Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal mining industry is expected to maintain a stable and slightly strong price trend due to seasonal demand increases and supply constraints [7][75] - The overall supply and demand for coal remain balanced, with port coal prices holding steady [14][73] - The report highlights the resilience of leading coal companies, which exhibit strong cash flow and profitability characteristics [7][75] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - As of November 21, the price of thermal coal at northern ports is 834 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week [14][15] - Production capacity utilization in the Sanxi region increased by 0.14 percentage points to 89.93% as of November 19, indicating stable supply [21][73] - Electricity consumption in October reached 857.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, driven by low base effects and seasonal heating demand [14][73] 2. Coking Coal - The price of main coking coal at the Jing Tang port decreased to 1780 CNY/ton, down 80 CNY/ton week-on-week [39][40] - Coking coal production capacity utilization increased by 0.07 percentage points to 84.3% during the week of November 12-19, indicating a slight recovery in supply [39][74] - The average crossing volume at the Ganqimaodu port remains high, with a seven-day average of 1,339 vehicles [39][74] 3. Coke - The report notes that coking enterprises have completed four rounds of price increases, improving profit margins [52][75] - The production capacity utilization of coking enterprises increased slightly by 0.04 percentage points to 74.21% [52][75] - The average profit per ton of coke increased to approximately 19 CNY/ton, reflecting improved profitability in the sector [56] 4. Anthracite - The price of anthracite coal remains stable, with the small block price at 930 CNY/ton as of November 21 [68][75] 5. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Yanzhou Coal Mining, all of which are rated as "Buy" [9][75] - The report emphasizes the strong financial health and growth potential of leading coal companies, suggesting a favorable investment environment [7][75]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. (601225) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was CNY 118.08 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.81%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 12.71 billion, down 27.22% year-on-year [1] - The report highlights that coal prices are on the rise, supporting profit recovery, and the coal-electricity integration strengthens long-term advantages [1] - The report anticipates that coal prices will continue to rise in the fourth quarter due to increased winter storage demand from downstream power plants and stricter safety inspections affecting coal production [7] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of CNY 40.10 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20.91%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.03%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 5.07 billion, down 26.59% year-on-year but up 79.08% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The average selling price of coal for the first three quarters of 2025 was CNY 540.2 per ton, a decrease of 12.63% year-on-year, while the production and sales volumes were 130.37 million tons and 189.20 million tons, respectively, showing slight year-on-year increases of 2.03% and 0.40% [7] - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 at CNY 17.94 billion, CNY 20.59 billion, and CNY 23.35 billion, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 12x, 11x, and 10x [7] Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its coal production capacity, with recent approvals for capacity increases at its coal mines, which will contribute to stable growth in its coal business [7] - The integration of coal and electricity production is expected to improve the company's profitability, creating a complete industrial chain from coal mining to electricity generation [7] - The current dividend yield is approximately 4.8%, based on a 60% payout ratio for 2025 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, indicating a favorable investment rating due to the rising cost structure and expected increase in coal prices [2][6]. Core Insights - The coal industry is experiencing a structural change with a systematic increase in the cost base, driven by factors such as increased mining depth, stricter environmental compliance, and rising safety investments. This has led to a higher price floor for coal, making it unlikely to return to the low levels seen in 2015 [8][7]. - The report emphasizes that the rising costs are not a temporary phenomenon but are supported by rigid factors such as labor costs, safety investments, and environmental governance, which are expected to persist in the long term [7][8]. - The anticipated tightening of supply due to production constraints and limited new capacity is expected to support a steady increase in coal prices [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Cost Research Framework - The report outlines the components of coal production costs, including direct and indirect costs, with a focus on production costs as the most significant element [16][17]. 2. Thermal Coal: Cost Support and Price Floor - From 2015 to 2024, the average complete cost of thermal coal for sample enterprises increased from 216 CNY/ton to 306 CNY/ton, with a CAGR of 4%. The production cost rose from 161 CNY/ton to 231 CNY/ton [29][30]. - In 2024, benchmark companies like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy have complete costs of 251, 294, and 310 CNY/ton respectively [29][30]. 3. Coking Coal: Rising Cost Support - The complete cost of coking coal for sample companies increased from 546 CNY/ton to 1051 CNY/ton from 2015 to 2024, with a CAGR of 7.6%. The production cost rose from 432 CNY/ton to 814 CNY/ton [5][6]. - The report indicates that the cost structure for coking coal is also expected to rise due to increased mining difficulty and regulatory pressures [5][6]. 4. Supply Tightening and Market Dynamics - The report notes that domestic coal production has been in negative growth since July, influenced by loss pressures and capacity checks, which are expected to tighten supply further [6][7]. - Import volumes have been declining for eight consecutive months, limiting the ability to supplement domestic supply [6][7]. 5. Key Conclusions and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stable, high-dividend stocks such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, while also suggesting attention to more elastic stocks like Jinko Coal and Huayang Co. [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The Freedom Cash Flow ETF CSI All Share (561080) experienced a decline of 1.70% as of the midday close on November 21, with a trading volume of 4.1672 million yuan [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Freedom Cash Flow ETF CSI All Share (561080) closed at 1.211 yuan [1] - The fund has a performance benchmark of the CSI All Share Free Cash Flow Index return rate [1] - Since its establishment on April 23, 2025, the fund has achieved a return of 23.00%, with a one-month return of 4.57% [1] Group 2: Major Holdings - Major stocks in the Freedom Cash Flow ETF include: - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) down 1.44% - Midea Group down 0.05% - Gree Electric Appliances down 0.74% - Wuliangye Yibin down 0.36% - China COSCO Shipping down 0.46% - Luoyang Molybdenum down 3.48% - TCL Technology down 1.92% - China Aluminum down 4.08% - SF Express down 1.34% - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry down 0.43% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the trends in China's coal industry, particularly focusing on the production statistics and future development forecasts [1] - In September 2025, China's raw coal production was reported at 410 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% [1] - From January to September 2025, the cumulative raw coal production in China reached 3.57 billion tons, showing a cumulative growth of 2% [1] Group 2 - The article lists key listed companies in the coal sector, including China Shenhua (601088), Zhongmei Energy (601898), Shanxi Coking Coal (000983), and others [1] - The report referenced is the "China Coal Industry Panorama Research and Future Development Trend Assessment Report (2026 Edition)" published by Zhiyan Consulting [1] - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, providing comprehensive industry research reports and customized services [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shaanxi Coal Industry experienced a decline of 2.48% in stock price on November 20, with a trading volume of 600 million yuan, indicating a challenging market environment for the company [1]. Financing Summary - On November 20, Shaanxi Coal Industry had a financing buy-in amount of 55.96 million yuan, with a net financing buy of 36.23 million yuan after repayments [1]. - The total financing and securities balance reached 623 million yuan, with the financing balance at 616 million yuan, representing 0.27% of the circulating market value, which is below the 10% percentile level over the past year [1]. - In terms of securities lending, 97,000 shares were repaid, while 21,900 shares were sold, amounting to 507,400 yuan in sales [1]. Business Performance - As of September 30, the number of shareholders for Shaanxi Coal Industry increased by 2.07% to 105,000, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 2.02% to 92,312 shares [2]. - For the period from January to September 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 118.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.86%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.71 billion yuan, down 20.26% year-on-year [2]. Dividend Information - Since its A-share listing, Shaanxi Coal Industry has distributed a total of 81.645 billion yuan in dividends, with 47.331 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholding Structure - As of September 30, 2025, China Securities Finance Corporation is the second-largest circulating shareholder with 195 million shares, unchanged from the previous period [3]. - Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the third-largest shareholder with 133 million shares, a decrease of 10.7 million shares compared to the previous period [3]. - The eighth-largest shareholder, Huaxia SSE 50 ETF, holds 74.05 million shares, down by 2.0086 million shares, while the tenth-largest shareholder, Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF, holds 66.06 million shares, a decrease of 2.8122 million shares [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a slight adjustment towards market-oriented policies in the long-term coal supply contracts for 2026 compared to 2025, with both quantity and price aspects moving closer to market mechanisms [2][7] - The signing volume for coal enterprises is set to be no less than 75% of their own resource volume, while for power generation enterprises, the minimum signing volume should be at least 80% of the demand [2] - The fulfillment rates have been relaxed slightly, with monthly fulfillment remaining at no less than 80%, quarterly fulfillment now being generally no less than 90%, and annual fulfillment also generally no less than 90% [2] - The pricing mechanism for long-term contracts may begin to reference indices, with a monthly adjustment mechanism established for the pricing of coal from production areas [3][4] - The report emphasizes that the coal mining industry continues to show a long-term upward price trend driven by factors such as rising labor costs, increased safety and environmental investments, and higher taxation by local governments [8] Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The 2026 policy document indicates that contracts for coal from production areas must align with reasonable price ranges and establish a monthly adjustment mechanism through negotiation between supply and demand enterprises [3] - The pricing for long-term contracts for coal remains unchanged, with a base price set at current levels [4] Market Performance - As of November 19, 2025, the coal mining sector has shown a performance of 2.3% over one month, 11.3% over three months, and 0.2% over twelve months, compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index which recorded 1.6%, 8.6%, and 15.4% respectively [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on robust companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, highlighting their strong cash flow and high asset quality [8] - Specific recommendations include: - Steady stocks: China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others - Stocks with greater elasticity in thermal coal: Yanzhou Coal, Jinko Energy, and others - Stocks with greater elasticity in coking coal: Huaibei Mining, Pingdingshan Coal, and others [8] Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for several coal enterprises [10]

Market Overview - The coal mining sector experienced a decline of 2.08% on November 20, with Dayou Energy leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3931.05, down 0.4%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12980.82, down 0.76% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Notable stock performances include: - Xindazhou A (000571) increased by 0.88% to close at 5.76, with a trading volume of 342,200 shares and a turnover of 195 million yuan [1] - Dayou Energy (600403) fell by 9.97% to 8.31, with a trading volume of 1,108,400 shares and a turnover of 95.26 million yuan [2] - China Shenhua (601088) decreased by 1.22% to 42.00, with a trading volume of 140,700 shares and a turnover of 596 million yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The coal mining sector saw a net outflow of 564 million yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 580 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for individual stocks indicates: - Huai Bei Mining (600985) had a net outflow of 35.39 million yuan from major funds [3] - Electric Power Investment Energy (002128) recorded a net inflow of 22.42 million yuan from major funds [3] - New Dazhou A (000571) experienced a net inflow of 18.34 million yuan from major funds [3]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.40% on November 20, with 7 industries experiencing gains, led by construction materials and comprehensive sectors, which rose by 1.40% and 0.87% respectively [1] - The coal industry saw a decline of 2.10%, ranking second in terms of the largest drop [1] Capital Flow - The main capital outflow from both markets totaled 47.655 billion yuan, with only 4 industries seeing net inflows [1] - The banking sector led the net inflow with 2.188 billion yuan, followed by the communication sector with a net inflow of 1 billion yuan [1] Coal Industry Analysis - The coal industry experienced a net outflow of 675 million yuan, with 37 stocks in the sector; only 2 stocks rose while 35 fell, including 1 stock hitting the daily limit down [2] - The top three stocks with the highest net outflow in the coal sector were Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (987.269 million yuan), Yongtai Energy (881.709 million yuan), and Meijin Energy (826.157 million yuan) [2][3] - The stock with the highest net inflow was Huaibei Mining, with an inflow of 30.667 million yuan [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the coal mining sector [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes three key viewpoints regarding the coal market dynamics and investment strategies [4][9] - It highlights that the recent price adjustments are a normal digestion of previous rapid increases, and the core logic of rising coal prices due to supply constraints remains unchanged [4] - The report anticipates that as demand (whether speculative or real) activates, coal prices will rise, with expectations for prices to peak at the end of the year, potentially exceeding market expectations [4] Summary by Sections Production - In October, the raw coal production decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with an output of 410 million tons, maintaining the same level as September [15][8] - For the first ten months of 2025, the cumulative production reached 3.97 billion tons, reflecting a growth of 1.5% year-on-year [15] - The forecast for 2025 suggests that the total thermal coal production may reach approximately 3.88 billion tons, with a growth rate narrowing to around 1.4% [15] Imports - In October, coal imports fell by 9.75% year-on-year, totaling 41.73 million tons, which is a decrease of 4.51 million tons compared to the same month last year [21][8] - For the first ten months of 2025, total coal imports amounted to 38.76 million tons, down 11% year-on-year [21] - The report predicts that the annual thermal coal import level may decline to around 38 million tons, a decrease of 6.4% year-on-year [21] Demand - In October, the industrial power generation increased by 7.9% year-on-year, with a total of 800.2 billion kWh generated [24][8] - The industrial thermal power generation saw a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, reversing a decline of 5.4% in September [24] - Conversely, crude steel production in October dropped by 12.07% year-on-year, amounting to 72 million tons, with the decline accelerating compared to September [37][8] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-performing stocks, particularly in the coal sector, including China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Yancoal [45][9] - It suggests a shift towards second-tier stocks as coal prices continue to rise, emphasizing the importance of selecting stocks based on performance and valuation [9]