Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Views - The report anticipates a strong fluctuation in lithium prices in the short term, supported by a backdrop of price reassessment across key metals [1] - The Indonesian government plans to reduce nickel and coal production in 2026, which, combined with Vale's suspension of nickel mining, is expected to tighten supply and support nickel prices [1] - The cobalt market is expected to remain structurally tight, with prices likely to rise further due to ongoing supply constraints [2][5] - The antimony market is showing signs of recovery in exports, which may lead to domestic prices converging with higher international prices [6][18] - The lithium market is experiencing a continuous destocking trend, with prices expected to remain strong due to stable demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [8][19] - The rare earth market is tightening due to new export restrictions from Vietnam, which may further support prices [20] - The tin market faces uncertainties in supply due to ongoing issues in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia's export controls [21] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Indonesia's government plans to cut nickel production by approximately 34% in 2026, reducing the target to 250 million tons from 379 million tons in 2025 [1] - Vale's Indonesian operations have halted nickel mining, contributing to supply tightness [1] - The cobalt market is expected to face structural supply constraints, with prices projected to rise due to a decrease in available export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [2][5] Antimony Industry Update - Domestic antimony prices are expected to rise as supply remains tight, particularly with winter mining activities slowing down [6][18] - The Chinese government has implemented export controls that may further tighten supply and support higher domestic prices [6][18] Lithium Industry Update - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has increased to 118,600 CNY/ton, reflecting a 16.76% rise [8] - Continuous destocking in the lithium market is expected to support prices, with demand from the electric vehicle sector remaining robust [8][19] Rare Earth Industry Update - New export restrictions from Vietnam are expected to tighten global rare earth supply, supporting prices [20] - China continues to dominate the rare earth supply chain, with significant production capacity compared to other countries [20] Tin Industry Update - The tin market is facing uncertainties due to supply issues in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia's export controls [21] - Recent increases in tin imports from Myanmar may help alleviate some supply concerns, but overall uncertainty remains [21]

迎接繁荣的起点，1 月如何布局？20251231 西部证券策略团队对 2026 年的 A 股市场有哪些预期？ 摘要 美联储降息及潜在 QE 将推动跨境资本回流中国，修复实体部门现金流 量表和资产负债表，为中国经济带来繁荣机遇。关注有色金属、新消费 和高端制造等受益行业。 西部证券策略团队预计 2026 年 A 股市场将创新高，波动性放大，有色 金属、新消费、高端制造等顺周期板块将表现突出，紫金矿业、华峰铝 业等公司具备投资机会。 坚定看好未来两到三年铜和铝市场，供给端紧张，需求稳定即可推动价 格上涨。工业金属是首选，其中铜和铝最被看好。 紫金矿业作为全球第三大铜矿公司，受益于铜价上涨和产量增长，预计 2026 年营收可达 800 亿，市值有望达到 1.6 万亿。 华峰铝业质地优良，产能扩张谨慎，具备 20%-25%的 ROE 及 15%以 上复合增速，目前估值较低，是穿越周期、具备绝对收益潜力的投资标 的。 华友钴业主要利润来源是镍，预计三年内利润翻倍，若镍价上涨，则可 能两年内实现。镍市场供给集中，受青山公司主导，印尼政策变化将推 动镍价上涨。 国泰海通整合效应将在 2026 年全面释放，客户数量行业领先， ...

Group 1 - The sodium-ion battery concept sector declined by 0.86%, ranking among the top declines in concept sectors, with Evergrande High-tech hitting the limit down [1] - Major stocks in the sodium-ion battery sector that saw significant declines include HaiKe New Energy, ZhengTong Electronics, and XinTe Electric, while stocks like KeXiang Co., Quzhou Dongfeng, and Xiamen Tungsten New Energy experienced gains [1] - The top gainers in the concept sector included KeXiang Co. with a rise of 5.99%, Quzhou Dongfeng with 3.86%, and Xiamen Tungsten New Energy with 2.94% [1] Group 2 - The sodium-ion battery sector experienced a net outflow of 2.348 billion yuan, with 95 stocks seeing net outflows, and 8 stocks with outflows exceeding 100 million yuan [1] - The stock with the highest net outflow was Yiwei Lithium Energy, with a net outflow of 544 million yuan, followed by BYD and Huayou Cobalt with outflows of 443 million yuan and 224 million yuan respectively [1] - Stocks with the highest net inflows included Tianqi Materials, Tianji Co., and KeXiang Co., with inflows of 705 million yuan, 215 million yuan, and 80 million yuan respectively [1] Group 3 - The top decliners in the sodium-ion battery sector included Yiwei Lithium Energy at -2.87%, BYD at -2.04%, and Huayou Cobalt at 0.34% [2] - Other notable decliners included XINWANDA at -3.82%, Penghui Energy at -3.76%, and Ningde Times at -0.53% [2] - The overall trading activity in the sector showed a significant turnover rate, with stocks like Evergrande High-tech reaching a turnover rate of 18.98% [1][2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant increase in the rare metals sector, with the CS Rare Metals Index rising by 1.14% and individual stocks like Western Materials and Shengxin Lithium Industry seeing gains of over 5% and 4% respectively [1] - The Rare Metals ETF (562800) has shown a year-to-date increase of over 92%, indicating strong investor interest and performance in this sector [1] - A wave of production cuts and maintenance in the lithium iron phosphate industry is anticipated as companies prepare for a surge in downstream demand by 2026, with Longpan Technology announcing a planned reduction in production starting January 1, 2026 [1] Group 2 - According to a report from CITIC Securities, the profitability of the lithium iron phosphate industry is expected to reach a cyclical turning point, with current profitability at a low point and potential for recovery as supply-demand dynamics improve [1] - The report emphasizes that the trend towards high-end products and international expansion is likely to yield excess profits for leading companies in the lithium iron phosphate sector [1] - The Rare Metals ETF (562800) tracks the CSI Rare Metals Theme Index, with its top ten weighted stocks including Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and Huayou Cobalt, collectively accounting for approximately 60% of the fund [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance of the non-ferrous metal industry, with the National Index for Non-Ferrous Metals (399395) rising by 0.72% and specific stocks like Guocheng Mining (000688) and Huayou Cobalt (603799) showing significant gains [1] - The COMEX gold futures increased by 0.2% to $4,352.3 per ounce, while spot gold rose by 0.17% to $4,338.83 per ounce, indicating a strong momentum in precious metals [1] - The article mentions a policy from the National Development and Reform Commission encouraging mergers and reorganizations in resource-constrained industries like alumina, which has led to a significant rise in alumina prices [1] Group 2 - The Non-Ferrous Metals ETF (159880) closely tracks the National Index for Non-Ferrous Metals, which includes 50 securities that reflect the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metal sector [2] - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Index for Non-Ferrous Metals account for 52.34% of the index, with companies like Zijin Mining (601899) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) being prominent [2]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·有色金属 有色金属行业跟踪周报 市场缺乏进一步指引，贵金属动量趋势强劲 价格再创新高 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 回顾本周行情（12 月 22 日-12 月 26 日），有色板块本周上涨 6.43%，在全部一级 行业中排名靠前。二级行业方面，周内申万有色金属类二级行业中工业金属板块上 涨 7.07%，能源金属板块上涨 6.66%，小金属板块上涨 6.16%，金属新材料板块上 涨 4.93%，贵金属板块上涨 4.06%。工业金属方面，本周海外受到圣诞假期影响流 动性低迷，数据层面好坏参半，市场缺乏进一步有效指引，本周市场交易更多跟随 惯性动量，受美元继续下行支撑，本周工业金属价格维持上行驱动。贵金属方面， 本周贵金属价格维持上行驱动。基于上述流动性低迷的现状，以及 LME 白银租赁 利率的持续高企，沪银同时出现了期现溢价以及内外盘溢价，投资者需警惕随着海 外流动性回归，以及 26 年 1 月 8 日至 1 月 15 日彭博 BCOM 商品指数调仓引发的 潜在回调风险。 ◼ 周观点： 铜：TC 价格落地沪铜维持惯性上涨突破 10 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that China is entering a period of prosperity similar to Japan in 1978, driven by high industrial value added and export ratios, along with continued trade surpluses and wage growth [1][11] - The cash flow statements of the real economy in China have been damaged from 2022 to 2024 due to the Fed's interest rate hikes and a decline in real estate prices, leading to capital outflows and reduced cash flow [2][12] - The resumption of the Fed's interest rate cuts is expected to reverse the outflow of cross-border capital, thereby repairing the cash flow statements of enterprises and households [3][13] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the necessity of debt restructuring in China, drawing parallels with Japan's experience in the 1990s, where failure to act led to prolonged economic stagnation [4][14] - The potential for the Fed's quantitative easing (QE) to provide the necessary liquidity for China's central bank to undertake debt restructuring is highlighted, which could alleviate external constraints on the yuan [4][14] - The year 2026 is projected to mark the beginning of a new prosperity phase for China's economy, with a cyclical shift expected in manufacturing and consumption sectors [6][15] Group 3 - The report recommends a selection of stocks for January 2026, including Huafeng Aluminum, Zijin Mining, and TCL Technology, among others, indicating a focus on sectors poised for growth [9][10] - The automotive sector is highlighted, with Great Wall Motors and Leap Motor being noted for their strategic positioning in high-end and global markets [32][38] - In the chemical sector, Dongfang Tower is recognized for its growth potential driven by increasing potassium and phosphorus production [41][43]

Group 1 - The energy metals sector increased by 1.84% on December 30, with Shengtu Mining leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3965.12, unchanged, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.49% to 13604.07 [1] - Key stocks in the energy metals sector showed varied performance, with Jidian Mining up by 4.72% and Ganfeng Lithium down by 1.79% [2] Group 2 - The main capital flow in the energy metals sector showed a net outflow of 153 million yuan from institutional investors and 158 million yuan from speculative funds, while retail investors had a net inflow of 311 million yuan [2][3] - Specific stock capital flows indicated that Huayou Cobalt had a net inflow of 490 million yuan from main funds, while Shengtu Mining experienced a net outflow of 961.26 million yuan [3] - The overall trading volume and turnover for key stocks in the sector varied, with Yongxing Materials achieving a turnover of 266.68 million yuan and Tianqi Lithium at 3.159 billion yuan [1][2]

情绪扰动叠加资金博弈，部分品种价格波动或加大 | 研 | | | | | | | | ——金属行业周报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 究 | 分析师： | | 张珂 | | S1150523120001 | | SAC NO： | 2025 年 12 月 30 | | 日 | | | | | | 钢铁 | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资要点： | | | 有色金属 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 证券分析师 | | |  | | 行业情况及产品价格走势初判 | | | | | | | | | | 张珂 | | | | 钢铁：随着淡季的逐步深入，钢材需求改善空间不大，后续随着需求季节性走 | | | | | | | | | | | zhangke@bhzq.com | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 研究助理 | | | | | | | | | | | 铜：目前在高铜价的影 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is poised for a significant growth cycle starting in 2026, characterized by strong demand recovery, accelerated global expansion, and disruptive technological advancements, leading to a "spiral rise" in both volume and price [3]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Global lithium battery production is projected to reach 2250 GWh by 2025, with a growth rate of 30% in 2026, particularly in the energy storage sector, which is expected to grow by 48.3% [5]. - The demand surge will create substantial pressure on the supply of battery cells and four key upstream materials, highlighting a potential supply gap that needs to be addressed for stable and efficient supply chains [5]. Group 2: Conference Details - The 2026 Lithium Key Materials and Application Market Summit will be held on March 19-20, 2026, in Changzhou, Jiangsu, organized by Xinluo Information [4]. - The summit will focus on three core topics: in-depth discussions on cutting-edge technologies and market supply-demand dynamics, the release of the 2025 authoritative lithium battery brand rankings, and B2B procurement matchmaking [5][6][7]. Group 3: Key Topics and Speakers - The main forum will cover topics such as the outlook for lithium ore resource supply, operational strategies for lithium carbonate in the current market environment, and advancements in high-energy-density power battery technology [9]. - Sub-forums will address critical materials for power batteries and energy storage, including discussions on solid-state battery technology and market trends for electrolytes and separators [10][11]. Group 4: Participation and Costs - The participation fee for the conference is set at 2800 yuan per person, with a limited-time free attendance option available for the first 200 registrants [17].