王笑对2026年衍生品市场进行了展望。他表示，2026年全球地缘局势进入缓和期，经济结构的修复要关 注政策导向及落地情况、内外部的经济共振机会和内生性的自然修复。2026年资产价格可能"抢跑"，但 基本面的绝对变化或体现在2027年。在资产表现上，在经济结构调整的背景下，企业净资产收益率 (ROE)修复有望推动估值上涨。对商品而言，2026年基本面没有较大改变，不同品种的分化走势仍将持 续，关注价格反转的可能性。风险因素方面，需关注地缘局势缓和不及预期对资产价格的负面影响。 王笑随后主持以"大咖面对面——全域资产配置与跨境投资新机遇"为主题的圆桌论坛。论坛邀约不同领 域的行业专家，以不同的资产视角对2026年宏观经济和资产变化进行了探讨。在跨市场、跨行业的大咖 对话中，4位行业顶尖专家针对明年的经济周期定位、大类资产配置机会、固收和债券的投资观点、量 化市场发展结构等进行了热烈的讨论。 会议为期2天，共设1场主论坛和9场分论坛，分论坛议题涵盖有色金属及贵金属板块、黑色和能化板 块、新能源板块、"十五五"产业规划、资产配置等，各路专家、分析师与嘉宾围绕热点问题进行了深入 讨论。 本次会议的视频回放将于12月29 ...

Group 1 - The company ChaoDa Equipment announced that it will accept investor research on December 23, 2025, from 10:00 to 11:00, with the company’s board secretary Guo Weiwei participating to answer investor questions [1] Group 2 - The real estate sector is facing challenges, with a "top-performing" company struggling with a due debt of 2 billion yuan, and negotiations for the first debt extension are ongoing [1] - There are over 10 billion yuan of public debts due next year, indicating significant financial pressure within the industry [1]

中国经济网北京12月23日讯今日，上海国泰海通证券资产管理有限公司公告，国泰海通安悦债券、国泰 海通安裕中短债债券增聘李夏。 李夏历任万家共赢资产管理有限公司资产管理部项目经理，上海海通证券资产管理有限公司固定收益部 研究员、投资经理、公募固收部基金经理、公募固收部总监助理、公募固收部总监和专户固收部总监， 2025年11月加入上海国泰海通证券资产管理有限公司，现任固定收益投资部(公募)基金经理。 国泰海通安悦债券A/C成立于2025年10月29日。 国泰海通安裕中短债债券A/C成立于2025年11月5日。 | 基金名称 | 因泰海通安悦债券型证券投资基金 | | --- | --- | | 基金简称 | 国泰海通安悦债券 | | 基金主代码 | 025596 | | 基金管理人名称 | 上海国泰海通证券资产管理有限公司 | | 公告依据 | 《公开募集证券投资基金信息披露管理办法》、《基金管理公司投 资管理人员管理指导意见》等相关法律法规规定 | | 基金经理变更类型 | 增聘基金经理 | | 新任基金经理姓名 | 李夏 | | 共同管理本基金的其他基金经 | 李佳闻 | | 理姓名 | | | 基金名称 ...

Core Insights - The 2026 Annual Strategy Conference of Guotai Junan Futures was held in Hangzhou, focusing on macro trends, industrial upgrades, asset allocation, and the development of the derivatives market [2][11] - Keynote speeches were delivered by prominent economists and analysts, discussing the current economic landscape and future outlooks for the Chinese market [4][13] Economic Outlook - Sheng Songcheng, Director of the China Chief Economist Forum, emphasized the need for continuous policy support for economic recovery, advocating for a balance between investment and consumption, and highlighting the potential impact of RMB appreciation on asset performance [5][13] - Fang Yi, Chief Strategist at Guotai Haitong Securities, expressed optimism about the A-share market, predicting a significant growth cycle starting in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index expected to surpass 4000 points again [6][14] Market Trends - Wang Xiao, Research Director at Guotai Junan Futures, projected a period of geopolitical easing in 2026, focusing on policy guidance and economic synchronization [6][15] - The K-shaped economic recovery was highlighted, with a focus on the divergence between high-growth sectors and traditional economic cycles, as well as the potential for price convergence in commodities [6][15] Forum Discussions - A roundtable forum was held to discuss macroeconomic conditions and asset changes for 2026, featuring insights from industry experts on economic cycles, asset allocation opportunities, and developments in the quantitative market [7][16] - The conference included one main forum and nine sub-forums covering topics such as precious metals, energy, and the "14th Five-Year Plan" for industrial development [7][17]

Core Insights - The annual strategy conference of Guotai Junan Futures was held on December 22, 2026, focusing on macro trends, industrial upgrades, asset allocation, and the development of the derivatives market [1] - Experts from various fields provided insights on China's economic recovery, the outlook for the A-share market, and the future of the derivatives market [2][3] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Sheng Songcheng, the director of the China Chief Economist Forum, emphasized the need for continuous policy support for economic recovery, balancing investment and consumption, and the impact of RMB appreciation on asset performance [1] - The overall economic operation is stable, but further recovery requires sustained policy efforts [1] Group 2: A-Share Market Perspective - Fang Yi, Chief Strategist at Guotai Haitong Securities, expressed optimism about the A-share market, predicting a significant development cycle starting in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index potentially reaching new highs [2] - The transformation of the underlying logic of the Chinese stock market is evident, as concerns over U.S.-China conflicts and economic visibility are diminishing, leading to a more favorable environment for capital markets [2] Group 3: Derivatives Market Forecast - Wang Xiao, Research Director at Guotai Junan Futures, projected that 2026 would be a year of adjustment and recovery in the global geopolitical landscape, with a focus on policy guidance and economic resonance [3] - The K-shaped economic divergence will continue, with high-growth industries and traditional economic cycles showing distinct trends, while the potential for price reversals should be monitored [3] Group 4: Forum Discussions - A roundtable forum was held to discuss macroeconomic and asset changes for 2026, featuring industry experts who explored economic cycle positioning, asset allocation opportunities, and developments in quantitative markets [4] - The conference included one main forum and nine sub-forums covering topics such as precious metals, black energy, new energy, and asset allocation strategies, fostering in-depth discussions among experts and analysts [4]

Core Viewpoint - The media industry is at a critical juncture with the accelerated development of AI applications and an upward cycle in the cultural and entertainment sector, with expectations for strong performance in 2025 and continued strength in 2026 driven by product and policy resonance [1] Group 1: Media Industry Performance - The media index has seen a maximum increase of over 40% within the year, with the gaming sector leading the gains [2] - The media index reached its lowest point on January 13, 2025, and its highest on September 25, 2025, with a maximum decline of 6.42% and a maximum increase of 42.24%, resulting in over 50% growth from the lowest to the highest point [2] - The gaming index exhibited the most remarkable performance with a maximum increase of 98.45%, while the film and cinema index benefited from the 2025 Spring Festival, achieving nearly 50% growth [2] - The media industry reported steady revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with a nearly 40% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, driven primarily by the gaming sector, which saw a nearly 90% increase in net profit [2] Group 2: AI Applications and Entertainment Industry Trends - The rapid development of AI applications is highlighted by the issuance of the "Artificial Intelligence+" action plan by the State Council in August 2025, indicating that AI has become a national strategic priority, potentially creating new ecosystems, scenarios, and businesses [3] - Domestic IPs such as "Nezha" and "Black Myth: Wukong" have gained popularity not only in China but also globally, showcasing the strong vitality of entertainment content forms like games and films that emerged during the internet era [3] - Popular entertainment content such as "Supernatural Action Group," "Endless Winter," "Nezha: The Devil's Child," and "Zootopia 2" continues to attract significant engagement from players and audiences in 2025 [3] - New policies from the National Radio and Television Administration in August aim to promote innovation in the entertainment industry, injecting new vitality into content creation [3] Group 3: Future Expectations in Gaming and Film - The launch of multiple new games in 2025 has demonstrated high traffic and revenue, which is expected to continue into 2026 [4] - Anticipated new games such as "Honor of Kings World," "Yihuan," and "Famous Generals Kill" are expected to contribute positively to the gaming market in the upcoming year [4] - Following several years of a "cold winter" in the film industry, the implementation of new regulations, including adjustments to policies on "costume drama ratios," "one drama two stars," "40-episode limits," and "banning mid-show advertisements," is expected to lead to a reversal in both policy and performance for the entertainment industry [4]

Group 1 - The core driving logic of coal price trends is the supply-demand pattern, with the current rapid decline in coal prices expected to have limited space, estimating a bottom range of 680-700 RMB/ton [1][2] - The demand for coal is currently at the median level of the past five years, with a recent downward trend in port inventories, although future weather conditions should be monitored [2] - The coal sector's cyclical bottom is confirmed in Q2 2025, with a reversal point in the supply-demand pattern, and expectations for a new upward cycle starting in H2 2026 for coal and downstream thermal power demand [1][2] Group 2 - As of December 19, 2025, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port is 721 RMB/ton, a decrease of 42 RMB/ton (-5.5%) from the previous week, with domestic supply stable and imports continuing to decline [2] - The main coking coal price at Jingtang Port is 1700 RMB/ton, an increase of 50 RMB/ton (3.0%), indicating a potential for demand to remain strong despite the seasonal downturn [3] - The average daily iron water production has slightly decreased, but demand is expected to remain robust during the off-season [3]

Group 1 - The domestic AI large model industry is experiencing a critical phase of accelerated technological productization and deepening capitalization processes [2] - Volcano Engine released the Doubao Model 1.8 and Seedance 1.5 Pro, achieving significant technological breakthroughs and reducing enterprise usage costs through innovative business models [2] - The daily token processing volume has surpassed 50 trillion, indicating robust operational capacity in the AI sector [2] Group 2 - The issuance of L3-level autonomous driving vehicle permits marks a transition to conditional commercialization in China, with specific models from Chang'an and BAIC gaining approval for limited road use [3] - The vehicles are subject to speed limits and the responsibility for vehicle operation lies with manufacturers during normal system operation, reflecting a cautious regulatory approach [3] - This development will provide essential practical evidence for improving technical standards, legal regulations, and insurance systems in the autonomous driving industry [3] Group 3 - Domestic GPU companies are actively pursuing capital market listings to support intensive R&D and market expansion, with Tensu Zhixin planning to raise $300 to $400 million through the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [4] - Other companies like Birran Technology and Kunlun Chip Technology are also advancing their listing processes, indicating a significant shift towards capital market-driven growth in China's semiconductor industry [4] - This trend highlights the acceleration of the self-sufficiency process in key design aspects of the semiconductor sector [4]

12 月 23 日， 2025 年 Wind "金牌期货研究奖"评选结果正式揭晓。本届评选仍以"万得平台卖方机构研究报告阅读数"这一客观指标作为评选依据，在保 证数据独立公正的基础上，最终形成评选结果。本届评选共设立研究机构综合奖及研究领域单项奖，以及 10 个商品细分行业研究奖，参选机构 49 家， 共有 22 家期货公司获奖。 "金牌期货研究奖"统计了来自基金公司，以及各类资管机构的研报阅读数，评选结果旨在多角度、客观体现获奖团队和机构在各领域研究能力受市场认可 度，展示研究团队的品牌价值和研究实力， 现隆重揭晓获奖名单！ 国泰君安期货 (元 广发期货 ge CM2 五矿期货 宝城期货 410 中信期货 乖 永安期货 光大期货 上海东证期货 00 F 100 l 发 紫金天风期货 国信期货 ITG 国贸期货 型走崩裂 Maike 迈科期货 金源期货 59L 方正中期期货 信达期货 冠通期货 百 华融融达期货 19 m 宏源期货 东海期货 用数据说话 / 无主观投票 2025 年 Wind 第 6 届 金融斯货研究 评选结果重磅揭晓 研究领域单项奖 Wind金牌期货研究榜单 我能能影 . 厅 广发期货 国泰 ...

Group 1 - The announcement date is December 23, 2025 [1] - The company has completed relevant procedures with the Asset Management Association of China [1] - The new fund manager's information is provided [1] Group 2 - The MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating positive trends for certain stocks [1]