Group 1 - The report indicates that China is entering a period of prosperity similar to Japan in 1978, driven by high industrial value added and export ratios, along with continued trade surpluses and wage growth [1][11] - The cash flow statements of the real economy in China have been damaged from 2022 to 2024 due to the Fed's interest rate hikes and a decline in real estate prices, leading to capital outflows and reduced cash flow [2][12] - The resumption of the Fed's interest rate cuts is expected to reverse the outflow of cross-border capital, thereby repairing the cash flow statements of enterprises and households [3][13] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the necessity of debt restructuring in China, drawing parallels with Japan's experience in the 1990s, where failure to act led to prolonged economic stagnation [4][14] - The potential for the Fed's quantitative easing (QE) to provide the necessary liquidity for China's central bank to undertake debt restructuring is highlighted, which could alleviate external constraints on the yuan [4][14] - The year 2026 is projected to mark the beginning of a new prosperity phase for China's economy, with a cyclical shift expected in manufacturing and consumption sectors [6][15] Group 3 - The report recommends a selection of stocks for January 2026, including Huafeng Aluminum, Zijin Mining, and TCL Technology, among others, indicating a focus on sectors poised for growth [9][10] - The automotive sector is highlighted, with Great Wall Motors and Leap Motor being noted for their strategic positioning in high-end and global markets [32][38] - In the chemical sector, Dongfang Tower is recognized for its growth potential driven by increasing potassium and phosphorus production [41][43]

Group 1 - The energy metals sector increased by 1.84% on December 30, with Shengtu Mining leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3965.12, unchanged, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.49% to 13604.07 [1] - Key stocks in the energy metals sector showed varied performance, with Jidian Mining up by 4.72% and Ganfeng Lithium down by 1.79% [2] Group 2 - The main capital flow in the energy metals sector showed a net outflow of 153 million yuan from institutional investors and 158 million yuan from speculative funds, while retail investors had a net inflow of 311 million yuan [2][3] - Specific stock capital flows indicated that Huayou Cobalt had a net inflow of 490 million yuan from main funds, while Shengtu Mining experienced a net outflow of 961.26 million yuan [3] - The overall trading volume and turnover for key stocks in the sector varied, with Yongxing Materials achieving a turnover of 266.68 million yuan and Tianqi Lithium at 3.159 billion yuan [1][2]

情绪扰动叠加资金博弈，部分品种价格波动或加大 | 研 | | | | | | | | ——金属行业周报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 究 | 分析师： | | 张珂 | | S1150523120001 | | SAC NO： | 2025 年 12 月 30 | | 日 | | | | | | 钢铁 | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资要点： | | | 有色金属 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 证券分析师 | | |  | | 行业情况及产品价格走势初判 | | | | | | | | | | 张珂 | | | | 钢铁：随着淡季的逐步深入，钢材需求改善空间不大，后续随着需求季节性走 | | | | | | | | | | | zhangke@bhzq.com | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 研究助理 | | | | | | | | | | | 铜：目前在高铜价的影 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is poised for a significant growth cycle starting in 2026, characterized by strong demand recovery, accelerated global expansion, and disruptive technological advancements, leading to a "spiral rise" in both volume and price [3]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Global lithium battery production is projected to reach 2250 GWh by 2025, with a growth rate of 30% in 2026, particularly in the energy storage sector, which is expected to grow by 48.3% [5]. - The demand surge will create substantial pressure on the supply of battery cells and four key upstream materials, highlighting a potential supply gap that needs to be addressed for stable and efficient supply chains [5]. Group 2: Conference Details - The 2026 Lithium Key Materials and Application Market Summit will be held on March 19-20, 2026, in Changzhou, Jiangsu, organized by Xinluo Information [4]. - The summit will focus on three core topics: in-depth discussions on cutting-edge technologies and market supply-demand dynamics, the release of the 2025 authoritative lithium battery brand rankings, and B2B procurement matchmaking [5][6][7]. Group 3: Key Topics and Speakers - The main forum will cover topics such as the outlook for lithium ore resource supply, operational strategies for lithium carbonate in the current market environment, and advancements in high-energy-density power battery technology [9]. - Sub-forums will address critical materials for power batteries and energy storage, including discussions on solid-state battery technology and market trends for electrolytes and separators [10][11]. Group 4: Participation and Costs - The participation fee for the conference is set at 2800 yuan per person, with a limited-time free attendance option available for the first 200 registrants [17].

今日（12月30日）揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色ETF华宝（159876）场内价格从开盘下挫2%，迅速拉 升至水面以上，现涨0.52%，彰显韧性，值得关注的是，截至发稿，该ETF获资金实时净申购2880万 份，昨天亦吸金1536万元，反映资金看好有色金属板块后市表现，积极进场布局！ | 有色ETF华宝 | | 159876 | | --- | --- | --- | | 0.974 | +0.005 +0.52% | | | SZSE CNY 10:16:39 交易中 | | 1 . . + | | 净值走势 | 华宝中证有色金属ETF | | | 实时申购随回信息 | 申购 | 18-0 | | 笔数 | 31 | 0 | | 全额 | 0 | 0 | | 份额 | 2880万 | 0 | 成份股方面，天山铝业、云铝股份领涨超4%，江西铜业、中国铝业、洛阳钼业、神火股份涨逾2%，厦 门钨业、华友钴业等个股跟涨。 | 序号 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 两日图 | 申万一级行业 | 申万二级行业 | 申万三级行业 | 总市值 | 成交額 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

上银丰益混合A（011504）成立日期2021年4月28日，最新规模2570.44万。今年以来收益27.83%，同类 排名3387/8087；近一年收益26.36%，同类排名3342/8085；成立以来收益34.17%。 上银丰益混合A（011504）基金经理为高永。 12月30日，华友钴业涨1.06%，截至发稿，报65.81元/股，成交6.32亿元，换手率0.52%，总市值1248.24 亿元。 资料显示，浙江华友钴业股份有限公司位于浙江省桐乡经济开发区二期梧振东路18号，成立日期2002年 5月22日，上市日期2015年1月29日，公司主营业务涉及新能源锂电材料和钴新材料产品的研发制造。主 营业务收入构成为：镍产品34.54%，正极材料16.28%，贸易及其他15.55%，镍中间品14.91%，铜产品 5.95%，三元前驱体5.25%，锂产品4.18%，钴产品3.33%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，上银基金旗下1只基金重仓华友钴业。上银丰益混合A（011504）三季度持有股数1.6万股， 占基金净值比例为1.13%，位居第六大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约1.1万元。 截至发稿，高永累计任职时间9 ...

国信证券近日发布锂电产业链双周评：电池端，宁德时代与岚图签署十年深化合作协议；宁德时代与思 源电气签署3年50GWh储能合作备忘录。材料端，宁德时代与韩国Enchem签署35万吨电解液订单；华友 钴业与国际知名客户签署7.96万吨三元前驱体订单；海科星源与法恩莱特签署电解液溶剂及添加剂3年 27万吨订单。 固态电池产业化加速推进：材料端，欣旺达动力与中伟股份签署固态电池战略合作框架协议。电池端， 美国QuantumScape与全球前十汽车制造商签署联合开发固态电池协议；美国Factorial宣布，已与CGCT 达成最终业务合并协议，双方合并后Factorial将在纳斯达克挂牌上市；金龙羽拟设15亿元产业并购基 金，聚焦新能源固态电池产业链投资。 锂电产业链大单不断：电池端，宁德时代与岚图签署十年深化合作协议；宁德时代与思源电气签署3年 50GWh储能合作备忘录。材料端，宁德时代与韩国Enchem签署35万吨电解液订单；华友钴业与国际知 名客户签署7.96万吨三元前驱体订单；海科星源与法恩莱特签署电解液溶剂及添加剂3年27万吨订单。 多家磷酸铁锂企业公告进行部分产线检修：12月25日至26日，湖南裕能、万润新能 ...

数据显示，截至2025年11月28日，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)前十大权重股分别为紫金矿业 (601899)、洛阳钼业(603993)、北方稀土(600111)、华友钴业(603799)、中国铝业(601600)、赣锋锂业 (002460)、中金黄金(600489)、山东黄金(600547)、天齐锂业(002466)、云铝股份(000807)，前十大权重 股合计占比52.34%。 有色ETF基金(159880)，场外联接(A：021296；C：021297；I：022886)。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 贵金属板块盘中震荡走强，白银方向领涨，消息面上，沪银主力合约日内一度涨超7%，现货白银日内 一度涨超5%，盘中均刷新历史高点。此外，LME伦铜涨幅扩大超5%，报12785.33美元/吨，创历史新 高。 华福证券指出，低于市场预期的通胀数据刺激美联储降息预期，推动美债收益率下滑，为金银价格提供 了上涨动力。随着美元疲软和美联储降息预期等多重因素的合力，金银价格再创历史新高。宏观经济数 据走弱叠加区域升级，进一步提升黄金避险属性和配置价值。美方降息关税刺激市 ...

截至12月24日，中证申万有色金属指数年内涨幅高达88%，创下近年来罕见的年度涨幅纪录。伦敦现货 黄金站上4500美元/盎司，LME铜价突破1.21万美元/吨，纽约银年内涨幅翻倍，钴价从年初16万元/吨反 弹至年末超40万元/吨，一系列核心品种价格屡破历史新高。 这场行情早已超越传统供需驱动的周期逻辑，成为全球产业链重构、AI浪潮崛起与央行资产配置调整 共同作用的必然结果。有色金属行业正从"被动跟随周期的工业原料"，向"主动定义价值的战略核心资 源"完成深刻转型。 头部企业凭借资源卡位与产业链一体化优势，实现股价与业绩的"戴维斯双击"，而AI、新能源等新兴领 域的需求爆发，更让钨、钽、钴等品种迎来价值重估。 华夏时报记者 张蓓 见习记者 黄指南 深圳报道 周期迭代藏机遇，资源重估启新程。 2025年资本市场的收官钟声临近，有色金属板块以领涨主线姿态贯穿全年，勾勒出全年资本市场的景气 主线。 在全球经济转型与技术革命的交汇点上，2025年的金属牛市不仅是价格的狂欢，更是行业高质量发展的 新起点，其背后的供需重构与企业转型逻辑，正重塑全球有色金属产业格局。 有色牛市下 金属行情分化与共性 供需两端的双向发力，是本 ...

钴价创年内新高，权益迎来布局良机！20251227 1.5 万吨之间，因此 11 月份库存减少了七八千吨。截至 11 月底，中国大约还 有 4.5 万吨库存。如果刚果金的货物在明年 4 月中下旬才能到港，那么未来几 个月内中国将继续消耗库存，到明年 4 月底可能只剩七八千吨，这仅够半个月 使用。 碳酸锂方面，磷酸铁锂企业计划停产检修或暂时减少需求，但全年需求 仍取决于电池排产。若碳酸锂全年均价为 15 万元/吨，华友钴业碳酸锂 业务利润可观，阿卡迪亚项目扩产后成本有望降至 5-6 万元/吨。 综合来看，预计 2026 年一季度钴、镍、锂或共同上涨，建议关注华友 钴业、格林美和腾远钴业等公司，这些公司生产储备稳健，有望从市场 行情中获益。 目前钴市场的最新动态是什么？ 最近，钴市场出现了显著变化。无锡盘的电解钴价格已经上涨至 43.6 万元， 创下年内新高。这一趋势与 12 月初电话会议中提到的预期一致。主要原因是 刚果金的钴原料迟迟未能出口，比原计划晚了两个多月时间。目前，刚果金的 出口流程仍在审批阶段，即使是作为试点的佳能可和落幕矿山也未能形成有效 出口。在圣诞节假期期间，这一进程预计将进一步延迟至明年 1 ...