Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of core assets in Hong Kong's electric power equipment sector, highlighting the strong approval of coal power installations and the ongoing demand for pumped storage [5][6] - The report indicates that the approval of coal power installations is expected to remain high, with approximately 31 GW approved in the first half of 2025, maintaining levels similar to 2024 [17] - The report notes that the growth in electricity load is expected to outpace overall electricity consumption growth, indicating a long-term trend that will rely heavily on conventional power sources [18] - The wind power sector is experiencing a slowdown in the rapid scaling of turbine sizes, which may lead to improved profitability for wind turbine manufacturers [22][34] Summary by Sections Electric Power Equipment - The report highlights the strong approval of coal power installations, with 90 GW, 83 GW, and 78 GW approved in 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, and an expectation to exceed 80 GW in 2025 [17] - The demand for pumped storage is projected to remain high, with significant approvals in recent years, indicating a robust market for this segment [21] - Key companies to focus on include Harbin Electric, Dongfang Electric (H), and Goldwind Technology (H), along with A-share counterparts [6][34] Electricity Production - In June 2025, the industrial electricity production reached 796.3 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, with a daily average of 26.54 billion kWh [35] - The report notes a narrowing decline in hydropower output and an acceleration in solar power generation, while wind and thermal power growth has slowed [35][38] Coal Industry - In June 2025, coal imports decreased significantly, with a year-on-year decline of 25.9%, attributed to low domestic coal prices [43] - The report indicates that domestic coal production is at a turning point, with a year-on-year increase of 3.0% in June, but with pressures from low prices affecting production levels in key regions [57] - Recommendations include focusing on leading coal companies with high long-term contracts, such as China Coal Energy and China Shenhua Energy [43]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the coal prices are expected to continue rising due to increased demand driven by high temperatures and a recovering supply from major production areas [2][59] - The report highlights that the focus should be on companies with stable performance and high return on equity (ROE), as well as those with attractive valuations and dividend yields [60] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Data Tracking - Thermal coal prices have rebounded significantly, with Qinhuangdao thermal coal closing at 644 RMB/ton on July 18, an increase of 10 RMB/ton week-on-week [3][12] - Coking coal prices have also risen, with Shanxi coking coal reaching 1420 RMB/ton, up 110 RMB/ton week-on-week [4][32] 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that the supply of thermal coal is tightening, with June imports down 26% year-on-year [2][59] - Daily consumption of thermal coal has increased, with coastal provinces averaging 222.3 million tons per day, a week-on-week increase of 3.5 million tons [17][21] 3. Price Trends - The long-term contract price for thermal coal (Q5500) is reported at 666 RMB/ton, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.9% [3][12] - The coking coal price index is at 1111 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 42 RMB/ton, while the cost index is at 1286 RMB/ton, indicating a gap of 175 RMB/ton [37][38] 4. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends a combination of companies including Shanxi Coal International, Huabei Mining, Pingmei Shenma, Shanxi Coking Coal, Yanzhou Coal, Shaanxi Coal, China Shenhua, and others for investment [2][60] 5. Market Performance - The coal sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with specific stocks showing varied performance [54][60]

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund, China Enterprise Dividend Mixed A (019015), reported a profit of 1.6032 million yuan for Q2 2025, with a net value growth rate of 4.59% during the period, and a total fund size of 33.8038 million yuan as of the end of Q2 2025 [3][16]. Fund Performance - As of July 18, the unit net value was 1.128 yuan, with a one-year cumulative net value growth rate of 9.58%, ranking 446 out of 584 comparable funds [3][4]. - The fund's performance over the last three months showed a growth rate of 8.11%, ranking 436 out of 615, and over the last six months, it had a growth rate of 9.65%, ranking 338 out of 615 [4]. Investment Strategy - The fund manager indicated that with the implementation of U.S. President Trump's tariff policies, global trade tensions are rising. They believe that state-owned enterprise stocks with self-controllable and domestic demand attributes will have better defensive characteristics [3]. - The report suggests that the concept of "dividend" investment, particularly high-dividend stocks, is expected to expand to broadly defined dividend stocks with potential high dividend capabilities. These companies typically have high operational barriers, stable ROE, and abundant operating cash flow, indicating a potential for sustained dividends while still being undervalued historically [3]. Fund Holdings - As of June 27, the fund's top ten holdings included Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Shandong Publishing Group, Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Co., New Media Group, Bohai Ferry, Phoenix Media, Nanjing Steel Group, Nanjing High Accurate Drive Equipment Manufacturing Group, China Shenhua Energy Company, and China Construction Bank [19]. Risk Metrics - The fund has a Sharpe ratio of 0.6765 since inception, indicating a reasonable risk-adjusted return [9]. - The maximum drawdown since inception is 14.12%, with the largest quarterly drawdown occurring in Q3 2024 at 11.88% [12]. Fund Positioning - The average stock position since inception has been 91.66%, compared to the peer average of 83.17%. The fund reached a peak stock position of 93.42% at the end of Q1 2024 and a low of 89.12% at the end of 2024 [15].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the negative impact from the mid-year report has been fully absorbed, and the fundamentals of the coal industry remain upward [1] - The coal sector has underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 0.74% compared to a 1.09% increase in the index, resulting in a relative underperformance of 1.83 percentage points [2] - Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 7.31 million tons, which is a week-on-week increase of 2.8% and a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [2] - The report highlights a decrease in coal inventory by 4% week-on-week, while year-on-year inventory has increased by 19.8% [2] Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - The coal sector saw 6 stocks rise and 31 stocks fall during the week, with ST Dazhou showing the highest increase of 4.89% [2] - The average daily sales of thermal coal increased by 3.2% week-on-week, while coking coal sales rose by 1.9% [2] Price Trends - As of July 18, 2025, the price index for thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 663 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.15% [3] - The price of coking coal at Jing Tang Port was 1420 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 8.4% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that social inventory continues to decline, and current demand remains promising, with domestic power plants showing a significant increase in daily coal consumption [6] - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies and coking coal companies that are experiencing turnaround potential, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stable performance and growth potential [3][12]. Core Insights - National electricity load has reached new highs, with peak season demand expected to drive coal prices upward. The report anticipates that by mid-August, prices may exceed 750 RMB/ton, with a price center around 700 RMB/ton for the second half of the year [2][7]. - Coal supply is decreasing significantly, with June 2025 coal imports down by 11.1% year-on-year, and domestic coal production showing mixed results. The overall capacity utilization rate in the coal mining sector has dropped to 69.3%, the lowest since Q1 2020 [2][21][38]. - The demand side shows a positive trend, with thermal power generation growth turning positive since late May, and electricity consumption reaching record levels due to rising temperatures [2][7][33]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: 1. Huayang Co., Ltd. for stable performance and year-on-year production growth 2. Jinko Coal Industry for high net cash growth potential 3. Industry leaders like Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua for stable earnings 4. Shanmei International for recovery in production 5. Xinji Energy for coal-electricity integrated growth 6. CGN Mining for benefiting from nuclear power growth [3][12]. Market Performance - As of July 18, 2025, the coal sector has seen a weekly decline of 0.7%, underperforming compared to the broader market indices [13][15]. - Yunnan Coal Energy has shown the highest weekly increase at 4.11%, while Dayou Energy has experienced the largest decline at 10.33% [18][19]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that coal prices are on an upward trend, with significant increases in both port and production prices. For instance, Qinhuangdao port's Q5500 coal price reached 634 RMB/ton, a weekly increase of 10 RMB/ton [8][10]. - The report highlights the structural tightness in coal supply, with power plants' coal inventories dropping below levels seen in 2023 and 2024 [2][7].

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Overweight" indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [3][29]. Core Views - The report anticipates a recovery in coal companies' performance in the second half of 2025, driven by a rebound in coal prices after a bottoming out in the second quarter [3]. - Domestic raw coal production increased by 5.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, while coal imports decreased by 11.1% [3][13]. - The average price of thermal coal and coking coal at ports fell significantly in the second quarter of 2025, with thermal coal prices dropping approximately 25.79% year-on-year [3][17]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Domestic raw coal production reached 2.405 billion tons in the first half of 2025, up from 2.266 billion tons in the same period of 2024, with notable increases in Shanxi (10.1%) and Xinjiang (12.4%) [8][9]. - Coal imports totaled 22.2 million tons in the first half of 2025, marking an 11.1% decline compared to the previous year, with negative growth observed since March 2025 [13][18]. - The average price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at ports was approximately 630 CNY/ton in Q2 2025, down from 850 CNY/ton in Q2 2024, reflecting a significant price drop [3][17]. Company Performance Forecast - Companies expected to exceed performance expectations include China Shenhua (EPS 1.24, YOY -16.62%), Electric Power Investment (EPS 1.36, YOY 3.49%), and Xinji Energy (EPS 0.38, YOY -15.78%) [3][20]. - Companies with performance in line with expectations include Shaanxi Coal (EPS 0.86, YOY -21.1%) and Yanzhou Coal (EPS 0.54, YOY -47.24%) [3][20]. - The only company expected to underperform is Shanxi Black Cat (EPS -0.25, YOY -14.61%) [3][20]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on stable, high-dividend stocks such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [3]. - It also suggests considering undervalued stocks with potential for growth, including Shanxi Coking Coal, Huabei Mining, Electric Power Investment, Yanzhou Coal, and Pingmei Shenma [3]. - Attention is drawn to Xinji Energy as a growth stock benefiting from coal-electricity integration [3].

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is experiencing significant profit declines across multiple companies due to a sharp drop in coal prices, with many firms reporting losses or substantial reductions in net profit for the first half of 2025 [1][2][3]. Company Performance - Zhengzhou Coal Electricity and Panjiang Coal & Electricity have shifted from profit to loss, with Shanghai Energy forecasting a net profit of 190 million to 230 million yuan, a decrease of 51.27% to 59.75% year-on-year [2]. - China Shenhua, the industry leader, expects a net profit of 23.6 billion to 25.6 billion yuan, down 39 billion to 59 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, representing a decline of 13.2% to 20.0% [2][3]. - Gansu Energy is projected to report a net loss of 180 million yuan, while Jizhong Energy anticipates a profit of 330 million to 400 million yuan, down 60.06% to 67.05% year-on-year [2][3]. - Lanhua Science and Technology expects a net profit of 40 million to 60 million yuan, a decrease of 89.12% to 92.75% [2][3]. - Yongtai Energy forecasts a profit of 120 million to 150 million yuan, down 87.39% to 89.91% year-on-year [2][3]. - Anyuan Coal Industry expects a net loss of 259 million to 310 million yuan, indicating an expanded loss compared to the previous year [2][3]. Industry Trends - The coal industry has been in a downward profit trend for nearly two years, with major companies like China Shenhua and Pingmei Shenma Coal & Electricity reporting consecutive quarterly profit declines [4]. - The decline in profits is attributed to falling coal prices, with the price of 5500 kcal coal at North Port dropping nearly 20% to 620 yuan per ton by June 30, 2025 [1][4]. - The coal market has experienced three significant price fluctuations since the establishment of the socialist market economy, with the current downturn being the most severe [5][7]. - In 2023, coal imports reached a record high of 474 million tons, up 61.8% year-on-year, contributing to the price decline [6][7]. - The overall revenue of the coal mining and washing industry fell by 19.2% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, with total profits down by 50.6% [7]. Price Dynamics - The price of coal has been on a downward trend since 2023, with analysts suggesting that prices may have entered a reasonable range and could be nearing the bottom [8]. - The price of Q5500 coal at Qinhuangdao Port hit a low of 617 yuan per ton on June 5, 2023, marking a 49.6% drop from the peak earlier that year [4][5].

Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 Index components showed strong performance in sectors such as banking, insurance, and liquor, while the consumer electronics sector underperformed [1][6]. Banking Sector - Everbright Bank had a market capitalization of 254.068 billion with a trading volume of 609 million, closing at 4.30, up by 0.03 (+0.70%) [3]. Insurance Sector - China Ping An and China Life Insurance had market capitalizations of 1,039.258 billion and 356.818 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 24.93 billion and 6.12 billion. Their stock prices increased by 0.42 (+1.15%) and 0.03 (+0.36%) [3]. Liquor Industry - Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye had market capitalizations of 1,805.156 billion, 220.936 billion, and 480.465 billion respectively. Their trading volumes were 59.85 billion, 25.98 billion, and 30.62 billion, with stock price increases of 5.03 (+2.86%), 20.65 (+1.46%), and 1.13 (+0.92%) [3]. Semiconductor Sector - Northern Huachuang, Cambricon Technologies, and Hygon had market capitalizations of 234.658 billion, 243.739 billion, and 318.365 billion respectively. Their trading volumes were 26.40 billion, 29.85 billion, and 16.55 billion, with stock price changes of +6.59 (+2.07%), -1.03 (-0.75%), and +0.22 (+0.04%) [3]. Oil Industry - Sinopec and PetroChina had market capitalizations of 271.538 billion and 705.647 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 8.53 billion and 6.48 billion. Their stock prices increased by 0.09 (+1.57%) and remained unchanged [3]. Coal Industry - China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry had market capitalizations of 743.083 billion and 185.562 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 7.78 billion and 9.61 billion, with stock price increases of 0.27 (+0.73%) and 0.17 (+0.90%) [3]. Automotive Sector - BYD had a market capitalization of 1,808.349 billion with a trading volume of 44.82 billion, closing at 329.11, up by 1.09 (+0.33%) [3]. Shipping and Port Sector - No specific data provided for this sector in the document [4]. Power Industry - No specific data provided for this sector in the document [4]. Securities Sector - CITIC Securities had a market capitalization of 420.014 billion with a trading volume of 18.87 billion, closing at 28.34, up by 0.09 (+0.32%) [4]. Battery Sector - CATL had a market capitalization of 1,236.485 billion with a trading volume of 59.82 billion, closing at 271.20, up by 5.70 (+2.15%) [4]. Consumer Electronics - Industrial Fulian and Luxshare Precision had market capitalizations of 538.390 billion and 280.871 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 35.27 billion and 53.15 billion, with stock price decreases of -0.39 (-1.42%) and -0.67 (-1.70%) [4]. Home Appliances - Haidilao and Gree Electric Appliances had market capitalizations of 268.195 billion and 241.985 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 10.06 billion and 8.44 billion, with stock price changes of +0.32 (+0.67%) and -0.02 (-0.08%) [4]. Chemical and Pharmaceutical Sector - Hengrui Medicine had a market capitalization of 251.506 billion with a trading volume of 38.81 billion, closing at 47.71, up by 1.35 (+2.91%) [4]. Logistics Sector - SF Holding had a market capitalization of 241.541 billion with a trading volume of 11.63 billion, closing at 46.04, up by 0.76 (+1.68%) [4]. Non-ferrous Metals - Mindray Medical had a market capitalization of 273.187 billion with a trading volume of 25.08 billion, closing at 225.32, up by 8.14 (+3.75%) [4].

Group 1: Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 Index components showed a mixed performance with most sectors in the green, while the consumer electronics and internet services sectors experienced declines [1][6]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The banking sector, represented by Everbright Bank, had a market capitalization of 255.25 billion with a trading volume of 392 million, showing a slight increase of 1.17% [3]. - In the liquor industry, Kweichow Moutai led with a market cap of 1,797.53 billion and a trading volume of 3.923 billion, increasing by 1.37% [3]. - The semiconductor sector saw Northern Huachuang with a market cap of 233.94 billion and a trading volume of 1.908 billion, rising by 1.76% [3]. - In the oil sector, Sinopec had a market cap of 703.22 billion with a trading volume of 552 million, increasing by 1.22% [3]. - The coal industry was represented by China Shenhua with a market cap of 743.88 billion and a trading volume of 709 million, rising by 0.83% [3]. - In the automotive sector, BYD had a market cap of 1,793.90 billion with a trading volume of 516 million, but saw a decrease of 0.47% [3]. - The battery sector was led by CATL with a market cap of 4,189.77 billion and a trading volume of 1.153 billion, increasing by 0.88% [4]. - The consumer electronics sector, represented by Hon Hai Precision, had a market cap of 540.97 billion with a trading volume of 2.376 billion, decreasing by 0.74% [4]. - In the home appliance sector, Gree Electric had a market cap of 267.47 billion with a trading volume of 446 million, showing a slight decrease of 0.31% [4]. - The pharmaceutical sector was led by Hengrui Medicine with a market cap of 387.15 billion and a trading volume of 2.654 billion, increasing by 2.36% [4]. - The logistics sector, represented by SF Holding, had a market cap of 240.58 billion with a trading volume of 737 million, increasing by 1.04% [4].

Group 1 - The core concept of the new "anti-involution" supply-side reform differs significantly from the 2016 supply-side reform, focusing on regulating low-price competition rather than eliminating backward production capacity [1] - The "anti-involution" strategy aims to stabilize the price bottom in the coal industry by reducing disorderly competition, which is expected to lead to a more pragmatic bottom in the current market [1][3] - The report recommends leading companies in the coal sector, including China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH), China Coal Energy (601898.SH), and Jinkong Coal (601001.SH), as they are expected to benefit from the release of performance risks [1] Group 2 - The cement industry serves as a successful case of "anti-involution," where collaborative production cuts have led to a recovery in industry profitability, highlighting the challenges of implementing similar strategies in the coal sector [2] - The coal industry is currently at a fundamental turning point, with over 50% of coal enterprises reporting losses, particularly in coking coal, indicating a need for production cuts to stabilize prices [3] - The supply side has shown a significant decrease in production from April to May, with spontaneous production cuts occurring due to economic pressures, while demand has started to recover, suggesting a potential turning point for electricity consumption growth [3]