Industry (601001) also saw gains [1]

Investment Rating - The coal mining industry is rated as "Recommended" [7] Core Views - The coal supply-demand relationship continues to optimize under high-temperature conditions, with port coal prices rising and inventory decreasing [4][72] - The production side shows a tightening trend, with a decrease in capacity utilization in Shanxi and a reduction in transportation volumes [4][72] - The demand side is supported by power plants replenishing inventory in anticipation of increased consumption due to high temperatures [4][72] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - Port coal prices increased to 623 RMB/ton, up 3 RMB/ton week-on-week [4][72] - Inventory at northern ports decreased by 797,000 tons week-on-week [30] - Daily consumption at coastal power plants rose by 80,000 tons week-on-week [24][72] 2. Coking Coal - Supply of coking coal has improved, with capacity utilization rising by 1.04 percentage points [5][41] - Coking coal prices at ports remained stable, with the average price at 1,230 RMB/ton [42] - Coking coal inventories at production enterprises decreased by 586,200 tons week-on-week [47] 3. Coke - Coking enterprises are experiencing a decline in production rates due to rising costs from coking coal prices [50] - The average profit per ton of coke is approximately -46 RMB, indicating a decrease in profitability [54] - Steel mills are replenishing raw material inventories, leading to a reduction in coke inventories [62] 4. Anthracite - Anthracite prices remained stable, with the price at 820 RMB/ton [68] - Demand from non-electric sectors remains weak, with procurement primarily focused on long-term contracts [68] 5. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, all rated as "Buy" [8] - The report highlights the strong cash flow and asset quality of leading coal companies, emphasizing their investment value [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key coal companies including China Qinfa, China Coal Energy, and AnYuan Coal Industry [3][6]. Core Insights - The global coal production is expected to reach a historical high of 924.2 million tons in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 0.9%. The Asia-Pacific region continues to expand production, with India and Indonesia increasing output by 7% and 8% respectively [7]. - Global coal demand is projected to grow to 165.06 exajoules (EJ) in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1%. However, demand in Europe is declining rapidly, with a decrease of 7% [7]. - The report highlights the stability of coal prices, with Newcastle port coal prices at $110.85 per ton, up 4.35 dollars per ton (+4.08%) from the previous week [34]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining - The report indicates that coal prices at European ARA ports have risen to $107.25 per ton, an increase of 3.90 dollars per ton (+3.77%) [34]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring coal production and demand trends, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, which is driving growth [7]. Investment Recommendations - Key recommended stocks include China Coal Energy, China Shenhua, and the turnaround story of China Qinfa. Other notable mentions are Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Yancoal Energy, which show potential for growth [3][6]. - The report also suggests keeping an eye on AnYuan Coal Industry, which is undergoing significant changes in its shareholder structure and asset swaps [3]. Market Trends - The report notes that global coal trade volume is expected to reach 35.99 EJ in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. Indonesia remains the largest coal exporter, accounting for 29.8% of total exports [7]. - The report provides a detailed analysis of coal price movements, indicating a stable trend in shipping coal prices [30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [10]. Core Insights - The recent strong rebound in coking coal futures is attributed to a combination of supply contraction and improved demand fundamentals, although medium to long-term price pressures may persist if demand does not see significant positive changes [2][7]. - The coal index (Yangtze) increased by 1.68% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.27 percentage points, ranking 25th out of 32 industries [19]. - Coking coal prices are supported by supply tightening due to safety inspections and environmental regulations, while demand remains stable due to steel production [6][20]. Summary by Sections Coking Coal Market - Coking coal futures saw a weekly increase of 6.34%, closing at 848 CNY/ton, significantly outperforming other commodities in the coal-steel-mining chain [7][14]. - Supply-side factors include reduced production from safety checks and environmental inspections, leading to a 0.53% week-on-week decrease in weekly refined coal output [7][20]. - Demand remains stable, with average daily pig iron production from 247 steel mills at 2.4229 million tons, showing a slight increase of 0.05% week-on-week [7][20]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests marginal allocation to long-term stable profit leaders such as China Coal Energy (A+H), China Shenhua (A+H), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [8]. - For growth-oriented investments, Electric Power Investment and New集 Energy are recommended, while coking coal companies like Shanxi Coking Coal, Huaibei Mining, and Pingdingshan Coal are highlighted for their potential [8]. Price Trends - As of June 27, the market price for Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal is 620 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of 11 CNY/ton week-on-week [19][42]. - The main coking coal price at Jingtang Port remains stable at 1230 CNY/ton, while the price for first-grade metallurgical coke is 1280 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week [19][20].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" [5][7]. Core Viewpoints - The current coal price adjustment has been ongoing for nearly four years since the historical peak in Q4 2021, and the market is well aware of the price decline. The industry is at a critical stage of price bottoming, and the bottom may not be far off. It is essential to grasp the intrinsic attributes of the industry and maintain confidence and determination [3]. - Domestic coal companies are increasingly facing losses, with over half (54.8%) of coal enterprises reporting losses as of March 2025. This situation may lead to a higher probability of both passive and active production cuts as prices continue to decline [3]. - The report emphasizes the potential for a rebound in coal prices due to the high costs of overseas coal mines, which may lead to reduced imports and a subsequent increase in domestic coal prices [3]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining - The European coal market is experiencing a price decline, with ARA port coal prices at $103.4 per ton, down $3.7 per ton (-3.4%) from the previous week. Newcastle port coal prices are at $106.5 per ton, down $0.1 per ton (-0.1%) [1][3]. - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions on natural gas prices, which have led to a simultaneous increase in coal and natural gas prices in Europe by 7-9% [6][3]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends key coal enterprises such as China Shenhua (H+A), China Coal Energy (H+A), and China Qinfa, which is expected to reverse its current difficulties. Other recommended companies include Xinjie Energy, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, which are expected to perform well [3][7].

Summary of Jin控煤业 Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jin控煤业 - **Industry**: Coal Industry Key Points and Arguments Sales Strategy Adjustments - The company has adopted a flexible pricing strategy for electricity coal, selling 4,500 kcal coal at approximately 548 RMB/ton, close to the long-term contract price, and construction coal at around 620 RMB/ton, reflecting adjustments to address weak market demand and declining auction prices [2][3][5] - As of the end of Q1, inventory levels dropped from over 2.3 million tons to tens of thousands of tons, but port inventory remains high at 4.4 to 4.6 million tons, indicating ongoing sales pressure [2][3][4] Long-term Contract Performance - Long-term contracts in the Tashan area are being fulfilled, but the Weilian area has a low fulfillment rate of about 40% as of the end of May, with power plants showing low transportation enthusiasm [2][7] Market Conditions - The overall coal market remains weak, with over 50% of companies operating at a loss, which supports coal costs. The approval of new projects is stagnant, and imports have decreased, limiting supply and providing some support for coal prices [2][10][11] Price Trends and Forecasts - The company does not expect significant price declines, with current prices around 600 RMB/ton seen as close to the bottom. Future price movements are expected to remain stable or slightly increase, but the overall market will continue to be weak [9][10] Cost Management - Cost compression opportunities are limited due to increased resource taxes and transportation costs, with overall costs remaining stable despite some fluctuations in manufacturing costs [18][20] Asset Acquisition and Future Plans - The company is in the process of acquiring mineral resources with geological reserves of over 1.8 billion tons, with the transaction expected to be completed by the end of the year. This acquisition is seen as a low-cost method to support the company's development [13][14][15] - Future asset securitization efforts are planned to enhance core competitiveness and asset quality, with no immediate new acquisition targets identified [16][17] Communication with Investors - The company maintains open communication with investors, welcoming inquiries and facilitating discussions through dedicated teams [24] Additional Important Information - The company is focused on optimizing production processes and enhancing sales channels to mitigate the pressures faced in the coal market [22] - The overall operational status of the group is acceptable, although some segments are experiencing losses due to older mines [21]