Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is expected to recover in 2026, with a focus on resource products, anti-involution policies, and emerging industries as investment opportunities [3][27] - The industry has shown signs of stabilization and recovery since 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 10.56% in net profit attributable to shareholders in the first three quarters of 2025 [3] - Key sectors identified for investment include oil and gas, potassium fertilizer, phosphorus chemicals, fluorochemicals, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), electronic resins, and certain anti-involution sectors [3] Industry Overview - The petrochemical industry is cyclical, with net profits in the SW basic chemical sector reaching a historical high in 2021, followed by a downturn, with 2024 profits expected to be only 52% of 2021 levels [3] - The supply side has seen a decline in fixed asset investment since June 2025, indicating the end of the current expansion cycle [3] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address low-price competition and promote the orderly exit of outdated capacities, which is expected to alleviate the oversupply issue in the petrochemical sector [3] Demand Dynamics - Traditional demand is anticipated to recover moderately due to global central banks entering a rate-cutting cycle and fiscal stimulus [3] - Emerging demands from sectors such as new energy and AI are expected to drive growth in key chemical materials [3] - The domestic chemical industry is projected to increase its global market share as overseas capacities are cleared out [3] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies for investment in 2026 include China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Yara International, Yuntianhua, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Jiaao Environmental Protection, Zhuoyue New Energy, Shengquan Group, Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, and Xinhecheng [3] Sector Performance - The petrochemical sector's revenue decreased by 7.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, while net profit fell by 11.1% [24] - The basic chemical sector showed a recovery with a 1.9% increase in revenue and an 8.9% increase in net profit [24] - The oilfield services sector was the only sub-sector to achieve growth in both revenue and net profit during this period [24] Price Trends - The China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) has shown a downward trend, with a reported decline of 11.5% from the beginning of the year [13] - The PPI for the chemical industry is expected to show marginal improvement in the second half of 2025, although it remains in a downward trend overall [16] Policy Impact - The "anti-involution" initiative is expected to promote a rebalancing of supply and demand in traditional chemical products, with various sectors responding positively to this policy [27] - Key meetings and documents from government bodies indicate a focus on maintaining growth and regulating new capacity in the petrochemical sector [27]

Core Insights - The biodiesel sector experienced a decline of 4.59% on November 14, with Hai Xin Energy leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3990.49, down 0.97%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13216.03, down 1.93% [1] Stock Performance - International Industrial (000159) closed at 6.85, up 2.24% with a trading volume of 237,400 shares and a transaction value of 163 million [1] - Zhongliang Technology (000930) closed at 6.12, down 0.65% with a trading volume of 153,900 shares and a transaction value of 94.66 million [1] - Pengpeng Environmental (300664) closed at 6.12, down 1.92% with a trading volume of 331,800 shares and a transaction value of 205 million [1] - Excellent New Energy (688196) closed at 61.71, down 4.01% with a trading volume of 25,600 shares and a transaction value of 158 million [1] - Fengbei Biological (603334) closed at 48.30, down 4.03% with a trading volume of 79,100 shares and a transaction value of 38.8 million [1] - Jiaao Environmental (603822) closed at 109.69, down 4.42% with a trading volume of 26,700 shares and a transaction value of 296 million [1] - Shangaohuan Energy (000803) closed at 7.94, down 6.59% with a trading volume of 865,200 shares and a transaction value of 687 million [1] - Hai Xin Energy (300072) closed at 5.56, down 10.03% with a trading volume of 2,447,900 shares and a transaction value of 1.407 billion [1] Capital Flow - The biodiesel sector saw a net outflow of 390 million from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 288 million [1] - The detailed capital flow for individual stocks shows varying trends, with International Industrial seeing a net inflow of 3.08 million from main funds, while Hai Xin Energy experienced a net outflow of 150 million [2]

Core Viewpoint - Jiaao Environmental Technology Co., Ltd. is under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) for suspected violations of information disclosure laws, marking the second such investigation in five years [1] Group 1: Regulatory Actions - The CSRC issued a notice of investigation (case number 01120250018) due to alleged violations of the Securities Law and the Administrative Penalty Law of the People's Republic of China [1] - The company had previously received a warning from the Zhejiang Securities Regulatory Bureau in August 2024 regarding inaccuracies in its financial disclosures for the years 2022 and 2023 [1] - In May 2021, the company was fined 1 million yuan for false reporting of revenue and net profit in its 2019 annual report and subsequent quarterly reports [1] Group 2: Company Operations - Despite the investigation, Jiaao Environmental asserts that its daily operations and business activities are proceeding normally [1] - The company has committed to cooperating with the CSRC and adhering to regulatory requirements for information disclosure [1] Group 3: Investor Implications - Investors who purchased Jiaao Environmental shares before June 23, 2025, and sold or held them after June 24, 2025, may be eligible for compensation [2] - Preliminary compensation claims are based on stock purchases made between the company's listing and June 23, 2025, with specific documentation required for claims [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 104.79 CNY as of November 11 [1]. Core Views - The company is transitioning towards sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production, which is expected to be a key growth driver for future revenues and profits. The SAF project in Lianyungang is projected to significantly enhance the company's profitability and market position [8][9][33]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Jiaao Environmental Protection, is a leading producer of environmentally friendly plasticizers and has recently launched SAF products. It has established a complete industrial chain through strategic acquisitions [12][13]. - The Lianyungang SAF project aims to produce 500,000 tons of biomass energy annually, with the first batch of SAF products expected to be exported in 2025 [8][12][33]. Industry Perspective - 2025 is identified as a pivotal year for the implementation of SAF blending policies across multiple countries, including the EU, UK, and Indonesia, which will drive demand for SAF [9][37]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in SAF demand, with projections indicating that by 2030, China's domestic demand for SAF could reach 2.81 million tons, supported by various national policies [9][37][40]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to generate revenues of 42.23 billion CNY, 64.96 billion CNY, and 97.23 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 0.89 billion CNY, 3.91 billion CNY, and 6.98 billion CNY [9][10]. - The SAF project is projected to yield a net profit of approximately 6.1 billion CNY at full capacity, with significant growth potential as the company expands its production capabilities [34][35].

Core Insights - The biodiesel sector experienced a 3.5% increase on November 12, with Shanggou Huanneng leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4000.14, down 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13240.62, down 0.36% [1] Sector Performance - Shanggou Huanneng (000803) closed at 8.72, up 9.96% with a trading volume of 482,400 shares and a transaction value of 416 million [1] - Jiaao Environmental Protection (603822) closed at 114.00, up 8.79% with a trading volume of 41,500 shares and a transaction value of 463 million [1] - Zhuoyue New Energy (688196) closed at 64.20, up 5.59% with a trading volume of 50,900 shares and a transaction value of 326 million [1] - Pengyao Environmental Protection (300664) closed at 6.28, up 3.80% with a trading volume of 736,200 shares and a transaction value of 464 million [1] - Fengbei Biological (603334) closed at 52.22, up 2.57% with a trading volume of 112,900 shares and a transaction value of 589 million [1] - Hainxinnengke (300072) closed at 5.88, up 0.86% with a trading volume of 3,180,700 shares and a transaction value of 1.872 billion [1] - International Industry (000159) closed at 6.70, up 0.45% with a trading volume of 272,900 shares and a transaction value of 182 million [1] - COFCO Technology (000930) closed at 6.11, up 0.33% with a trading volume of 197,000 shares and a transaction value of 120 million [1] Capital Flow - The biodiesel sector saw a net inflow of 321 million from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 227 million [1] - Main funds for Shanggou Huanneng had a net inflow of 138 million, representing 33.05% of the total [2] - Fengbei Biological had a net inflow of 78.42 million from main funds, accounting for 13.32% [2] - Pengyao Environmental Protection had a net inflow of 72.13 million from main funds, representing 15.54% [2] - Zhuoyue New Energy had a net inflow of 31.32 million from main funds, accounting for 9.60% [2] - Jiaao Environmental Protection had a net inflow of 9.39 million from main funds, representing 2.03% [2] - Hainxinnengke had a minimal net inflow of 234,700 from main funds [2] - COFCO Technology experienced a net outflow of 18.51 million from main funds, representing -15.39% [2]

Group 1 - The stock price of Jiaao Environmental Protection increased by 5.45%, reaching 110.5 yuan per share, marking a new high [1] - The total market capitalization of the company surpassed 8.489 billion yuan [1] - The trading volume amounted to 101 million yuan [1]

Core Insights - The biodiesel sector is experiencing a resurgence, with companies like Langkun Technology and Shango Environmental hitting their daily price limits, while Jiaao Environmental has reached a new historical high with an increase of nearly 8% [1] - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts that by 2050, 65% of carbon reduction in the aviation industry will be achieved through the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) [1] - SAF is projected to reduce carbon emissions by 80% compared to traditional aviation fuels without requiring significant modifications to existing aircraft and aviation infrastructure [1] Company Performance - Langkun Technology and Shango Environmental have both reached their daily trading limits, indicating strong market interest and investor confidence [1] - Jiaao Environmental has achieved a new historical high, reflecting positive market sentiment and potential growth in the biodiesel sector [1] - Other companies such as Pengyao Environmental, Zhuoyue New Energy, and Haineng Technology are also experiencing upward movement in their stock prices, suggesting a broader trend in the industry [1] Industry Outlook - The aviation industry is increasingly focusing on carbon reduction strategies, with SAF playing a crucial role in achieving sustainability goals [1] - The forecast by IATA highlights the significant potential for SAF to transform the aviation fuel landscape, emphasizing the importance of innovation in fuel technology [1] - The anticipated 80% reduction in carbon emissions through SAF usage positions the biodiesel sector as a key player in the transition to greener aviation practices [1]

Core Insights - The European Union (EU) has committed to investing at least €3.3 billion over the next two years to support the decarbonization of the aviation and shipping industries, focusing on the development of renewable and low-carbon fuel production systems [1][3] - The demand for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is primarily driven by policy, with a target of 2% SAF blending by 2025 and a long-term goal of 70% by 2050 [1][2] - The price of high-end SAF in China has increased by 47.22% from $1,800/ton at the beginning of the year to $2,650/ton as of November 10 [1][7] Industry Demand and Policy - The EU has established comprehensive SAF application targets and carbon reduction goals, with the ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation mandating a 2% SAF blending requirement starting in 2025 [2] - IATA projects that SAF demand will rise significantly from approximately 1 million tons in 2024 to 18 million tons by 2030, reaching 350 million tons by 2050 [2] - By 2035, the EU will require about 20 million tons of sustainable alternative fuels, necessitating an investment of approximately €100 billion to meet this demand [2] Investment and Market Confidence - The EU's Sustainable Transport Investment Plan aims to reduce carbon emissions from transportation by 90% by 2050, requiring an investment of around €100 billion, with 60% allocated to aviation fuels [3][4] - The plan includes various funding initiatives, such as €2 billion for developing sustainable alternative fuels and €300 million from the European Hydrogen Bank to support sustainable aviation and shipping fuels [3][4] Market Dynamics and Price Trends - The high cost of SAF compared to traditional jet fuel has led to a general reluctance among airlines to adopt SAF, with major airlines requesting more time to comply with SAF blending mandates [5][6] - As of November 10, the average price of used cooking oil (UCO) in China was 6,448 yuan/ton, reflecting a 17.24% increase from the beginning of the year, driven by the scarcity of SAF raw materials [7] - Neste, a leading renewable fuel company, reported a significant increase in its third-quarter revenue and production, with total renewable fuel production reaching 113.3 million tons and EBITDA growing over 150% year-on-year [8] Investment Recommendations - Companies such as Jiaao Environmental Protection and Zhuoyue New Energy are highlighted as key players in the SAF market, with Jiaao Environmental Protection being a leading domestic SAF producer with a capacity of 500,000 tons [9]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for various sectors within the energy industry, particularly highlighting opportunities in hydropower, green energy, nuclear power, thermal power, and gas sectors [10][30]. Core Insights - The electricity market in the State Grid operating area has achieved near-complete coverage of the electricity spot market, with significant developments in provinces such as Shanxi, which has seen a 128.75% increase in new energy and clean energy installed capacity since the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][9]. - Natural gas prices have shown a divergent trend globally, with increases in Europe and the US, while prices in Asia remain stable due to ample supply [11][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity - The State Grid has implemented a continuous settlement trial for the electricity spot market in Sichuan and Chongqing, marking a significant step towards full coverage [4][7]. - Shanxi's electricity spot market has recorded a total clearing volume of 156.23 billion kWh in the first half of 2025, with real-time average prices reflecting a "two peaks and one valley" pattern [9][10]. 2. Natural Gas - As of November 7, 2025, the Henry Hub spot price in the US reached $3.76/mmBtu, reflecting a weekly increase of 5.52%, while European prices also saw upward trends [11][12]. - The report notes that the LNG national ex-factory price in China is 4382 yuan/ton, with a slight weekly decrease of 0.57% [28][30]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Hydropower: Favorable conditions for winter and spring generation, recommending companies like Guotou Power and Chuan Investment Energy [10]. - Green Energy: Increased stability in returns for existing projects, suggesting attention to companies like New Energy and Longyuan Power [10]. - Nuclear Power: Long-term growth potential remains strong, with recommendations for China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [10]. - Thermal Power: Improved profitability due to lower fuel costs, recommending companies like Guodian Power and Huaneng International [10]. - Gas Sector: Favorable conditions for city gas companies, recommending Kunlun Energy and New Energy [30]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - As of September 2025, China's new energy storage capacity exceeded 100 million kW, accounting for over 40% of the global total [39]. - The report highlights the steady growth in electricity market transactions, with a total of 4.92 trillion kWh traded by September 2025, marking a 7.2% year-on-year increase [39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry, indicating expected performance above the market average [2][29]. Core Insights - The European Union (EU) has launched a €3.3 billion investment plan to support the decarbonization of the aviation and shipping sectors, focusing on the development of renewable and low-carbon fuel production systems [3][10]. - The demand for SAF is primarily driven by policy initiatives, with the EU aiming for a 2% blending target by 2025 and a long-term goal of 70% by 2050. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects SAF demand to reach 358 million tons by 2050, indicating significant growth potential [4][6]. - The EU's ambitious decarbonization goals necessitate an estimated €100 billion investment by 2035 to meet future SAF demand, with the recent investment plan signaling a commitment to stabilize investor confidence [4][10]. Summary by Sections Investment Plan and Policy Framework - The EU's Sustainable Transport Investment Plan (STIP) outlines a roadmap for promoting the use of renewable and low-carbon fuels, aiming for a 90% reduction in transport-related carbon emissions by 2050 [10][14]. - The plan includes specific investment allocations, such as €2 billion for developing sustainable alternative fuels and €1.53 billion for synthetic aviation fuels [14][16]. Market Dynamics and Pricing - SAF prices have surged due to high production costs compared to traditional jet fuel, with the price of high-end SAF in China reaching $2,650 per ton as of November 10, 2023, a 47.22% increase from the beginning of the year [4][18]. - The scarcity of SAF raw materials, such as used cooking oil (UCO), is expected to sustain high market demand and pricing [4][18]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies like Jiaao Environmental and Excellent New Energy, which are positioned as leaders in the SAF market with significant production capacities [5][23]. - Jiaao Environmental has a SAF production capacity of 500,000 tons and has received export licenses, while Excellent New Energy is expanding its biodiesel and SAF production capabilities [5][23].