内蒙古 库布齐。图片来源：视觉中国 【编者按】 2026年冬季达沃斯论坛，马斯克提出，瓦特将取代货币成为未来财富的衡量单位，而中国凭借太阳能等可再生能源的海量产出，已占据先机。大洋另一侧， 现实却是，中国光伏业仍在一场产能过剩导致的全行业亏损中苦苦挣扎。 这个产业长期行走于光影之间——前方是能源与算力革命预示的光明前景，身后是过剩与内卷投下的漫长阴影。行业龙头之一——隆基绿能就是一个缩影。《财富》通 过连续数月对隆基、它的伙伴与对手、行业人士的深度采访，试图以它的故事为切片，讲述中国光伏业在这场能源终局降临之际的集体自救。 正午，内蒙古库布齐沙漠，太阳把沙子晒得发烫。 一大片深蓝色、离地数米高的光伏板矗立在大漠间，列队整齐，延绵数十公里不绝。从高处远眺，荒漠的粗糙质地被这些人造物近乎完美的镜面反射所取 代。视线下探，在光伏板投下的大片阴影中，青草在金属支架间摇摆。 这里是位于黄河"几"字弯南岸的中国第七大沙漠，它曾因风沙肆虐被称为 " 死亡之海 " 。 很难想象植物能在这里扎下根系，更违背直觉的是，这场生态 修复的发起者是一排排兀自扎于沙砾之间、与生命毫无关联的工业品。 十多年前，中国的光伏公司开始进入大漠深 ...

Core Viewpoint - Major photovoltaic companies such as JinkoSolar, Tongwei Co., and LONGi Green Energy have recently announced significant projected losses for 2025, primarily due to rising silver prices impacting their performance [3][4]. Group 1: Financial Projections - JinkoSolar expects a net loss of 5.9 billion to 6.9 billion yuan for 2025, while Tongwei Co. anticipates losses between 9 billion to 10 billion yuan, and LONGi Green Energy projects a net loss of 6 billion to 6.5 billion yuan [3]. - The rising costs of silver paste, a key material in photovoltaic cell production, have been cited as a major factor contributing to these losses [4]. Group 2: Cost Structure and Material Impact - Silver paste, which is crucial for manufacturing photovoltaic cells, accounts for approximately 62% of the non-silicon costs in TOPCon solar cells, with a projected cost of 0.138 yuan/W by the end of 2025 [4]. - The current spot price of silver has surged to over $100 per ounce, having more than tripled in the past year, adding to the cost pressures faced by these companies [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Pricing Strategies - Companies are attempting to pass on costs by slightly increasing the prices of photovoltaic modules; however, this is constrained by a supply-demand imbalance in the industry [5]. - The domestic market demand is weakening, and overseas procurement is also declining, which may further limit the ability of companies to raise prices [5]. Group 4: Technological Developments - Companies are exploring alternatives to reduce silver usage, such as the development of "silver-free" technologies and the use of copper plating [5][6]. - While significant R&D efforts are underway, the maturity and effectiveness of these technologies remain uncertain, and their economic viability is under scrutiny [6]. Group 5: Future Outlook on Silver Prices - In the short term, the impact of alternative technologies on silver prices is expected to be limited due to their nascent stage of development [7]. - Long-term trends may see downward pressure on silver prices as these technologies mature and photovoltaic installation volumes potentially decline [7]. - The strategic resource status of silver, influenced by policy changes, may continue to support its price [8].

Core Viewpoint - Major photovoltaic companies such as JinkoSolar, Tongwei Co., and LONGi Green Energy have issued profit warnings for 2025, citing significant losses primarily due to rising silver prices impacting their production costs [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Forecasts - JinkoSolar expects a net loss of 5.9 billion to 6.9 billion yuan for 2025 [1] - Tongwei Co. anticipates losses between 9 billion to 10 billion yuan [1] - LONGi Green Energy projects a net loss of 6 billion to 6.5 billion yuan attributable to increased costs of silver paste and silicon materials [1] Group 2: Cost Drivers - The surge in silver prices has been a critical factor, with current spot silver prices exceeding $100 per ounce, having more than tripled over the past year [2] - The cost of silver paste, a key material in photovoltaic cell production, is projected to reach 0.138 yuan/W by the end of 2025, accounting for approximately 62% of the non-silicon costs in TOPCon solar cells [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a "strong supply, weak demand" scenario, limiting the ability of companies to pass on increased costs to consumers [3] - Domestic market demand is declining, and overseas procurement is also slowing down, which may further weaken future demand [3] Group 4: Technological Developments - Companies are exploring alternatives to reduce silver usage, such as the development of "silver-free" technologies and the use of copper plating [3][4] - LONGi Green Energy has achieved mass production of its high-efficiency BC second-generation products, which utilize less silver [4] Group 5: Future Outlook - The maturity of alternative technologies and potential declines in photovoltaic installation volumes may exert downward pressure on silver prices in the long term [4] - Silver's strategic resource status is expected to strengthen, potentially driving prices higher due to policy influences [4]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic (PV) industry is experiencing significant momentum, particularly in the equipment sector, with clear RSR signals indicating strong market activity [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - Jiejia Weichuang is highlighted as a key player in the industry [3]. - Maiwei Co., Ltd. is noted for leading the market with unusual trading volumes and signals of acceleration into the second phase of growth [4]. - Aotwei and Jingcheng Machinery are also mentioned as companies that have entered the second phase of acceleration [5][7]. - High Measurement Co. and Dier Laser are part of the group showing strong performance, with most companies just entering the second phase [8][10]. - The characteristics of these stocks include significant price increases of over 50% and a strong breakout above previous highs, indicating a bullish trend [12]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry is classified as a typical cyclical industry, with performance fluctuations similar to non-ferrous metals and chemicals, driven by expectations of industry recovery and supply-side reforms [16]. - Equipment manufacturers often outperform the core industry stocks, as seen in the non-ferrous sector where mining equipment stocks have shown greater gains [16]. - Component stocks are lagging behind equipment stocks, with JinkoSolar showing potential due to its advanced technology and market position, surpassing previous leaders [18]. Group 3: Historical Context - Historical bull stocks serve as a guide for current market behavior, with current bull stocks following similar patterns of clear upward trends and compact adjustment structures [19].

为确保期货市场与实体产业高效对接，广期所在多晶硅期货合约设计中采用注册品牌交割制度，并对交 割品质量标准设定进行了详尽调研，以满足上下游企业产销需求。 广发期货分析师纪元菲表示，多晶硅生产企业产能较为集中，行业内的贸易对品牌声誉、质量标准较为 重视，具备品牌管理基础。同时，品牌交割制度有利于保障产业客户的需求，进一步确保入库商品质量 的可追溯性与一致性。 ● 本报记者王超 作为服务实体经济的重要金融工具，多晶硅期货上市已满一周年，在稳定光伏产业链、优化行业生态方 面发挥了不容忽视的作用。作为光伏产业链的核心原材料，当前多晶硅仍面临供需阶段性错配、价格大 幅波动的风险。期货工具的引入，为产业企业提供了重要的价格"晴雨表"和风险"防护垫"，为整个光伏 行业平滑周期波动、管理风险、转型升级持续注入力量。 服务国家战略契合产业迫切需求 在"硅料-硅片-电池片-组件"组成的光伏产业链中，多晶硅位于上游，是决定光伏产品性能与成本的核心 环节。中国作为多晶硅全球最大的生产国和消费国，已建立起全球领先的产业优势。然而，近年来其价 格受产业周期、技术迭代等多重因素影响波动显著，给上下游企业的稳定经营带来挑战。数据显示， 202 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growing interest and investment in space photovoltaic technology among various companies, despite some facing significant losses in the traditional photovoltaic sector [2][3] - Several companies in the photovoltaic industry are actively pursuing space photovoltaic opportunities through investments, acquisitions, and self-research, with some already having products in mass production [2] - The market has seen a surge in stock prices for companies involved in space photovoltaic, such as Optec, JinkoSolar, and others, indicating a renewed optimism in this segment [2] Group 2 - Mingyang Smart Energy is making a strategic move by acquiring control of Zhongshan Dehua Chip Technology Co., which specializes in high-end compound semiconductor technology, to extend its reach into the space photovoltaic sector [4] - Gallium arsenide solar cells are identified as a mature solution for space photovoltaic applications, with Qianzhao Optoelectronics being the leading supplier of gallium arsenide solar cell epitaxial wafers in China [4] - The P-type ultra-thin heterojunction (HJT) battery technology is viewed as a key cost-reduction strategy for satellite solar wings, with companies like Dongfang Risen capable of mass delivery of HJT products [5] Group 3 - Some companies have issued risk warnings regarding their involvement in space photovoltaic, indicating that their products or technologies are not yet applicable in this field [6] - JunDa Co. has highlighted several risks associated with its investment in space photovoltaic, including technical, business, and market uncertainties, emphasizing that its current focus remains on ground photovoltaic applications [6] - Other companies, such as Solar Energy and Yamaton, have stated that their business does not currently involve space photovoltaic technology, focusing instead on their respective core areas [7]

Market Overview - The A-share market continued its upward trend, with significant gains in sectors such as non-ferrous metals and renewable energy, leading to all four major indices closing in the green [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4136.16 points, up 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.79% to 14439.66 points [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 30.853 trillion yuan, an increase of over 390 billion yuan compared to the previous day [2] Space Industry Developments - The commercial aerospace sector saw a surge in interest, particularly in space photovoltaic technology, which became a focal point for active capital [2][3] - Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO process on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board is progressing rapidly, with its application status changing to "under inquiry" as of January 22 [3] - SpaceX announced plans to launch its second-generation Starlink system by 2027, while Blue Origin is set to deploy a satellite communication network consisting of 5408 satellites by the fourth quarter of 2027 [3] Photovoltaic Sector Performance - The photovoltaic equipment index rose by 8.69%, with 64 stocks in the sector, of which only two declined, and several stocks, including Maiwei Co. and Jiejia Weichuang, hitting the 20% limit up [4] - Longi Green Energy, a leading company in the photovoltaic sector, also recorded a limit-up performance [4] - Space photovoltaic energy utilizes solar technology in outer space environments, providing a stable and lightweight energy solution compared to traditional fossil fuels and nuclear energy [4] Technological Advancements - SpaceX has confirmed the use of P-type HJT battery technology for large-scale production of space solar cells, which is seen as a short-term optimal alternative due to its cost-effectiveness and material flexibility [5] - The demand for GW-level space photovoltaic solutions is expected to grow significantly, with the existing arsenide gallium batteries unable to meet deployment needs [5] Investment Outlook - Market sentiment is optimistic, with institutions suggesting a focus on company performance as the annual earnings forecast period approaches [5] - The strategy team at CITIC Securities indicates that the market is in an upward trend, with active capital likely to seek thematic investment opportunities, particularly in commercial aerospace [5] - Investors are advised to concentrate on high-growth sectors, such as semiconductor equipment driven by storage expansion [5]

Core Viewpoint - The market shows signs of recovery with a significant increase in trading volume and a majority of stocks rising, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards riskier assets and sectors with high growth potential [1][4][14]. Market Performance - On January 23, the market's trading volume exceeded 3.12 trillion yuan, with nearly 4,000 stocks closing higher, reflecting a strong market sentiment [1][4][14]. - Major indices experienced moderate gains, with the North Stock 50 index surging nearly 4%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.33% [1][4][14]. Sector Performance - Leading sectors included aerospace, marketing services, and power equipment, while consumer sectors remained weak [1][4][7]. - The power equipment sector saw a notable increase, with 28 stocks hitting the daily limit up, indicating strong investor interest [6][10]. - The non-consumer sectors, particularly those related to economic recovery and technology, are attracting more capital, while traditional sectors like banking and consumer goods are underperforming [13][18]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with strong fundamentals and growth potential, such as power equipment, non-ferrous metals, and defense industries, while avoiding high-valuation stocks that have recently surged [3][17][18]. - New investors should adopt a cautious approach, emphasizing gradual accumulation of stocks with solid earnings prospects and reasonable valuations [3][17][18].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that SpaceX and Tesla plan to build a total of 200GW of photovoltaic capacity in the U.S. over the next three years, primarily for ground data centers and space AI satellites [6] - The advantages of space computing centers are emphasized, including better convenience and real-time service compared to ground data processing, as well as significant cost reductions in communication infrastructure [6] - The report predicts that global photovoltaic demand will continue to grow, with an expected 580GW of new installations in 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 6%. The total global photovoltaic demand is projected to reach 645GW, a year-on-year growth of 18.6% [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the emergence of new demand in the photovoltaic industry driven by space photovoltaic technology [1] Key Developments - Space photovoltaic technology is being developed in China, with three generations of solar battery technology tailored for different spacecraft, achieving international advanced performance levels [6] - Several domestic companies are accelerating their investments in space photovoltaic technology, including partnerships for the production of combined products [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that have established early advantages in space photovoltaic layouts, such as Junda Co., Oriental Sunrise, JinkoSolar, Longi Green Energy, Foster, and others [6]

总体来看，随着光伏行业进入"技术引领、优存劣汰"的新阶段，隆基绿能有望凭借技术壁垒、全球化渠 道与合规经营能力，实现估值与业绩的双重提升。 2026 年 1 月 23 日，光伏龙头隆基绿能（601012）上演强势行情，盘中快速拉升后牢牢封死涨停，最终 以 10.01% 的涨幅收盘。股价从 17.59元攀升至 19.35 元，单股上涨 1.76 元。当日交易热度空前，成交 总额高达 93.94 亿元，换手率 6.58%，成交量 498.6 万手，同时登顶沪市 A 股主力资金增仓榜，主力净 流入超 26 亿元，成为当日 A 股市场备受关注的光伏概念股之一。 今日涨停行情的爆发，是政策利好、新赛道太空光伏需求爆发的双重共振的结果。一方面，工业和信息 化部电子信息司司长杨旭东表示，2026年光伏行业治理进入攻坚期，将进一步加强产能调控，强化光伏 制造项目管理，以市场化、法治化的手段推动落后产能有序退出，加快实现产能的动态平衡。隆基绿能 作为全球光伏硅片与组件的双龙头，更是今日太空光伏概念的龙头股票，在行业洗牌中更能展现出强大 的抗风险能力，在政策红利下有望进一步提升市占率。 另一方面，今日商业航天产业带动太空光伏成为 ...