信任命 2025 年 12 月 28 日 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 quozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 quozy@swsresearch.com 会属价格强势突破,看好春季行情 金属&新材料行业周报 20251222-20251226 本期投资提示: 我研究报 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 波段人分出品 申万宏源研究微信服务号 o 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 1.88%，深证成指上涨 3.53%，沪深 300 上涨 1.95%，有色金属（申 万) 指数上涨 6.43%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 4.48 个百分点。2）分子板块看，环比上周，贵金属上涨 4.06%，铝上涨 6.33%， 能源金属上涨 6.66%，小金属上涨 6.16%，铜上涨 ...

行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 2025 年 12 月 28 日 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 金属价格强势突破，看好春季行情 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20251222-20251226 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 1.88%，深证成指上涨 3.53%，沪深 300 上涨 1.95%，有色金属（申 万）指数上涨 6.43%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 4.48 个百分点。2）分子板块看，环比上周，贵金属上 ...

Core Insights - The Sanya Central Business District (CBD) has seen a significant increase in registered enterprises, with 112 new companies established, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.4% since the launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port's customs operations [2][3] - The establishment of the Zijin International Operations Headquarters is expected to serve as a key hub for linking global resources, enhancing the area's attractiveness for international investment [3] - The Sanya CBD is experiencing a surge in various industries, including cultural and artistic sectors, with over 31 enterprises in the cultural relics and arts industry and a total transaction volume exceeding 300 million yuan from large auctions [4][5] Business Environment - The Sanya CBD has introduced a "no-fee zone" service model for business registration, which covers the costs of business setup, allowing companies to operate with minimal initial expenses [6] - The area has successfully attracted numerous "three categories of 500 strong" enterprises, with a total of over 9,500 companies registered, including 107 from the top 500 categories [7] Project Development - Key projects in the Sanya CBD are progressing rapidly, with significant construction activities underway, including the Sanya International Cultural Exchange Center and the Sanya River Estuary Channel project, which aims to improve transportation efficiency [9][10] - The Sanya CBD is poised to leverage its policy advantages and innovative approaches to continue its development trajectory within the Hainan Free Trade Port framework [10]

Core Insights - The article highlights the transformation of Zijin Mining from a local enterprise to a global mining giant, emphasizing its commitment to sustainable and intelligent mining practices [2][14]. Group 1: Company Transformation and Strategy - Zijin Mining has evolved from a county-level enterprise to a global mining leader, showcasing a shift from traditional resource extraction to a focus on green, intelligent, and sustainable development [2]. - The company has implemented a "resource-first" strategy, achieving a gold resource volume of nearly 4,000 tons by 2024, ranking sixth globally in both gold resource volume and production [4]. - Zijin Mining's innovative management model, "Five Rings of Ore Flow Integration," enhances the utilization of low-grade gold resources, resulting in an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) that is better than 80% of global peers [4][5]. Group 2: Global Expansion and Market Position - Since its international expansion began in 2005, Zijin Mining has established significant mining investments in 17 countries, with overseas gold resources and profits surpassing domestic figures [6]. - The company aims to become a "first-class international mining group" by 2028, targeting a gold production goal of 110 tons [6][10]. Group 3: ESG Commitment and Achievements - Zijin Mining integrates ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) principles into its corporate strategy, establishing a governance structure that ensures ESG objectives are met at all levels [8][9]. - The company has achieved a 34.9% reduction in carbon emissions per unit of industrial added value compared to 2020, with a water resource recycling rate of 93.46% [10][11]. - Zijin Mining's ESG practices have received global recognition, with high ratings from various ESG assessment organizations, placing it in the top 1.7% of its industry [11]. Group 4: Technological Innovation and Sustainability - The company has made significant investments in clean energy, with a total installed capacity of 767 MW and a renewable energy generation of 565 GWh, marking a 48% year-on-year increase [10]. - Zijin Mining has developed smart mining technologies, including autonomous vehicles and intelligent scheduling systems, which enhance operational efficiency and set new industry standards [10][15]. Group 5: Community Engagement and Local Impact - The company actively participates in community development, employing nearly 4,000 local workers and engaging in various social responsibility projects [10][13]. - In its international projects, Zijin Mining respects local cultures and promotes sustainable development, achieving a local employment rate of 96% in overseas operations [13][14].

来源：市场资讯 （来源：宏赫臻财） 紫金黄金国际上市首日大涨，总市值逾3000亿港元，超过山东黄金，成为国内"黄金第一股"。按照黄金 产量，坐拥八大"金山"的紫金黄金国际，在全球排第十一名，由于其增长远超过同行，2025年有望进入 前十。 栥本江湖风云变幻，创业板龙头宁德时代的市值一度超过贵州茅台，如今，紫金矿业凭借子公司紫金黄 金国际挂牌港股，紫金系4家上市公司的总市值也轻易破万亿元，彰显黄金作为避险资产的神力。 来源：新财富杂志（ID：xcfplus） 作者：鲍有斌 9月30日，紫金黄金国际（02259.HK）登陆港交所主板，股价一度涨超66%，总市值逾3000亿港元，超 过山东黄金，成为国内"黄金第一股"。 近年，地缘政治格局变动频繁，各国央行持续吸储黄金，推动作为避险资产的黄金价格大涨，其最新价 格超过3800美元/盎司，黄金开采商的业绩也大幅提升，紫金矿业（601899/02899.HK）旗下的紫金黄金 国际便是其一。 紫金黄金国际严格控制黄金营运成本，毛利率从2023年的26.2%增加至2024年的37.9%，2025年上半年 提升到46.5%，半年净利润已超过2024年全年。其利润接连翻倍，在紫 ...

Market Analysis - The A-share market continues to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving an eight-day winning streak and total market turnover exceeding 2 trillion yuan, indicating increased market activity [3][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3963.68 points, up 0.10%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.54% to 13603.89 points, marking a six-day winning streak [4] - The overall market turnover reached 2.18 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 12.2% from the previous trading day, reflecting heightened liquidity [4][6] Industry Trends - The market is led by the non-ferrous metals sector, with notable performances from companies like Jiangxi Copper and Zijin Mining, which reached historical highs [7] - The launch of the National Venture Capital Guidance Fund aims to attract social capital into key sectors such as integrated circuits, quantum technology, and aerospace, enhancing market enthusiasm for emerging industries [7] - The hard technology sector experienced a pullback, indicating a potential shift in market focus as funds rotate towards sectors with better growth prospects [9] Bond Market - The bond market saw a broad increase, with long-term contracts showing significant gains; the 30-year main contract rose by 0.36% to close at 112.96 yuan [12] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net injection of 368 billion yuan, maintaining a loose monetary environment despite a reduction in the scale of net injections compared to previous days [12] Commodity Market - The commodity index increased, with notable rebounds in aluminum and lithium carbonate prices, reflecting strong market demand and supply constraints [12][16] - The lithium carbonate futures price surpassed 130,520 yuan per ton, reaching a new high for the year, driven by low inventory levels and tight supply expectations [16] Trading Hotspots - Key investment themes include precious metals, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, AI applications, and consumer sectors, driven by favorable policies and market dynamics [13][15] - The commercial aerospace sector is gaining traction due to government support and the establishment of new companies, while AI applications are accelerating with advancements from major tech firms [13][15]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is leading the market with a net inflow of 14.7 billion yuan, indicating strong investor confidence and interest in this sector [1][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal ETF, Huabao (159876), saw a peak increase of 4.19% during the day, ultimately closing with a 3.77% rise, ranking seventh in the overall market ETF performance [1][11]. - The Huabao ETF has attracted a total of 56.11 million yuan in inflows over the past two days, reflecting positive sentiment towards the non-ferrous metal sector [1][11]. - The index tracked by the Huabao ETF has increased by 93.04% since its low on April 8, significantly outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index (29.75%) and the CSI 300 (28.00%) [3][14]. Group 2: Key Stocks and Their Performance - Key stocks in the sector, such as Yongxing Materials, Guocheng Mining, and Jiangxi Copper, reached their daily limit up, while Zhongkuang Resources and China Aluminum rose over 8% [3][13]. - Major stocks like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum hit historical highs, indicating strong performance across the sector [3][13]. Group 3: Market Drivers - The recent surge in non-ferrous metals is attributed to several factors: increased geopolitical uncertainty leading to higher demand for safe-haven assets like gold, a weakening dollar encouraging investment in physical assets, rising demand due to AI development and global energy transition, and ongoing supply constraints in copper and other metals [5][17]. - Analysts predict that non-ferrous metals will be at the forefront of market trends in 2026, with gold prices potentially challenging the $5,000 per ounce mark due to central bank purchases [6][17]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - A diversified investment approach through the Huabao ETF and its associated funds is recommended to capture the overall sector performance while mitigating risks associated with individual metal investments [18].

Group 1: Market Overview - The three major indices continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index recording an 8-day winning streak, suggesting a potential return to 4000 points by year-end. The total trading volume reached 2.18 trillion yuan, a new high for December [1][27]. Group 2: Metal Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector led the market, with the Non-ferrous ETF Huabao (159876) surging by 3.77%, marking a new high since its listing. The sector has seen a nearly 94% increase year-to-date, making it one of the standout sectors [2][5][27]. - The lithium battery supply chain experienced a significant rise, with the main contract for lithium carbonate breaking through 130,000 yuan per ton, reaching a new high since November 2023. The chemical ETF (516020) also saw a price increase of over 2% [3][28]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - Institutions remain optimistic about the non-ferrous metal sector, with China International Capital Corporation (CICC) predicting that non-ferrous and precious metals will be part of the "first tier" of upward trends in 2026 [2][7]. - Analysts believe that the current market rally is supported by improved fundamentals, liquidity, and a favorable macroeconomic environment, with the non-ferrous metal sector being in a "golden era" [7][35]. Group 4: Aerospace and Military Sector - The commercial aerospace sector remains active, with the successful launch of 17 low-orbit satellites using the Long March 8 rocket, contributing to the rise of the General Aviation ETF (159231) and Military Industry ETF (512810), both gaining over 1% [4][29]. - The Military Industry ETF Huabao (512810) reached a new high, with a weekly increase of 6.05%, significantly outperforming the market [11][39]. Group 5: Brokerage Sector Performance - The brokerage sector showed signs of activity, with the top brokerage ETF (512000) rising by 1.89% at one point during the day, although it only closed up 0.86%. The sector has lagged behind the market, with a year-to-date increase of only 3.96% [18][20][30]. - Analysts suggest that the brokerage sector is entering a new growth cycle, driven by factors such as increased market activity and opportunities in direct financing for technology enterprises [22][23].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market in 2025 has experienced an unprecedented surge, with international gold prices rising from $2,600 per ounce at the beginning of the year to $4,500 per ounce by December, marking an increase of over 70% [2][4]. Price Surge - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also seen significant increases, with prices per gram rising from around 800 yuan to over 1,400 yuan, and some high-end products exceeding 2,000 yuan per gram [2]. - The gold price has shown a remarkable increase of nearly 72% within a year, leading to a consumer rush driven by the mentality of "buying on the rise" [2]. Historical Context - The last time gold experienced such a dramatic annual increase was in the 1970s, but the current market dynamics are influenced by different factors, including geopolitical uncertainties and a weakening dollar [4]. - The World Gold Council attributes the strong performance of gold in 2025 to a combination of geopolitical and economic uncertainties, a weaker dollar, and the momentum of rising gold prices [4]. Consumer Behavior - The low-interest-rate environment has led to a shift in consumer behavior, with younger generations adopting new investment strategies, such as the "new three gold" model, which includes gold ETFs [5]. - There is a growing trend towards smaller gold items and high-premium ancient gold products, reflecting a change in consumer preferences [6]. Industry Dynamics - The continuous rise in gold prices has created challenges for downstream retail businesses, leading to high inventory levels and increased operational pressures [8]. - Upstream mining companies have benefited from the price surge, with major firms reporting significant profit increases, prompting them to expand resource acquisitions through mergers and acquisitions [7]. Retail Challenges - Retailers are facing multiple pressures, including high inventory levels and the need to close down franchise stores, as seen with major brands like Chow Tai Fook [8]. - Banks are also adjusting their gold investment thresholds in response to market risks, raising minimum investment amounts for gold accumulation plans [9]. Investment Risks - The surge in gold prices has led to risky investment behaviors, such as using consumer loans to purchase gold, which poses significant risks to investors [10]. - The phenomenon of bidding on judicial auction platforms for gold bars has created both opportunities and risks, with some investors experiencing significant losses due to impulsive bidding [10].

Group 1: Market Performance - The industrial metal sector increased by 4.88% compared to the previous trading day, with Guocheng Mining leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3963.68, up 0.1%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13603.89, up 0.54% [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Guocheng Mining (000688) closed at 29.13, up 10.01%, with a trading volume of 420,400 shares and a transaction value of 1.198 billion yuan [1] - Jiangxi Copper (600362) closed at 48.31, up 10.00%, with a trading volume of 1,004,200 shares and a transaction value of 4.738 billion yuan [1] - Jincheng Mining (603979) closed at 81.50, up 8.55%, with a trading volume of 114,300 shares and a transaction value of 915 million yuan [1] - China Aluminum (601600) closed at 11.84, up 8.03%, with a trading volume of 4,736,300 shares and a transaction value of 5.436 billion yuan [1] Group 3: Capital Flow Analysis - The industrial metal sector saw a net inflow of 3.358 billion yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 2.312 billion yuan [2] - Major stocks like Jiangxi Copper and Jincheng Mining had significant net inflows from main funds, indicating strong institutional interest [3] - Retail investors showed a tendency to withdraw from the sector, as evidenced by the net outflows recorded [2][3]