Core Insights - The rising gold prices have sparked a surge in demand for bank safe deposit boxes, leading to a situation where they are in high demand but low supply [1][4][12] - Many banks in Beijing report that all safe deposit boxes are currently rented out, with waiting lists exceeding 100 customers at some locations [2][10] - The demand for safe deposit boxes is driven by increased interest in gold investments, as geopolitical risks continue to elevate the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [4][12] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for safe deposit boxes has significantly increased, with banks reporting a notable rise in inquiries since last year [4][12] - Banks are struggling to keep up with the demand, as the supply of safe deposit boxes has not increased in tandem, leading to a shortage [6][15] - Some banks have ceased offering safe deposit box services altogether due to high maintenance costs and low profitability [15][16] Pricing and Features - Different banks offer various sizes and pricing structures for safe deposit boxes, with significant variations in rental fees [3][11] - For example, at China Merchants Bank, the smallest box has a monthly rental fee of 50 yuan, while larger boxes can cost up to 42,000 yuan annually [11] - Postal Savings Bank offers a fully automated safe deposit box with advanced security features, including 24-hour monitoring and multiple verification methods for access [5][13] Market Trends - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and expectations of continued low interest rates are expected to sustain the demand for gold and, consequently, safe deposit boxes [4][12] - Investors are increasingly looking for secure storage options for their gold investments, as concerns about home security grow [4][12] - Some banks are innovating their services, such as offering promotional deals for customers purchasing gold products, to attract more clients [16]

Core Viewpoint - Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is currently the only viable solution for aviation decarbonization, with the HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids) route using Used Cooking Oil (UCO) being the first to commercialize [2] Group 1: SAF Supply and Demand - The demand for SAF is expected to rise significantly, with the EU's ReFuel EU Aviation and the UK's SAF directive set to take effect in 2025, mandating SAF blending ratios of at least 2% by 2025, increasing to 70% by 2050 [2] - The EU's SAF demand is projected to reach 105 million tons in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 15% from 2025 to 2050 [2] - In China, the SAF pilot program is set to begin in 2024, with a potential demand of 786 million tons per year if a 20% blending ratio is achieved [3] Group 2: UCO Supply and Demand - China is the largest supplier of waste cooking oil, with a theoretical annual production of 12 million tons, but only 4 million tons are currently utilized [3] - The demand for UCO is expected to increase significantly due to the transition to SAF, with projections indicating that by 2030, UCO demand could reach approximately 233 million tons in the EU alone [3] - In China, the demand for UCO is expected to exceed the current utilization capacity, driven by the transition to SAF production [3] Group 3: UCO Value Enhancement - The price of UCO in China is currently around 7,150 RMB per ton, while bio-jet fuel prices range from 15,000 to 20,000 RMB per ton [4] - The potential price elasticity for UCO could increase by 19% to 63% based on the conversion rates to SAF and processing costs [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing anti-involution in the domestic polyester chain, with the Egyptian filament project opening new growth opportunities for the company in the long term [1] - By the end of December 2025, major domestic polyester filament manufacturers plan to implement self-discipline production cuts to maintain prices, with a planned reduction of 10% for POY and 15% for FDY, and further reductions expected around the Chinese New Year [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders faced pressure in the third quarter, primarily due to PTA profitability impacts [1] Group 2 - The large refining industry continues to push for anti-involution, which is expected to lead to an upward trend in the polyester chain's prosperity [1] - The Egyptian filament project plans to add 360 acres of land for the construction of manufacturing plants for POY, FDY, and DTY, aiming for an annual production capacity of 360,000 tons of functional polyester fibers [1] - The project will also involve leasing a terminal at a nearby port for tank area construction, which will help the company avoid trade barriers and respond to tariffs and trade wars, enhancing its international influence and market competitiveness [1] Group 3 - With the ongoing anti-involution in the polyester chain, the company's profitability is expected to improve in the future [1] - The company is viewed positively for its future growth potential, with an initial coverage rating of "Buy" assigned [1]

Core Insights - The release of the "Industrial Internet and Artificial Intelligence Integration Empowerment Action Plan" is expected to significantly benefit Dongtu Technology [1] Group 1: Policy Alignment - The action plan emphasizes accelerating the intelligent upgrade of industrial networks and promoting the transformation of key industries, which aligns with the company's core products such as TSN chips and AUTBUS bus chips [1] - The policy highlights the need to enhance the intelligence level of industrial internet platforms, which matches the company's self-developed industrial operating system and control systems, providing foundational technical support for the integration of industrial internet and artificial intelligence [1] Group 2: Market Demand and Growth Potential - The action plan sets clear development goals and quantitative indicators for 2026-2028, likely leading to a surge in market demand for industrial networks and control systems, thus providing a certain growth space for the company's core business [1] - The company has been dedicated to researching foundational technologies for the industrial internet and is focused on building an industrial intelligent neural network platform, positioning it well to benefit from the action plan [1] Group 3: Financial Projections - The company maintains its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 86 million, 152 million, and 202 million yuan respectively, and continues to hold a "buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - The release of the "Industrial Internet and Artificial Intelligence Integration Empowerment Action Plan" is expected to significantly benefit Dongtu Technology, aligning with the company's business layout and core product offerings [1] Group 1: Policy Alignment - The policy emphasizes accelerating the intelligent upgrade of industrial networks and requires the construction of new industrial networks that meet the high throughput, low latency, high reliability, and low jitter communication needs for AI applications, which matches the technical positioning of the company's TSN chips and AUTBUS bus chips [1] - The policy also highlights the need to enhance the intelligence level of industrial internet platforms and strengthen element connectivity and intelligent analysis capabilities, which aligns with the company's self-developed industrial operating system and control systems, providing foundational technical support for the integration of industrial internet and artificial intelligence [1] Group 2: Market Demand and Growth Potential - The Action Plan outlines core development goals and quantitative indicators for 2026-2028, which are expected to directly drive market demand in core sectors such as industrial networks and control systems, providing a clear growth space for the company's core business [1] - The company has long been committed to researching foundational technologies for the industrial internet and focuses on building an industrial intelligent neural network platform, positioning it to fully benefit from the release of the Action Plan [1] Group 3: Financial Projections - The profit forecast for the company is maintained at 86 million, 152 million, and 202 million yuan for the years 2025-2027, respectively, with a "buy" rating sustained [1]

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities report indicates that Cangge Mining's three main product prices are on the rise, suggesting potential earnings elasticity [1] Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate is projected at 150,000 yuan per ton, with an expected profit contribution of 1.3 billion yuan in 2026, indicating significant growth potential [1] Potassium - The company guides for a stable sales volume of 1.04 million tons of potassium chloride in 2026, while accelerating the progress of the 1 million ton capacity in Laos [1] - Price expectations for 2026 are maintained at over 3,000 yuan per ton, with production costs at 970 yuan per ton, leading to an anticipated profit contribution of 1.5 billion yuan [1] Copper - Copper prices are expected to rise in Q4, with new capacity being released, resulting in significant earnings elasticity for 2026 [1] Profit Forecast - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards from 3.82 billion/5.73 billion/8.64 billion yuan to 3.88 billion/7.46 billion/9 billion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 50%/92%/21% [1] - Corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected at 35x/18x/15x, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

东吴证券研报指出，潮宏基是我国年轻时尚的黄金珠宝品牌，公司战略清晰，在持续扩展门店网络、优 化渠道结构的同时，正加快国际化布局步伐。作为以时尚设计见长的珠宝品牌，其"国潮"产品系列精准 契合年轻消费群体对个性化、文化内涵首饰的需求，品牌差异化优势明确。考虑到公司渠道结构持续改 善，该行上调公司2025-2027年归母净利润预测从4.3/6.6/7.9亿元至4.8/6.7/8.1亿元，同比分别 +147%/+41%/+20%，2025-2027年PE对应最新收盘价分别为23/17/14倍，维持"买入"评级。 ...

2026年1月6日，复旦大学经济学院举办了"南土国际金融政策圆桌会第9期"，同时也是"如何看待当前宏 观金融形势系列"的第二场活动。本次圆桌会聚焦"当前贸易顺差问题"，与会学者围绕贸易结构转型、 全球价值链把控以及国内外需失衡等多重因素，系统分析了中国贸易顺差创历史新高的深层原因，并深 入探讨了中国在应对外部保护主义挑战、化解国内内卷式竞争及提升外汇与金融安全稳定性等方面面临 的现实制约及可行战略选择。 东吴证券首席经济学家芦哲指出，2025年前11个月，中国贸易顺差规模创历史新高，首次突破万亿美元 大关。虽然贸易顺差总量创历史新高，但其占GDP比重在全世界仍属中等水平。同时，顺差增长背后也 伴随着市场结构的深刻调整。芦哲认为，与2018年相比，中国贸易顺差的市场结构已发生深刻变化：美 欧市场占比明显下降，而"一带一路"沿线国家和新兴市场的重要性显著提升。这种多元化的市场布局， 为中国应对外部经贸摩擦提供了更稳健的战略回旋空间。 探究其中的原因，芦哲进一步分析认为，顺差结构的改善根植于国内产业与产品体系的深度升级。随着 加工贸易占比显著下降，技术密集型且具备较强定价权的产品已成为出口支柱。这不仅提升了中国在全 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Dongwu Securities has given a "buy" rating to Xinfengming (603225.SH) based on several positive indicators for the company and the industry [1] - The company's profitability is expected to improve significantly year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - The refining and chemical industry is experiencing a reduction in internal competition, which is likely to lead to an upward trend in the polyester chain's market conditions [1] - The company plans to invest $280 million in a long filament project in Egypt [1] Group 2 - There are challenges faced by the solar energy industry, including rising costs of raw materials like silver, leading to difficult decision-making for companies [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Xianle Health is a leading CDMO enterprise in the health supplement sector, focusing on the research and manufacturing of health and functional foods [1] - The company has demonstrated a stable performance with a projected CAGR of 18% for both revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company from 2012 to 2024, leading the industry [1] - Xianle Health possesses multiple R&D centers and has superior innovation and insight capabilities, allowing it to quickly capture market trends and efficiently bring products to market [1] Group 2 - The company has a comprehensive production line and a flexible supply system, enabling rapid product launch and feedback to key clients [1] - It is innovating with new dosage forms (such as burst beads and Xueyou yogurt®) and expanding into six high-potential categories, including anti-aging, probiotics, beauty and health, cardiovascular metabolism, immune enhancement, and sports nutrition [1] - Given the significant overseas market potential and the company's competitive advantages in R&D and supply chain, the current valuation is considered cost-effective, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]