Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the aviation industry [6]. Core Insights - The Chinese civil aviation industry is expected to continue its recovery in supply and demand in 2025, with a forecasted industry-wide turnaround from losses to profitability [3][6]. - Demand is projected to grow steadily, with an estimated 5-6% increase in passenger traffic in 2025, including a 4% rise in domestic routes and over 20% in international routes [6][10]. - The supply side is entering a low growth phase, with a projected 3.7% increase in the fleet size of seven A-share airlines by November 2025 compared to the end of 2024 [6][19]. - The passenger load factor is expected to reach a historical high of 85%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [6][22]. - Ticket prices remain at historically low levels, with domestic ticket prices estimated to decrease by 2-3% year-on-year in 2025 [6][25]. - The industry is anticipated to significantly reduce losses and turn profitable in 2025, with quarterly performance showing improvements in profitability [6]. Summary by Sections Demand and Supply - Passenger traffic is expected to grow by 5-6% in 2025, with domestic routes increasing by 4% and international routes by over 20% [6][10]. - The industry is entering a low growth phase, with a projected 6% increase in available seat kilometers (ASK) [6][19]. Load Factor and Pricing - The passenger load factor is projected to increase by 1.8 percentage points to 85% [6][22]. - Domestic ticket prices are estimated to decrease by 2-3% year-on-year, while international ticket prices may see significant increases in the latter half of the year due to strong inbound demand [6][25]. Profitability Outlook - The industry is expected to turn profitable in 2025, with significant reductions in losses anticipated throughout the year [6]. - Quarterly performance indicates that the first quarter may see limited profit improvement due to high base effects, while the second quarter is expected to show substantial recovery [6].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：民航故事汇 在深航和山航发年终奖之后，详见：深航、山航发年终奖了 国航也发了，整体和2024年差不多。 2024年国航的年终奖是这样发的： 飞行700小时左右的飞行员5万左右 商委非一线员工1.8万左右 地服差不多1到1.5万左右，主要看工资档和绩效档 厦航也发了，比去年发的多。 有个小伙伴说多了几千块，据说后面还有。 2024年厦航的年终奖是这样发的： 空乘：乘务员1.2万左右，乘务长2万左右 南航应该明天发，去年是3A奖，今年是五好奖，换个名义，钱差不多。 机务：航线技师中位数3万左右 羡慕央企国企，希望民营航司也争口气。赚钱的多发点，让员工过个好节！ 地面岗应该1万至3万不等，副驾也差不多这个数 往期文章回顾： 旗下的航司也发了，应该会少一点 国货航，第四个领导被查！ 旗下北方子航司职能部门员工1万出头，中级专员1万5左右 刚刚，东航发"年终奖" 山航，客服的问题？ 这个"机长"，求鉴定！ 东航，增加员工福利 海航旗下这家航司，退出历史？ 深圳机场，叶滨、陈智文．．．． 这．．．也能投诉国航空姐？ 长龙航空，愿赔100元 责 ...

Investment Strategy Overview - The transportation industry is closely linked to the macroeconomic environment, with a weak overall performance in 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index. Key segments like railways and highways have weakened due to style shifts, while logistics, aviation, and shipping have seen some support in the second half of the year from anti-involution and external demand factors, but still lag behind the market index. Looking ahead to 2026, domestic demand is expected to improve driven by anti-involution and major infrastructure projects, with recommendations to focus on (1) improved domestic express delivery competition and benefiting bulk supply chains from upstream price recovery, (2) growth in business and leisure demand potentially returning aviation airports to profitability, and (3) the high prosperity cycle of oil transportation [5][72]. 2025 Review - The transportation industry index showed a stable performance, with a cumulative increase of 1.55% as of December 29, 2025, but underperformed the CSI 300 index. The performance of sub-sectors varied, with aviation airports, shipping ports, railways, and logistics showing cumulative changes of 9.74%, 6.56%, -12.86%, and 6.34% respectively, all underperforming the CSI 300 index [13][14]. Aviation Sector - The aviation supply-demand landscape continues to improve, with aircraft utilization recovering to high levels. Domestic civil aviation demand has been steadily increasing, with passenger volume reaching new highs in the second half of 2025. The average daily utilization of aircraft in China was 8.7 hours as of November 2025, nearing pre-pandemic levels [18][21]. - The average ticket price has stabilized, with a peak passenger load factor of 87.5% in August 2025. The market supply-demand situation is tight, and further tightening could boost ticket prices [23][24]. - The supply side faces challenges with aircraft manufacturers struggling to restore production capacity, with Boeing and Airbus delivering significantly fewer aircraft than pre-pandemic levels. As of 2024, Boeing delivered 348 commercial aircraft, while Airbus delivered 766, both below their respective 2019 levels [25][26]. - The demand side is supported by policy initiatives that have revitalized business activities, with business line passenger volume increasing year-on-year in the first eight months of 2025 [34][36]. - Cost pressures are alleviated by declining oil prices, with WTI futures at $56.74 per barrel as of December 26, 2025, down 54.13% from peak levels. The strengthening of the RMB also reduces dollar-denominated debt burdens for airlines [40][43]. Oil Transportation Sector - The oil transportation industry is currently in a high prosperity cycle, with oil prices influenced by demand fluctuations and unexpected events. The BDTI index has seen an uptick, indicating potential for improved industry conditions [46][47]. - Short-term demand is driven by significant U.S. strategic petroleum reserve replenishment needs, while long-term demand is expected to stabilize globally. The IEA forecasts a growth of 2.5 million barrels per day in global oil demand from 2024 to 2030 [49][51]. - The supply side is characterized by tight compliance capacity, with sanctions on shadow fleets leading to a reduction in compliant shipping capacity. This is expected to gradually elevate oil transportation rates [56][57]. Bulk Supply Chain Sector - The bulk supply chain sector is transitioning from traditional trading and logistics models to integrated service provider models, enhancing resource control and operational efficiency. Leading companies are learning from international experiences to improve their market positions [60][63]. - The sector is currently fragmented, with a low market share for leading firms (CR5 at around 5%). As domestic companies consolidate, there is potential for increased market share and profitability [63][64]. - The anti-involution trend is expected to stabilize the PPI, benefiting bulk supply chains as they recover from price declines. The sector is poised to benefit from price rebounds and improved demand conditions [65][66]. Investment Recommendations - Maintain a market-weight rating for the transportation industry, with a focus on improving domestic demand and sector recovery in 2026. Recommended stocks include China National Aviation (601111), Southern Airlines (600029), and Xiamen Xiangyu (600057) [72][74].

Core Viewpoint - The aviation and airport sector experienced a decline of 1.18% on December 30, with China Southern Airlines leading the drop. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3965.12, down 0.0%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.49% to 13604.07 [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - The following stocks in the aviation and airport sector showed notable price changes: - China Southern Airlines (南方航空) closed at 7.66, down 1.03% with a trading volume of 545,000 shares and a transaction value of 418 million yuan [1]. - Xiamen Airport (厦门空港) closed at 17.48, down 2.35% with a trading volume of 100,200 shares and a transaction value of 176 million yuan [2]. - Spring Airlines (春秋航空) closed at 57.60, down 1.42% with a trading volume of 56,100 shares and a transaction value of 322 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector saw a net outflow of 120 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 175 million yuan [2]. - The capital flow for specific stocks included: - China National Aviation (中国国航) had a net inflow of 46.13 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 47.90 million yuan [3]. - Xiamen Airport (厦门空港) experienced a net outflow of 26.25 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net inflow of 38.02 million yuan from retail investors [3].

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601111 | 中国国航 | 9.10 | 4.36% | 132.56万 | 12.10亿 | | 601021 | 春秋航空 | 58.43 | 3.51% | 7.04万 | 4.07亿 | | 600029 | 南方航空 | 7.74 | 2.93% | C 83.93万 | 6.50亿 | | 600115 | 中国东航 | 5.69 | 2.52% | 143.38万 | 8.16亿 | | 603885 | 吉祥航空 | 14.25 | 1.64% | 24.13万 | 3.43亿 | | 600221 | 海航控股 | 1.81 | 0.56% | 1039.67万 | 19.03亿 | | 6600000 | 中信海直 | 20.48 | 0.34% | 15.36万 | 3.16亿 | | 600009 | 上海机场 | 33.39 | 0.03% | 10.75万 | 3.61亿 | | 002928 | 华夏航空 | 10 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Beijing Subway's Capital Airport Line has officially launched a luggage check-in service at Dongzhimen Station, enhancing the travel experience for passengers heading to Terminal 3 of the Capital Airport by allowing them to complete self-check-in and luggage drop-off at the subway station, ensuring a seamless transition from subway to boarding. Group 1: Service Improvements - The project aims to support the construction of Beijing's international aviation "dual hub" and alleviate ground traffic pressure at the Capital Airport, thereby improving travel efficiency [3]. - Approximately 1,166 square meters of service area have been renovated, and 8 dedicated luggage carriages have been adapted for the trains, along with the installation and debugging of full-process equipment [3]. Group 2: Functional Enhancements - The renovation optimizes passenger flow by connecting the B1 level hall with the check-in area, adding 2 dedicated luggage elevators from B1 to B4 platforms, and installing self-check-in equipment and luggage ramps [3]. - A collaborative operational model has been established between the subway company, Air China, and Beijing Capital International Airport, defining responsibilities for luggage sorting, transport, and unloading to create an efficient service loop [3]. Group 3: Safety and Guidance - Safety measures include physical separation of luggage check-in areas from passenger boarding zones, with nearly 200 new and optimized directional signs and helpful posters to guide passengers [3]. - The luggage will be transported directly to Terminal 3 via dedicated carriages, reducing queue times at the airport and alleviating pressure on check-in counters [3]. Group 4: Future Developments - The subway company plans to continuously improve the "rail + air" intermodal transport model, optimize train operation organization, and ensure capacity supply to provide more efficient and convenient comprehensive transportation services [4].

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消息面上，据新华社12月27日报道，全国人大常委会会议12月27日表决通过新修订的民用航空法，自 2026年7月1日起施行。这部新修订的法律共16章262条，本次修法贯彻落实党中央决策部署，适应民航 事业发展新形势新要求，充实完善规范民用航空活动、保障民用航空安全和支持民航制造业、运输业、 低空经济发展的各方面制度措施，对于推动民航事业高质量发展具有重要意义。 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 曾庆怡）12月29日上午，A股民用航空概念震荡上涨。截至10时11分，中国 国航涨超6%，中国东航、南方航空涨超3%。港股航空板块同步拉升，中国国航、中国东方航空股份涨 超3%，中国南方航空股份涨超2%。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 曾庆怡）12月29日上午，A股民用航空概念震荡上涨。截至10时11分，中国 国航涨超6%，中国东航、南方航空涨超3%。港股航空板块同步拉升，中国国航、中国东方航空股份涨 超3%，中国南方航空股份涨超2%。 消息面上，据新华社12月27日报道，全国人大常委会会议12月27日表决通过新修订的民用航空法，自 2026年7月1日起施行。这部新修订的法律共16章262条，本次修法 ...

本文源自：金融界AI电报 近日连续回调的港股三大指数再度活跃，中国国航一度涨近5%刷新近期阶段新高，中国东方航空目前 涨3.5%，中国南方航空涨2%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the recent rebound in Hong Kong's stock indices, particularly in the airline sector, with China National Aviation experiencing a nearly 5% increase, reaching a recent high [1] - The upcoming New Year holiday is expected to drive both volume and price increases in the airline ticket market, with significant activity noted in the tourism sector due to multiple factors including the closure of Hainan and the approaching holiday [1] - The civil aviation market for the New Year holiday shows a marked increase in activity compared to previous years, with airlines boosting capacity on popular winter tourism routes, leading to higher ticket sales progress [1] Group 2 - Specific stock performance includes China National Aviation at 7.070 with a 3.97% increase, China Eastern Airlines at 5.280 with a 3.53% increase, and China Southern Airlines at 5.700 with a 1.97% increase [2] - There is a notable increase in passenger flow from Northeast regions to Shenzhen, with a year-on-year growth of 4.3% in traffic at Shenzhen Airport [1]