Group 1 - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing a dual increase in supply and demand, with weekly apparent demand reaching a new high and inventory days dropping to around 35 days, driven by strong demand from energy storage and power batteries [1] - Market sentiment is supported by seasonal demand, but there may be a seasonal decline in demand growth in Q4, increasing price volatility risks [1] - Long-term lithium mine capacity is on the rise, which will limit the upward space for lithium prices, while the resilience of demand beyond seasonal trends will be a key factor affecting price movements [1] Group 2 - Since 2025, the midstream industry chain of new energy vehicles is showing signs of price stabilization and improved supply-demand structure, indicating a potential new upward cycle [2] - The overall demand for lithium batteries is rapidly increasing, with a projected 30% year-on-year growth in net profit for the lithium battery industry chain in the first half of 2025, reversing the downward trend of the past two years [2] - The ongoing "anti-involution" trend is expected to accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity, benefiting high-quality production capacities with technological and cost advantages [2] Group 3 - As of November 7, 2025, the Guozheng New Energy Vehicle Battery Index has risen by 2.57%, with the Battery ETF (159755) increasing by 2.63%, marking a three-day consecutive rise [3] - Over the past two weeks, the Battery ETF has accumulated a rise of 6.89%, with significant increases in component stocks such as Xinzhou Bang and Duofluor, and the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 65.64% of the total [3] - The Battery ETF has seen a notable increase in scale, growing by 1.89 billion yuan over the past two weeks, and a significant increase in shares by 12.15 billion over the past month, indicating strong capital inflow [3]

Core Insights - The importance of non-ferrous metals is highlighted by two significant announcements: the inclusion of copper, silver, and uranium in the U.S. critical minerals list and China's commitment to optimizing export control processes for rare earths and other dual-use items [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Critical Minerals List - The U.S. Geological Survey released the 2025 critical minerals list, which includes ten newly added minerals such as boron, copper, lead, metallurgical coal, phosphates, potassium salts, rhenium, silicon, silver, and uranium [1]. - Minerals on this list will receive government funding support and expedited approval processes, emphasizing their strategic importance in the current international context [1]. Group 2: China's Export Control Measures - China's Ministry of Commerce stated that items like rare earths have dual-use properties and will be permitted for compliant applications, aiming to enhance communication and cooperation with other countries [1]. - The focus is on ensuring the stability and security of global supply chains while promoting compliant trade practices [1]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investment Opportunities - The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to benefit from "resource nationalism," which exacerbates supply-demand conflicts as resource-rich countries tighten controls, leading to increased development costs and potential price surges for strategic metals like copper [1]. - The anticipated start of a new macroeconomic cycle, indicated by narrowing declines in the Producer Price Index (PPI), suggests that industrial and minor metals may become core investment targets in the upcoming market [1]. Group 4: Performance of Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen a significant increase of 74.68%, leading the industry, supported by strong fundamentals [2]. - Among the 60 stocks in the leading non-ferrous metals ETF (159876), 56 companies reported profits, with 44 showing year-on-year net profit growth, including notable increases from companies like Chuangjiang New Material and Guocheng Mining [2]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - Direct investment in the non-ferrous metals sector allows investors to benefit from both the safe-haven value of precious metals and the growth potential of industrial metals in high-demand sectors like renewable energy and aerospace [2]. - The non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) provides a diversified approach, tracking a range of metals including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, which helps mitigate risks associated with investing in single metal sectors [3].

Group 1: ETF Performance - The New Energy ETF has a turnover rate of 2.21% with a transaction volume of 33.46 million yuan [3] - The latest scale of the New Energy ETF reached 1.513 billion yuan, marking a new high since its establishment [3] - In the past week, the New Energy ETF saw a significant increase of 10.2 million shares [3] - Over the last five trading days, there were net inflows on three days, totaling 81.43 million yuan [3] - As of November 6, the net value of the New Energy ETF has increased by 69.97% over the past six months, ranking 151 out of 3850 in index equity funds, placing it in the top 3.92% [3] - The highest monthly return since inception was 25.07%, with the longest consecutive monthly increase being six months and a maximum increase of 67.53% [3] - The average return during the months of increase is 8.57% [3] Group 2: Market Trends and Opportunities - According to CITIC Securities research, the market is recovering, and there is a positive outlook on the global trend of energy storage [3] - The domestic energy storage sector is experiencing a significant economic turning point, driven by the marketization of new energy and capacity electricity prices [3] - The cumulative penetration rate of energy storage is still below 10%, with an upward adjustment of new domestic installations to 300 GWh for next year [3] - The largest overseas opportunity arises from the demand for energy storage in data centers, with leading companies already securing substantial orders [3] - Energy storage is expected to drive lithium battery demand growth exceeding 30% next year, presenting investment opportunities across materials, batteries, and integration [3] Group 3: Key Stocks in New Energy Index - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI New Energy Index include: Sunshine Power, CATL, Longi Green Energy, EVE Energy, TBEA, Huayou Cobalt, Ganfeng Lithium, China Nuclear Power, Tongwei Co., and Lead Intelligent [5] - The combined weight of the top ten stocks accounts for 46.1% of the index [5]

Core Viewpoint - The green energy ETF (562010) opened with a slight decline of 0.19%, indicating a mixed performance among its major holdings [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The green energy ETF (562010) opened at 1.035 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 0.19% [1] - Since its establishment on December 16, 2022, the fund has achieved a return of 4.07%, with a monthly return of 3.81% [1] Group 2: Major Holdings Performance - Major stocks within the ETF showed varied performance: - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (宁德时代) decreased by 0.30% - BYD Company Limited (比亚迪) fell by 0.53% - Yangtze Power Co., Ltd. (长江电力) increased by 0.04% - Sungrow Power Supply Co., Ltd. (阳光电源) dropped by 1.65% - EVE Energy Co., Ltd. (亿纬锂能) decreased by 0.19% - LONGi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (隆基绿能) fell by 0.60% - Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. (华友钴业) decreased by 0.93% - Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd. (赣锋锂业) increased by 0.26% - Lead Intelligent Equipment Co., Ltd. (先导智能) dropped by 1.30% - Tongwei Co., Ltd. (通威股份) fell by 0.64% [1]

Industry Overview - The report highlights a recovery in the lithium and rare earth markets due to the easing of China-US trade relations, which is expected to support prices in the short term [6][19]. - The steel industry is facing a potential demand decline as northern regions enter the heating season, leading to increased construction site shutdowns and a tightening of supply due to environmental production restrictions [5][21]. Steel Industry - The steel PMI index for October was reported at 49.2%, indicating a slight improvement but still in contraction territory, with new orders at 47.6% [20]. - Steel production in October showed a recovery with a production index of 49.8%, but overall inventory levels increased due to a stronger supply response compared to demand [20][29]. - The average daily transaction volume of construction steel in October was 101,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.19% but a year-on-year decrease of 16.08% [22]. Copper Industry - The copper market is experiencing supply constraints due to maintenance at smelters and tight anode copper supply, with a projected decrease in output for November [35][36]. - Domestic refined copper production in September was 1.266 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.25% [36]. - The LME copper price increased by 5.84% to $10,900 per ton, while the domestic price rose by 5.45% to 87,700 yuan per ton [36]. Aluminum Industry - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production in October increased by 1.13% year-on-year, while alumina production rose by 9.41% [43][44]. - The report anticipates that alumina prices will remain low due to increased supply from the end of the rainy season in Guinea, which may support electrolytic aluminum profitability [5][43]. - The LME aluminum price increased by 8.11% to $2,900 per ton, with domestic prices rising by 2.65% to 21,300 yuan per ton [45]. Precious Metals - The easing of US-China trade tensions has reduced safe-haven demand for gold, leading to a potential stabilization in gold prices [54][55]. - COMEX gold prices increased by 3.24% to $4,013.40 per ounce, while SHFE gold prices rose by 5.43% to 921.92 yuan per gram [55]. New Energy Metals - Lithium production in September was reported at 47,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 47.59%, driven by strong demand in the energy storage sector [60]. - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 8.84% to 80,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a tightening supply-demand balance [60]. - The report emphasizes the importance of regulatory trends in optimizing the lithium supply landscape, which may support price stability [58]. Cobalt Industry - Cobalt production in October showed a year-on-year increase of 19.62% for sulfate cobalt, while the price of 1 cobalt rose by 17.25% to 404,500 yuan per ton [65][66]. - The demand for cobalt is expected to remain strong due to the growth in electric vehicle production and energy storage applications [65].

Core Viewpoint - The Green Energy ETF (562010) opened at a decline of 0.88%, priced at 1.015 yuan, indicating a challenging market environment for green energy investments [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Green Energy ETF (562010) has a performance benchmark of the CSI Green Energy Index return rate, managed by Hua Bao Fund Management Co., Ltd. [1] - Since its establishment on December 16, 2022, the fund has achieved a return of 2.68%, with a one-month return of 2.42% [1] Group 2: Major Holdings Performance - Major stocks within the Green Energy ETF include: - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) opened with a gain of 0.33% - BYD Co., Ltd. experienced a decline of 0.23% - Changjiang Electric Power Co., Ltd. fell by 0.11% - Sungrow Power Supply Co., Ltd. increased by 0.73% - EVE Energy Co., Ltd. decreased by 0.18% - LONGi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. remained unchanged - Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. dropped by 0.67% - Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd. remained unchanged - Lead Intelligent Equipment Co., Ltd. rose by 0.15% - Tongwei Co., Ltd. remained unchanged [1]

Core Insights - The Chinese lithium battery industry is emerging from a recession, with significant revenue growth observed in the first half of 2025, totaling approximately 537.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.95% [2] - In the first half of 2025, 12 out of 15 sub-sectors in the lithium battery industry reported positive revenue growth, with the fastest-growing sectors being cobalt-nickel (67.88%), lithium battery copper/aluminum foil (37.22%), and anode materials (31.64%) [2][5] - The total revenue of major lithium battery companies in China for the third quarter (July to September) reached 374.25 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.62% year-on-year increase, while net profits surged by 67.18% to 34.40 billion yuan [2][6] Industry Performance - The revenue distribution among the top 20 industry giants accounts for 70.81% of total revenue, with net profits making up 90.68% of the industry total [6] - The top-performing sectors in terms of revenue include: - Cobalt-nickel: 328.65 billion yuan, up 67.88% - Lithium battery copper foil: 272.13 billion yuan, up 37.22% - Anode materials: 242.26 billion yuan, up 31.64% [5][6] Company Rankings - The top companies by revenue in the lithium battery sector for the first half of 2025 include: - CATL: 283.07 billion yuan, up 9.28% - Huayou Cobalt: 58.94 billion yuan, up 29.57% - Yiwei Lithium Energy: 45.00 billion yuan, up 32.17% [8][9] - Notable companies with significant profit growth include: - CATL: 49.03 billion yuan, up 36.2% - Huayou Cobalt: 4.21 billion yuan, up 43.34% [21][22] Financial Metrics - The total contract liabilities for major companies show significant growth, with CATL reporting 40.68 billion yuan, a 79.58% increase year-on-year [14] - The net cash flow from financing activities for leading companies indicates strong capital inflow, with Ganfeng Lithium achieving 57.97 billion yuan, a 499.83% increase [35]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing increased volatility, with a focus on style rebalancing as several well-known balanced fund managers have proactively adjusted their holdings in anticipation of market changes [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Fund managers are identifying investment opportunities in sectors such as engineering machinery, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals, with some products in these sectors at the bottom of their price ranges [1][4] - Notable companies like China Ping An, Wanhua Chemical, XCMG, Sany Heavy Industry, and Luoyang Molybdenum have been added to the heavy stock lists or continuously increased in holdings by various fund managers [1][2] - The resource sector, particularly non-ferrous metals, has attracted significant attention, with funds increasing their positions in companies like Zijin Mining and Huaxi Nonferrous [3] Group 2: Fund Manager Actions - China Ping An has gained favor among several balanced and growth fund managers, with total holdings in various funds reaching significant values, such as 794 million yuan and 358 million yuan [2] - Fund managers like Zhou Weiwen have increased allocations to non-ferrous metals, engineering machinery, and chemicals, anticipating revenue growth as overseas demand recovers [4] - The mechanical sector has also seen increased interest, with funds like Morgan Emerging Power adding XCMG to their top holdings [2] Group 3: Market Trends and Strategies - The recent shift towards value and cyclical stocks is seen as a response to the high valuation of technology growth stocks, leading to a balanced investment strategy to mitigate risks [1][7] - ETFs tracking various indices have seen significant net inflows, indicating a market trend towards lower valuation and dividend-paying assets [6] - The market is expected to undergo a style switch, with institutions likely to adjust their portfolios in November to prepare for the upcoming spring market [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The electric equipment sector is leading the market with a net inflow of over 32.4 billion yuan, driven by strong demand for AI, ongoing policy support, and growth in overseas markets [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The electric equipment sector (申万) increased by 3.40%, with a net inflow of 32.443 billion yuan, making it the top sector for capital absorption [2]. - Major stocks like 阳光电源 and 亿纬锂能 received significant capital inflows of 2.452 billion yuan and 1.342 billion yuan, ranking second and fifth in the A-share capital absorption list [1][2]. Group 2: ETF Performance - The green energy ETF (562010) saw a midday increase of 3.21%, closing up 2.61%, and has risen 39.13% since August, outperforming major indices like the创业板指 and沪深300 [2]. - Among the 50 constituent stocks, 44 saw gains, with 阿特斯 hitting the daily limit, and other stocks like 天合光能 and 亿纬锂能 also showing strong performance [2]. Group 3: Industry Drivers - Policy support emphasizes the acceleration of a new energy system and aims for carbon peak by 2030, benefiting leading companies like 宁德时代 and 阳光电源 [4]. - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability, with major companies planning to consolidate capacity to stabilize prices [4]. Group 4: Technological Advancements - Recent research from Tsinghua University has made breakthroughs in solid-state batteries, addressing challenges in fast charging and battery life [5]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook - The green energy sector is expected to have solid long-term growth driven by global energy investments shifting towards clean energy, with electrification and renewable resources shaping the future energy landscape [5][6].

Core Insights - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing an upward trend, with the National Index for Non-Ferrous Metals (399395) rising by 0.64% as of November 5, 2025, driven by strong performances from key stocks such as Vanadium Titanium Co. (000629) and Tianqi Lithium (002466) [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector is buoyed by the lithium battery segment, which has seen significant price increases in lithium carbonate due to robust demand from the new energy vehicle and energy storage markets [1] - The ETF for non-ferrous metals (159880) has also increased by 0.65%, reflecting the overall positive sentiment in the sector [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - A potential supply disruption in copper is expected to elevate price levels, with projections indicating a tight supply-demand situation for copper in 2026 [1] - The aluminum market is nearing the end of its peak season, with supply-side factors providing rigid support for price levels [1] - Tungsten prices are on the rise, with expectations of recovering export demand [1] Group 3: Lithium Market Insights - Lithium carbonate prices have shown a slight increase this week, attributed to better-than-expected demand in the downstream sector [1] - October's lithium carbonate production continued to grow, with a month-on-month increase of 6% and a year-on-year surge of 55%, indicating strong production enthusiasm within the industry [1] - Despite uncertainties in mining policies in Jiangxi, strong demand is expected to provide robust support for lithium prices, with forecasts suggesting continued price increases in November [1] Group 4: Index Composition - The National Index for Non-Ferrous Metals (399395) includes 50 prominent securities from the non-ferrous metal sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in this industry [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 52.91% of the total index, highlighting the concentration of performance among leading companies such as Zijin Mining (601899) and Ganfeng Lithium (002460) [2]