分析师：郑婷 登记编码：S0730524110001 zhengting@ccnew.com 投资要点： 第1页 / 共12页 河南研究：经济数据跟踪（2025 年 10 月） 电话： 0371-65585629 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10号18楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道 1788 号 T1 座 22 楼 全国经济运行情况：2025 年 10 月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同 比增长 4.9%，社会消费品零售总额同比增长 2.9%，全国固定资产 投资（不含农户）累计同比下降 1.7%，房地产开发投资累计同比 下降 14.7%。总体来看，10 月份"反内卷"治理成效有所显现，高 技术制造业发展支撑经济韧性，但同时主要经济指标均有回落，内 需不足问题持续显现。往后看，主要经济指标回暖仍受到政策效应 退坡、前期需求透支、地产深度调整等系列因素阻力，但财政已通 过提前下达专项资金的方式进行托举，11 月人民日报文章《保持财 政政策取向不变力度不减》也指出"我国财政资源和举债空间仍然 充裕"。因此，预期四季度经济整体仍较具韧性。 河南省经济运行情况：2025 年 10 月份，河南省规模以上工业增加 值同比增 ...

四方新材于2021年3月10日在上交所上市，发行数量为3,090.00万股，发行价格42.88元/股，保荐机 构为中原证券股份有限公司，保荐代表人为战晓峰、白凯。 2024年，四方新材实现营业收入14.12亿元，同比下降28.93%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利 润-1.64亿元，上年为1296.45万元；实现归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润-1.76亿元， 上年为961.13万元；经营活动产生的现金流量净额为1180.28万元，同比下降87.50%。 上市首日，四方新材盘中最高价报61.75元，为该股上市以来最高价。该股目前处于破发状态。 四方新材首次公开发行股票募集资金总额132,499.20万元，扣除发行费用后募集资金净额123,512.30 万元。四方新材于2021年2月25日披露的招股说明书显示，该公司原拟募集资金123,512.30万元，拟用于 装配式混凝土预制构件项目、干拌砂浆项目、物流配送体系升级项目、补充流动资金。 四方新材首次公开发行股票的发行费用总计8,986.90万元，其中，保荐和承销费用7,732.69万元。 中国经济网北京11月25日讯 四方新材(605122.SH)今 ...

Group 1: Copper - The supply-demand imbalance for copper is becoming evident, with the price center expected to rise due to tight copper concentrate supply and surging green demand [1] - Global copper mine grades are declining, and long-term insufficient capital expenditure has limited new mining projects, contributing to a tight copper concentrate market [1] - Demand for copper is supported by investments in electricity, new energy vehicles, and data center construction, driven by global monetary easing and green transition trends [1] - Recommended companies to focus on include Zijin Mining (601899.SH) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH), which have rich resource reserves and clear capacity planning [1] Group 2: Aluminum - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is tight, with domestic capacity capped at 45 million tons and limited new capacity, while overseas production progress is slow [2] - The demand for electrolytic aluminum shows structural resilience, and prices are expected to rise due to rigid supply, low inventory, and cost support [2] - The average price of electrolytic aluminum is projected to be around 22,000 yuan/ton by 2026, with increasing profitability leading companies to raise dividend ratios [2] - Key companies to watch include Yunnan Aluminum (000807.SZ), Mingtai Aluminum (601677.SH), and Shenhuo Group (000933.SZ) [2] Group 3: Precious Metals - The value of gold as an investment is highlighted amid the Fed's policy shift and ongoing global macro uncertainties [3] - Silver, with both industrial and monetary properties, shows stronger price elasticity during liquidity easing cycles [3] - The gold-silver ratio is expected to decline from around 100 in May 2025 to about 80 by November 2025, indicating potential for downward correction [3] - Recommended investment opportunities include Zijin Mining (601899.SH), Shandong Gold (600547.SH), Zhongjin Gold (600489.SH), and Shengda Resources (000603.SZ) [3] Group 4: Superhard Materials - Traditional demand for superhard products is under pressure, leading the industry into a downturn [4] - However, breakthroughs in functional diamond technology are opening new growth opportunities, particularly in high-end chip cooling applications [4] - Companies to focus on include Guoji Precision (002046.SZ), which has made progress in functional diamonds, and Sifangda (300179.SZ), which has large-scale CVD diamond production lines [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongyuan Securities indicates that a series of AI industry catalytic events will occur in 2026, strengthening the leading position of top optical module manufacturers due to their technological, customer, and scale advantages. The current valuation of the communication industry index is below the ten-year average, and the industry maintains a "stronger than the market" investment rating based on performance growth expectations and valuation levels [1][2]. Summary by Sections Review of 2025 - In early 2025, the DeepSeek large model boosted market sentiment, and the three major operators completed the deployment of DeepSeek computing power private networks, enhancing their cloud service capabilities. Domestic cloud manufacturers provided positive capital expenditure guidance, leading to an increase in industry valuations. However, from February to April, the industry index experienced significant fluctuations due to concerns over U.S. tariff policies and future demand for optical modules. By mid-April, the easing of tariff policies and validation of AI computing power demand led to a gradual recovery in the industry index and valuations. In late July, North American cloud manufacturers raised their capital expenditure guidance, further catalyzing the industry. Since September, leading manufacturers faced short-term performance fatigue due to product iterations and customer structure adjustments, raising concerns about unclear downstream business models [2]. Outlook for 2026 - A series of AI industry catalytic events are expected, including the mass production of NVIDIA's next-generation Rubin GPU, the release of Google's new large model Gemini, and clear capital expenditure guidance from cloud manufacturers. AI smartphones equipped with large models are anticipated to become personalized smart assistants, potentially driving the next wave of smartphone upgrades. The development of key 6G technologies by telecom operators is expected to accelerate revenue growth from AI computing power. The report is optimistic about the high industry prosperity and strong growth potential of optical modules, optical devices, optical chips, and the increasing penetration of AI smartphones, as well as the stable operations of quality dividend assets in telecom operators [3][4]. Capital Expenditure Outlook for Leading Cloud Manufacturers - The demand for 800G is increasing, and the industry is transitioning from 800G to 1.6T technology. Leading optical module manufacturers are expected to further highlight their advantages due to technological leadership, stable customer relationships, and scalable delivery capabilities. The development of AI is driving the construction of large data centers, benefiting optical device manufacturers. The long R&D and expansion cycles for optical chips create high barriers in technology, talent, customer validation, and capital, leading to a persistent supply-demand gap for certain optical chips. The increasing demand for domestic controllable solutions is expected to translate into performance for domestic computing power. Recommended companies to watch include: NewEase, Huagong Technology, Guangxun Technology, Yuanjie Technology, Shijia Photon, and Taicheng Light [4]. AI Smartphones and Market Trends - Generative AI smartphones are set to provide users with new interactive experiences, multimodal content generation capabilities, personalized services, and innovative application ecosystems. The continuous improvement of edge AI computing power and large model capabilities is expected to further increase the market penetration of AI smartphones. Innovations and upgrades in AI smartphones are likely to lead to higher average selling prices and improved profit margins. The growth in edge AI shipments will drive sustained growth in core product lines of consumer electronics components [5]. Telecom Operators' Performance - The three major telecom operators are considered quality dividend assets with high dividend yield potential, offering cash dividends twice a year. The quality of traditional business revenue is improving, and a decrease in capital expenditure is expected to lower future depreciation and amortization costs, maintaining stable operations. Additionally, telecom operators are likely to leverage their advantages in data centers, big data, and network infrastructure to reconstruct business models with the help of AI. Investment recommendations include focusing on the optical module, optical device, and optical chip sectors, as well as AI smartphone and telecom operator sectors [6].

Market Overview - On November 24, the A-share market experienced a slight upward trend after an initial decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index finding support around 3816 points[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3836.77 points, up 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.37% to 12585.08 points[7] - Total trading volume for both markets was 17,406 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading day but above the three-year average[3] Sector Performance - Industries such as shipbuilding, cultural media, aerospace, and software development showed strong performance, while energy metals, insurance, and fertilizer sectors lagged[3] - Over 80% of stocks in the two markets rose, with significant inflows into shipbuilding, aerospace, and internet services[7] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 15.77 times and 46.14 times, respectively, indicating they are above the median levels of the past three years[3] - The current market conditions suggest a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments[3] Future Outlook - The market is expected to consolidate around the 4000-point level, with a continued rebalancing of market styles between cyclical and technology sectors[3] - Investors are advised to maintain reasonable positions and avoid excessive trading, while closely monitoring macroeconomic data and policy changes[3] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected overseas economic downturns, domestic policy changes, and macroeconomic disturbances that could impact the recovery process[4]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing recovery in various industries, particularly in technology and consumption sectors, with a focus on the resilience of growth in the face of macroeconomic challenges [5][9][17] - The investment strategy for 2026 highlights a shift from extreme growth to balanced allocation, with specific attention to sectors like artificial intelligence, traditional industries benefiting from AI integration, and consumer sectors poised for recovery [9][28] Domestic Market Performance - The A-share market has shown volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,834.89, down 2.45%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 12,538.07, down 3.41% [3][10] - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 16.14 and 47.93, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [10][11] International Market Performance - Major international indices such as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 have experienced slight declines, with the Dow down 0.67% and the S&P 500 down 0.45% [4] Industry Strategies - The report outlines a new recovery cycle in the machinery sector, with a notable 30.12% increase in the CITIC Machinery Index, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 14.11 percentage points [14][15] - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its upward trend, driven by domestic demand and technological advancements, with a focus on AI and autonomous driving technologies [17][20] Key Data Updates - The lithium battery sector has shown significant growth, with a 12.81% increase in revenue and a 28.38% increase in net profit in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating strong demand in both power and energy storage batteries [28][29] - The agricultural sector has faced challenges, with pig prices declining by 11.46% month-on-month in October 2025, reflecting supply and demand dynamics [30] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with strong recovery potential, such as food and beverage, pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods, while also considering the impact of government policies aimed at stabilizing growth [25][27] - Specific investment opportunities are highlighted in the AI sector, particularly in companies involved in AI hardware and software, as well as those in the semiconductor supply chain [21][22]

National Economic Data - From January to October 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached CNY 18,649 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%[12] - Tax revenue accounted for CNY 15,336 billion, growing by 1.7% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue fell by 3.1% to CNY 33,126 billion[12] - General public budget expenditure totaled CNY 22,582 billion, up 2% year-on-year, with central government expenditure increasing by 6.3% to CNY 34,727 billion[12] Government Fund Budget - Government fund budget revenue for the same period was CNY 34,473 billion, down 2.8% year-on-year[14] - Expenditure from the government fund budget surged by 15.4% to CNY 80,892 billion[14] Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged at 3.0% for 1-year loans and 3.5% for loans over 5 years as of November 20, 2025[22] - The average interest rate for the 7-day reverse repurchase agreement stood at 1.4%[47] Energy Consumption - In October 2025, total electricity consumption reached 857.2 billion kWh, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.4%[26] - Cumulative electricity consumption from January to October was 86,246 billion kWh, up 5.1% year-on-year[27] Market Performance - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 5.13% this week, while the Hang Seng Index dropped by 5.09%[66] - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 3.90%, reflecting a broader market downturn[69] Sector Performance - The banking sector showed the least decline at -0.89%, while the electric equipment sector faced the largest drop at -10.54%[75] - The basic chemical sector also experienced significant losses, declining by 7.47%[75] Financing and Debt Issuance - As of November 21, 2025, cumulative issuance of government bonds increased by 19% compared to the same period in 2024, while local government bonds rose by 27%[54] - Corporate bonds saw a significant decline of 60% year-on-year in issuance[54] Institutional Fund Flow - This week, institutional funds saw a net outflow from the medical biology sector amounting to CNY 32.15 billion, while the electronic sector experienced a net outflow of CNY 50.32 billion[78] - The banking sector was the only one to see a net inflow of CNY 0.6 billion[78]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責，對其準確 性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或 因倚賴該等內容而引致之任何損失承擔任何責任。 Central China Securities Co., Ltd. （2002年於中華人民共和國河南省成立的股份有限公司，中文公司名稱為「中原証券股份有限公司」， 在香港以「中州証券」名義開展業務） （股份代號：01375） 於本公告日期，本公司董事為張秋雲女士、李文強先生、馮若凡先生、唐進先生及田聖春先 生，陳志勇先生*、曾崧先生*及賀俊先生*。 * 本公司獨立非執行董事 证券代码：601375 证券简称：中原证券 公告编号：2025-034 中原证券股份有限公司 海外監管公告 本公告乃由中原證券股份有限公司（「本公司」）根據香港聯合交易所有限公司 證券上市規則第13.10B條作出。 茲載列本公司於上海證券交易所網站發佈之《中原證券股份有限公司關於召開 2025年第三季度業績說明會的公告》，僅供參閱。 承董事會命 中原證券股份有限公司 董事長 張秋雲 中國，河南 2025年11月21日 关于召开 2 ...

证券代码：601375 证券简称：中原证券 公告编号：2025-034 中原证券股份有限公司 关于召开 2025 年第三季度业绩说明会的公告 中原证券股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）董事会及全体董事保证本公 告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、 准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 会议召开时间：2025 年 12 月 1 日（星期一）14:00-15:00 二、说明会召开的时间、地点 （一）会议召开时间：2025 年 12 月 1 日（星期一）14:00-15:00 （二）会议召开地点：上证路演中心 （三）会议召开方式：上证路演中心网络互动 会 议 召 开 地 点 ： 上 海 证 券 交 易 所 上 证 路 演 中 心 （ 网 址 ： https://roadshow.sseinfo.com/） 会议召开方式：上证路演中心网络互动 欢迎有意向参加本次说明会的投资者于 2025 年 11 月 24 日（星期一）至 11 月 28 日（星期五）16:00 前登录上证路演中心网站首页点击"提问预征集" 栏目或通过公司投资者关系邮箱（investor@ccnew.com）进 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhongyuan Securities maintains a "market perform" investment rating for the basic chemical industry, suggesting investment opportunities in sectors benefiting from supply-side improvements and resource attributes under the backdrop of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the basic chemical industry achieved total revenue of 19,924.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.69%, and a net profit of 1,170.62 billion yuan, up 7.58% year-on-year, indicating a continued recovery in industry profitability [2] - All 18 sub-industries within the basic chemical sector reported year-on-year revenue and profit growth, with significant differentiation among them, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and demand recovery [3] Group 2: Profitability Trends - The basic chemical industry's gross margin and net margin have shown signs of recovery since early 2024, with gross margin at 17.69% and net margin at 6.17% in the first three quarters of 2025, both reflecting slight year-on-year increases [4] - Sub-industries such as fluorine chemicals, potash fertilizers, synthetic resins, chlor-alkali, and compound fertilizers have experienced notable improvements in profitability [4] Group 3: Financial Indicators - The basic chemical industry maintains a stable financial position, with a slight decrease in the asset-liability ratio, improved operating cash flow, and a decline in construction projects [5] - Inventory turnover days have increased slightly year-on-year, indicating changes in inventory management [5] Group 4: Regional Performance - Chemical enterprises in Henan province underperformed compared to the overall industry, with revenues of 564.21 billion yuan and 188.98 billion yuan in the first three quarters and third quarter respectively, reflecting declines of 2.21% and 1.03% year-on-year [6] - Net profits for Henan's chemical companies also fell significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 29.33% and 26.70% for the respective periods [6]