证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 2 月 1 日 钠电池有望进入放量应用阶段 我们认为，钠电兼具成本和性能优势。根据 SMM 数据，1 月 30 日，国产电池级碳酸锂（99.5%）日均价为 16.05 万元，同比 （2025 年 1 月 27 日 7.78 万元）增长 106.3%。由于碳酸锂在锂 电池成本中的比重较高，假设 1GWh 锂电池需要 600 吨碳酸锂计 算，碳酸锂价格上涨 10 万元，将带来锂电池成本增加 0.06 元， 因此碳酸锂价格的明显上涨将带来锂电池成本的提升。而钠元 素凭借资源禀赋优势，相比之下性价比优势突显。根据 SMM 数 据，1 月 30 日，电池级碳酸钠（99.5%）平均价为 4150 元/吨。 此外，经过多年的发展，钠电池技术和工艺逐步成熟，在储 能、商用车、乘用车等领域，以及换电、低温等场景中的性能 优势明显，钠电池有望实现规模应用，布局钠电池以及相关材 料的企业有望受益。 [Table_Title] 看好电力设备出海成长性，容量电价政策落地 [Table_Title2] 电力设备与新能源行业周观察 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要 ...

Core Insights - The performance of A-share listed companies for 2025 is showing a "polarization" trend, with significant differences in industry prosperity affecting earnings, where some companies achieve substantial profit growth while others, particularly in real estate and photovoltaic sectors, face losses [2][10] Group 1: Earnings Reports - As of January 30, over 70 companies have disclosed their 2025 annual reports, with more than 2200 companies providing earnings forecasts, indicating a clearer market outlook [2][7] - Among the companies that have reported, 51 achieved year-on-year revenue growth, highlighting the resilience of profit growth [3][6] - The top three companies in revenue growth are Shouyao Holdings, Lier Technology, and Xiamen Tungsten, with revenue increases of approximately 120%, 82.97%, and 47.84% respectively [4][5] Group 2: Profit Growth - A total of 47 companies reported year-on-year growth in net profit, with Wohua Pharmaceutical and Lier Chemical showing particularly strong performance, with net profit increases of 162.93% and 122.33% respectively [6] - Wohua Pharmaceutical achieved a revenue of 0.817 billion with a net profit of 0.096 billion, while Lier Chemical reported a revenue of 9.008 billion and a net profit of 0.479 billion [6] Group 3: Earnings Forecasts - Approximately 900 out of 2200 companies that disclosed earnings forecasts are expected to see profit increases, indicating strong growth momentum in the A-share market [7][10] - Notably, over 60 companies anticipate net profit growth exceeding 500%, with 20 companies expecting over 1000% growth, showcasing robust development potential [7][10] - Ningbo Fubang stands out with an expected net profit increase of 3099.59% to 4379.43%, driven by rising silver prices and asset optimization [8][9] Group 4: Loss Predictions - A significant number of companies, particularly in the real estate and photovoltaic sectors, are expected to report losses, with major firms like China Fortune Land Development and Greenland Holdings forecasting losses of 16 billion to 24 billion and 16 billion to 19 billion respectively [10] - The photovoltaic sector is also heavily impacted, with companies like Tongwei and TCL Zhonghuan predicting losses of 9 billion to 10 billion and 8.2 billion to 9.6 billion respectively [10]

消息面上，隆基绿能、晶澳科技等龙头企业密集推出股权激励计划，目标直指2026年扭亏为盈，释放行业复苏积极信号。同时，国内 光伏企业加速全球化布局，在东南亚构建"规避壁垒+就近供应"的产能体系，在中东通过"项目+制造"模式深度绑定本地能源转型，形 成全产业链出海新格局。 此外，得益于"反内卷"工作持续推进，目前，光伏行业正迎来拐点。中国光伏行业协会公布的最新数据显示，截至2025年11月，多晶 硅、硅片、电池片、组件均价分别较2025年初上涨38.9%、2.2%、0.4%、2.3%。 浙商证券表示，坚定看好行业拐点，需求复苏带动盈利修复。认为光伏行业拐点信号已现，一是2025年三季度多晶硅价格环比上涨 47%，带动部分企业减亏；二是龙头企业股权激励释放信心，目标2026年扭亏为盈；三是基金对光伏设备配置比例见底，回到2020年 行情启动前水平。预计2025年全球光伏新增装机570-630GW，同比增长8-19%，其中国内270-300GW；2026年硅料收储推动供给收 缩，需求复苏带动行业走出下行周期。 值得关注的是，中证光伏产业指数自基日(2012年12月31日)至2026年1月13日期间涨幅为206.55% ...

据交易所数据显示，截至1月30日午间收盘，主力资金流出前20的股票分别为： 蓝色光标（-16.38亿元）、 北方稀土（-13.21亿元）、 紫金矿业（-12.56亿 元）、铜陵有色（-12.32亿元）、 洛阳钼业（-11.28亿元）、 浙文互联（-10.48亿元）、 江波龙（-9.78亿元）、 工业富联（-9.75亿元）、 包钢股份（-9.32 亿元）、 天齐锂业（-8.97亿元）、 赣锋锂业（-8.84亿元）、 华友钴业（-8.41亿元）、 特变电工（-8.31亿元）、 隆基绿能（-7.99亿元）、 江西铜业（-7.31 亿元）、 洲际油气（-6.35亿元）、 中兴通讯（-6.28亿元）、五 粮 液（-6.16亿元）、 中国铝业（-6.10亿元）、 利欧股份（-6.09亿元）。 | 股票名称 | 涨跌幅 (%) | 主力资金流向 | 所属行 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 蓝色光标 | -3.59 | -16.38亿元 | 文化传妙 | | 北方稀土 | -8.72 | -13.21亿元 | 小金属 | | 紫金矿业 | -8.33 | -12.56亿元 | 有色金属 | | 铜 ...

消息面上，通威股份、隆基绿能、爱旭股份相继发布2025年度业绩预告，均为亏损状态。然而在谈到预 亏的原因时，多家公司均提到了白银价格上涨对业绩的影响。隆基绿能在公告中指出，四季度银浆、硅 料成本大幅上涨，显著推升了硅片、电池及组件产品成本。通威股份在谈到亏损原因时也提到"白银等 部分核心原材料价格持续上涨"。 据悉，银浆是太阳能电池板的关键材料，用于制作导电触点以传输电池产生的电力。数据显示，电池片 中使用的微量白银目前占组件总成本的29%，而2023年仅为3.4%，去年为14%。光伏行业积极通过技术 调整来化解白银价格上涨的压力，加速用铜等更廉价材料替代白银的计划来做出应对。 智通财经APP获悉，光伏股再度走低，截至发稿，彩虹新能源(00438)跌6.45%，报2.03港元；福莱特玻 璃(06865)跌5.76%，报10.97港元；信义光能(00968)跌4.29%，报3.35港元；新特能源(01799)跌3.54%， 报7.64港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing a decline, with several key companies reporting significant losses for 2025, primarily attributed to rising silver prices impacting production costs [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Rainbow New Energy (00438) shares fell by 6.45%, trading at HKD 2.03 [1] - Flat Glass (601865) shares decreased by 5.76%, trading at HKD 10.97 [1] - Xinyi Solar (00968) shares dropped by 4.29%, trading at HKD 3.35 [1] - New Special Energy (01799) shares declined by 3.54%, trading at HKD 7.64 [1] Group 2: Financial Forecasts - Tongwei Co. (600438), Longi Green Energy (601012), and Aiko Solar (600732) all issued profit warnings for 2025, indicating expected losses [1] - Longi Green Energy cited significant increases in silver paste and silicon material costs as a major factor for the anticipated losses [1] - Tongwei Co. also mentioned that the continuous rise in prices of core raw materials, including silver, is contributing to their financial difficulties [1] Group 3: Industry Insights - Silver paste is a critical material in solar panels, used for creating conductive contacts to transmit electricity generated by the cells [1] - The current usage of silver in battery cells accounts for 29% of the total cost of components, a significant increase from 3.4% in 2023 and 14% last year [1] - The photovoltaic industry is actively seeking to mitigate the impact of rising silver prices by accelerating plans to replace silver with cheaper materials like copper [1]

Core Viewpoint - Longi Green Energy (601012) reported that as of January 20, 2026, the number of shareholders reached 854,838 [1] Group 1 - The company is actively engaging with investors through an interactive platform [1] - The increase in shareholder numbers indicates growing interest and confidence in the company [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Longi Green Energy is actively advancing the commercialization of alternative silver paste technology, with pilot tests completed and large-scale production capacity construction underway [1] Group 2 - The company has successfully completed the pilot testing phase for the alternative silver paste technology [1] - Large-scale production capacity construction has already begun for the alternative silver paste technology [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing efforts by regulatory authorities to address the "involution" issues within the photovoltaic (PV) industry, emphasizing the need for a return to rational competition and sustainable development [2][5]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The Chinese photovoltaic industry has been a global leader in scale, industrial chain layout, technology, and application, with manufacturing output increasing from 750 billion yuan in 2021 to 1.75 trillion yuan in 2023, and expected to remain above 1 trillion yuan in 2024 [2]. - By 2025, the installed capacity of wind and solar power in China is projected to exceed 1.8 billion kilowatts, with solar power capacity reaching 1.2 billion kilowatts, marking a year-on-year growth of 35.4% [2]. Group 2: Challenges Faced - The rapid expansion of the domestic PV industry has led to significant supply-demand mismatches and chaotic low-price competition, resulting in severe "involution" issues [3]. - From 2022 to 2025, the price of domestic PV modules has dropped from 2 yuan per watt to around 0.6 yuan, while silicon material prices have plummeted from a peak of 300,000 yuan per ton to about 55,000 yuan, causing many companies to sell products below mainstream cash cost lines [4]. - As a result, the industry has faced widespread losses since the fourth quarter of 2023, with major companies like Longi Green Energy, JinkoSolar, and Tongwei expected to report losses ranging from 60 billion to 100 billion yuan in 2025 [4]. Group 3: Regulatory Actions - In response to the chaotic situation, regulatory authorities have initiated multiple measures to promote "anti-involution" governance in the PV industry, including capacity regulation, curbing low-price competition, and supporting industry self-discipline [5]. - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of VAT export rebates for PV products starting April 1, which is seen as a move to end the "rebate subsidy era" and promote rational pricing in foreign markets, ultimately enhancing the industry's international competitiveness [5]. Group 4: Industry Recovery Signs - Benefiting from the ongoing "anti-involution" efforts, the PV industry is reportedly approaching a cyclical bottom, with profitability gradually improving in the main industry chain [6]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, 31 companies reported a total loss of 31.04 billion yuan, with the third quarter loss narrowing by approximately 46.7% to 6.42 billion yuan, and the gross margin for the main industry chain reaching 5.61%, up from 3.64% in the previous quarters [6]. - As of November 2025, the average prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules have increased by 38.9%, 2.2%, 0.4%, and 2.3% respectively compared to the beginning of the year [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the company is actively advancing the commercialization of silver paste replacement technology in response to the recent surge in silver prices [2][3] - The company has completed pilot testing for the replacement silver paste technology and has begun scaling up production capacity [2]