Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and others, indicating a positive outlook for the coal mining sector [9]. Core Viewpoints - The current coal price dynamics are primarily driven by "real demand" rather than speculative demand, with expectations of increased consumption as colder weather approaches [2][6]. - The coal market is experiencing a phase of price adjustment due to a lack of significant demand, with coal prices expected to stabilize and potentially rise as winter progresses and consumption increases [2][11]. - The report emphasizes that while coal prices are currently under pressure, the overall upward trend remains intact due to supply constraints and the potential for demand to pick up [6][11]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index decreased by 0.54%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.18 percentage points, ranking 29th among CITIC sectors [1][76]. - As of November 28, 2025, the price of thermal coal at northern ports was reported at 824 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 7 CNY/ton [35][76]. Key Areas of Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: The market sentiment is weak, leading to price adjustments. The supply remains stable, but demand is not meeting expectations, causing inventory pressures [11][14]. - **Coking Coal**: Prices are declining due to reduced purchasing from downstream sectors, with many coking enterprises pausing purchases to manage existing inventory [40][50]. - **Coke**: The first round of price reductions has begun, with steel mills becoming more cautious in their procurement strategies [56][74]. Price Trends - The report notes that the price of coking coal has seen a cumulative decline of 50-130 CNY/ton across various grades, with expectations for further price drops in the short term [50][56]. - The average profit per ton of coke has increased, indicating a potential recovery in profitability for coking enterprises despite the overall market weakness [70][74]. Inventory and Supply Dynamics - Inventory levels for both thermal and coking coal are rising, with many downstream buyers halting purchases, leading to increased stockpiles at coal mines [45][56]. - The report highlights that the effective supply of domestic coking coal may gradually shrink due to regulatory pressures and limited new capacity [57][58].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Viewpoints - Since November, the coal price has declined due to weak demand, leading to a sector pullback. Despite high inventory levels at power plants limiting price increases, low port inventories and tight supply conditions suggest limited downside for prices. The current market presents value in dividend-paying stocks with stable earnings, especially considering year-end demand for insurance capital allocation [2][7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) fell by 0.51%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.15 percentage points. The thermal coal price at Qinhuangdao port was 816 CNY/ton, down 18 CNY/ton week-on-week [6][16] Supply and Demand Analysis - As of November 27, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 25 provinces was 5.41 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%. Power plant inventories were 137 million tons, with an available days supply of 25.2 days, up 0.6 days year-on-year. Port inventories showed a year-on-year decline of 9.5% [17][37] Price Trends - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port decreased by 2.16% week-on-week. The price of coking coal at Jingtang port was 1,670 CNY/ton, down 110 CNY/ton week-on-week. The market remains resilient due to low port inventories and seasonal demand [6][44] Investment Recommendations - Stock selection should focus on three strategies: defensive and offensive stocks like Yancoal Energy and Electric Power Investment Energy; stable leaders such as China Coal Energy and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical; and elastic growth stocks like Jinkong Coal and Lu'an Environmental Energy [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal mining industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the critical role of coal in ensuring power supply stability during the winter months, particularly in the context of increasing electricity demand driven by data centers [2][5]. - It highlights that the peak electricity demand in the U.S. is expected to increase by 166 GW over the next five years, with data centers being a significant contributor to this growth [2]. - The report suggests that coal-fired power generation will be essential in filling the supply gap during winter electricity shortages, reinforcing its importance as a reliable energy source [5]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining Prices - European ARA coal price is at $97.3 per ton, down by $1.44 per ton (-1.46%) from the previous week [1]. - Newcastle coal price is at $111.1 per ton, up by $0.2 per ton (+0.18%) [1]. - IPE South African Richards Bay coal price is at $85.1 per ton, up by $0.2 per ton (+0.18%) [1]. Electricity Demand - The report notes that coal power will play a crucial role in meeting electricity demand, especially during winter when renewable energy sources may be less reliable [5][6]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong performance potential, such as Yancoal Energy and Jinneng Holding, which are expected to benefit from the increased demand for coal [5][6]. Key Stocks - The report lists several key stocks with "Buy" ratings, including: - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) with an EPS forecast of 1.46 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 9.40 [6]. - China Shenhua Energy (601088.SH) with an EPS forecast of 2.95 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 14.40 [6]. - Jinneng Holding (601001.SH) with an EPS forecast of 1.68 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 9.00 [6]. Market Trends - The report indicates a significant increase in electricity demand, with data centers being a primary driver, and suggests that coal will remain a vital component of the energy mix in the coming years [2][5].

Core Insights - The coal mining sector experienced a 0.98% increase on November 27, with Xinda Zhou A leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3875.26, up 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12875.19, down 0.25% [1] Coal Mining Sector Performance - Xinda Zhou A (000571) closed at 5.67, up 3.85% with a trading volume of 365,900 shares and a transaction value of 203 million yuan [1] - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225) closed at 23.04, up 2.49% with a trading volume of 272,900 shares and a transaction value of 622 million yuan [1] - Dayou Energy (600403) closed at 8.02, up 1.78% with a trading volume of 589,800 shares and a transaction value of 471 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include Jinkong Coal Industry (601001) and Jiukang Energy (600188), with respective increases of 1.67% and 1.60% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The coal mining sector saw a net inflow of 9.66 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 13.74 million yuan [2] - However, there was a net outflow of 23.40 million yuan from speculative funds [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Yancoal Energy (600188) experienced a significant net outflow of 54.61 million yuan from institutional investors, indicating a 12.51% share of total capital flow [3] - Lu'an Environmental Energy (669T09) had a net inflow of 43.37 million yuan from institutional investors, representing 14.65% of total capital flow [3] - Yongtai Energy (600157) also saw a net inflow of 35.48 million yuan from institutional investors, accounting for 4.19% of total capital flow [3]

Core Viewpoint - Shaanxi Coal Industry's stock price has shown fluctuations with a recent increase of 2.00%, while the company faces a decline in revenue and net profit year-on-year [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of November 27, Shaanxi Coal's stock price is 22.93 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 222.31 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has increased by 4.31% year-to-date, but has seen a decline of 1.04% over the last five trading days [1]. - The trading volume on November 27 was 3.97 billion CNY, with a turnover rate of 0.18% [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Shaanxi Coal reported operating revenue of 118.08 billion CNY, a decrease of 5.86% year-on-year [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 12.71 billion CNY, down 20.26% compared to the previous year [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 105,000, while the average number of circulating shares per person decreased by 2.02% to 92,312 shares [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 81.65 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 47.33 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3]. - Major shareholders include China Securities Finance Corporation and Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, with the latter reducing its holdings by 10.7 million shares [3].

Investment Strategy - The oil and gas capital expenditure trend is declining, leading to a slowdown in supply growth. Since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, global capital expenditure in the oil and gas upstream sector has significantly decreased, with a notable drop of nearly 22% from the 2014 peak to $351 billion in 2021. This trend is expected to continue as major energy companies face pressure to decarbonize and shift focus towards energy transition and renewable projects [9][25][27] - The current active drilling rig count in the US remains low, with new well costs closely aligned with current oil prices, limiting profit margins. The growth rate of US oil production is anticipated to slow down, with evidence emerging from the first half of 2025 [9][25][27] Oil Market - Brent crude oil spot price is currently at $63.54 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.63%, while WTI crude oil is at $59.43 per barrel, down 0.43% [10][28] - The geopolitical situation, particularly the easing of tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, is contributing to a volatile oil price environment. The expectation of a breakthrough in diplomatic negotiations has led to fluctuations in oil prices [10][28] Coal Market - The average market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is reported at 820 RMB per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.35%. However, the market is experiencing a stalemate as downstream demand remains cautious towards high prices [11][12] - The total inventory at nine ports in the Bohai Rim is reported at 23.93 million tons, up 6.74% week-on-week, while southern ports report a decrease of 1.48% to 603.8 million tons [11][12] Coking Coal Market - Coking coal prices are experiencing a high-level consolidation, with the price of coking coal at the Jingtang port reported at 1,780 RMB per ton, down 4.30% week-on-week. The price of coking coal is less regulated compared to thermal coal, allowing producers to benefit from price increases [13][14] - The average daily iron output from 247 steel mills is reported at 2.3621 million tons, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.30% week-on-week, indicating a weak demand environment for steel products [13][14] Natural Gas Market - Russian LNG is entering the Chinese market at prices 20-30% lower than market rates, despite US pressure on Japan and Europe to halt imports of Russian LNG. This influx is contributing to a stable supply environment [14][15] - The average price of natural gas in the US is reported at $4.44 per million British thermal units, down 1.4% week-on-week, while European gas prices are on the rise [14][15] Oilfield Services - The oilfield services sector is expected to maintain its growth due to government policies aimed at ensuring energy security. The capital expenditure of major oil companies is projected to remain high, supporting the oilfield services industry's outlook [16][17] - The global active rig count is reported at 1,800, with a slight decrease in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific regions, while the US shows a week-on-week increase of 5 rigs [16][17]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has seen a decline, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.9 percentage points, with a weekly drop of 5.67% as of November 21, 2025 [2] - Short-term coal consumption is low, leading to an increase in social inventory, but it remains below last year's levels. There is a need to ensure supply while releasing production safely [5][29] - The report anticipates a gradual balance in supply and demand in the fourth quarter, with coal prices expected to rise steadily, targeting 850 CNY/ton [5][29] Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - As of November 21, 2025, the average daily coal sales from monitored enterprises were 7.53 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.2% but a year-on-year decrease of 2.7% [2] - The total coal inventory (including port storage) was 24.61 million tons, up 1.3% week-on-week but down 19% year-on-year [2][6] Price Trends - The price index for thermal coal (Q5500K) was stable at 698 CNY/ton, while the imported thermal coal price index was 944 CNY/ton, also unchanged [3] - The price of coking coal at major ports showed a decline, with the main coking coal price at 1,790 CNY/ton, down 2.2% week-on-week [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing investments in high-dividend thermal coal companies, specifically mentioning China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others [5][29] - Focus on coking coal companies such as Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal, as well as coking companies with improved profits like Jinneng Technology and others [5][29]

Core Viewpoint - Shaanxi Coal Industry reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.71 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 27.22% [1] Financial Performance - Q3 net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.07 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 26.59% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 79.08% [1] - The average price of Yulin pithead thermal coal in Q3 was 626.9 yuan/ton, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.95% [1] Market Dynamics - Recent recovery in coal prices is evident, supported by a decrease in production from Xinjiang and imported coal, alongside increased winter storage demand from downstream power plants due to falling temperatures [1] - Strict safety inspections in Q4 are expected to impact coal production, leading to further anticipated increases in coal prices [1] Strategic Advantages - The company is leveraging its "coal-electricity integration" advantage to respond actively to market changes, enhancing its performance through a complete industrial chain from coal mining, washing, transportation, and sales to power generation [1] - The stability of the company's profitability is expected to improve significantly [1] Valuation and Recommendations - Based on Wind's consensus forecast for 2025 and a 60% dividend payout ratio, the current dividend yield is approximately 4.8% as of November 21 [1] - Considering comparable companies and historical valuations, a target price of 27.56 yuan is set with a 13x PE for 2026, maintaining a "strong buy" rating [1]

Summary of Conference Call on 2026 Electric Coal Long-term Contracts Industry Overview - The conference focuses on the electric coal industry, specifically the long-term contract policies for electric coal in the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions of China [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Price Mechanism Adjustments**: The 2026 electric coal long-term contract price mechanism allows enterprises to negotiate monthly prices based on market indices, with a price range set between 320 to 520 RMB/ton for the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions [2][3]. 2. **Demand Forecast**: It is anticipated that electric coal demand will decline slightly in 2026 due to the impact of renewable energy, leading to reduced operating hours for thermal power generation [1][6]. 3. **Supply Chain Stability**: Coal mines benefiting from supply guarantee policies must fully sign contracts for increased production capacity. Mines that fail to complete the necessary procedures by the end of 2025 will revert to original capacity, affecting contract fulfillment and supply chain stability [1][5]. 4. **Third-party Participation Restrictions**: Shaanxi province does not support third-party companies in electric coal transactions, requiring all contracts to be signed directly between mines to enhance compliance and transaction transparency [1][7]. 5. **Production Capacity Management**: The Shaanxi government plans to manage small and medium-sized coal mines through mergers and upgrades, targeting a production capacity increase to 8 billion tons by 2025 and 8.5 billion tons by 2030 [3][11]. 6. **Impact of Environmental Regulations**: Safety and environmental inspections may hinder the completion of production targets, with Shaanxi likely unable to meet its 8 billion tons target this year [6][12]. 7. **Market Price Trends**: The overall market price for coal is expected to remain stable with limited upward momentum, potentially leading to a downward trend in the coming months [6][20]. 8. **State Control on Overproduction**: The government is strictly controlling overproduction to stabilize market prices, especially in light of recent price declines [12][20]. 9. **Differential Impact on Enterprises**: State-owned enterprises have shown more compliance in completing capacity increase procedures compared to private enterprises, which face challenges in the current market environment [13][16]. 10. **Future Production Outlook**: The Shaanxi government aims for a steady increase in coal production, with a projected annual growth rate of around 2% [11][20]. Additional Important Insights - **Coal Price Adjustments**: There are discussions about adjusting the price range for coal in the three provinces to reflect rising production costs, with suggestions to raise the lower limit by 50 RMB [20][21]. - **Long-term Contract Benefits**: State-owned enterprises are expected to benefit more from long-term contracts compared to private enterprises, especially if coal prices fall below contract prices [16][20]. - **Transition to Renewable Energy**: The dual carbon policy and the shift towards renewable energy sources are expected to gradually reduce coal consumption, although thermal power generation will still play a crucial role [20]. This summary encapsulates the critical discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the electric coal industry and its future outlook.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the coal industry is at the beginning of a new upward cycle, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal stocks on dips [12][13] - The report highlights a tight supply situation, with coal prices stabilizing at a new platform, and emphasizes the high profitability, cash flow, and dividend yield of quality coal companies [12][13] - The report suggests that the coal sector is undervalued and has potential for valuation enhancement, with a focus on high dividend yields and cyclical elasticity [12][13] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of November 22, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 827 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous week [28] - The price for thermal coal from Shanxi at the pit head is 780 RMB/ton, up by 15 RMB/ton week-on-week [28] - International thermal coal prices have seen slight increases, with Newcastle thermal coal at 86.5 USD/ton, up by 1.5 USD/ton [28] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 91.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points week-on-week [46] - Daily coal consumption in 17 inland provinces has increased by 14.7 thousand tons/day, a rise of 4.37% week-on-week [12] - The report notes that the daily coal consumption in 8 coastal provinces has also risen by 7.5 thousand tons/day, up by 4.18% week-on-week [12] Coal Inventory Situation - Coal inventories in coastal provinces increased by 25.5 thousand tons week-on-week, while inland provinces saw an increase of 89.1 thousand tons [12] - The report indicates a decrease in available days of coal supply in both coastal and inland regions [12] Company Performance - The report emphasizes the strong performance of companies like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others, which are expected to maintain stable operations and robust earnings [13] - It also highlights companies with higher elasticity such as Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and others, suggesting they are worth monitoring [13]