Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a significant rise on August 15, with the chemical ETF (516020) increasing by 1.51% [1] - Key stocks in the sector included Lianhong Xinke, which surged over 7%, and Xinjubang and Jinfakeji, both rising over 6% [1] - The basic chemical sector attracted over 7 billion yuan in net inflows, ranking fifth among 30 major sectors [2][3] Group 2 - Recent retail prices for refrigerants like R32 and R227ea have been rising, with R32 expected to average 56,000 to 58,000 yuan per ton from August to October [3] - The chemical ETF (516020) is currently at a low valuation, with a price-to-book ratio of 2.07, indicating potential for long-term investment [3] - Analysts suggest that the "anti-involution" trend in the chemical industry may lead to the elimination of outdated production capacity, improving the competitive landscape and profitability [4] Group 3 - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI segmented chemical industry index, covering various sub-sectors and focusing on large-cap stocks [4] - Investors can also consider chemical ETF linked funds for exposure to the chemical sector [4]

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a significant rise on August 15, with the chemical ETF (516020) increasing by 1.51% [1][2] - Key stocks in the sector included Lianhong Xinke, which surged over 7%, and Xinjubang and Jinfakeji, both rising over 6% [1] - The basic chemical sector attracted over 7 billion yuan in net inflows, ranking fifth among 30 major sectors [2][3] Group 2 - Recent retail prices for mainstream refrigerant R32 have been rising, with expected average prices of 56,000, 57,000, and 58,000 yuan per ton for August to October [3] - The chemical ETF (516020) has a price-to-book ratio of 2.07, indicating a low valuation compared to the past decade [3] - Analysts suggest that the "anti-involution" trend will be a key policy focus, potentially leading to the elimination of excess capacity in the chemical industry [4] Group 3 - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI segmented chemical industry index, covering various sub-sectors and focusing on large-cap stocks [4] - The ETF's portfolio includes significant positions in leading companies like Wanhua Chemical and Yilong Co., allowing investors to capitalize on strong market leaders [4] - Investors can also access the chemical sector through the chemical ETF linked funds (A class 012537/C class 012538) [4]

化工板块今日（8月15日）猛攻，反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）开盘后持续拉升，盘中 场内价格最高涨1.51%，截至发稿，涨1.36%。 成份股方面，改性塑料、石化、涂料油墨等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至发稿，金发科技飙涨超8%， 新凤鸣大涨超6%，桐昆股份涨超5%，三棵树、联泓新科、云天化等涨超3%。 展望后市，开源证券表示，"反内卷"无疑是2025年内或更长期的政策重点，"反内卷"趋势确认。后续伴 随多部门具体政策逐步落地，化工行业部分落后产能有望出清，行业供给端竞争格局有望迎来优化，化 工产品逐步进入有序竞争，盈利水平或也将随之得到修复。 华泰证券表示，近年来行业盈利已处底部，且在政策引导下，供给侧有望加快调整，大宗化工品盈利或 迎改善。中长期而言，伴随欧美高能耗装置退出、亚非拉地区经济增长等需求增量驱动下，出海/出口 成为国内化工行业的重要增长引擎；2025上半年供给端行业资本开支同比增速自2021年初以来首次转 负，供给侧加快调整下2025年下半年或迎复苏起点，成本减压及需求改善的下游环节或率先复苏。 | | | | 分制 参日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 月 厦产 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The AMAC Chemical Fiber Index experienced a decline of 0.57%, closing at 3837.96 points, with a trading volume of 3.384 billion yuan, despite showing positive growth over the past month, three months, and year-to-date [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The AMAC Chemical Fiber Index has increased by 6.53% over the past month [1] - The index has risen by 9.31% over the last three months [1] - Year-to-date, the index has shown a growth of 9.89% [1] Group 2: Index Composition - The top ten holdings of the AMAC Chemical Fiber Index are: Tongkun Co., Ltd. (13.53%), Guangwei Composites (11.72%), Kaisa Biotechnology (11.33%), Huafeng Chemical (10.12%), Hengyi Petrochemical (8.51%), Zhongjian Technology (8.44%), New Fengming (6.32%), Jilin Chemical Fiber (5.23%), Taihe New Materials (4.32%), and Hailide (3.15%) [1] - The market share of the AMAC Chemical Fiber Index is composed of 60.77% from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and 39.23% from the Shanghai Stock Exchange [1] Group 3: Industry Classification - The AMAC Chemical Fiber Index is entirely composed of the raw materials sector, with a 100% allocation [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the petrochemical industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights increasing uncertainty in oil prices due to OPEC's production increases and secondary sanctions on Russia. OPEC plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September and may consider further reductions in the future [5][6]. - Oil prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of $60 to $70 per barrel, with the overall supply-demand balance remaining loose [15]. - The upstream sector is experiencing mixed trends in drilling day rates, while the refining sector shows signs of improvement in profitability due to rising product price spreads [5][22]. - The polyester sector is anticipated to recover, with expectations of rising profitability for leading companies [16]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - As of August 8, 2025, Brent crude futures closed at $66.43 per barrel, down 4.65% from the previous week, while WTI futures closed at $63.88 per barrel, down 5.12% [22]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.029 million barrels to 424 million barrels, which is 6% lower than the five-year average [25]. - The number of U.S. drilling rigs decreased to 539, down 1 from the previous week and down 49 year-on-year [35]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products increased to $16.62 per barrel, up $1.14 from the previous week [58]. - The price spread for ethylene was reported at $239.72 per ton, up $16.47 from the previous week, while the propylene price spread decreased to $113.50 per ton [5][55]. Polyester Sector - The report indicates a decline in PTA profitability, with prices dropping to 4692 RMB per ton, down 3.29% week-on-week [5]. - The overall performance of the polyester industry is considered average, with a focus on demand changes and expectations of gradual improvement as new capacities come online [16]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading polyester companies such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec, due to favorable competitive dynamics [16][18]. - It also suggests monitoring upstream exploration and production companies, particularly offshore service firms, for potential performance improvements [18].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" as the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark [127]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant drop in oil prices, leading to an expansion in the price spread of refining products. As of August 8, 2025, the Brent crude oil average price was $67.67 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 4.90% [2][12]. - Domestic key refining project price spread reached 2378.22 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 42.27 CNY/ton (+1.81%), while the international key refining project price spread was 1097.94 CNY/ton, up by 74.40 CNY/ton (+7.27%) [2][3]. - The report discusses various segments including refining, chemicals, and polyester, indicating a general trend of price declines in chemical products, although some products saw price increases due to supply constraints [2][35][72]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The report notes that the market is currently weighing the impacts of tariff agreements and economic data, which have led to concerns about demand. The U.S. crude oil production reached a record high in May, contributing to oversupply expectations [2][12]. - Domestic refined oil prices are fluctuating, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation fuel averaging 7077.57 CNY/ton, 8173.43 CNY/ton, and 5972.93 CNY/ton respectively [12]. Chemical Sector - The chemical sector is experiencing widespread price declines, with some products seeing price increases due to reduced supply. For instance, the price of acrylonitrile increased slightly due to supply reductions [2][35]. - Polyethylene prices showed minor fluctuations, while the price spread significantly widened, indicating a favorable market condition for producers [41][57]. Polyester Sector - The polyester sector is facing weak cost support due to falling oil prices, leading to price declines in upstream materials like PX, PTA, and MEG. The average price of PTA is currently 4684.29 CNY/ton, with an industry average net profit of -264.65 CNY/ton [81][90]. - The report indicates that the demand for polyester products remains weak, particularly in the downstream market, which is still in a seasonal lull [90][99].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [1]. Core Insights - The cost side supports the price increase of long filament yarns, with domestic and foreign refining project price differentials showing positive trends [2]. - The polyester sector shows varied performance with POY, FDY, and DTY average prices increasing, while profits remain under pressure for FDY and DTY [2]. - The refining sector indicates a decline in domestic gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel prices, reflecting broader market trends [2]. - The chemical sector shows a decrease in PX average price, but the price differential with crude oil has improved [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Refining Projects Price Differential - Domestic refining project price differential is 2548 CNY/ton, up by 186 CNY/ton (8% increase) week-on-week [2]. - Foreign refining project price differential is 1103 CNY/ton, up by 79 CNY/ton (8% increase) week-on-week [2]. 2. Polyester Sector - Average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY are 6725 CNY/ton, 7011 CNY/ton, and 7932 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week increases of 4 CNY, 25 CNY, and 25 CNY [2]. - Weekly average profits for POY, FDY, and DTY are 18 CNY/ton, -58 CNY/ton, and -44 CNY/ton respectively, with significant week-on-week profit increases for POY and FDY [2]. - Inventory levels for POY, FDY, and DTY are 19.7 days, 25.7 days, and 30.0 days respectively, with slight increases week-on-week [2]. 3. Refining Sector - Domestic gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel prices have decreased, reflecting a broader trend in the market [2]. - The average price of gasoline in the US has also seen a decline, indicating a similar trend in the international market [2]. 4. Chemical Sector - PX average price is 838.7 USD/ton, down by 16.1 USD/ton week-on-week, but the price differential with crude oil has improved to 344.7 USD/ton, up by 9.3 USD/ton [2]. - PX operating rate remains stable at 82.4% [2].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The chlor-alkali industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability, driven by a tightening supply of glyphosate and glufosinate, leading to price increases [4][20] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to be a key focus in 2025 and beyond, aiming to optimize the competitive landscape in the chemical industry [26] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The chemical industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.1% this week, with 76.7% of the 545 tracked stocks showing weekly gains [17] - The average price of glyphosate increased to 26,399 CNY/ton, a rise of 0.37% from the previous week, while glufosinate also saw a price increase [21][22] Key Products Tracking - Urea and potassium chloride prices have risen, while phosphorite and phosphates remain stable [52] - The average price of urea reached 1,780 CNY/ton, up 0.62% from the previous week, driven by improved market sentiment [52][54] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include leading chemical companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Hengli Petrochemical [6][26] - Beneficiary stocks include companies like Jiangshan Co., Ltd. and Hebei New Chemical Materials [24][27]

Market Overview - The refining and trading sector increased by 0.44% compared to the previous trading day, with Unification Co. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3633.99, up 0.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11177.78, up 0.64% [1] Stock Performance - Unification Co. (600506) closed at 20.29, with a rise of 2.63% and a trading volume of 139,500 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 280 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include: - Compton (603798) at 12.03, up 1.86% [1] - Tongkun Co. (601233) at 12.35, up 1.40% [1] - Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493) at 9.20, up 1.21% [1] Capital Flow - The refining and trading sector experienced a net outflow of 96.07 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 135 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for key stocks includes: - China Petroleum (601857) with a net inflow of 46.53 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Unification Co. (600506) with a net inflow of 35.02 million yuan [3] - Tongkun Co. (601233) with a net inflow of 18.36 million yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the polyester industry, particularly for polyester filament yarn, with expectations for improved profitability during the peak season [4][6][19]. Core Insights - The profitability of polyester filament yarn has shown signs of improvement since late July, following a period of weak demand due to export tariffs and seasonal factors [6][7]. - The report highlights that the current inventory pressure is primarily concentrated in the downstream textile sector, with downstream fabric inventory at a high of 30.57 days and filament raw material inventory at a low of 9.85 days [14][15]. - The upstream oil sector is experiencing rising oil prices, with Brent crude oil futures closing at $69.67 per barrel, reflecting a 1.8% increase week-on-week [23][24]. - The refining sector is seeing mixed results, with overseas refined oil crack spreads increasing, while olefin price spreads show variability [54][56]. Summary by Sections Polyester Sector - Polyester filament yarn profitability is gradually improving, with price spreads for POY, FDY, and DTY reaching 1211, 1516, and 1200 CNY/ton respectively as of August 1 [7][19]. - The overall operating rate for polyester filament yarn remains around 90%, while downstream textile enterprises are operating at a low of 50.4% [15][19]. Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices have increased, with a week-on-week rise of 1.8%, and WTI prices up by 3.33% [23][24]. - The report notes a decrease in the number of active drilling rigs in the U.S., with a total of 540 rigs as of August 1, down by 2 from the previous week [34]. Refining Sector - The report indicates that the Singapore refining margin for major products has increased to $15.48 per barrel, while domestic refining margins remain at lower levels [54][56]. - The report suggests that refining profitability may improve as economic recovery progresses, despite current low margins [54][56]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as high-quality refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [19].