2月3日，有色板块持续回暖，湖南黄金冲击涨停，盛和资源、云南锗业、北方稀土、中国稀土等涨超 4%，有色矿业ETF招商（159690）涨超2%。 上周，贵金属出现历史性行情，受交易拥挤、新任美联储主席和美股科技股下跌压制，贵金属整体出现 暴跌，尤其是前期涨幅过高的白银，单日最大跌幅超过30%，黄金最大跌幅超过10%。今日盘中，金银 现货价格反弹，截至发稿，伦敦银现涨超5%，伦敦金现涨超3%。 中邮证券指出，短期来看，由于获利盘出清导致价格可能会出现剧烈震荡，不排除进一步下跌可能性， 但伦敦金可以在4800-4900盎司之间寻找低位筹码。长期来看，去美元化的进程不会转向，此次调整不 是贵金属行情的结束，耐心等待价格转向的时点。 有色矿业ETF招商（159690）所跟踪的有色矿业指数是一只高度聚焦于有色金属产业链最上游——矿产 资源开采环节的指数，当有色金属价格（如铜价、金价、锂价）上涨时，上游矿产公司的利润会直接、 快速地提升，因此有色矿业指数表现出更强的价格弹性，贝塔值更高，在商品牛市或通胀环境中进攻性 十足。 数据来源:Wind_截至2026.1.30。 了 指数介绍 主流有色主题指数历史行情 388%- 3 ...

来源：新浪基金∞工作室 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 2月3日，有色金属ETF（512400）开盘涨3.99%，报2.189元。有色金属ETF（512400）重仓股方面，紫 金矿业开盘涨3.36%，洛阳钼业涨3.12%，北方稀土涨2.41%，华友钴业涨2.33%，中国铝业涨2.99%，赣 锋锂业涨2.91%，山东黄金跌7.33%，云铝股份涨2.70%，中金黄金跌8.16%，藏格矿业涨3.34%。 有色金属ETF（512400）业绩比较基准为中证申万有色金属指数收益率，管理人为南方基金管理股份有 限公司，基金经理为崔蕾，成立（2017-08-03）以来回报为123.28%，近一个月回报为13.45%。 ...

Group 1 - The non-ferrous sector is experiencing a rebound, with companies like Hunan Gold and Northern Rare Earth seeing significant gains, while the non-ferrous mining ETF is also up over 2% [1] - Precious metals faced a historic downturn due to trading congestion and external pressures, with silver and gold experiencing maximum daily declines of over 30% and 10% respectively [1][14] - Short-term volatility is expected in precious metal prices due to profit-taking, but long-term trends indicate that the de-dollarization process will continue, suggesting that the current adjustment is not the end of the precious metal rally [1][18] Group 2 - The non-ferrous mining index has shown a strong performance over the past year, with a return of 146.48% and a maximum drawdown of -13.76% [3] - The index focuses on the upstream mining segment of the non-ferrous metal industry, with copper, gold, and aluminum making up over 58% of its composition [5] - Historical performance indicates that the non-ferrous mining index has a cumulative increase of 353.53% over the past decade, with an annualized return of 16.83% [10][12] Group 3 - The market outlook for 2026 suggests that central bank gold purchases and rising gold ETF holdings will continue to support gold prices, while copper prices are expected to find support amid supply disruptions [19] - The aluminum market is facing downward pressure due to seasonal factors and a decline in processing activity, with a reported drop of 1.5 percentage points in aluminum processing [19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of rare metal ETFs and the underlying stocks, with the CSI Rare Metals Theme Index rising by 1.05% as of February 3, 2026, and the rare metal ETF fund increasing by 0.84% [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Rare Metals Theme Index account for 59.71% of the index, with significant contributors including Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and Ganfeng Lithium [1] - The strategic attributes of minor metals are becoming increasingly prominent, with tungsten prices rising due to supply constraints and strong demand, while uranium prices are expected to continue increasing due to rigid supply and accelerated nuclear power construction [1] Group 2 - Dongfang Securities emphasizes the clear investment value of core lithium and cobalt stocks, suggesting active positioning despite short-term price corrections due to regulatory impacts and market fluctuations [2] - The lithium market is projected to have a significant gap by 2026, with rising raw material costs and limited supply contributing to an upward trend in lithium prices [2] - The rare metal ETF fund tracks the CS Rare Metal Index, which primarily allocates to lithium carbonate, minor metals, and rare earths, making it an excellent investment tool for market participants looking to invest in the rare metal sector [2]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the copper industry and strategic metals, highlighting recent trends in pricing and demand dynamics [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Copper Price Decline and Recovery in Orders**: - A significant drop in copper prices has led to a surge in downstream purchasing activity. According to a survey by Mysteel, 31 domestic copper rod manufacturers and 6 traders reported an order volume of 43,000 tons, an increase of 28,600 tons from the previous day, representing a 197.73% week-on-week growth [1]. - Specifically, the order volume for refined copper rods reached 41,700 tons, marking a historical high since the survey began, with a week-on-week increase of 29,000 tons, or 228.75% [1]. - This indicates that as copper prices fall, downstream demand is beginning to materialize, with companies moving to fulfill delayed orders from December [1]. - **Strategic Metals and Resource Stocks**: - The value of strategic resources will determine the positioning of resource stocks in the market. The external manifestation of this value is reflected in the pricing of strategic metals [2]. - There is confidence in the long-term prospects for strategic metals, particularly tin and nickel, with a strong outlook for these commodities through 2026 [3][4]. Additional Important Content - **Investment Opportunities in Resource Companies**: - Recommendations for bottom-fishing in quality companies include: - **Copper**: Zijin Mining (900 billion as a bottom), Western Mining (70 billion bottom), and Luoyang Molybdenum (around 450 billion bottom). Minmetals Resources and China Nonferrous Mining are noted for their low valuations [4]. - **Aluminum**: China Aluminum (200 billion bottom, 22 billion profit) based on a price assumption of 23,000 [4]. - **Tin**: Huaxi Nonferrous (300 billion, with profits expected around 2 billion) and Tin Industry Co. (already low valuation) based on a price assumption of 350,000 [4]. - **Nickel**: Huayou Cobalt with profits of 8 billion at a nickel price of 15,000, considered very cheap [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Huatai-PineBridge ETF (159652) in the non-ferrous metals sector, which opened with a gain of 3.96% at 1.891 yuan [1] - The ETF's major holdings include Zijin Mining, which rose by 3.36%, Luoyang Molybdenum by 3.12%, Northern Rare Earth by 2.41%, and others, indicating a positive trend in the sector [1] - The ETF has a performance benchmark based on the CSI Sub-Industry Non-Ferrous Metals Theme Index, managed by Huatai-PineBridge Fund Management Co., Ltd., with a return of 89.27% since its inception on January 16, 2023, and a monthly return of 13.04% [1] Group 2 - Notable stock movements include Ganfeng Lithium increasing by 2.91%, while Shandong Gold experienced a decline of 7.33%, and Zhongjin Gold fell by 8.16%, reflecting volatility within the sector [1] - The article provides a snapshot of the ETF's performance and its key holdings, which are crucial for investors looking at opportunities in the non-ferrous metals market [1]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report highlights that the recent volatility in gold and silver prices is primarily driven by market momentum reversals, with silver attracting high leverage and speculative funds since November 2025 [2][5] - The report anticipates that after the appointment of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, there will be more interest rate cuts than the market expects, with short-term U.S. Treasury yields likely to decline [2][4] - The report notes that the recent decline in the manufacturing PMI does not indicate a weakening economy, as it reflects a temporary fluctuation rather than a downward trend [10] Group 2: Commodity Market Analysis - The report indicates that the recent crash in silver prices has led to liquidity risks that may spread to other commodities, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector [5][6] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the support levels for gold prices, particularly the 60-day moving average, which is currently at $4,400 per ounce [5] - The report suggests that the Shanghai Futures Exchange has implemented measures to manage the risk of a one-sided market in silver futures [5] Group 3: Equity Market Outlook - The report predicts a rebound in the A-share market following the Spring Festival, driven by positive sentiment from performance forecasts and new developments in sectors like AI applications and commercial aerospace [6][10] - It advises a balanced ETF allocation in domestic equities, reflecting a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the market [11] Group 4: Bond Market Perspective - The report notes that the bond market is expected to see increased buying activity due to risk aversion and expectations of monetary easing, with 10-year yields projected to decline to around 1.80% [7][10] - It highlights that the recent adjustments in risk appetite have created trading opportunities in government bonds as a hedge against stock market volatility [4][7]

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market has experienced a significant pullback, with spot gold dropping over 6% on February 2, reflecting a fragile structure after a sharp short-term rise. The long-term outlook for the non-ferrous sector remains strong due to factors such as the restructuring of the monetary credit system, supply-side rigidity, and new demand dynamics, although short-term risks of correction should be monitored [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Trends - The non-ferrous sector has shown volatility, with traditional valuation models becoming ineffective as market sentiment and geopolitical factors increasingly influence prices [3]. - The nomination of Waller as the next Federal Reserve Chair has led to expectations of policy shifts, including a significant reduction in the Fed's balance sheet, which could impact liquidity and future interest rate cuts [3]. - On January 30, international gold prices recorded their largest single-day drop in 40 years, indicating heightened volatility and risk in the gold market, prompting experts to advise caution among investors [3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities and Risks - The non-ferrous sector presents both long-term investment opportunities and short-term risks, necessitating a rational approach from investors based on their risk tolerance [1]. - The recent performance of the non-ferrous ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) indicates a significant drop in component stocks, with many experiencing declines of over 5% [2][6]. - Despite the recent downturn, the long-term fundamentals for industrial metals like copper, aluminum, and tin remain strong, with expectations for price recovery post-correction [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market dynamics, including high global debt and geopolitical uncertainties, provide a solid foundation for precious metal prices to trend positively in the long run [4]. - The non-ferrous ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) is highlighted for its comprehensive coverage of various metal sectors, positioning it well to benefit from the ongoing supercycle in non-ferrous metals [5][9]. - The ETF's index has shown a cumulative return leading its peers, with a significant portion of its gains driven by earnings rather than valuation increases, indicating a favorable investment environment [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry and specific companies within the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting a positive outlook for gold and silver prices in the medium to long term [2][4]. Core Views - The new Federal Reserve Chairman's policies have raised concerns, leading to a correction in gold and silver prices. However, the long-term trend remains bullish due to central bank gold purchases and a weakening dollar credit [2][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of geopolitical factors and macroeconomic policies in influencing metal prices, particularly in the context of expanding domestic demand in China [8][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry and Stock Performance - The SW Non-ferrous Index increased by 3.37% during the week, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44% [8]. - Key companies recommended for investment include Zijin Mining, China Molybdenum, and Yunnan Aluminum, among others, with a focus on their earnings forecasts and valuations [2][8]. 2. Base Metals - Aluminum prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions and domestic production adjustments, with a notable increase in aluminum inventory [24][28]. - Copper prices are expected to remain stable, supported by a weak dollar and increased import activity, despite a generally subdued demand environment [45][48]. - Zinc prices have shown volatility due to external factors and domestic supply disruptions, with a recent increase in prices observed [49][50]. 3. Precious Metals and Minor Metals - Gold and silver prices are projected to rise in the medium term, driven by central bank purchases and a weakening dollar [2][8]. - The report highlights the potential for price increases in cobalt and nickel due to supply constraints and geopolitical factors [2][24][63]. 4. Rare Earths - The report does not provide specific insights into rare earths, focusing instead on the broader non-ferrous metals market [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1] Core Insights - The supply and demand expectations for lithium and cobalt are reversing, indicating the start of a new price cycle [2][3] - Lithium demand is expected to recover, leading to a replenishment cycle, while supply disruptions will create a medium-term gap [2] - Cobalt supply is dominated by export quotas from sovereign nations, leading to a raw material shortage that supports prices [3] Summary by Sections Lithium - Supply disruptions from African lithium projects and stable production from South American salt lakes are expected, while China's regulatory management will lead to a temporary supply contraction of lithium mica [2] - Demand for lithium is driven by the growth of energy storage as a second growth driver after electric vehicles, with solid-state batteries opening up potential for increased lithium consumption [2] - From the second half of 2025, supply disruptions in Jiangxi and strong downstream demand will lead to a price rebound for lithium, maintaining a tight supply situation through 2026-2027 [2] Cobalt - The supply side is significantly influenced by the export quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo, resulting in a definitive raw material shortage [3] - Demand for cobalt products is currently weak due to high prices, and the recovery of demand hinges on the adoption of solid-state batteries [3] - The Congolese government has a strong ability and willingness to support prices, with expectations for cobalt prices to remain strong in the medium term [3] Investment Strategy - In an upward cycle, it is essential to consider the self-reinforcing attributes of stock prices and commodity prices, alongside fundamental factors [4] - The interplay between stock prices, futures, and spot prices creates a positive feedback loop, where stock prices often react first to anticipated changes [4] Investment Recommendations - Recommended lithium-related stocks include Yongxing Materials, Ganfeng Lithium, and Tianqi Lithium, among others [5] - Recommended cobalt-related stocks include Huayou Cobalt and others [5]