洛阳栾川钼业集团股份有限公司 2025 年度跟踪评级报告 编号：信评委函字[2025]跟踪 0206 号 洛阳栾川钼业集团股份有限公司 2025 年度跟踪评级报告 声 明 中诚信国际信用评级有限责任公司 2025 年 5 月 21 日 2 本次评级为委托评级，中诚信国际及其评估人员与评级委托方、评级对象不存在任何其他影响本次评级行为独立、 客观、公正的关联关系。 本次评级依据评级对象提供或已经正式对外公布的信息，以及其他根据监管规定收集的信息，中诚信国际按照相关 性、及时性、可靠性的原则对评级信息进行审慎分析，但中诚信国际对于相关信息的合法性、真实性、完整性、准 确性不作任何保证。 中诚信国际及项目人员履行了尽职调查和诚信义务，有充分理由保证本次评级遵循了真实、客观、公正的原则。 评级报告的评级结论是中诚信国际依据合理的内部信用评级标准和方法、评级程序做出的独立判断，未受评级委托 方、评级对象和其他第三方的干预和影响。 本评级报告对评级对象信用状况的任何表述和判断仅作为相关决策参考之用，并不意味着中诚信国际实质性建议任 何使用人据此报告采取投资、借贷等交易行为，也不能作为任何人购买、出售或持有相关金融产品的依 ...

洛阳栾川钼业集团股份有限公司 跟踪评级报告(2025) 编号：信评委函字[2025]跟踪 0205 号 洛阳栾川钼业集团股份有限公司 跟踪评级报告(2025) 声 明 中诚信国际信用评级有限责任公司 2025 年 5 月 21 日 2 本次评级为委托评级，中诚信国际及其评估人员与评级委托方、评级对象不存在任何其他影响本次评级行为独立、 客观、公正的关联关系。 本次评级依据评级对象提供或已经正式对外公布的信息，以及其他根据监管规定收集的信息，中诚信国际按照相关 性、及时性、可靠性的原则对评级信息进行审慎分析，但中诚信国际对于相关信息的合法性、真实性、完整性、准 确性不作任何保证。 中诚信国际及项目人员履行了尽职调查和诚信义务，有充分理由保证本次评级遵循了真实、客观、公正的原则。 评级报告的评级结论是中诚信国际依据合理的内部信用评级标准和方法、评级程序做出的独立判断，未受评级委托 方、评级对象和其他第三方的干预和影响。 本评级报告对评级对象信用状况的任何表述和判断仅作为相关决策参考之用，并不意味着中诚信国际实质性建议任 何使用人据此报告采取投资、借贷等交易行为，也不能作为任何人购买、出售或持有相关金融产品的依据。 ...

截至5月21日收盘，黄金概念上涨2.06%，位居概念板块涨幅第3，板块内，54股上涨，莱绅通灵、西部 黄金等涨停，晓程科技、曼卡龙、潮宏基等涨幅居前，分别上涨11.68%、9.52%、8.33%。跌幅居前的 有恒星科技、ST金一、益民集团等，分别下跌1.78%、1.03%、0.90%。 | 002155 | 湖南黄 | 2.67 | 5.23 | 5230.33 | 3.64 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 金 | | | | | | 002731 | 萃华珠 | 6.67 | 18.25 | 4425.73 | 9.23 | | | 宝 | | | | | | 600490 | 鹏欣资 | 2.74 | 4.59 | 4405.71 | 10.83 | | | 源 | | | | | | 002345 | 潮宏基 | 8.33 | 10.78 | 4117.19 | 3.71 | | 600459 | 贵研铂 | 3.26 | 2.79 | 3408.46 | 11.67 | | | 业 | | | | | | 002237 | 恒邦股 份 | 2.6 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper industry is facing a structural shift characterized by a rigid supply shortage at the mining end, excess smelting capacity, and a transition between old and new demand drivers, leading to a long-term upward trend in copper prices [19][24][25]. Group 1: Upstream Resources (Mining and Recycling) - Global copper reserves are approximately 980 million tons, with a mining lifespan of about 40 years based on current production levels [32]. - In 2024, global copper mine production is expected to reach 23 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 1.8% [35]. - China's copper mine production is projected at 1.8 million tons in 2024, a decline of 1.1% year-on-year, primarily due to resource depletion and environmental restrictions [42][46]. Group 2: Recycling Sector (Recycled Copper) - The recycled copper market is supported by national strategies, aiming for a production target of 4 million tons by 2025, with recycled metal supply accounting for over 24% [4]. - In 2024, China is expected to import 2.25 million tons of scrap copper, with domestic recycling capacity reaching 2.49 million tons [5][48]. - The price of recycled copper is projected to show significant fluctuations, with an average price of 70,400 yuan per ton in 2024 [5]. Group 3: Midstream Smelting - The global refined copper production in 2024 is estimated at 27.634 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [9]. - China is the largest producer of refined copper, accounting for 49.9% of global production in 2024, with a projected output of 13.644 million tons [10]. - The smelting industry is experiencing a decline in processing fees, with long-term contracts expected to drop to $21.25 per ton by 2025, significantly below the breakeven point [8][20]. Group 4: Midstream Processing (Copper Products) - In 2024, China's copper processing output is expected to reach 23.503 million tons, representing over 50% of global production [11]. - The industry is characterized by low concentration, with the top five companies holding only 30% of the market share [11]. - The demand for high-end copper products is increasing, driven by the growth in new energy and infrastructure sectors [12][13]. Group 5: Downstream Demand (End Applications) - Global refined copper consumption in 2024 is projected at 27.33 million tons, with China accounting for 58% of this demand [14]. - The demand structure in China shows that electricity and power grids account for 46% of refined copper consumption, while new energy applications are rapidly growing [15]. - The transition from traditional to new energy applications is expected to drive significant growth in copper demand, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy [19][21]. Group 6: Supply and Demand Balance - The global refined copper supply-demand balance is expected to show a surplus of 19,000 tons in 2025, a decrease from the previous year's surplus of 30,200 tons [16]. - China's refined copper consumption is projected to grow by 2.9% in 2025, reaching 16.21 million tons, driven by new energy infrastructure investments [18]. - The copper market is anticipated to face a tightening supply situation due to the rigid shortage of mining resources and the acceleration of smelting capacity clearance [19][20]. Group 7: Investment Recommendations - Key investment opportunities include resource leaders like Zijin Mining and Longyan Copper, which are positioned to benefit from global resource control [21]. - Smelting leaders such as Jiangxi Copper are expected to gain from policy-driven supply-side reforms and the elimination of inefficient capacity [20]. - Companies focusing on high-end processing and recycled copper, such as Hailiang Co. and Gree Environmental, are likely to benefit from technological advancements and policy support [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the lithium and cobalt industry [2][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a return to weak realities from strong expectations in the cobalt and lithium markets, with prices rebounding before retreating [14][15]. - The easing of US-China trade relations is expected to buffer the downward trend in lithium prices, although the overall market remains cautious [14][15]. - Cobalt market dynamics are characterized by a tightening supply and a cautious outlook from industry players, with many adopting a wait-and-see approach [16]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The lithium sector is experiencing a slight price decline, with the Wuxi 2507 contract down 1.57% to 62,600 CNY/ton, and the Guangxi 2507 contract down 1.94% to 61,800 CNY/ton [14]. - Lithium concentrate prices have decreased to 712 USD/ton, down 13 USD/ton from the previous period [14]. - Recommended stocks for overweight positions include Zhongmin Resources, Yahua Group, Cangge Mining, Ganfeng Lithium, Keda Manufacturing, and Tibet Mining [14]. 2. Company and Industry Dynamics Tracking - The report notes significant developments in the industry, including a major discovery at the Tamarack copper-nickel project in Minnesota [19]. - The International Cobalt Institute predicts a shift to a cobalt shortage by the early 2030s, driven by demand growth outpacing supply [19]. - Salt Lake Co. has signed a project cooperation letter indicating a potential investment of around 300 million USD in Highfield Resources [19]. 3. Key Data: New Energy Material Production, Imports, and Metal Prices - Domestic production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide saw a month-on-month decline in April [20]. - Lithium carbonate production decreased by 7% month-on-month but increased by 40% year-on-year [22]. - Cobalt sulfate production increased by 11% month-on-month and 48% year-on-year [23]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 2.15% to a range of 66,100-64,600 CNY/ton [57]. 4. Listed Company Profit Forecasts - Ganfeng Lithium is projected to have a PE ratio of 86.06 for 2025, while Tianqi Lithium is rated cautiously with a PE of 58.30 for 2025 [94]. - Huayou Cobalt is rated for an overweight position with a PE of 11.79 for 2025 [94].

Summary of Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call pertains to Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd., a significant player in the copper and cobalt mining industry, with a focus on its production capabilities and financial performance for 2024 and 2025 [2][3][5]. Key Points and Arguments Production and Resource Allocation - Luoyang Molybdenum's copper production is projected to reach 650,000 tons in 2024 and 680,000 tons in 2025, exceeding the annual guidance of 600,000 to 660,000 tons [2][3]. - The company ranks approximately 11th to 12th globally in copper resources, with its production placing it among the top ten for the first time, making it the second Chinese company to achieve this [2][3]. - The company has significant copper resources totaling nearly 35 million tons, primarily from the TFM and KFM mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo [3]. Business Segment Profitability - The gross profit margin distribution for 2024 is as follows: copper mining accounts for nearly 70%, IXM trading company 14%, domestic molybdenum and tungsten approximately 10%, and Brazilian phosphate 6% [2][4]. - The main growth drivers are the copper and cobalt segments, along with the IXM trading company [2][4]. Strategic Advantages - Luoyang Molybdenum benefits from high-quality copper resources, with TFM being the fifth-largest copper mine and the second-largest cobalt mine globally, and KFM being the largest single copper-cobalt mine [7]. - The company has adopted a mining plus trading model through the acquisition of IXM, enhancing its pricing power in the industrial metals sector [7]. - As a large-cap private enterprise in the A-share non-ferrous metal sector, it is well-positioned for overseas expansion amid increasing geopolitical tensions [7]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue exceeding 200 billion yuan, a 14% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 13.532 billion yuan, up 64.03% [5][9]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a profit of 3.946 billion yuan, a 90.47% increase year-on-year, with copper production reaching 170,000 tons [5][9]. - The forecast for 2025 net profit is 15.913 billion yuan, representing a 17% growth, with a current P/E ratio of less than 10, indicating high investment value [5][12]. Market Impact and Future Outlook - The suspension of strategic mineral exports by the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to reduce available inventory and potentially increase product prices, positively impacting Luoyang Molybdenum in the short term [8]. - If a cobalt quota system is implemented, the company may experience a reduction in volume but an increase in price, significantly enhancing profitability [8]. Management and Growth Strategy - The company aims for copper production to exceed 600,000 tons in 2025, with a long-term goal of reaching 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons by 2028, supported by the TFM West and KFM Phase II projects [6][13]. - Recent acquisitions, such as Lumina Mining, are expected to contribute an average annual production of 10.5 tons of gold and 19,000 tons of copper, enhancing the company's valuation [6][13]. Additional Important Information - The company suggests analyzing sales confirmation over a six-month period due to potential timing discrepancies in sales recognition, which can provide a clearer view of production and sales balance [10]. - Financial expenses and tax rates have improved, with the financial expense ratio dropping to 1.16% and the tax rate decreasing to 30%, contributing to enhanced profit margins [11].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The macro sentiment is improving, leading to a recovery in base metal prices, particularly copper and aluminum [1][10] - Gold prices are under pressure due to easing risk sentiment and trade negotiations between the US and China [2][25] - Supply tightness is pushing tungsten prices higher, while other small metals show mixed trends [3][43] Summary by Sections Base and Precious Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices are fluctuating at high levels, with social inventory showing signs of recovery. The current inventory level is low, but demand is weakening as it enters the off-season [1][13] - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices have rebounded, supported by improved macro sentiment and declining social inventory. The theoretical operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry has slightly increased [1][20] - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices have decreased by 3.54% to an average of 768.56 CNY/g, while silver prices fell by 1.13% to 8111 CNY/kg. The easing of trade tensions has limited gold's rebound potential [2][25] Minor Metals - **Tungsten**: Prices for tungsten have increased due to supply tightness, with black tungsten concentrate averaging 161,500 CNY/ton, up by 8,000 CNY/ton. The market is cautious due to high prices and limited low-cost supply [3][63] - **Lithium**: The lithium market remains stable with prices holding steady, but demand is weak, leading to a supply surplus [43][43] - **Cobalt**: Cobalt prices are stable, with limited trading activity due to cautious market sentiment and reduced purchasing intentions from downstream manufacturers [45][46] Rare Earths - **Light Rare Earths**: Prices for light rare earths, such as praseodymium and neodymium, have increased by 2.6% to 434,000 CNY/ton, supported by improving macro conditions and easing export controls [4][4] Other Metals - **Molybdenum**: The molybdenum market is stable with slight price increases, but the overall market remains cautious with limited trading activity [68][69]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [4][5]. Core Insights - The easing of US-China trade tensions has led to a rebound in industrial metal prices, with significant reductions in tariffs announced for both sides [2][4]. - The report highlights a mixed demand outlook for aluminum, with domestic production nearing capacity limits while demand from the construction sector remains weak [2][14]. - For energy metals, cobalt supply tightness is expected to increase due to ongoing export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo, while lithium prices are under pressure from high inventory levels [3][4]. - Precious metals are experiencing short-term price corrections but are expected to perform well in the medium to long term due to central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions [4][67]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - Aluminum prices have seen a weekly increase of 2.75%, with domestic production costs rising due to recovering alumina prices [10][14]. - Copper prices remained stable, with a slight weekly change of 0.01%, while copper concentrate imports reached a historical high [2][36]. - Zinc prices increased by 1.15% this week, driven by improved market sentiment following US-China trade negotiations [10][44]. Precious Metals - Gold prices have corrected by 3.72% due to reduced demand for safe-haven assets amid easing trade tensions, while silver prices have shown a smaller decline of 0.37% [10][67]. - The report anticipates a long-term upward trend for gold prices, supported by central bank purchases and ongoing geopolitical risks [4][67]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo, while lithium prices are under pressure from high inventory levels [3][4]. - Nickel prices have shown a slight increase of 0.7%, but the overall market remains cautious due to weak demand and high inventory levels [55][57]. Recommended Companies - Key companies recommended in the report include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Huayou Cobalt, and several others in the non-ferrous metals sector [4][5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the metal industry is expected to see steady profit growth in 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, with gold, rare earths, and copper leading the sectors, while industry valuations are low and dividend returns are improving [1] - The performance of the colored ETF and its constituent stocks, such as Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold, is positively influenced by the sentiment boost from the research report [1] - Recent US-China tariff negotiations have exceeded expectations, leading to a return to fundamentals for the colored sector, with tungsten prices rising due to quota reductions, while gold is under pressure from a decrease in safe-haven sentiment [1] Group 2 - The report from CITIC Securities suggests focusing on investment opportunities in gold, rare earths, copper, and aluminum due to favorable market conditions [1] - The analysis from Huachuang Securities highlights that the reform in the public fund industry may enhance the competitiveness of niche products, indirectly benefiting the ecosystem of thematic ETFs [1] - The performance of related stocks such as Jintian Copper and Zijin Mining is expected to be influenced by the anticipated benefits from the easing of export restrictions and rising overseas prices [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry for 2025 [2] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry has experienced a qualitative change in profit quality, with significant growth in revenue and net profit over the past decade [4][19] - The industry is expected to continue benefiting from a tightening supply-demand structure, interest rate cuts, and favorable policy cycles [5][10] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance and Profit Growth - From 2015 to 2024, the non-ferrous metals industry achieved total revenue of 3,407.5 billion yuan, a 205% increase over ten years, and a net profit of 138.4 billion yuan, a staggering 4,691% increase [4][19] - The net profit surged from 15.7 billion yuan in 2019 to 181.8 billion yuan in 2022, marking a 1,062% increase during the global quantitative easing period [4][19] - In 2024, revenue growth accelerated to 5.86%, and net profit growth improved to 1.77%, compared to 2023's revenue growth of 1.5% and a net profit decline of 25.21% [4][19] 2. Price Trends in 2024 - Industrial metal prices generally increased due to a tight supply-demand structure, with zinc leading the rise at 20.1%, while nickel prices fell by 2.5% due to oversupply [5][31] - Precious metals saw significant price increases, with gold prices rising by 27.8% and silver by 24.8% [5][33] - Small metals exhibited mixed price movements, with cobalt prices dropping by 23.6% and antimony prices increasing by 72.6% [5][34] 3. Profitability and Industry Concentration - The profitability of the non-ferrous metals industry improved, with gross margins for industrial and precious metals rising to 10.03% and 12.95%, respectively [6][50] - The concentration of profits has increased, with the top ten companies accounting for 64% of net profits, up from 45% [6][60] - The top ten companies' net profits grew by 39%, significantly outpacing the overall industry net profit decline of 1% [6][60] 4. Fund Allocation Trends - The fund allocation in the non-ferrous metals sector reached a historical high of 5.43% in Q1 2024, before dropping to 2.85% by Q4 due to economic weakness and declining demand [7][9] - In Q1 2025, the allocation increased again to 4.34%, driven primarily by industrial and precious metals [9][10] 5. Outlook for 2025 - The copper sector is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, with a significant reduction in long-term contract prices [10] - Gold is anticipated to benefit from heightened geopolitical risks and increased central bank purchases, leading to a sustained high demand [10] - The rare earth sector is showing signs of improvement due to supply-side reforms and increased demand from new energy and military sectors [10][35]