香港联交所最新数据显示，1月16日，上海景林资产管理有限公司减持兆易创新（603986）(03986)20.31 万股，每股作价241.7306港元，总金额约为4909.55万港元。减持后最新持股数目为169.63万股，最新持 股比例为5.87%。 本交易涉及关联方：Xizang Jingning Corporate Management Company Limited、蒋锦志。 ...

[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|电子 2026 年 1 月 26 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] AI 的 Memory 时刻 5 | | | | AI NAND | 供需紧张，涨价仍有弹性 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师： [Tabl | 王亮 | 分析师： | 耿正 | 分析师： | 焦鼎 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260519060001 | | SAC 执证号：S0260520090002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260522120003 | | | SFC CE.no: BFS478 | | | | | | | 021-38003658 | | 021-38003660 | | 021-38003658 | | | gfwangliang@gf.com.cn | | gengzheng@gf.com.cn | | jiaoding@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 张大伟 | | | | | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523050001 | | | | | | | 02 ...

本文源自：金融界AI电报 港股半导体概念走低，天数智芯跌超5%，英诺赛科跌超4%，中芯国际、兆易创新跌超3%，上海复旦、 华虹半导体跌超2%。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Zhaoyi Innovation (兆易创新) has announced a capital increase of 500 million yuan to its wholly-owned subsidiary, Zhuhai Hengqin Chip Storage Semiconductor Co., Ltd., to support DRAM chip research and industrialization projects [1] - The company’s stock opened over 4% higher and is currently trading at 329.8 HKD with a transaction volume of 2.0777 million HKD [1] - The capital increase will not change the investment direction or project construction content of the raised funds [1] Group 2 - Zhaoyi Innovation's first self-branded 4Gb DDR4 product, the GDQ2BFAA series, has entered mass production, achieving full domestic production from design to testing and validation [1] - The company plans to accelerate the layout of its DRAM product line, launching various capacity series products with different interfaces, including DDR3 and DDR4, to provide comprehensive solutions for consumer platforms [1] - The Vice President and General Manager of the DRAM Division stated that the company aims to explore more possibilities in the industry through a wide range of products and diversified solutions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhaoyi Innovation, is experiencing a positive market response with a stock price increase of 4.43% to 329.8 HKD, following the announcement of a significant capital increase for its subsidiaries aimed at advancing DRAM chip development and industrialization [1] Group 1: Company Actions - Zhaoyi Innovation announced a capital increase of 500 million CNY to its wholly-owned subsidiary, Zhuhai Hengqin Chip Storage Semiconductor Co., Ltd [1] - The capital will also be allocated to its wholly-owned subsidiaries, Hefei Chip Storage Semiconductor Co., Ltd and Xi'an Chip Storage Semiconductor Co., Ltd, with increases of 30 million CNY and 50 million CNY respectively [1] - This capital increase is intended to support the implementation of DRAM chip research and industrialization projects without altering the investment direction or project construction content of the raised funds [1] Group 2: Product Development - The company has successfully mass-produced its first self-branded 4Gb DDR4 product, the GDQ2BFAA series, achieving full domestic production from design to testing and validation [1] - The Vice President and General Manager of the DRAM Division stated that the company will accelerate the layout of its DRAM product line, introducing various capacity series products with DDR3 and DDR4 interfaces [1] - The aim is to provide comprehensive solutions for various applications in consumer platforms, thereby opening up more possibilities for the industry through a diverse range of products and solutions [1]

Group 1: Fixed Income Insights - The demand for bank bonds has increased due to rising bond yields, making them more attractive compared to loan interest rates, leading to sustained buying from institutional investors [12] - Wealth management products have shown a significant increase in scale, with a notable shift towards deposits, while there has been a reduction in bond holdings, particularly in interest rate bonds [14] - The one-year interest rate has decreased to 1.6%, indicating a trend of net repayment of certificates of deposit [15] Group 2: Real Estate Market Analysis - The second-hand housing market has shown improvement with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 7.3%, while new home sales continue to weaken with a year-on-year drop of 38.6% [5] - In 2025, new home prices fell by 3.0% and second-hand home prices dropped by 6.1%, with significant declines across all city tiers [24][25] - The report suggests that the real estate sector remains a key economic indicator, with potential for recovery driven by policy changes and market dynamics [26] Group 3: Commodity Market Trends - The price of Brent crude oil has increased by 5.4%, while copper and coking coal prices have risen by 2.1% and 3.4% respectively, indicating a general upward trend in major commodity prices [5] - The coal market is experiencing a dual weakness in supply and demand, with prices stabilizing as winter demand begins to wane [28] - The silver price has recently surpassed $100, indicating a bullish trend in precious metals, while other metals like nickel and lithium are also showing upward momentum [23] Group 4: Consumer and Retail Sector Developments - The consumer sector is expected to benefit from policy support and improving fundamentals, particularly in new retail and service sectors [19] - Key retail segments such as hotels and duty-free shops are projected to see growth, with specific companies recommended for investment [20] - The report highlights the importance of domestic consumption and the potential for brands to expand internationally, with a focus on companies that have established competitive advantages [19]

Core Viewpoint - The leading chip design company, Zhaoyi Innovation (603986.SH), continues to experience growth in its operating performance, with projected revenue and net profit for 2025 showing significant increases compared to previous years [2][3]. Financial Performance - Zhaoyi Innovation expects to achieve approximately 9.2 billion yuan in revenue for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 25% [2][3]. - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of around 1.61 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 46% [2][3]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenues of 6.83 billion yuan, net profit of 1.08 billion yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 1.04 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.92%, 30.18%, and 34.04% respectively [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The growth in performance is attributed to technological advancements, optimization of industry structure, and effective implementation of company strategies, alongside a steady upturn in the storage industry cycle [5]. - The demand for products in sectors such as PC, servers, and automotive electronics has significantly increased due to accelerated AI computing power construction [5]. Historical Context - Zhaoyi Innovation's revenue and net profit saw substantial growth in 2020 and 2021, with revenues of 4.5 billion yuan and 8.51 billion yuan, and net profits of 0.88 billion yuan and 2.34 billion yuan, respectively [5]. - However, in 2022 and 2023, the company faced declines in revenue and net profit due to global economic conditions and industry cycles, with revenues of 8.13 billion yuan and 5.76 billion yuan, and net profits of 2.05 billion yuan and 0.16 billion yuan [6]. Strategic Positioning - Zhaoyi Innovation aims to maintain a core development goal centered on market share, continuously diversifying its product portfolio and seeking synergistic effects [7][9]. - The company has made significant acquisitions since its listing, enhancing its market position and becoming a leading global fabless chip supplier [9]. Research and Development - The company has consistently increased its R&D investment, with expenditures of 1.03 billion yuan and 1.07 billion yuan in 2022 and 2023, respectively, and 1.26 billion yuan and 0.86 billion yuan in 2024 and the first three quarters of 2025 [10]. - As of mid-2025, Zhaoyi Innovation holds 1,085 authorized patents, along with various trademarks and copyrights, indicating a strong intellectual property position [10]. Market Presence - Approximately 70% of Zhaoyi Innovation's revenue comes from international markets, highlighting its global competitive engagement [11]. - The company's stock has performed well in the secondary market, with a price increase of about 200 yuan per share over the past year, leading to a market capitalization of 210 billion yuan [11].

Market Performance - The market experienced fluctuations last week, with the China Securities Index closing at 2027.72 points, down 1.56% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.11%. The ChiNext Index fell by 0.34%, and the CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.62% [1] - Notable strong performers included Lanke Technology, Huayi Group, and Salt Lake Shares, with increases of 12.22%, 8.38%, and 7.62% respectively [1] Year-to-Date Performance - Since the beginning of 2026, notable stock performances include: - Zhaoyi Innovation up 38.74% - Lanke Technology up 35.84% - Anji Technology up 35.28% [2] - Other companies such as Zhongwei Company and Changdian Technology have also seen increases of over 30% [2] Market Sentiment and Trends - Market sentiment is relatively stable, with active funds seeking investment opportunities despite outflows from broad market indices [2] - The market style has shown signs of balance, with cyclical sectors performing notably well [2] - The current market is in a mid-uptrend phase, with expectations for a spring rally and strong overall market activity [2] Investment Strategy - Current A-shares are in a mid-uptrend phase, with attractive valuations and no signs of bubble formation [3] - Structural opportunities in 2026 are focused on five major "hard asset" directions: technology innovation, biomedicine, resource supply-side reversal, gold, and high-dividend assets [3] - Investment strategies emphasize holding hard assets, maintaining a high position, and focusing on globally competitive and scarce supply areas [3]

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating an expectation of stock performance exceeding the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [31]. Core Insights - The demand for CPU is increasing due to AI agents, driven by three main factors: increased application call volume, orchestration becoming a bottleneck, and elevated overhead from sandbox isolation [2][11]. - The CPU ratio is expected to rise, with projections indicating that by Q2 2026, the CPU ratio per MW of GPU will increase from below 10% to 15% [2][17]. - There is significant growth potential in memory modules and interface chips, with a shift from traditional RDIMM to MRDIMM expected to enhance performance and capacity [2][19]. - The value of AI memory is transitioning from a cost item to an asset item, highlighting the increasing importance of related upstream infrastructure [2][25]. Summary by Sections AI Agent's Impact on CPU Demand - AI agents are driving a substantial increase in CPU demand due to higher application call volumes, orchestration challenges, and increased overhead from sandboxing [2][11]. Increasing CPU Ratio - Current estimates suggest that the CPU ratio per MW of GPU will rise to 15% by Q2 2026, with significant implications for the overall demand for CPUs in AI clusters [2][17]. Expanding Memory and Interface Chip Market - The transition to MRDIMM solutions is expected to significantly enhance bandwidth and capacity, creating opportunities in the memory and interface chip markets [2][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of AI memory as a foundational capability for AI applications, recommending a focus on key beneficiaries within the industry chain [2][25].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a "steady rise" from January 19 to 23, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.84% to reach 4100 points, marking a new high since 2015 [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index rose by 1.11% and 2.62%, respectively, indicating a trend of "moderate index growth and accelerated capital inflow" [2] - The core driving force behind this market rally is identified as a combination of "policy support, capital inflow, and industrial trends" [2] Sector Performance - Cyclical and technology stocks acted as "dual drivers," with sectors such as building materials, steel, and chemicals seeing gains of over 5% [2] - Commercial aerospace concept stocks led the market due to favorable industry developments, while banking and non-bank financial sectors experienced declines [2] Policy and Regulation - The China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Asset Management Association of China jointly released performance benchmark guidelines aimed at addressing issues like "style drift" and "fund blind boxes," marking the beginning of a reshaping of the public fund ecosystem [2] Investment Trends - Institutional research focused on three main areas: commercial aerospace, metal mining, and storage chips, with significant interest in companies like Daikin Heavy Industries and Naipu Mining [3] - The MSCI Metals and Mining Index has surged nearly 90% year-to-date, driven by soaring global metal demand and tightening supply of key minerals [3] - Gold prices are projected to rise further, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a price of $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2026, indicating an 8% upside from current levels [3] Commercial Aerospace Developments - The commercial aerospace sector saw a resurgence after a volatile January, with significant domestic and international positive developments [4] - The financing total for the industry is expected to reach 18.6 billion yuan in 2025, a 32% year-on-year increase, as multiple companies initiate their IPO processes [4] - The global satellite count exceeds 12,000, with China's commercial aerospace sector aiming to capture technological transformation opportunities through "new space infrastructure" [4] Market Outlook - Institutions generally expect a "slow bull" market to continue, although caution is advised regarding short-term valuation correction risks [4] - Analysts predict that the A-share market will maintain a trend of oscillating upward, with accelerated sector rotation focusing on cyclical recovery and hard technology growth [4]